Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

Quickly: Cornerbackish safety or safetyish cornerback who excelled at nickel. Strength to take on tight ends but not a hard-hitter.

Draft Projection: Early to mid 1st round. He's a highly valued type of player who can fill a role in most secondaries, and once you get to the middle of the 1st round the guys who can truly change the course of your franchise are off the board and it's time to fill needs. Anything after Pick 20 is great value.

NFL Comp: Marlon Humphrey. A safety-sized cornerback who plays a lot of nickel that you can't shake.

What's his story? The 5-star little brother of Ravens RB Justice Hill, basketball player, highest SPARQ rating of his class, Michigan had to fend off a late run by Alabama to keep one of their most desired recruits in program history. Emerged as starting nickel in 2019 and was an explosive presence off the edge while solving longstanding program issues with drag routes and slot fades. Development was slow as Michigan changed defenses and had an absentee safeties coach in 2020, prompting the most negative (of the coaches) film study I've ever posted. All issues went away in 2021 as Hill locked down the Nickel/SS job and prompted a running "They tried to edge Dax Hill, how did it work out for them?" gag as each week a different opponent tried to punish Michigan for playing Hill in too much horizontal space, and Hill proved it wasn't too much after all.

Positives: Elite speed, acceleration, and agility make him an ideal coverage corner. Shuts down fades, versatility to move around the secondary. Football IQ went from being a weakness to a major strength in the last year. Readily takes on blocks his size and length suggest he shouldn't win as much as he does. Versatility to take on any role from OLB to FCB on any given play. Can get up.

Negatives: Hill came a VERY long way in 2021—hat tip to Ronald Bellamy there—but is still pretty raw at times. Was a culprit in Michigan's early season screen issues, and occasionally got in trouble trying to make a play instead of end one. Better at producing tackles for others than making them himself in space. Can get to the QB on blitzes but tends to go for knockdowns; sack production is low for how often he gets in the backfield. Still a kid on the field and for real—Hill just turned 21—so projection required.

---------------------

What others say: The Athletic's Dan Brugler thinks Hill's the 2nd best safety prospect after Kyle Hamilton:

Hill plays with the athletic twitch and transitional quickness to interchangeably play slot-man, deep safety or in the box and can just as easily lay licks in the run game as he can cover the slot fade. He displays the competitive temperament and awareness to smother in zone or man, although he can do a better job exploding through his target as a tackler or blitzer. Overall, Hill might not have elite size or length, but his versatile package of skills (athletic range, toughness, football IQ) make him the ideal nickel defender in today’s NFL. He should be a rookie starter as either a split safety or slot defender.

Pro Football Focus had Hill for just one TD given up over his career, and the Big Ten's best slot defender.

Daxton Hill: Led all Big Ten DB’s in forced incompletions out of the slot last season (7) pic.twitter.com/WxRLMdV0Iu

— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 24, 2022

Pro Football Network made him their #2 safety.

Slide Daxton Hill into the slot or free safety and reap the rewards. He can make up for mistakes from corners but won’t be much help in run fits. He closes ground with blink-and-you-miss-it speed and has the coverage ability to thrive in single or two-high shells. Hill’s skill set will be highly sought after in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he will be a key contributor from Day 1.

…but note that they really like elite athleticism. ESPN's team had Hill 13th overall for that same reason, and the Draft Network pegged Hill as Option #3 as the 2nd safety taken because he's not as physical as Cine.

Our Scheme/Best Scheme: I'm sure the Ravens want to add the other brother, since he gives them a lot of what they tried to get from Earl Thomas before that blew up in their faces. Versatility is thrown around a lot in the league, but it's most valuable when you can change up what players are doing without letting the offense know without risking a mismatch, and Hill is perfect for such schemes. That 4.3 speed means you can leave him one-on-one with the ludicrous field-stretchers teams run out in the slots and not worry.

2021 MGoBlog Grading by Play Type

The following numbers are based on my 2021 charting in Upon Further Review. One point is roughly equivalent to an action that affected the play by 5 yards, i.e. zero points are awarded for simply filling an assignment. Certain scores require context, e.g. defensive linemen are expected to score 2 to 1 to the positive because of their greater opportunities to make plays, while a linebacker is okay if they're breaking even, and defensive backs (who usually only appear on screen when they're targeted) are impressive if they're consistently coming out in the positive. Team defense charting.

