Paul's out. [Patrick Barron]

Punt-Counterpunt: 2022 Michigan State Comment Count

Seth October 29th, 2022 at 10:46 AM

MSU Links: Preview, The Podcast, FFFF Offense (chart), FFFF Defense (chart) (version for MSU fans)

Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

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PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

For those of you who are unaware, both Counterpunt and I occasionally dabble in the practice of law. More specifically, we perform the fine, ancient art of transactional law. One guy wants to give another guy a seven chickens in exchange for a goat, and someone needs to chisel that into a tablet to document the transaction. We’re the chiselers. And for centuries, the debate has raged between transactional lawyers ⁠⁠(the heroic contract guys & gals) and litigators (every lawyer you’ve ever seen on TV who didn’t have thick glasses and a pocket protector) as to whose job is harder.

Litigators have⁠—no pun intended⁠—a good case in that regard; hostile opponents, cantankerous judges, fickle juries, insane depositions, and mountains of discovery. There’s a reason all of those TV shows focus on the litigators, as life is not easy for the courtroom jockeys. But they do have one advantage over us mere scribes: litigators know their problems in advance.

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Still better than MSU’s neon jerseys

You see, once a situation has reached the litigators, people are already pissed, and the dispute has already ripened to the point where litigators have a general sense of what they’re going to be arguing about. They’re the E.R. doctors; patient walks in and says, “ouchie here, fix ouchie.” It certainly isn’t easy to fix the ouchie, and the root cause of the ouchie may not be readily apparent, but the ouchie is known. We, on the other hand, have to protect against every possible ailment, malady, and unbalanced humor in advance, before the patient experiences their first ache or sniffle.

[After THE JUMP: The world through transition lenses]

Transaction types are also, somewhat paradoxically, hamstrung by the fact that everyone is happy. It’s the beginning of the relationship. The parties are optimistic and cheery and confident. So people don’t necessarily want to think about how things could go wrong. So Raj and I get to be the folks on the call saying, “okay, so, don’t take this personally, because I know your CFO is a good guy and ***PROBABLY*** won’t turn out to literally be Hans Gruber, but in the event he does, and he chooses to hold Nakatomi Plaza hostage for $640 Million in negotiable bearer bonds, I have concerns about Section 17.2(c)(iii).”

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If you steal a lawyer’s gavel, you get his lawyer powers

Michigan fans are happy right now. I know I am. I think Michigan is going to hammer Michigan State tonight. Not beat. Hammer. Raw numbers, efficiency numbers, fancystat numbers… Michigan is just better. And better everywhere. Michigan’s offense is better than Michigan State’s defense. Michigan’s defense is better than Michigan State’s offense. Michigan’s special teams are way better than Michigan State’s special teams. Every individual unit is better than its counterpart on the other sideline.

Everyone has this as a Michigan win; Vegas has Michigan by 22.5, SP+ has Michigan by 22.4, Statsowar has Michigan by 22.6. Michigan has thoroughly dominated their entire schedule. Michigan State has been thoroughly dominated by most of theirs. It’s at Michigan at night, where Michigan is 9-1 in non-pandemic years by an average margin of about 16 points. I’m usually pretty good at seeing the “what ifs” on these types of things, but I just don’t see it here.

But you usually don’t see Michigan State coming. And that’s the problem.

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College football is chaos, but it is usually explicable chaos. Michigan/Michigan State, though, is always ⁠— ALWAYS ⁠— inexplicable chaos. It’s Donald Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns. Ricky White putting up 88% of his career receiving yards as a Spartan and Rocky Lombardi having his best outing in Green and White by a full 2.5 yards per attempt. Mark Dantonio conjuring rainstorms in 2017 AND 2018. Dantonio digging even into the Moses playbook in 2016, calling down a literal mini-plague on the Michigan locker room and allowing a 24-point underdog to be merely Defeated with Dignity. The Trouble with the Snap. The Trash Tornado. Spartan Bob. The Trip. The Overturn. The list goes on.

Call it luck. Call it skill. Call it karmic because a guy who beat them four times and averaged 177 yards from scrimmage in the process accurately described their fundamental nature. Call it whatever you want. But shit always always always happens in this game. There is no other realistic explanation for Michigan State covering the spread in 12 of the last 14 matchups (by an average of two touchdowns), including both seasons under Mel Tucker and 5 of 7 games against Harbaugh.

