2023-24 michigan hockey

Michigan Hockey Weekend Rooting Guide - 3/7 Comment Count

Peter South March 7th, 2024 at 4:42 PM

The Wolverines didn't achieve the results they wanted this past weekend in Minnesota, taking only two of a possible six points from the Gophers. Despite not being able to catch Minnesota for 3rd in the Big Ten standings, Michigan did improve their positioning in the Pairwise, moving up one slot to 13th. It doesn't seem like a huge move, but with the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA Champions getting 'auto-bids' for the NCAA Tournament, it only leaves 14 spots available to the rest of the field, so getting to 13th provides a bit of cushion. Now, they've gotta hold it.

Michigan's move up the Pairwise was also aided by a number of results we were hoping for in last week's rooting guide falling the way of the Maize & Blue. North Dakota took a pair of games from Western Michigan, who dropped from 12 to 15 and Denver who won 2 games up in St. Cloud against the Huskies, who dropped from 11 to 14 in the Pairwise. Michigan is breathing down the neck of Massachusetts as they are separated by .0006 in the RPI. It's all very tight as we hit the conference tournament portion of the season.  

[AFTER THE JUMP: The master Pairwise table and the rooting guide]

 

Pairwise Ratings - 3/7/24

Rk

Team

Conference

PCWs

RPI

Rk

QWB-†

W-L-T

PwWin %

Wgtd Win % - ‡

1

Boston College

Hockey East

63

.6252

1

.0101

27-5-1 (2-0)

.8131

.8116

2

Boston University

Hockey East

62

.6048

2

.0086

22-8-2 (2-3)

.7292

.7398

3

North Dakota

NCHC

60

.6042

3

.0097

24-8-2 (3-4)

.7451

.7321

4

Denver

NCHC

60

.5931

4

.0074

23-8-3 (3-1)

.7010

.7022

5

Michigan State

Big Ten

59

.5873

5

.0070

22-9-3 (0-1)

.7010

.7093

6

Wisconsin

Big Ten

58

.5845

6

.0053

25-9-2 (3-2)

.7130

.7171

7

Minnesota

Big Ten

57

.5763

7

.0081

20-9-5 (4-1)

.6324

.6275

8

Quinnipiac

ECAC

56

.5737

8

.0023

24-8-2 (1-5)

.7745

.7856

9

Maine

Hockey East

55

.5709

9

.0052

20-10-2 (1-1)

.6562

.6704

10

Providence

Hockey East

53

.5575

11

.0056

18-11-3 (3-2)

.5990

.6086

11

Colorado College

NCHC

52

.5582

10

.0075

19-10-3 (5-2)

.6094

.5983

12

Massachusetts

Hockey East

52

.5556

12

.0031

19-10-3 (4-3)

.6302

.6187

13

MICHIGAN

Big Ten

51

.5550

13

.0062

18-13-3 (1-1)

.5735

.5660

14

St. Cloud State

NCHC

50

.5502

15

.0047

15-12-5 (1-4)

.5781

.5644

15

Western Michigan

NCHC

49

.5530

14

.0063

18-13-1 (1-5)

.6198

.6211

16

Cornell

ECAC

48

.5442

16

.0032

17-6-6 (2-2)

.6897

.6879

17

Omaha

NCHC

48

.5441

17

.0053

18-10-4 (7-1)

.5625

.5537

18

New Hampshire

Hockey East

46

.5379

18

.0046

17-14-1 (3-0)

.5156

.5102

19

Arizona State

Independent

46

.5340

19

.0027

23-7-6 (6-2)

.6852

.6417

20

Northeastern

Hockey East

44

.5331

20

.0069

16-15-2 (4-3)

.5051

.5020

21

Notre Dame

Big Ten

43

.5222

21

.0050

15-17-2 (2-1)

.4608

.4328

22

Penn State

Big Ten

42

.5188

22

.0030

15-16-3 (0-1)

.4951

.4830

23

RIT

Atlantic Hockey

41

.5188

23

.0002

22-10-2 (3-3)

.6765

.6680

24

Connecticut

Hockey East

40

.5106

24

.0030

13-18-2 (1-1)

.4242

.4302

25

Alaska

Independent

39

.5095

25

.0007

15-14-3 (0-3)

.5469

.5720

26

Holy Cross

Atlantic Hockey

38

.5094

26

.0000

18-12-4 (0-4)

