This Week's Obsession: Fall Practice Wish List, Defense
Previously: "What do you want to hear from 'fall' practice?" the offense.
Ace: IT’S FINALLY TIME FOR THE BOLDED DEFENSE SECTION
Brian: /waves tiny flag
Defensive Tackle
Ace: Please send tackles.
BiSB: I don't even have Outrageous Spring DT Practice Hype to keep me warm here.
Brian: It is difficult to overstate how much Michigan needs to hit on both Hinton and Mazi Smith right now. You've got Kemp, and then nothing. Dwumfour: gone. Jeter: seemingly stuck behind a walk-on. Literally every other scholarship DT on the roster is either a freshman or a DE who doesn't seem like a natural fit at DT.
Ace: Yeah, I love Julius “Moguls” Welschof but it seems unlikely he’s the answer at three-tech.
The good news is Hinton and Smith were both high school All-Americans and it usually takes a year for DTs to be reliable. The bad news is even if both are reliable and good, they still need another guy to emerge. Getting through a whole season with a three-man DT rotation is asking a lot.
BiSB: How much does Hutchinson slide down?
Brian: I guess it's possible but I don't think hearing that he's kicked down is going to make me feel better.
Ace: Yeah, you can do that on passing downs but as an every-down situation that’s asking to get punched in the face over and over.
Brian: Listed at 6'6" on the roster.
Ace: Paye seems like a better interior candidate but I have similar concerns. So… is this a 3-3-5 year?
Brian: Don't see how that's going to be more viable this year than last since you don't even have the NFL-level SAM LB.
Ace: True. Still lacking a nose you’d want holding up to constant doubles unless Smith really breaks out, too.
Brian: The hypothetical idea with the 3-3-5 is that you're using a LB as a roving DL and hoping that momentum and surprise make up for a lack of mass. It's inherently an underdog defense. So I would take lots of 3-3-5 chatter as a negative.
BiSB: It may not be an every-down solution, but if they're trying to find a way to steal backup DT snaps as opposed to papering over a lack of starter talent, life could be worse.
Seth: You're not using Hutchinson or Paye inside on standard downs unless you're in a Jibreel Black desperation situation. Carlo Kemp is already that.
Brian: So what do you actually want to hear? That is the prompt.
[After THE JUMP: Feed the line, Barrett murder, everybody gets colitis]
"Mazi Smith's light went on" is the most important thing to hear from camp [Patrick Barron]
Seth: Obviously that Hinton is killing it, and Mazi is right up there in a three-man rotation with Kemp. They're not going to throw Kemp behind the young guys even if they're better. We're confident about the offensive line, but chatter about how everyone on the interior is a superstar is just going to convince me it's the DTs.
Brian: I will take interior OL trepidation. That's where we're at.
Ace: I’d like to hear about a grad transfer DT, to be honest.
Brian: Probably too late for that, but yes Mike Danna, DT Edition, would be amazing
Ace: Even if it’s Just A Guy, they could use a JAG if they’re big enough.
BiSB: Somehow, it's still only June. It could happen.
Ace: Plus nobody’s been through practice and realized they’re not getting the playing time they want. The timing of everything is going to be weird this year.
Seth: Would it be too early for at least some hint of good news from the Build-a-DT program? Hey, this Michael Morris kid showed up to camp at 290 and plays like a bear! (Alternatively: this bear showed up to camp so we gave him Morris’s uniform, and Nua’s teaching him paw technique).
Brian: If we hear anything about those guys I'm going in the bunker. They cannot be good at this point. Or anywhere near it. The only "he's putting it together" candidate I will accept is Jeter.
Ace: I’d like to hear positive weight news—it’d be great if Kris Jenkins showed up looking like a DT—but if the young bucks are seeing the field it’s panic time.
It's time to hear about Upshaw and Ojabo. [Barron]
Brian: The only other DL thing I want to hear is Ojabo comin'.
Seth: Specifically that they want to get Ojabo and/or Vilain involved in packages because their edge rush is awesome.