Versus Play Type:	+	-	Total
Inside Zone	4	4	-
Power	11	-5	+6
Stretch	1	1	-
Other Run	14	-6	+8
Screens	29	9	+20
Pass Deep	16	14	+2
Pass Short	27	17	+10
PA Pass	5	-12	-7

Basically they tried to edge Dax Hill, and it didn't work out for them. When someone looked open downfield against Hill, more often than not he was not.

Career MGoBlog Charting by Game

2019 Opponent	Pos	+	-	Total	Snaps	Notes
Rutgers	SS	1	2	+1	43	One nice tackle in space, one probable bust.
Iowa	SS	4.5	1	+3.5	38	4th down PBU
Illinois	SS	1	0	+1	26	Set up a fourth down.
Penn State	SS	1	1	0	29	Tackled Hamler
Notre Dame	SS	2.5	0	+2.5	29	Couple of sticks.
Maryland	SS	0	2	+2	32	Beat on final drive with starters.
Michigan State	SS	2.5	1	+1.5	16	Helped induce White drop.
Indiana	SS	5	4	+1	72	Not boring yet.
2020 Opponent	Pos	+	-	Total	Snaps	Notes
Minnesota	SS	3	1	+2	31	Coverage with BS PI, stick
Michigan State	SS	5	3	+2	88	Slot fades covered.
Indiana	SS	6	3	+3	102	Missed a tackle but man those drag route covers are nice.
Wisconsin	SS	2	5	-3	76	Rough fills on jet sweeps.
Rutgers	SS	7	11	-4	94	Giant errors offset various other good plays.
2021 Opponent	Pos	+	-	Total	Snaps	Notes
Western Michigan	Nk	8	2	+6	57	Space backer of space.
Washington	Nk	7	6	+1	66	Results-based charting. Missed tackles, coverage gambles.
Northern Illinois	Nk	5	3	+2	32	Got a -2 for a guy QB never looked at. Why test his edge?
Rutgers	Nk	12.5	8	+4.5	74	Up and down day. Huge plays when they were needed.
Wisconsin	Nk	9.5	2	+7.5	49	You angered Dax Hill how did that work out for you?
Nebraska	Nk	16.5	7.5	+9	64	The screen was on him. Big road win also on him.
Northwestern	Nk	7	4	+3	35	A whole drive of trying to edge Dax Hill, didn't work out.
Michigan State	Nk	7.5	8	-0.5	76	One step behind in coverage day.
Indiana	Nk	8	0.5	+7.5	51	Got to play safety with Barrett at nickel. Is pretty good at it.
Penn State	Nk	9.5	6	+3.5	86	Played role of held Hutch/Ojabo on the screens.
Maryland	Nk	9	7.5	+1.5	68	Kept trying to edge Dax Hill, kept not working out for them.
Ohio State	Nk	4	7	-3	71	Will take it vs Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and so will NFL teams.
Iowa	Nk	6.5	5	+1.5	56	Early hiccups, insane sack.
Georgia	Nk	4	1	+3	37	Blitzy, sat for half the game.

The low totals in the back end of his career don't mean more than they were giving him NFL assignments or else was not participating. He only played half of the Georgia game after getting trapped in Ann Arbor for a COVID exposure until the night before the game. Michigan tended to put Dax on the guy who will be playing on Sundays (including Maryland's Chig Okonkwo) and leave him there. Michigan's cover 3 got eaten up often during the season, but it was soft coverage under the cornerbacks at fault, never Dax's seams or flats.

Video of All Varieties: (Collection)

Your fade is doomed.

Baits and yoinks.

Agility and awareness when blitzing:

Zone awareness:

People trying to edge Dax Hill and it not working out for them:

They should probably stop trying.

Summary and Projection: One of the best things to happen to Hill was the change in coordinators, which effectively gave Hill the job that Brown recruited hybrids for in nickel (read: most) situations. So much of that was hidden from view, discovered later in the week when All-22 film revealed surprise coverages that froze the quarterback until Ojabo, Hutchinson or a blitzing Josh Ross came through.

He does still look like a cornerback, but that's what you need your safeties to be, and as young as Hill is, there's a lot more ceiling to explore. While his versatility is best used to mix up coverages, any team would want his speed on the depth chart, and could easily justify it on special teams or backup cornerback if safety isn't an immediately pressing need. Dax was made for the League, and I think he'll be there a long time.