Michigan Hockey took care of their own business last weekend in convincing style, taking both games from Notre Dame. Those wins, combined with some favorable results from other games around the country, resulted in Michigan moving up to 14th in Pairwise from the number 16 position they occupied last week. With Atlantic Hockey and the CCHA being weak, their champions will take the spots of 15th and 16th ranked teams in the Pairwise, meaning that Michigan's current 14th spot is the lowest possible place you could be and still receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. it thus goes without saying that Michigan will feel much more secure about their chances if they can move up to at least 13th, or even the 12th spot. As we've done in prior weeks, let's get into the rooting guide:

[AFTER THE JUMP: The master Pairwise table and the rooting guide]

 

Pairwise Comparison Ratings  - As of February 29, 2024

 

Michigan sits in the midst of a pile up of teams, a crowded RPI picture between 10th and 16th. The results of each weekend could easily move any team in this range up or down a handful of spots, so every game matters. The reality of this RPI situation, however, is that Michigan is very unlikely to climb up into the top 10 of the Pairwise even if they finish the season strong. The gap between themselves and those teams in RPI is too large, which is why you're looking at either a 3 or 4-seed, should the Wolverines make it in. 

 

 

Big Ten Hockey Standings - As of Feb 28/24

If you were in attendance or watched both games on a screen against Notre Dame last weekend, you witnessed something that had not been done by the Wolverines since the 1996-97 season: they swept the 2 game series over the Irish at home! With those two monumental wins and the 6 points that came from them, the Maize & Blue were able to move ahead of the Irish for 4th place in the Big Ten Hockey Standings, which clinched home ice advantage for the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. With the final weekend of the Big Ten regular season this weekend, Michigan can still move up to 3rd in the Big Ten if they can get 5 out of the 6 available points this weekend. That would mean a regulation win and a victory in either overtime or a shootout (two regulation wins also does the trick).

If they can move up, then their first round opponent would be Penn State or Ohio State (likely PSU). If they stay where they are in the standings, we will have Notre Dame make a return visit to Yost. First place in the Big Ten is also up for grabs this weekend as Michigan State travels to Madison for two games against Wisconsin. The other series is Penn State visiting Ohio State, which could determine the finish at the bottom of the standings. If Ohio State can win both games against Penn State in regulation, the Big Ten will have to resort to going down the list of tie-breaking rules to see who would end up in 6th place and who would get 7th. If you want to see how the Tiebreakers work, click here. Any other outcome and Penn State will finish 6th. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

This Weekend's Games of Significance - Rooting Guide

Note: (PW#) = Current Pairwise Ranking   All times listed are Eastern Time Zone

Big Ten Games

Friday - Michigan (PW #14) at Minnesota (PW #8) - 8:30pm - BTN

Saturday - Michigan (PW #14) at Minnesota (PW #8) - 8:30pm - BTN

Minnesota is coming off a bye last weekend and we hope Michigan can use their momentum to jump on them early and get a lead. In their series before the bye, Minnesota faced Notre Dame and the normally low scoring Irish exposed some holes in the Gopher defense by scoring 6 goals en route to a 6-1 victory. Penn State and Colorado College have also scored six goals in a game this year against Minnesota, so if Michigan's offense is clicking, they could light the lamp frequently this weekend. The two teams faced each other earlier this season at Yost in a two game set that saw Minnesota take the first game 4-3, before the Wolverines salvaged the weekend with a 3-2 shootout victory. Both games saw Michigan blow third period leads to Minnesota. 

 

Friday - Michigan State (PW #5) at Wisconsin (PW #4) - 9:00pm - BTN+

Saturday - Michigan State (PW #5) at Wisconsin (PW #4) - 9:00pm - BTN+

This series is for the Big Ten Regular Season Championship with the teams only separated by 2 points entering the weekend. The teams played at Michigan State in mid-December with MSU sweeping the two games in regulation, 4-2 and 3-2. MSU is 4-1 in their last 5 games and Wisconsin is 3-1-1. Coincidently Michigan States only loss, and the two losses by Wisconsin, were all at the hands of Ohio State. Michigan doesn't have a particular rooting interest in this one as both teams are far above them in PWR and it is unclear where Michigan will be finishing in the B1G standings to determine BTT matchups. 

 

Friday - Penn State (PW #24) at Ohio State (PW #26) - 6:00pm - BTN

Saturday - Penn State (PW #24) at Ohio State (PW #26) - 6:00pm - BTN

It may not be a marquee matchup, but it will be intriguing to follow, especially if Ohio State wins and forces the Big Ten brass to blow the dust of the rulebook and figure out the tiebreaking scenarios. The two teams played each other in the final weekend of January in 'Hockey Valley' with Penn State winning both games by identical 4-2 scores. Penn State is 1-3-1 in their past 5 games and Ohio State is 3-2 in their past 5. Again, this one is not of much importance to Michigan, especially not from a PWR perspective. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Hockey East Games

Thursday - Merrimack (PW #31) at Providence (PW #10) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Friday  - Providence (PW #10) at Merrimack (PW #31) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

This is the first time these conference rivals have faced each other this season. Providence is currently 4th in the Hockey East and looking to catch Maine for 3rd, who they trail by two points. The Friars have relied on a balanced attack this year, with 14 players scoring 10 points or more. Providence is 2-1-1 in their past 5 games, which included a tie and a loss to Boston University. Merrimack is suffering through a down year in their program, winning only four games out of twenty in conference play. However, Merrimack has been showing some life as of late, winning two out of their last 3 but endured a seven game losing streak before that. Lack of depth scoring and below average goaltending have been major issues for the Warriors this year. Michigan fans should hope that Merrimack overcomes those issues and continues their recent hot streak. Any games that Merrimack takes off Providence will be a help for Michigan's tourney quest. 