Ace: I’d also accept “Hutchinson is giving Jalen Mayfield trouble” because we’ve got a pretty solid baseline for Mayfield as a pass protector.
BiSB: I'd actually prefer "literally anyone behind Hutchinson is holding up at all." Depth at Anchor is pretty disconcerting.
Ace: Sure, I’m just looking for high-level edge rush from somewhere.
Seth: They were already talking about Upshaw during the bowl practices.
Brian: Michigan's starting two anchor ends so a WDE coming through also counts as anchor depth.
Ace: I’m much more concerned with WDE than anchor. They have so many anchor-types.
BiSB: But among guy we've seen at all, those anchor-types have to come from a very large role at either End or 3T.
Ace: I don’t think sliding, say, Welschof back to anchor does much to hurt DT depth. Those spots are pretty interchangeable, too. Guys can cover both.
Brian: They're in a spot where getting either an anchor or a WDE coming up means they've got good depth; as worries go this one is minimal. Speaking of minimal worries,
What do you want to hear about the linebackers?
"Ross doesn't have to face Army this year" basically. [Bryan Fuller]
Seth: Skipping viper for a moment, Ross and McGrone are healthy, period. Fill in with whatever nice things you want to say about freshmen, redshirted or otherwise.
BiSB: Cam McGrone loves Mr. Spots so much he wants to hang out in Ann Arbor for two more years.
Brian: I want to hear about Michael Barrett being Khaleke Hudson, but violent. Barrett really popped out in third-string time at the end of last year's spring game because he brought the wood. He seems to have viper locked down. I'm ready for a lot of Michael Barrett yelling.
Seth: That's already happening. What hasn't happened yet is much of the Anthony Solomon chatter I was hoping for. I'm a modernist; given Barrett's a fixture I want to hear about the sweet double-viper stuff they're doing with Solomon because he can play any position on the safety-linebacker spectrum.
Ace: Ross was disappointing last year compared to the trajectory he appeared to be on. I still haven’t lost hope that he’ll be what I thought his brother was going to be, but bigger. Hopefully having more positional certainty with McGrone locked in as the MIKE will help.
Brian: IIRC he had a bad game against a triple option and then was mostly hurt until McGrone was locked in as Bush 2.0. Most of his playing time is still his very good sophomore year.
Seth: I think I read they were putting Ross at MIKE since they liked having a safety-like WILL last year in Glasgow and want to get McGrone more involved in blitzes.
BiSB: I would remind everyone that Charles Thomas was the Sleeper of the Year, so we're going to need to see something from him this year.
Ace: I was waiting for Brian to bring up his track record.
Brian: Thomas was almost SotY by default, that class had almost no composite three stars. So I'm a bit less confident about that pick.
Ace: I don’t feel great about you waffling this early.
BiSB: Okay, how about this: Thomas might be starting next year, so we're going to need to see something from him this year.
Ace: :grimacing:
Brian: I'm not waffling, it's just that this isn't a "holy shit look at this Jake Ryan guy" pick
Ace: Poking fun, I know the options were limited.
Seth: If I had to pick one piece of hype coming from the next wave it would be that they can't tell if Kalel Mullings is a bird, a plane, or Devin Bush Jr.-junior.
Brian: I am personally rooting for Osman Savage, because I really need a guy named SAVAGE in a Michigan uniform for meme purposes.
Speaking of poking,
What do you want to hear about the secondary?
The 2000s are excised; let's get past very good. [Barron]
Ace: Dax Hill is that dude. I know there are other concerns but, man, I really want to see a fully unleashed five-star safety.
Brian: I guess what I want to hear is that Andre Seldon is Will Likely? I have, uh, modest hopes for the more veteran CBs.
Ace: But taller! (Slightly.)
BiSB: A DJ Turner would be welcomed as well.
Ace: I have relatively high hopes for Ambry Thomas. They need an unproven guy to break through, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seldon or Darion Green-Warren is getting a lot of time from day one.
Seth: I haven't decided how much I've given up on a Green twin or Sammy Faustin or even Jalen Perry at this point but it's in the range of mostly.
