BIG TEN CHAMPIONS! (Patrick Barron)

Michigan Hockey Game #38: Michigan 4, Minnesota 3 Comment Count

David March 19th, 2023 at 12:50 AM

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

 

What just happened (TL;DR): Michigan just won the Big Ten Hockey Tournament in Minneapolis for the second straight season! They responded well being down a goal twice, including once in the third period. AND…they killed off a game, holding a one goal lead for the final 8+ minutes. All very impressive feats that they’ve struggled with throughout the year. #EyeballEmoji

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

 

Total Attempts

Even Strength

Power Play

Close (within 1)

Even Strength %

Minnesota

53

48

5

40

45%

Michigan

64

59

5

50

55%

Forward Notes.

-After a back and forth boring first period, Michigan mostly dominated possession and shots for the rest of the game. While they did makes mistakes to give up a number of transitional chances, Michigan rolled their lines and were able to sustain zone time and create looks on net with basically every line contributing. Minnesota’s superstar top line did get their chances, but Michigan’s depth (h/t Alex) proved strong throughout the game.

-Rutger McGroarty tallied Michigan’s first two goals on similar chances. The first came on a rebound that Ethan Edwards threw on net. The rebound kicked to Rutger in the slot and he buried it. The second was a bomb from Keaton Pehrson off the end boards out in front. Again, Rutger was positioned well in front the of the net for the rebound dunk. He also provided the screen on the game-tying goal.

-I mentioned that this rink/game/team was never going to fit Dylan Duke’s strong suit. He’s never going to be as effective in an Olympic rink. For the most part, that was true. BUT…in the third period, in a tie game, Dylan Duke made a play. TJ Hughes made a great entry pass from the blue line right to Duke’s stick. Dylan went forehand, backhand around Justen Close’s out-stretched skate and finished inside the post for the game-winner. Right where you’d expect Duke to finish.

-The fourth line was impressive on Saturday night. Mark Estapa was great on the forecheck, winning pucks below the goalline. He also had a number of decent scoring chances, too, including ringing the iron on the penalty kill. Nolan Moyle, too, had a few decent chances and checked well on both ends. Nick Granowicz also made a really nice play backchecking in his own crease to breakup a very good look.

 

Seamus Casey had the game-tying goal (Patrick Barron)

Defense Notes.

-In zone, Michigan’s defense was pretty good. They didn’t get overwhelmed and trapped very often. There weren’t TOO many bad DZTOs. They generally were comfortable on the puck getting it up and out. Luke Hughes and Keaton Pehrson had a bit of a rough start. Luke also did have a couple turnovers he’d probably want back, but overall it was a pretty positive night.

-The defensive issues came in transition. Luke Hughes made a bad shot decision that lead to a 2v1. Keaton Pehson played it very poorly, allowing a simple pass across for a goal. Seamus Casey was also caught napping once that lead to a rush. Casey and Edwards were both caught in the offensive zone when Minnesota scored on their 2v0. Steve Holtz was completely undressed by Rhett Pitlick on a 1v1 for the third goal. Holtz is by all accounts a great dude with a phenomenal recovery story, but he’s probably not skating in an ideal defensive lineup for Michigan. A lot of the positives Michigan gained with the play in their own end, they gave away in transition.

-Despite getting burned on a couple of very bad OMRs, Seamus Casey did snipe a corner from distance to tie the game in the third period. It was his 7th goal of the season and his 24th point in his 33rd game. Not bad.

 

Not on the power play, but Rutger McGroarty had a 3 point night (Bill Rapai)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS CHART

 

PP Opportunities

PP Corsi For

PP Shots/Minute

Minnesota

0/2

5

1 (4/4)

Michigan

0/1

5

1.5 (3/2)

Power Play. Michigan had only one power play on the evening. Despite not scoring, I thought their puck movement was pretty good, and they registered over a shot/minute. Adam Fantilli could not get his shot off in one motion or else he could have scored on a one-timer from the dot. He looked to have space to beat Close to the post, but the chance was not to be.

Penalty Kill. The Wolverine penalty kill was much better than last weekend. While Minnesota did get a shot/minute, only one of them was really a Grade A look, and Erik Portillo denied that chance. Michigan also threatened short-handed. Mark Estapa rang the iron. Adam Fantilli had a couple of really good looks from the edge of the House. Nolan Moyle had a good look at the edge of the crease. I wouldn’t be surprised if xG for both teams on Minnesota’s power plays was pretty similar. Lastly, Michigan defended really well against the extra attacker. That’s something that’s bitten them a couple of times, but they were on point on Saturday evening.