I can’t even begin to imagine what will happen this year, but that’s just a problem with my imagination, not with Michigan State. And if you can’t see it coming, you can’t protect against it. I hope I’m wrong, but hope is not a sound legal strategy. Michigan State 21, Michigan 19

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COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

2:45am at a bar, sucking down a sixth Old Fashioned through one of those tiny plastic straws while absentmindedly swaying to Generic Pitbull Banger #289 and clumsily swiping through your iPhone to download and register yourself on a crypto trading app account is, charitably speaking, a suboptimal environment for making a prudent, risk-weighted investment decision.

Yet there I was, at the height of the Bitcoin frenzy in 2017, finally succumbing to the twin temptresses of peer pressure and FOMO. After several years of steadfastly resisting, I finally surrendered myself to the Siren call of watching my friends lavishly bathe themselves in tubs of money while my vanilla portfolio of S&P500 index funds and bonds earned boringly predictable returns. Intoxicated by the booze and rhythmic percussion of Mr. Worldwide’s raps, I took the plunge and smashed a “Buy” order. The amount wasn’t life altering but was reckless enough to sting when my Bitcoin investment lost 91% of its value over the following 10 days. Suffice to say, I have since yet to stray from placing delightfully boring index fund and target retirement fund orders through the prehistorically ugly Vanguard web portal.

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My foray into Bitcoin wasn’t my first or last case of buyer’s remorse. A few months ago, as the world was beginning to lurch from the leisurely world of work-from-home back to the fluorescent lights of the office, I realized that my elastic band mesh basketball shorts would soon lose their starting position in my wardrobe lineup.

In need of a smart-casual refresh, I wandered into a local tailor in Singapore advertising “made-to-measure chinos.” When it comes to standard issue khakis, I’m normally an off-the-rack kind of guy, but I thought I’d treat myself. The shop had a very refined, opulent aesthetic so I steeled myself for the prices I’d be quoted, but I found myself pleasantly surprised when the sales rep mentioned they had a special sale price of $280 for three pairs of bespoke chinos. $95 per pair of chinos is far from cheap but a steal for a bespoke pair, so I thought “Why the hell not?” and took the plunge.

After picking a luxurious stretchy cotton material from a book of swatches, multiple intense fittings and even being offered a complimentary custom paisley inner waistband lining, I kept wondering how they kept the price point reasonable. I’d dismiss these thoughts with seemingly rational explanations like the proximity of Singapore to low-cost fabric makers in Vietnam.

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Magic?

And then came the day I finally arrived to pick up my order. I proudly handed over my credit card in exchange for an ornate garment bag with three pairs of freshly pressed chinos made precisely to fit my one-of-a-kind hairy legs. And that’s when the cashier rocked my world with one sentence: “That’ll be $840.” My second-generation-immigrant math skills honed from a full summer of being forced to study for the SATs quickly dispensed with the drama of the disconnect: the “three-for-$280” sale was $280 per pair of chinos.

You know in movies and TV shows when an explosion goes off and the soundtrack is replaced with a persistent ringing meant to imitate the characters’ temporarily overwhelmed ear drums? Well, that was me in this tailor shop. Too embarrassed and shell-shocked to protest, I weakly smiled and offered a trembling “thanks” and reluctantly took my thousand dollars of pants. To this day, I barely wear these pants out of fear of staining my ridiculously expensive pair of khakis that have now become a family heirloom.

Chinos and crypto don’t even scratch the surface of my poor investment decisions. In search of new glasses last year, I decided to embrace the ethos of function over form. Practical over popular. Sensible over sensational. I really thought I was making the prudent, smart choice. I really did. But after months of getting mercilessly roasted by my friends, it became very clear to me: transition lenses are still not in. I had foolishly believed that transition lens technology had evolved to the point where the issue of lenses being perpetually stuck in the purgatory between sunglasses and optical lenses had been solved. It hasn’t and it looked like I found my glasses rooting through the estate sale of a recently-deceased Johnny Depp impersonator.

