Opponent Watch 2020: Week 5 Comment Count

BiSB November 26th, 2020 at 2:41 PM

So, ordinarily we would skip Thanksgiving week, but given the short season, the fact that I already missed a week, and the amount of stuff that needs to be discussed, here we are.

About Last Week

lol yeah we're not gonna talk about that.

The Road Ahead

Penn State (clip_image001 - high five dog GIF)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 41-21

Recap: Penn State has played five games. They have lost five of those games. They have won zero of those games.

Penn State is the first team ever to start in the Top 10 and start the season 0-5.

This is the first time Penn State has ever been 0-5.

Penn State has played five games. They are have trailed by double digits at halftime five times.

Penn State is one of three winless major conference teams. It's Penn State, Vanderbilt, and Kansas.

This team is as frightening as:

DoubleRock_3

We have met the Pointing Spiderman, and he is us. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: You know hat's worse than being 0-5? Losing to a team that is 0-5.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After a brief dalliance with rushing competence against Nebraska, Penn State returned to their previous plodding ways against Iowa; the running backs combined for 13 carries for 16 yards.

When they play Michigan:

DoubleRock_1

h/t to Patrick Barron for the Penn State-inspired artwork

Next game: @ Michigan, noon, ABC (PSU +2)

Maryland (2-1)

Last week: Negative. Well, not negative. Which was sort of the problem.

Recap: This is going to be a really hard season to judge for Maryland.

This team is as frightening as: Like when the apex predator lets its adolescent young try out its hunting skills against a wounded animal. It's still a little clumsy and awkward, but when the gazelle has three broken legs and a concussion, you don't have to the king of the jungle. Don't worry, after the juvenile gets done playing with its food, the adult is waiting in the wings to put us out of our misery. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: While Maryland is sitting safely at home, Michigan's roster is living out a Saw sequel in real time.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Lol, like anything that happens in this game could make you say "wow, I am surprised by this negative turn of events."

When they play Michigan: (We will somehow be surprised by the negative turn of events)

Next game: @ Indiana, noon, ESPN2 (MD +14)

Ohio State (4-0)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 42-35

Recap: For Michigan fans, this was your Cursed Krusty Doll Matchup of the Week.

  • Justin Fields was actually human; he threw 3 interceptions, equaling his total from all of 2019 and the first four games of 2020. That's good.
  • He still finished with 300 yards passing at 10 YPA with another 78 yards on the ground, and totaled three touchdowns. That's bad.
  • Ohio State allowed 491 yards passing and 5 TDs at 9.6 YPA. That's good.
  • Ohio State still outgained Indiana significantly, because they outrushed them 307 yards to –1. That's bad.
  • Ohio State played their worst game in a while and still beat a Top 10 team. That's bad.
  • Ohio State always beats Michigan. That's bad.
  • Michigan is bad. That's bad.
  • Everything is bad. That's bad.

Frogurt, things of that nature.

This team is as frightening as: We gon' die. Fear Level = 0

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State hasn't rushed for fewer than 200 yards in a game all season, and hasn't rushed for fewer than 170 yards in a game since the end of 2019. In a game that will be played in the middle of December, having a reliable running game would probably be a good idea.

When they play Michigan: That thing Dabo says Florida State did? I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

Next game: @ Illinois, noon, FS1 (OSU -28)

[After THE JUMP: Things you no longer have to worry about (or do)]

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Minnesota (2-3)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 34-31

Recap: Not 100% sure how Minnesota won this game. They were outgained by about a yard per play, by almost 2 yards per carry, and by over 100 total passing yards. Regardless, a win is a win, and perhaps they can turn this into some momentum down the stretch.

I'm sorry, what's that you say?

 

Season's going great, guys.

UPDATE: yeah, no game.

Next game: @ Wisconsin, 2:00 p.m., BTN (MINN +21)

Michigan State (1-3)

Last week: Nope.

Recap: Uh uh.

Next game: vs. Northwestern, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (MSU +13)

Indiana (4-1)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 42-35

Recap:

There's the Indiana we know and love. They hung in with a superior team for a while, then fell way the hell behind, then came WAY THE HELL BACK, and had the ball twice in the last five minutes with a chance to tie.

They did all his despite not rushing for yards. Or even the absence of yards. They had more yards rushing when they stepped off the bus on Saturday than they did at the end of the day. But Michael Penix slung the dang thing, and it almost worked. Between a 4th down drop, a fumble on an interception return, and a handful of other mishaps, I don't know how many points they left on the field… but it feels like about 8.

Next game: vs. Maryland, noon, ESPN2 (IU -14)

 

Wisconsin (2-1)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 17-7

Recap: Buried in the wreckage of the Michigan game was the fact that Graham Mertz completed only 54% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt. Sure, Mertz could have been a poorly tended ficus plant and Wisconsin still would have covered against Michigan, but the Michigan game did represent 50% of his career college games. Perhaps we should be less surprised, therefore, by Mertz's 23/41 5.6 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT afternoon against Northwestern.

Now it appears the Minnesota game will be canceled, meaning Wisconsin will miss three of their weakest opponents (Purdue, Nebraska, and Minnesota). Their remaining games are against Indiana and Iowa. While it certainly sucks to suck like Michigan and Penn State and Minnesota and Nebraska, finishing 2-3 would be a hell of an unsatisfying season for the Badgers.