BiSB: Is Jordan Morant the third safety by October?
Ace: I think they already moved one of the freshman receivers to cornerback, which doesn’t seem like a great sign. I guess I’d like to hear that Eamonn Dennis moved back to receiver?
BiSB: Dennis was a potential corner even during the recruiting process.
Brian: To me that's a move like George Johnson III where you should do it just in case because the slot position is loaded, I'm fine with that.
Seth: I was going to say I'd like some more talk about Johnson's ludicrous athleticism.
Brian: High school QB to CB means one more year in the oven before anyone should be talking about him.
Seth: Except his potential.
Ace: If we could get a Freddy Canteen-style workout video that’d be cool.
BiSB: Unlike the past, Michigan actually has a bunch of "you gotta get this guy the ball a couple of times a game" type guys. The end arounds are probably already spoken for. Not much to do but let him develop. Maybe he can return a kick or two?
Seth: They're pushing a "Brad Hawkins was injured the second half of last year" narrative right now. Maybe put him in front of a camera and have him talk about how his speed is all the way back?
Oh and how the entire secondary is getting over colitis.
Ace: I have some regrets about the “everybody get colitis” podcast. I’d like to hear that everyone can eat food as normal.
BiSB: Nothing but the HOTTEST TAKES from Ace. "Food: good, advisable." Wait... you're just trying to fatten everybody up into becoming DT's, aren't you?
Ace: Shhhhhhh
I wonder that if Dax Hill has a breakout year, Brown could ask him to do Hard Things and compensate for lack of size on the line with numbers. Basically how Woodson was used in the '97 defense. That's asking for a lot, but if he's actually got 4.3 speed. . .
It won't work on Ohio State, but nothing works on Ohio State except an All-American tackle.
Yeah, I think Wisconsin and OSU kill us on the ground, again.
Defense?
DEFENSE
I have a hard time reading these posts. There's still part of me that is unsure there will even be a season this fall...it's like the BPONE, man. I try to contain my excitement just to protect myself.
It's not BPONE when you look at things in a realistic light. While the season looks more and more like it's going to happen, or at least start on time, it still is in jeopardy. Our roster also isn't built to challenge for the B1G or National Title. Replacing the QB & 4 NFL drafted linemen, having no proven DTs, and thin depth across the entire defense isn't ideal. It's safe to assume one or two things will work themselves out, but there are too many holes.
Still plenty of great stuff to look forward to though. A huge road win over Washington is obtainable. A chance to secure both Paul Bunyan and the Jug in back to back weeks. Chance to redeem ourselves vs. Wisconsin and/or PSU.
You've just summed up one of the biggest issues with Michigan fandom in this modern era. If we can't compete for the playoff or clearly compete with OSU....much of the fan base is already in BPONE territory. During Bo's era and into the 90s we focused on the conference and Rose Bowl...anything else was gravy. Sure, it still meant competing with OSU and we were on more level footing with them at that time....but we also weren't in one of the two toughest divisions in the country and we didn't have to basically go undefeated to judge the season a success.
If you enter this year with expectations that anything less than an OSU victory is a disappointment...then I have some bad news for you. Like you said - the rivalry games and non-OSU opponents are good and realistic goals to have. Developing talent at QB, DT, and OL are also things we want to see and hopefully will get at least two of them.
As a Lions fan, one can't even hope for a Super Bowl Win (National Title). A Super Bowl appearance is a pipedream too (B1G Title). A Playoff Win is a miracle at this point (OSU win), but making the playoff would be a successful season for sure! (Another 9-3 Season).
Beating the brakes off of Notre Dame and Michigan State last year was fun as hell in my book. Losing to Ohio State and Alabama (two programs operating at a level rarely seen in this sport) to round out the season shouldn't ruin the that.
All good points that I agree with. Heck, I was even enjoying most of the Alabama game knowing that we were hanging with them most of the way.
What "ruined" last year would be that we had some ugly wins (Iowa, Army) and lost to both PSU and Wisconsin. Lose one....okay. Lose both, and squander chances against PSU in the process? Painful.