.6275

.6240

27

Vermont

Hockey East

37

.5050

27

.0030

13-16-3 (2-1)

.4427

.4419

28

Minnesota-Duluth

NCHC

36

.5048

28

.0028

10-18-5 (3-4)

.3889

.3854

29

Dartmouth

ECAC

35

.5040

29

.0012

11-9-9 (1-1)

.5345

.5400

30

Colgate

ECAC

33

.5022

30

.0018

16-14-4 (2-4)

.5490

.5502

31

Merrimack

Hockey East

33

.5015

31

.0017

13-19-1 (1-2)

.4192

.4186

32

American Int'l

Atlantic Hockey

32

.4973

32

.0003

16-14-4 (1-2)

.5392

.5533

33

Bemidji State

CCHA

31

.4965

33

.0009

17-15-2 (3-4)

.5392

.5353

34

Ohio State

Big Ten

30

.4964

34

.0043

12-18-4 (1-0)

.4020

.3927

35

Clarkson

ECAC

29

.4942

35

.0016

18-15-1 (6-3)

.5147

.5152

36

Minnesota State

CCHA

28

.4925

36

.0014

16-14-4 (3-2)

.5196

.5256

37

Mass.-Lowell

Hockey East

27

.4864

37

.0010

8-21-4 (1-6)

.3535

.3602

38

Union

ECAC

26

.4856

38

.0004

15-16-3 (1-2)

.4951

.4980

39

Michigan Tech

CCHA

25

.4855

39

.0006

15-14-6 (3-2)

.5048

.4961

40

Alaska-Anchorage

Independent

24

.4836

40

.0024

14-16-2 (2-1)

.4583

.4761

41

Augustana

CCHA

24

.4805

41

.0018

12-18-4 (3-4)

.4216

.4435

42

Air Force

Atlantic Hockey

22

.4799

42

.0009

18-17-1 (4-1)

.4861

.4858

43

St. Thomas

CCHA

21

.4760

43

.0007

14-18-2 (1-4)

.4706

.4786

44

Bentley

Atlantic Hockey

20

.4748

44

.0004

16-17-2 (2-3)

.4952

.4980

45

Niagara

Atlantic Hockey

19

.4736

45

.0000

16-16-3 (3-1)

.4810

.4890

46

Miami

NCHC

18

.4671

46

.0018

7-22-3 (1-4)

.2969

.2902

47

Northern Michigan

CCHA

16

.4661

48

.0000

12-14-6 (1-1)

.4687

.4658

48

Lake Superior

CCHA

15

.4618

49

.0000

15-18-1 (3-2)

.4461

.4467

49

Yale

ECAC

15

.4615

50

.0003

10-17-2 (1-2)

.3908

.3839

50

Sacred Heart

Atlantic Hockey

14

.4662

47

.0000

14-17-3 (2-2)

.4559

.4524

51

St. Lawrence

ECAC

13

.4581

51

.0011

10-18-6 (1-2)

.3922

.3879

52

Harvard

ECAC

12

.4580

52

.0006

6-17-6 (1-3)

.3333

.3278

53

Long Island

Independent

12

.4558

53

.0001

15-19-1 (2-2)

.4429

.4677

54

Princeton

ECAC

11

.4520

54

.0002

10-15-4 (5-0)

.3563

.3638

55

Rensselaer

ECAC

9

.4473

55

.0000

9-21-4 (1-0)

.3137

.3243

56

Bowling Green

CCHA

8

.4465

56

.0000

13-20-1 (1-2)

.4069

.4059

57

Canisius

Atlantic Hockey

7

.4449

57

.0000

12-19-4 (2-1)

.3905

.3770

58

Army

Atlantic Hockey

7

.4441

58

.0002

10-23-2 (0-3)

.3429

.3506

59

Robert Morris

Atlantic Hockey

5

.4348

59

.0000

11-23-3 (0-1)

.3468

.3506

60

Brown

ECAC

4

.4342

60

.0000

8-18-3 (2-3)

.3391

.3239

61

Mercyhurst

Atlantic Hockey

3

.4317

61

.0000

9-22-4 (2-2)

.3143

.3263

62

Lindenwood

Independent

2

.4237

62

.0010

6-18-4 (2-1)

.2738

.2893

63

Ferris State

CCHA

1

.4197

63

.0002

10-22-2 (6-2)

.2843

.2767

64

Stonehill

Independent

0

.3410

64

.0001

1-31-0 (0-2)

.0521

.0550

 

Michigan now sits at 13th in the Pairwise, but as you can tell from the RPI column, it's all extremely tight. Spots 10-15 all have RPIs beginning with .55__, so expect to see some wild swings again this weekend. Michigan's got work to do in the Big Ten Tournament to hold up their end of the bargain, but it's not the worst spot to be in with only a few weeks left in the season. 


