THE OVERVIEW

Michigan Women's Basketball finds themselves in their second straight Sweet 16, which happens to be the program's second-ever Sweet 16 appearance. Last year they faced Baylor in a game where they were a massive underdog, putting up a valiant effort before falling short. This year they face the team that beat Baylor in this NCAA Tournament, 10th seeded South Dakota. Michigan is not an underdog this time, but reaching the program's first ever Elite 8 will not be easy. 

[JD Scott]

THE US 

Michigan got to host games last weekend and were able to knock off (14) American University rather easily, before edging (11) Villanova on the backs of their star players. Naz Hillmon has been the star all year for Michigan, but the Wolverines' performance as a team has been heavily tied to the health of Leigha Brown. When Brown has been healthy, Michigan has legitimately been a top eight team in the country. With her out of the lineup or limited, Michigan has been quite mediocre.

The injury to Brown led to Michigan's February malaise that cost them the regular season title and led to the early exit in the BTT against Nebraska, but the good news is that she looks close to fully healthy. After playing only 12 minutes against American, Michigan got her up to 28 minutes against Villanova and Brown looked excellent. Michigan may well have lost that game without her 20 points and her role in the offense has been clearly defined by her absence. Brown's ballhandling ability is pivotal, highlighted by the offensive struggles and ghastly turnovers that befell Michigan without her. 

With another week to rest, it feels like the Wolverines should be able to count on Brown and Hillmon for 20 each. The question is whether they can get production from literally anyone else. The best candidate to go off is sharpshooting guard Maddie Nolan. She didn't have a great shooting performance in the opening weekend of the tournament, but her 41.8% 3PT% on high volume makes her a threat from the perimeter at all times. Guards Danielle Rauch, Amy Dilk, and Laila Phelia have all had their moments, with Phelia in particular looking like a future impact player as a freshman, but all three have battled the turnover bug down the stretch. 

Michigan got just 17 total points from the six players besides Brown and Hillmon who played at least five minutes in Monday's game against Villanova. That's probably not enough to beat a team like South Dakota, and it certainly wouldn't be enough to beat either of the two teams Michigan could see in the Elite Eight. The Maize & Blue need more from their bench, no matter how good of a ballhandler Brown is and how good of an interior presence Hillmon is. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The THEM and the keys]

[Richard Carlson/InForum]

THE THEM

South Dakota is an interesting team, cruising through the Summit League to the tune of a 17-1 record and winning all three conference tournament games by double digits. They are the class of that league, but it is a poor league in general, which meant they weren't going to get a high seed due to strength of schedule. The Coyotes are dangerous though, far moreso than you'd expect a 10-seed to be. They made it through the first weekend by beating two power conference teams, (7) Ole Miss and (2) Baylor, by double digits. The Bears were the host for those games too, and South Dakota went into Waco and beat Baylor by 14 on their home floor. Underestimate this team at your own risk. 

Looking through the non-conference portion of South Dakota's schedule, there's a mixed big of results. They beat a Creighton team that is currently in the Elite Eight, and lost to 4th seeded Oklahoma by two. Those are encouraging results that explain why South Dakota made it this far. On the other hand, they did lose decisively to a Texas A&M team that finished bottom tier in the SEC, and by 16 to Northwestern, who was .500 in B1G play. The Coyotes got run over by South Carolina, but they are the top overall seed in the country so there's no shame in that. Based on the resume, this is a solid team capable of beating good teams, but also losing to mediocre or worse power conference opponents. Most importantly, though, they're hot. 

The Coyotes are led by a pair of 5'10" veteran guards, Chloe Lamb and Liv Korngable. Both are redshirt seniors and both are above average three point shooters on high volume, with Lamb at 37.3% and Korngable at 42.2%. Hannah Sjerven is the 6'2" center for South Dakota, averaging 15.0 PPG and 7.7 RPG on 51.8% from the field. She can step out for three and shoots it at 36.2%, but only attempts a little more than one per game. Together, those three players combine for 63% of the average points per game that South Dakota scores. 

[University of South Dakota Athletics]

The other two starters are Maddie Krull and Kyah Watson, who are redshirt freshmen, contrasting the veteran presence of the big three. Both only score ~6 points per game, and are not good offensive players. Krull only shoots 36% from the floor and that number is a grisly 31.7% for Watson. Both shoot even worse than that from three. They do contribute a little bit more rebounding ability than Lamb or Korngable, but that's understandable given that Krull and Watson don't handle the ball much. 

South Dakota's five starters all average at least 25 minutes per game, and only one reserve plays more than 10 minutes a night, Grace Larkins. She's a backup guard who chips in 6.4 PPG on 17.5 minutes, but is not a threat to shoot outside either. The rest of the bench pieces are lucky to score more than a couple points during their time on the floor. Michigan and South Dakota are two teams that lean heavily on their starters (and more specifically, their stars) for offense. 

As you may guess from this rather unenthusiastic portrayal of their offense, South Dakota is a defensive team. They are the 8th best scoring defense in the country, holding opponents to 53.1 points per game. They held Baylor to just 47 points in their upset of the Bears, 31.5% from the field and a horrendous 5/26 from three. Stifling and suffocating, opponents shoot only 36% against the Coyotes on average and South Dakota forces 18.3 turnovers per game. For a Michigan team that has struggled to take care of the rock, that's a little concerning. This one could be a slogfest. 

[JD Scott]

KEYS 

Protect the basketball. In mid-February, Michigan turned it over 17 times against MSU, 21 times against Northwestern and then 22 times against Maryland in consecutive games. One of the culprits was the increased load handling the ball placed on Danielle Rauch and Amy Dilk that has now been alleviated with Leigha Brown back healthy, but it's still a concern. Michigan only turned it over 11 and 14 times in the games in the first weekend of the tournament, but South Dakota is 30th in the country in turnovers forced per game. If Michigan loses, this will be one key reason why. 

Make some shots from three. Another possible reason why Michigan could lose is if they fall into a shooting rut the way Baylor did. A strong game from Maddie Nolan or someone like Rauch or Brown outside would do a lot in terms of giving the Wolverines some extra offensive punch against a good defense. Michigan was 2/13 from beyond the arc against Villanova on Monday. A better performance would be nice!  

Exploit your rebounding advantage. This is Michigan's biggest edge and it has been all season long. The Wolverines are 6th best in the NCAA in rebounding margin, snagging 10.6 more boards than their opponents on average this season. South Dakota is nearly break even, only +1.3 on average, which ranks 134th. Emily Kiser will be the tallest player on the floor and Naz Hillmon is an exceptional rebounder at 6'2". If South Dakota is forcing misses, Michigan being able to rebound a high percentage of those misses and pound the rock inside could be the tipping point. 

PREDICTIONS

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