It was a shitty start for sure (Army/Wisconsin in particular). But that win over Iowa ended up being a win over a team who had a better record than us at the end of the year, who had a better ranking than us entering the game, and who had a better ranking than us by the end of the year. Not to mention Iowa is a thorn in our side. Ugly or not, sometimes a win is a win. And I think PSU was a microcosm of the season. Horrible start, really encouraging signs of turning it around, but not quite enough. Probably gave us a bit too much hope in retrospect.
Anything less than an OSU victory is a disappointment
There, I said it.
Believe me, I'm always hopeful week of, morning of, first half of THE GAME. But I don't think it's a realistic expectation based on the state of the two programs, and where our roster stands this season.
You know, we've had some really good first halves against them. We need a shorter game.
I keep expecting that some day I'll just accept that 11-2/10-3 with a loss to Ohio State is the ceiling for Michigan, but I just can't bring myself there. Despite the fact that's been their exact ceiling for almost 25 years. Every year, just like Charlie Brown, I go into full sprint expecting that this year is the year, and without fail I'm gonna wind up on my ass staring at back-to-back losses to close the season.
I think you can move replacing the QB to the positive side.
McCaffrey is entering his 4th year on campus boasting a 51% career completion, but I should be excited he's replacing a 2-year starter after not being able to beat him out while he was still on campus? I'm going to root like hell for McCaffrey (or Milton), and sure, there is a chance they improve enough over one off season that it's a marked improvement at the position, but that is far from a certainty. Just maintaining the level from last year should be viewed as a win here. Then you'd expect your starter to take it to the next level in year 2. Although we didn't really see that with Speight or Shea.
I think you're right to limit your ceiling for McCaffrey as you do. He's looked "fine" so far...but isn't on the Drew Henson or Chad Henne stardom track.
However, I think his injury last year makes it hard to know what would have happened when Shea struggled mid-season. I also think it is rare to see a senior 4-year starter who is doing "okay" get benched.
What I expect (hope?) to see this year is that our ground game is unlocked because McCaffrey is a more willing runner and understands the read-option more. I also hope that spawns more RPOs. But I'm skeptical that McCaffrey will be as good at downfield passing as Shea was. But if McCaffrey just executes the offense more consistently, we might be able to tolerate a step back in passing accuracy without a drop in overall effectiveness.
He wasn't only injured this past season either. Two years ago he broke a collarbone, IIRC. So, season-long health should be a concern there as well.
A 2nd year in the Gattis system should show improvement on the field. My assumption is that a new QB and 4 new OL are going to cancel that out and we see basically the same thing we saw last year. Rough early, pretty great towards the end but statistically mediocre. I think an offense breaking in a new QB and 4 OL that doesn't take a step back is a big win though.
That’s scary cuz Shea’s downfield passing left much to be desired.
Yeah, I don't think people realize just how mediocre the QB play was last year and just how bad the offensive coaching was for the first half of the year.
It's possible QB is an upgrade and likely won't be worse. Highly likely the coaching is much better, especially since it was in the second half of the year.
Good chance the offense overall is better. Good chance the defense is better.
I think we'll be 9-2 or 10-1 going into the OSU game with a chance to win the division. Possible losses are @wash and @minn but I don't see us losing any others. Then who knows? Maybe we'll finally pull something off in The Game.
I don't know how to translate this into the coach-speak or media tid-bits we want to hear....but this is what I want it to mean:
- Chris Hinton is well on his way to being a star.
A starting duo of "reliable Kemp" and "future star Hinton" makes a lot of our concerns about this defense go away. - Mazi Smith has had a great off-season and is competing
We need a third DT and I have little hope for someone like Jeter or Paea breaking through. Maybe a SDE convert is making strides, but Smith being a functional back-up this year and part of your goal-line D would be ideal. - Our clear 3rd CB is _____.
I'm not even sure I care what name goes in that blank, just that we know who the third person is because they've separated themselves. - We have to find ways to get (insert pass rusher here) on the field.
