Oh no.

Word is that Xavier Tillman will return to @MSU_Basketball & pull out of @NBADraft & that would be great news for Spartans plus for Xavier . He can elevate his stock for next year’s draft plus give MSU a super chance for a national title .

— Dick Vitale (@DickieV) July 15, 2020

Oh YES.

Ditto this as well. https://t.co/5rMjRhcCT8

— Chris Solari (@chrissolari) July 15, 2020

Looks like it's time to check in on the NBA Draft. The withdrawal deadline for early entrants who haven't signed an agent has been set for August 3rd at 5 pm Eastern. That applies to 12 of the 15 players with Big Ten ties listed below, including Michigan's Isaiah Livers.

Staying In

not much left to do here [Paul Sherman]

Maryland C Jalen Smith (So.)

While an expected loss—Smith could've come out after his freshman year—this leaves a huge hole in the middle for the Terps. Smith played 35+ minutes in most every important game last year unless he got into foul trouble, which was rare. His backups were mostly invisible in the few minutes they played.

Mark Turgeon surrounded Smith with a bunch of wings who topped out at 6'6", so there isn't a burly power forward to slide over—like Turgeon did with Smith when Bruno Fernando went pro. Maryland added grad transfer Colin Smith from Alabama, but he's a career backup who wasn't effective in the SEC, and there's no big man in the 2020 class.

Minnesota C Daniel Oturu (So.)

A loss of similar impact, except Minnesota is also significantly worse than Maryland in the first place. Minnesota may have a better replacement lined up, however, in Western Michigan grad transfer Brandon Johnson, who averaged 15 points and eight boards last year. He's not nearly on the level of Oturu as a post presence, however, and the returning backups are probably still a year or two away from being solid.

If seven-foot Drake transfer Liam Robbins, who ranked sixth in the country in block rate, is granted a waiver to play right away, the Gophers would regain a shot-blocking presence and be able to play Johnson at the four. Regardless, they'll miss Oturu's ability to do everything you'd want from a big man, including stretch the floor.

Ohio State C Kaleb Wesson (Jr.)

Wesson slimmed down and turned himself into a legitimate stretch five as a junior. He's another prospect internet scouts can't agree on; some have him as a mid-to-late second-rounder, some don't have him on their big boards at all. His loss leaves the Buckeyes forced to go the small, scrappy route.

Kyle Young, a 6'8" rebounding specialist, comes back after missing the latter portion of the 2019-20 season to injury. In his absence, Wesson's primary backup was 6'6" freshman E.J. Liddell, who performed surprisingly well under the circumstances but struggled to finish against Big Ten centers. While Liddell tried, neither showed the shooting acumen that allowed the Buckeyes to really space out defenses last year.

[Hit THE JUMP for the undecideds.]

Undecided

Ayo Dosunmu has a difficult choice to make [Campredon]

Illinois C Kofi Cockburn (Fr.)
Illinois G Ayo Dosunmu (So.)

Cockburn is back in Champaign, and while that's partly due to pandemic concerns since he lives in New York, it also seems like the massive center's best play is to return to school. He's 99th on NBADraftNet's big board and hasn't appeared in any recent mock drafts I've seen.

Dosunmu is in a tough spot. He may have missed his peak draft stock. Based on current big boards, he's looking at the latter half of the second round or going undrafted. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie believes he should come back to school:

Dosunmu has a very real chance to help himself next season by returning to Illinois and fixing his jump shot, given how good the Illini figure to be with his return. Right now, Dosunmu excels in transition, and is good in ball-screens in the halfcourt. But is he good enough to put the ball in his hands? And if he’s not, what do you do with him offensively, given that he’s not a high-level shooter yet? I really like the idea of Dosunmu, and he’s known to be a hard worker and strong character kid. I’m just not quite sure he’d be putting himself in the best position by declaring for this draft officially. 

At the same time, he sounds intent on going pro, and there's no guarantee coming back is going to improve his standing among scouts. Brad Underwood is prepared for Dosunmu's likely departure; he signed two top-50 guards in the 2020 class.

Indiana F Justin Smith (Jr.)* — Smith has announced a grad-transfer to Arkansas if he pulls out of the draft.