 

B1G Hockey Final Regular Season Standings  

 

Team

GP

PTS

W

L

T

OW

OL

SW

GF

GA

1

Michigan State

24

52

16

6

2

0

1

1

92

69

2

Wisconsin

24

50

16

7

1

2

2

1

81

57

3

Minnesota

24

41

13

7

4

3

1

0

80

65

4

MICHIGAN

24

36

11

11

2

1

1

1

85

77

5

Notre Dame

24

31

9

13

2

0

1

1

66

62

6

Penn State

24

27

7

14

3

0

1

2

62

92

7

Ohio State

24

15

4

18

2

1

0

2

50

94

 

The Big Ten Conference finished the regular season in pretty anti-climactic fashion on Saturday, as everything regarding the final standings was settled the night before. Michigan State captured their first Big Ten Regular Season Championship since the Big Ten was established in 2013-14 season. The Big Ten Tournament kicks off this weekend with three series and Michigan State getting the bye to the next round. All series are best-of-three, with all games being played in the home arena of the higher seeds.

 

Wisconsin, who finished 2nd in the Conference, will host 7th place Ohio State. Minnesota, who finished 3rd, will host 6th place Penn State,  and the 4th-place Wolverines will host 5th-place Notre Dame. Michigan went 3-1 against Notre Dame this season. The Wolverines split their first series in South Bend on December 1st and 2nd, getting blown out 6-1 in the first game before rebounding on Saturday with a gutsy 2-1 victory before the break. The two teams renewed their rivalry at Yost on February 23rd and 24th with Michigan winning both games, 4-0 on the Friday and 2-1 in the series finale on Saturday, which clinched 4th place in the standings for Michigan.

 

 

This Weekend's Rooting Guide - Games of Significance 

Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking. All times listed are Eastern Time Zone. 

 

Big Ten Games (Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals) 

Friday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 7:00 pm - FS2 

Saturday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 4:30 pm - FS2

Sunday - Penn State (PW #22) at Minnesota (PW #7) - 7:00 pm - FS2 (if necessary) 

Minnesota took 3 out of 4 games against Penn State this season, with the Gophers outscoring the Lions 13-7 and shutting them out in both games in Minnesota in February. A series win by Penn State would be fantastic for Michigan as they would improve their seeding in the next round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Of course, this is all predicated on Michigan taking care of their business in an efficient manner this weekend against Notre Dame. Even if Penn State can win one game, that will help the Wolverines as 'common opponents' records are a factor in the Pairwise calculations. So, let's go Nittanys this weekend. 

 

 

Friday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 8:00 pm - B1G+ 

Saturday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 7:00 pm - B1G+ 

Sunday - Ohio State (PW #34) at Wisconsin (PW #6) - 6:00 pm - B1G+ (if necessary) 

Surprisingly, Ohio State managed to split the season series with the Badgers, as both teams won their home games. The Badgers come into the series after splitting last weekend with Michigan State at home and finishing behind the Spartans by two points in the standings, a bit of a bitter pill for Wisconsin. Ohio State won both of their games against Wisconsin in mid-February, so that feeling of knowing they can pull the upset is still fresh in everyone's minds. This weekend will be one of those rare times when Michigan fans will be cheering for OSU. Like the other series, if OSU can win the series it will improve Michigan's seed in the Big Ten Tournament and even if OSU can take just one game, it will help in Pairwise.

 

Hockey East Games (Final Regular Season Games) 

Thursday - Boston University (PW #2) at Providence PW (#10) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+ 

This is the 3rd and final regular season meeting between these two teams, with Providence winning the first game 3-2 in OT at home and Boston U. winning the next night at home 5-2. The Terriers come into the final weekend of the regular season firmly in 2nd place in Hockey East and on a three game winning streak. Providence is currently tied with Massachusetts for 4th place and have lost their most recent game to Merrimack. This is a game where Michigan fans will be cheering for Macklin Celebrini and the rest of the Boston University Terriers to pull out a win, knocking Providence down a few pegs in Pairwise. 