I don't think there's an Uche on the roster yet, but a pass-rush specialist would be nice. I think Hutchinson and Paye are going to be very solid. Getting someone who can spell them a few snaps a game would be awesome. - Our depth chart at Viper is _____.
I like the overall talent and depth, but I'm not clear we have a feel for who is going to lock down that spot or be the heir in waiting. For the first time since probably 2013 we don't know exactly who's the hybrid space player.
I'm not worried about the conventional linebackers, safeties, or DEs any more than I would be in a normal year. We know who those guys are and each one will be somewhere between "reliable starter" and "potential star".
I’m not writing off Jeter and Vilain as much as you are. Injuries can take a mental toll and it sounds like they’re both physically healthy but have to get over some mental aspects of the game. I’m hoping they can at least breakthrough on the two deep. Vilain also has similar size as Uche so perhaps he can provide that pass rushing burst. Ojabo could have that limited pass rushing role too. I’m hoping at least one of Welschof and Upshaw pan out in the grow a DL program. I imagine that 3rd CB is going to be DJ Turner, but they want Gemon Green to hit too. Seldon will play as nickel too. Viper depth chart is probably Barrett-Solomon-freshman which is probably about the same or maybe slightly worse than how it has been for the last couple years.
I intentionally didn't mention Vilain in my post because I think he's still got a chance. Injuries were obviously holding him back and the depth chart last year with Hutchinson, Paye, and Uche contributed as well. I think there's hope for him if he can stay healthy.
Jeter I think is a little different. Maybe he was dinged up last year at times, but unlike Vilain he actually saw the field and there was no depth chart issue. If he could become even a viable back-up that would be great. I just don't think he or Paea (who's never played and switched positions multiple times) are likely to contribute. I'm more optimistic about one of the SDE switches becoming impactful.
Donovan Jeter is Top 5 biggest disappointments in Harbaugh era. Flipped from ND, came in with high hopes and guy has done zilch when asked to contribute. Slow off snap, no motor, no lateral pursuit.
Michael Thompson/Ellison Jordan/Brant Lawless-Sherrill.... these 3 names still floating around out there, not committed to any schools. Do we stand any chance at pulling one to the good guys?
Forgive my ignorance...but are those recruits or transfers?
Prior to Mike Danna my opinion of immediate-help transfers was very low. The other guys we had signed in the past never really worked out. Finding a DT who could do what Danna did (rotate with the starters, be average-ish) would be ideal. I just don't expect it to happen. There aren't very many people who fit the criteria and those that do may not want to come and compete with Kemp and Hinton. But I'll keep crossing my fingers just in case.
Transfers. Not really viable ones either. Thompson and Sherrill would have to sit out a year. Thompson has also switched to OL and Jordan has a injury history
Like you, I'm guessing finding guys like Danna for a transfer are going to be the exception rather then the norm. Danna was first team all-MAC his last year at CMU. He wasn't some guy stuck on the depth chart hoping to find more playing time somewhere. He was a guy who had proven himself in a non-power 5 conference and looking to move up.
Danna was better than average-ish. He was pretty much on par with two guys that were above average and that's how he got drafted in the 5th (?) round. He was really good. Unfortunately was really good at a position that already had a lot of depth.
He's an extreme rarity in a transfer as a guy that probably could have gone pro and for whatever reason didn't, but good for him that he improved his draft stock a little bit.
These are my favorite off season posts. Hands down.
Give me draftageddon
I don't know whether to up vote you for really good sarcasm or down vote you for honesty.
Draftageddon was a slog to get through for sure, but I like the idea of an All B1G team selection with commentary on who the best players are and why. I think the latest version of that article was the best format they've done to date, since it follows more of an open dialog like this article does.
Regardless, neither format is my favorite. I agree that the 27 tickets thing mentioned below is a great article to read. I also enjoy the new freshman introductions, since they almost act as a count down to the season.
I like the ticket piece Brian does (27 tickets??). I think we usually get one or two in the spring and then one pre or early fall camp. With no spring ball, we didn't get any in the spring.
Yes! So good. I'm going to miss Jordan Glasgow's wild picture they used for that series the most...