 

Friday - Massachusetts (PW #13) at Mass.-Lowell (PW #37) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Saturday - Mass.-Lowell (PW #37) at Massachusetts (PW #13) - 6:00pm - ESPN+

With Massachusetts being one position above Michigan in Pairwise, this is a series that the Wolverines will be keeping an eye on. On paper, this is a mismatch in favor of the UMass, who still have aspirations of moving up in the Hockey East standings from their current position of 5th (to possibly 3rd). Mass.-Lowell on the other hand is in a tough year where they have only won four games in conference play and eight games overall, BUT this is why they play the games. Being instate rivals playing against each other for the first time this season, look for Mass-Lowell to bring their 'A' game and try and throw a wrench in the Minutemen's plans. Similar to the Providence matchup, cheer for Lowell to take as many games as possible off UMass. 

 

ECAC Games

Friday - Union (PW #40) at Cornell (PW #16) - 7:30pm - ESPN+

Saturday - Rensselaer (PW #56) at Cornell (PW #16) - 7:00pm - ESPN+

Cornell has the luxury of two home games this weekend against two different ECAC opponents, two teams whose only hope of getting into the NCAA Tournament is by winning the ECAC Playoffs. Cornell played at Union during the 2nd weekend of February and skated off with a convincing 6-1 victory. This is also Cornell's second game of the season against the Engineers, as RPI fell to Cornell 4-1 in early February. Cornell has ten players who have ten points or more on the season and their leading scorer is senior Gabriel Seger, who has 34 points. Cornell should win both games, but Union in particular has something to play for and could make it tough on Friday as they are looking to catch Clarkson and Dartmouth who currently sit 2 points ahead of them in the final weekend of regular season play in the ECAC. Expect Cornell to clean up, but we should cheer for them to lose both, with the Friday game seeming more plausible. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

NCHC Games

Friday - Western Michigan (PW #12) at North Dakota (PW #3) - 8:00pm - CBS Sports Network

Saturday - Western Michigan (PW #12) at North Dakota (PW #3) - 7:00pm - NCHC.TV

This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams, as North Dakota looks to continue their winning ways by capturing the NCHC Regular Season Championship. The Fighting Hawks are coming off a bounce-back two game sweep against Minnesota-Duluth after suffering two humiliating losses at Colorado College the week before. The Broncos are 3-2 in their last five games and are looking to catch Colorado College, who is in 4th place. Crucially, in the NCHC (like the B1G), 4th place in the standings is the final position to host the NCHC Quarterfinals. Western is also looking for at least a split this weekend so they can maintain or improve upon their position in the Pairwise, while Michigan would very much like that to not happen. Cheer for a sweep for NoDak. 

 

Friday - Minnesota-Duluth (PW #27) at Colorado College (PW #15) - 9:00pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday - Minnesota-Duluth (PW #27) at Colorado College (PW #15) - 8:00pm - NCHC.TV

With Colorado College stepping on the heels of Michigan in Pairwise, this is an important series for the Tigers and the Wolverines. C.C. and the Bulldogs met in the 2nd weekend of January and traded overtime wins. Colorado comes into the series winning 3 of their last 5 games, while Minnesota-Duluth went winless in February, going 0-5-1 and being outscored 29-12 during that stretch. Colorado College's offense has 12 players with ten points or more and is led by sophomore Noah Laba, who leads the team with 16 goals and 28 points. Undersized sophomore goaltender Kaidan Mbereko continues to impress with his .920 save percentage which is tied for 11th in the nation. Michigan fans should root for an old nemesis in Minnesota-Duluth, as any CC losses at this stage are beneficial for life on the bubble. 

 

Friday - Denver (PW #6) at St. Cloud (PW #11) - 8:30pm - NCHC.TV

Saturday - Denver (PW #6) at St. Cloud (PW #11) - 7:00pm - NCHC.TV

This is another series that Michigan will be scoreboard watching. With St. Cloud sitting in 11th in the Pairwise, a couple of regulation losses by the Huskies to the high scoring Pioneers could cause a shakeup in the Pairwise by the end of the weekend. The two teams faced each other in Denver back in the 2nd week of January, with the Pioneers winning the first game and St. Cloud winning the second in a shootout. Denver leads the NCAA in goals scored with 156 (4.88 per game) but have had issues keeping the puck out of their own net. Their goaltenders sport a combined .887 Save Percentage, an unacceptable number for a contender. St. Cloud has shown a propensity to play tight games, as 14 out of their 30 this season have been decided by one goal. Senior goalie Dominic Basse has been good this year, but lately they have been leaning on freshman Isak Posch, who has a .936 Save Percentage in seven games. Michigan should hope that Denver's prolific offense can make a dent in Posch this weekend and order up a weekend sweep for the Pioneers.