The Hoosiers are losing Smith either way. Like many recent Indiana players, Smith didn't deliver on his top-100 billing in his time under Archie Miller. Still, he was a solid contributor on a team that would've made the tournament, and his departure leaves IU a little thin in the frontcourt. If Joey Brunk can play passable defense and/or Race Thompson breaks out, Trayce Jackson-Davis's ability to log major minutes in the frontcourt will go a long way towards making the rotation work.

Iowa C Luka Garza (Jr.)

Garza is also in a weird place. He's the reigning Wooden Award runner-up. He's also on one of the five big boards I'm using for this piece, and even then he's listed out of draft range (#79 on ESPN). Unless scouts fall in love with him between now and the deadline, which seems unlikely given his defensive shortcomings, it sounds like he'll be back at Iowa:

"I think it all depends on what teams are telling me in these interviews and what they're seeing on film," said Garza, the Wooden Award runner-up after averaging 23.9 points and 9.8 rebounds per game last season. "I'm not leaving for an unknown or an uncertain.

"That's the one thing about this process, is I need to know for sure there will be an opportunity for me next year [in the NBA] because if I don't, it's too risky to leave behind what I have at Iowa. I don't want to do anything that I'm not sure about."

It's impossible to understate the importance of his return to the Hawkeyes.

Michigan State F Aaron Henry (So.)
Michigan State C Xavier Tillman (Jr.)

While Henry underwhelmed as a sophomore, he has the tools NBA teams really value on the wing, which has kept him on the fringe of draftable range. Gabe Brown would be a suitable replacement for Henry, though wing depth could get dicey if he leaves.

Tillman's decision will have as big an impact on his team as any listed here with the possible exception of Garza. According to Vecenie, he's a divisive prospect, though one who should get drafted no matter what:

Tillman is another guy testing the waters, and he’s relatively difficult to peg. I’m an enormous fan, and I know a lot of other scouts in front offices who agree. I have him at No. 22 on my board and will have a first round grade on him. But when you ask what range people think Tillman will go, the typical response is “top half of the second round.” I get why he hasn’t gotten traction. He’s an undersized center prospect who doesn’t really shoot it. But he was one of the five best defenders in college basketball this past season, and is one of the best, most versatile screeners in the NCAA. He is an expert in short-roll settings, something NBA teams love from their centers because that area of the floor is typically open with the way defenses are structured now. He can roll and finish with touch inside, and has burgeoning shooting skill. This seems like a tailor made role player at the NBA level. 

All the stuff listed there is why we here at MGoBlog dot com are rooting hard for him to fulfill his dreams of playing professional basketball as soon as possible.

Michigan F Isaiah Livers (Jr.)

It's been quiet on the Livers front. Not much has changed since I covered his situation in detail a couple weeks ago.

Minnesota G Marcus Carr (RSo.)
Utah G Both Gach (So)* — If Gach pulls out of the draft, he'll transfer to Minnesota and file an appeal for immediate eligibility.

Carr wasn't the most outstanding point guard in the conference, but he soaked up a lot of possessions with decent efficiency and was Minnesota's only real distributor last year—he finished with a 36.1% assist rate while nobody else in the rotation surpassed 12.2%. He still has two years of eligibility left if he wants to use them and he's not on the draft radar right now; he may want to get an overseas career started, however, especially with the uncertainty surrounding college basketball happening in the States any time soon.

Gach, who's not expected to stay in the draft, would be an interesting replacement if he's granted a waiver. He's something of a point forward, albeit one with a high turnover rate, and his free throw percentage indicates he could shoot much better from beyond the arc than his career 28% mark. It's hard to see him providing the instant boost Carr did as a Pitt transfer last year, though; Gach's efficiency plummeted with an increase in usage last year.

Ohio State G C.J. Walker (RJr.)

I can't find anything that suggests Walker, who was solid as OSU's point guard last year, is doing anything but coming back for his final season. Little-used freshman Alonzo Gaffney also put his name in the draft before deciding to go the JuCo route.

Purdue G Nojel Eastern (Jr.)*

After Michigan wouldn't admit Eastern, he's still looking for a college home. He's not an NBA prospect at this point; while his defensive upside is enticing, he needs to develop a functional shot. The Boilermakers have been hit hard by transfers this offseason between Eastern and Matt Haarms heading to BYU.

*in transfer portal