 

Friday - Massachusetts (PW #12) at Maine (PW #9) - 8:00 pm - ESPN+ 

Saturday - Massachusetts (PW #12) at Maine (PW #9) - 7:00 pm - ESPN+

This is a huge 2-game series to close out the regular season for both teams in terms of Hockey East standings and the Pairwise. The UMass Minutemen are 2 points behind the Black Bears and more importantly, occupy the position ahead of Michigan in the Pairwise. In their only previous game this year, Maine defeated the Minutemen 1-0 at UMass in early February. After going 10-1-1 in December and January, Maine is 4-6 in February and March, cooling off down the stretch but still comfortably in the NCAA Tournament picture. UMass has won 3 of their last 4, with the last three games they've played all went to overtime. The hope for Michigan and its fans this weekend is that the Bears can shred the Minutemen in both games, allowing Michigan to climb more comfortably off the bubble assuming a strong weekend against ND. 

 

NCHC Games (Final Regular Season Games) 

Friday - St. Cloud (PW #14) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #28) - 8:00 pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday - St. Cloud (PW #14) at Minnesota-Duluth (PW #28) - 7:00 pm - NCHC.TV

On the final weekend of the regular season for the NCHC, St. Cloud finds themselves 2 points behind Denver for 2nd place in the conference and also sitting on the bubble in Pairwise. The M-D Bulldogs on the other hand are locked in 7th place and have no chance to get into the NCAA Tournament unless they win the NCHC Conference Tournament which starts next week, a far fall from where the Bulldogs once were as a program. On paper this looks like the Huskies have everything in their favor, but don't discount the in-state rivalry between these two teams. Not to mention the added benefit for Duluth to start getting hot before the NCHC Tournament. This will be the 3rd and 4th meetings of the season between these clubs with St. Cloud winning both previous games by 2-1 and 6-5 scores just before Thanksgiving. Michigan will be cheering for one-time rival Duluth to keep St. Cloud from breathing down Michigan's neck. 

 

Friday - Denver (PW #4) at Colorado College (PW #11) - 10:00 pm - CBS Sports Network 

Saturday - Colorado College (PW #11) at Denver (PW #4) - 9:30 pm - NCHC.TV 

This looks to be the marquee matchup of the weekend in the NCHC and can also have major implications on the Pairwise, especially with Colorado College being a mere .0032 points ahead of Michigan in RPI. Denver can't catch North Dakota for 1st in the standings, but they need to win to stay ahead of St. Cloud State and Colorado College who are 2 and 4 points behind them, respectively. Denver also wants to hold on to the 4th position in the Pairwise and possibly move up, to consolidate the grip on a #1 seed. This is the 3rd and 4th meeting of the season between these two in-state combatants, with Denver winning the first two games 6-1 at home on the 3rd of November and again winning 5-1 at CC the next night. The Wolverines and their fans will be hoping for a Denver sweep this weekend in hopes of leapfrogging both Massachusetts and CC in the Pairwise.

 

Friday - Miami (PW #46) at Western Michigan (PW #15) - 7:00 pm - NCHC.TV 

Saturday - Miami (PW #46) at Western Michigan (PW #15) - 6:00 pm - NCHC.TV

This is a huge weekend for the Broncos who are trying to get themselves back into the Pairwise conversation after sliding recently. They have lost three in a row, during which time their high-powered offense has been shut out twice, and have only won once in their past five. That win wasn't convincing either, an overtime victory at St. Cloud State. Miami is last in the NCHC and have zero chance of beating North Dakota, who are 42 points ahead of them in the standings(!), next week when the NCHC Conference Tournament starts. But, the one thing Miami has going for them in this series is their one and only conference win this season came at the expense of Western Michigan, when they defeated the Broncos 4-3 in mid-January. If the RedHawks were to steal another win this weekend, or even take the Broncos to overtime, the odds of Western Michigan getting an 'at-large' bid would more than likely be out the window. Michigan fans should cheer for that. 

Comments

crg

March 7th, 2024 at 5:35 PM ^

Might actually watch the Boston University game tonight... and possibly WBB since Michigan is playing in the BTT tonight (although there is nothing about it on the board or frontpage thus far... shame).

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