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If you're still struggling for a Halloween costume

Yes, I’ve made my fair share of poor investment decisions. Choices that left me holding the bag of catastrophic losses and embarrassment. But none of these decisions comes close to Mat Ishbia footing the bill for a $95 million, fully-guaranteed contract to Mel Tucker based on a single season in which Tucker hit the transfer portal lottery and won a generational talent at running back. I have nothing against Mel Tucker – he seems like a genuinely nice guy and a true finesse god. But after starting the 2022 campaign with a 3-4 record and fighting for bowl eligibility, Tucker’s ridiculous contract is starting to resemble a hideous amalgamation of drunkenly purchased Bitcoin, hilariously decadent chinos and the gauche barbarity of transition lenses.

And today isn’t going to change much of anything as the Spartans roll into the death machine in Ann Arbor. Unfortunately for Mat Ishbia (and Spartan fans) Mel Tucker’s contract is a lot like bespoke khakis – non-refundable.

Michigan 61, MSU 3

Comments

Benoit Balls

October 29th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^

My son is on the spectrum. Still struggling with getting him to understand the connection between "Buy it now" and "you're gonna eat nothing but cheerios until Friday".  3 weeks ago, I logged into my work computer, checked my Gmail and saw "thank you for your purchase" from some Camera store in New Jersey.  An $859 camera, to be exact.  Apparently, I'd forgotten to shut all my browser windows the night before, and Amazon cant do the ol' "auto logout" if you don't close the page.  

Welp, this morning I looked, and the $927.72 is FINALLY back in my account.  So Michigan 92- MSU 7. MSU has 72 yards of total offense

cbrad

October 29th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^

Btc is only the best performing investment in history. Always good to do homework before passing judgment. Getting caught up in daily price action is a mistake. Btc and crypto don’t exist in vacuums and virtually all markets are down now.
Btc has gone from $.0007 to $20,000 and it’s far from over. I’ve friends who made millions and have had contact with a few that realized even more zeros than that. It’s human nature to dismiss the unfamiliar. Years from now it’ll come roaring back to all time highs and many will fomo in.

Blue_2008

October 29th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^

It remains a “currency” that fails to function as a reliable store of value. Blockchain and related infrastructure more generally sure. But individual coins, even BTC, are still a speculative bet that may work out for you, but likely not over any long term time period.

BlueHills

October 29th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^

Bryan and Raj, you're the very best.

Raj, twenty-odd years ago I had written a load of ad music that GM didn't want to have to track talent payments on, because their dealer groups weren't properly reporting the ad buys. Their solution at the time was to record overseas. I was asked to choose a studio in Europe, line up the musicians, and do the final recording and mixing there. A large budget was offered.

I asked, "Why not just go to Nashville, we can record non-union talent there, it's perfectly legal?"

The guy from the ad agency said, "Dude. What don't you understand about Free Trip To Europe?"

Somehow, I saw his point. I decided WTF, let's record in Paris. I booked a gigantic studio there, and hired musicians to fly over from London (the French weren't doing much rock at the time, and the clients wanted rock).

Though it was summer, Paris was going through a cold spell. It was truly unpleasant walking from the hotel to the studio. I decided to buy a baseball hat. While I was at it, I figured I needed more underpants.

I stopped in a small shop on the Rue de Whatever near the studio, walked in, picked up a baseball hat with a logo I didn't recognize (it said D&G, what did I know), and a few packages of underpants. I threw them down on the counter.

The person behind the counter said, "That'll be umpty-zillion francs." What did I know from exchange rates? My head was still creating charts mentally because we had to change key, I didn't bother to do the math.

"Great," I said, handed over my credit card, and continued my walk to the studio, bag in hand.

The sessions went great; I'd hired the best players in London, folks who'd toured and recorded with my heroes in music. After a week of joy-joy, I got home.

D&G turned out to be a little known company at the time called Dolce & Gabbana. This unremarkable baseball hat cost me $400. The underpants were actually $85 each. I'd spent silly money on cotton underpants and a baseball hat.

Your story about the chinos really hit home. Thanks!

Michigan, Umpty-zillion (in French, I think it's all metric, right?); MSU Sieben (that's French, too, isn't it?)

 

LabattsBleu

October 29th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^

thanks for making my morning guys....I'll never look at my pants the same again!

This should not be a contest. But it is a rivalry game and MSU's Superbowl.

My only concern is Michigan plays it too conservative, takes its foot off the pedal, or plays too safe in the Red Zone (you have to try to get in before the 15 yd line imo, otherwise the field gets too compressed which is what MSU wants)...

Close in the first half and Michigan pulls away in the second...similar to PSU... the board will be in meltdown, but the final score will have Michigan ahead by 13 points or more.