Next game: vs. Minnesota, 2:00 p.m., BTN (UW -21)

 

 

 

The Rest of the West

Illinois (2-3)

Last week: Won at Nebraska 41-23

One thing to know: We tried to say a nice thing about Nebraska last week. We pointed out that they had outscored Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State by a combined score of 54-37 in the first half. Well, Illinois repaid our kindness by outscoring Nebraska 28-10 in the first half on the way to a blowout victory. They also executed the smoothest fake punt in recent memory.

 

The outlook from here, though, is grim. The Illini finish with Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Next week: vs. Ohio State, noon, FS1 (ILL +28)

 

Iowa (3-2)

Last week: Beat Penn State. 41-21

One thing to know: Fat Guy Touchdown? Fat Guy Touchdown.

 

Next week: vs. Nebraska, 1:00 p.m. Friday, FOX (Iowa -14)

 

Nebraska (1-3)

Last week: Lost to Illinois, 41-23

One thing to know: There were lots of reasons not to bring college football back. But it's hard to argue with the results. And by "results," I mean this tweet from Illinois' official athletics account.

Illinois trolls Nebraska after blowout win: 'Thanks for bringing back B1G  football' | Sporting News

I understand your fear and trepidation. These are dangerous times, and caution is the natural response. Yet sometimes we must be brave in the face of disease, privation, and despair, in order that we might reap the greater societal benefits of one of the worst programs in college football standing over the prone, lifeless body of Nebraska football and yelling OH BABY like the AND-1 mixtape guy.

Next week: @ Iowa, 1:00 p.m. Friday, FOX (Neb +14)

Northwestern (5-0)

Last week: Beat Wisconsin, 17-7

One thing to know: Let's flash back to last week's Opponent Watch:

If they beat Wisconsin, we will be forced to discuss Northwestern football. Until then, we will not.

Once again, Wise Present-Day Me has been thrown into the woodchipper by Impulsive Past Me. So, as punishment, I will now discuss Northwestern football.

Northwestern beat a Top 10 team by putting up 266 yards at 3.8 yards per play. They rushed for 24 yards. They averaged 4.4 plays per drive. Peyton Ramsey threw for 4.6 yards per attempt.

Northwestern is now the clear frontrunner to win the Big Ten West.

This concludes our discussion of Northwestern Football.

Next week: @ Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (NW -13)

Purdue (2-2)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 34-31

One thing to know: Amidst the zany antics and uncontrolled global shenanigans of 2020, one scourge had flown under the radar for as long as I can ever remember. Sitting. Waiting. And then, on Friday night, it reappeared:

The Big Ten Refshow.

They also overturned a wonderful catch by David Bell in which he ripped a ball away from a defender. If you're curious, I believe this is the same crew that called the holding penalty on Karan Higdon against Northwestern.  

On the bright side for Purdue, Rondale Moore made his season debut, and was instantly his old dynamic self. He and Bell combined for 23 catches for 220 yards and two scores, and Moore added a touchdown on a jet sweep.

Next week: vs. Rutgers, 4:00 p.m., FS1

Comments

Newton Gimmick

November 26th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^

I'm thinking Michigan has never lost to an 0-5 (or worse) team.  So let's not do that.

Just taking a look back, a few notes:

Last time Michigan lost to a team that finished with 5+ losses: 2016 to Iowa 

6+ losses: 2014 to Maryland

Last time Michigan lost to a team that had started 0-1: 2013, losing to two teams (Iowa & Kansas St). Each started the year with a loss against an FCS opponent (N Illinois & ND St, respectively)

Last time losing to a team finishing with 7+ losses: 2009 to Purdue.  

9+ losses: also 2009, to Illinois (the infamous 38-13 Juice Williams game)

2009 had three losses to teams who finished with losing records: Purdue, Illinois, and MSU.  However, none of those teams started worse than 0-1.

2008: lost to three more teams that started 0-1, including eventual 3-9 Toledo, but nothing worse.  Toledo was 1-4 entering the Michigan game.

1998: 0-1 Syracuse thrashes Michigan after losing to eventual NC Tennessee by one point.  This is the most recent example where a winless team, at the time of the game, with at least loss beat Michigan

1997-2007: worst eventual records for victorious opponents was 6-6 (UCLA in 2000 & ND in 2002)

1996: Lost to eventual 3-8 Purdue.  Purdue started 0-3 and was 2-6 coming into the game.

1993: Lost to Illinois, who had started 0-3, was 2-4 coming in, and finished 5-6

Looks like 0-3 is the worst since at least the '60s.  I might have time later to check further back.

 

Newton Gimmick

November 27th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^

I should have noted that in 2009, Illinois was 1-6 coming into the game.

In 1939 Michigan lost to in consecutive games:

1-3-1 Minnesota

0-3-1 Illinois

Michigan finished 6-2 that year. 

Other "worst team lost to" candidates:

1934 NW 2-5

1954 Indiana 1-4

in addition to

1993 Illinois 2-4

1996 Purdue 2-6

2008 Toledo 1-4

2009 Illinois 1-6