For some reason I thought Jeter transferred. And that was disappointing because I've been rooting for that guy since he bashed Brian Kelly on his signing day. Still hoping he can put it together.
For dline I just hope there is a lot of depth. Your line can't be dominant unless you have at least 8 guys that play, like in 2016. Its too physically demanding of a position. If Hutch and Paye are playing every snap, no matter how good they are, that's a problem.
For lb, I'm still in wait and see on Barrett and the other Vipers. That position has had been manned by NFL guys for all of Brown's tenure, and I just haven't seen enough of anyone else to be that confident. Hope everyone is right that Barrett is the next star.
For secondary, you are already mostly giving up on Jalen Perry? That feels premature. Also, I get the feeling that GJ3 was more moved to CB by necessity and Eamon Dennis moved to CB from his own choice.
I mostly agree on the DL. I think you need 6 guys (3 DT, 3 DE) that you've comfortable playing in a rotation mostly interchangeably. If you have another couple of guys getting a few snaps, even better. Hopefully Villain and Smith are those two other rotation guys and then we can find a couple part-time guys to fill the next spots.
Jeter is an athletic beast, and I think this is the year it'll click with him. He just needs to put it all together.
What about a 3-3-5 where one of the younglings are working at that linebacker on the line role. Like Ojabo or Villian?
I think the concern is that it's inherently an underdog defense in the sense that you give up a lot of beef by only having one DT and this exposes you pretty significantly on the ground. And when you play teams like Wisconsin, that's tough.
But yeah, when your DTs are Carlo Kemp, a couple true soph's and some other random parts, you're already an underdog. I would think they'll continue to sprinkle in some 3-3-5 as a change up, especially against less beefy teams.
Only modest hopes for Ambry? I don't think he's going to be Chuck Woodson but I have been expecting him to be a dude. Am I crazy?
At first blush, it feels like a bridge year for the defense, and the pessimistic tone of this post reflects that.
Optimism is more fun: We have some star power at every level of this defense and if young guys can just do their jobs (an admittedly big ask) this defense could be special. Hutchinson is amazing and Paye is very good. McGrone is set to be a star and Ross is outstanding. Ambry is the best playmaker we’ve had at CB since...Leon Hall? And Dax has already proven the hype was warranted, with a very good Hawkins flanking him. Kemp is a solid starter. We just need another DT to step up, Barrett to look like he did late last year, and one of many CBs to seize the opportunity. This could be Don Brown’s most talented roster.
If it's a bridge from one top 5 defense (2018) to another (2021) I'm fine with that because last year was arguably a more rickety bridge and it was still a borderline top 10 defense (14th in FEI) that single handedly won M the Army and Iowa games and gave them a chance in all others except OSU.
I agree with your optimism and think this will be a better defense now that Hinton, McGrone and Hill should go from green to semi-experienced.
If the offense can just finally, FINALLY join them as a top 10 unit this can be a championship team.
BPONE dies this year folks... Most of you don't know what's coming. The reboot of Michigan football the way we want...
I truly love unbridled optimism.
Don't underestimate having a charismatic QB who doesn't get tunnel vision,and having to change offenses every year. We were right there with Holes roster, with Speight, and got shafted by refs.
This year you'll see.
My body is ready.
Elite defenses start upfront. Injuries are going to happen, especially with how much the front 4 will be leaned on. Need to have those bodies to rotate out against Wisconsin's/Iowa's of the world.
I'm going to wait for what Harbaugh tells me. In 2016 he was at a Jordan release party talking about parades and championships. He thought that team could do it, and still thinks that team was closer to it than our record/results reflected. The past few years he hasn't been as optimistic publicly.
Last year he publicly said that he'd pick UM to win the Big10?
Terminology question: when did we start talking about "anchors"?
How does it fit into the roster of D positions that I know and love and learned in third grade? (I'm the kind of boomer (not actually) for whom everything has to be translated into the DE-DT-NT-DE-OLB-ILB-OLB-CB-CB-S-S scheme (along with an understanding that some teams choose to swap out that DT for another ILB.))
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