WayOfTheRoad

October 29th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^

With Bryan here. Can UM win by 23+? Sure.

Will they? I wouldn't bet on it. 

Further, I'd sooner bet on an MSU upset than UM winning by 23 or more. This game is almost always funky and I actually do think that MSU is underrated in most aspects outside of their secondary. The problem there being that UM doesn't exactly want to toss it around the yard. They have a habit of being a bit stubborn with the run game at times and I think when healthy MSU is ok at stopping it 

Their offense will likely be a lot of Reed, a guy I think is wildly underrated. I like their TE. Their QB is almost better when running for his life and throwing arm punts.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't like that spread.

Blusqualo

October 29th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^

I have lived through far too many horrors at the hands of the couch burning degenerates east of the capital, (in 2009 at their stadium a sorority chick attempted to push my 7 1/2 month pregnant wife down… grabbed said chick by throat and berated her a loud rant of profane insults that would make a sailor blush… almost got mobbed by the crowd… flashed my badge which was like sunlight to vampires to those vile brigands… they retreated enough that we were able to get to our seats…) I have a story about the deranged savages 5 of 6 trips there. Last year a drunk teen or 20’s scrawny waif of a man jumped out of nowhere spewing threats, taunts and profanities at me and my family (wife, son 19, daughter 17, son 11), perplexed by our ignoring him, he raised his fist and charged me! I dodged the punch and his 5-10 150 lb frame collided with my 5-10 280 lb frame and he crumpled to the ground, rolled over got up and then started swearing at my 11 year old challenging him to a fight. Obviously outnumbered by drunken marauders (and no longer an off duty boy in blue), and outgunned we conducted a hasty retreat.

That being said Raj’s prediction will be much closer to the actual outcome. The 3 being the closest to dignity they will come in his prediction. I think 69-6 with a garbage time TD with a failed 2 point conversion, because you know losing 69-7 is embarrassing, but 69-8 is practically a tie.

My 12 year son Tate (yes he was named after that Tate), is going with me and he is chomping at the bit for some payback for those 2 awful trips to EL where he was nearly assaulted both times almost exactly 12 years apart. For some reason he doesn’t remember the first assault as well as the 2nd… fetuses amirite!

 

 

 

Don

October 29th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^

I’m old enough to have seen enough games where unranked MSU teams have beaten highly-ranked and not infrequently unbeaten Michigan teams that I never assume a game like tonight’s will be a blowout gimme. I think a close, one-score nailbiter that can go either way is just as likely as a blowout Michigan win.

26-24 Michigan

DrAwkward

October 29th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^

As a litigator who has to clean up the messes created by insufficiently prescient transactional lawyers, I loved this column.  But I do not share Punt's pessimism.  Our guys will be ready to handle all of the unexpected weird, bizarre, underhanded bullshit that MSU can throw at our team.

Go Blue!

jabberwock

October 29th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^

1. Appreciate the subtle Ghostbusters quote BISB.  Everything happens for a reason.

2.  Thank you for using 'Bespoke" in proper context.  Now can that fucking overused-poser-term die in a fire and never be uttered again?

grumbler

October 29th, 2022 at 6:07 PM ^

You guys delight once again with clever writing and a couple of great twists to make the stories relevant to the game.

I think you guys have upped your game this year.  Thanks again for taking the time to do these.

NYWolverine

October 29th, 2022 at 11:57 PM ^

Seth. I’m a transactional law compadre. I get we gird our loins to expect the unexpected; we move the needle in spite of uneven territory; we don’t kill the deal, we close the deal. 

You bulleted this year’s available data, which is the transactional lawyer’s flex threshold for oppositional outcomes. I fear you let “course of performance” cloud your judgment. 

You let yourself evaluate this team based on prior years’ apparent course of performance; but it’s a different team with different starters, different stats, which you knew illustrated one side outrageously superior to the other. Even to represent MSU is admit they gonna lose, and negotiate by how much.

Punting for the best favorable outcome of the opponent…they’re getting whooped by 22 points across 3 respected websites dedicated to sports bookkeeping. 

In your shoes, penning this article, the worst case scenario I’d ever scribe to is whether Michigan wouldn’t thread the needle on a final drive “f u” TD pass to go up 30. Which they literally went for and to your credit, missed. They won by 22.