 

 

Once again, Erik Portillo did his job (Patrick Barron)

GOALTENDING CHART

 

Michigan Shots Faced (House)

Minnesota Shots Faced (House)

First Period

7

6

Second Period

9

14

Third Period

9

12

Overtime

n/a

n/a

TOTAL

25

32

Notes. Erik Portillo had yet another game in a row (six, I believe, going back to the Notre Dame series) that he played really well. Alex mentioned on the Watchalong that there was a save late that he needed to catch, and he dropped. Michigan iced it. That’s it, though. He did swim in the crease a couple of times, but mostly played under much better control in and around the net. He made a big save on the power play and a couple more on OMRs. There’s very little he could have done on any of the goals. He took a shot and guessed on the pass to break up the 2v0 and was really close to doing it. That was probably his best chance. If Michigan continues to get this play from Erik Portillo, they’ll love their chances in any remaining game this season.

ODD MAN RUSH CHART

Defense

Rushes

Advs

Escape%

Offense

Rushes

Advs

Scoring%

1st Period

2

2v1 x2

50%

 

n/a

n/a

n/a

2nd Period

3

1v0, 2v0, 2v1

66%

 

n/a

n/a

n/a

3rd Period

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

1

3v1

0%

OT

n/a

n/a

n/a

 

n/a

n/a

n/a

Total

5

2x1 x3, 2v0, 1v0

60%

 

1

3v1

0%

Notes. HOO BOY. Here we go. Michigan just hemorrhaged transitional chances throughout the first two periods. Luke Hughes rifled a shot from the point into two Gophers that deflected out into the neutral zone. Keaton Pehrson played it really poorly allowing the pass from Logan Cooley to Brody Lamb to get across very easily for the first goal. The second 2v1 was harmless as the attacking Gophers could not connect on their cross pass. Ethan Edwards and Seamus Casey both got caught in the offensive zone for the 2v0 later in the second period. While it was a perfect storm during the long change, Jimmy Snuggerud fed Logan Cooley for the open net goal. Seamus Casey was also caught napping the neutral zone that lead to a breakaway…that Portillo saved right at the end of the second period. The Wolverines did clean it up in the third, not ceding any OMRs…allowing plural breakaways and multiple 2v1s against a team like Minnesota is just too much.

Frank Nazar led a 3v1 in their third period. He slid the puck across, but the shot was blocked by a diving attempt. Alex and I wanted Nazar to just fire from that range; Brian liked the pass because the shot got away. It was a great play by the defenseman, either way. That was all Michigan got in transition.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Regardless of what happens next weekend (and hopefully a couple weekends after that), Michigan hung a banner on Saturday night. That’s why you compete at these levels. You come to Michigan to win stuff. This team has done that. There are more and bigger goals, for sure. But they now have a legacy. As far a next weekend goes, it looks like Michigan will get the #3 overall and head to Allentown, PA, again…to probably face Colgate? All of that will be determined for certain at 6:30pm on Sunday night on ESPNU.

Comments

stephenrjking

March 19th, 2023 at 1:27 AM ^

In January Michigan was 13-8-0 and every bit as inconsistent as the record suggested, coming off of an ugly split at home against OSU. They went to Mariucci to play the no-doubt #1 team in the country. They had trouble holding leads and weren't perfect... but they absolutely belonged on the same ice and earned a split in a couple of OT games.

Tonight's return to Minneapolis makes an appropriate bookend for what became a very good stretch run. Michigan has propelled itself into the #3 overall seed (by the smallest imaginable margin) and, potentially, a favorable regional matchup. And a Big Ten tournament championship. In a season that would be no doubt the craziest season you could imagine for a college hockey team if you hadn't seen the two years before this one. 

They just deservedly beat the #1 team in the country on the road. Carted a trophy around their ice for the second straight year. The narrative just wasn't there for them; the home team is better than it was last year, they want revenge, they know what happened, this doesn't look like Michigan's year. Michigan won anyway.

I mean, they've still only won two games all year scoring three goals or fewer. But they did hold the co-#1 offensive team in the country to a goal lower than their average and kept the lead in the desperate final minutes.

Only terror ahead. Last year felt like it could be the year and it wasn't. This year, still, doesn't feel like it should be the year with this defense. But it's hockey and if the best team in the country can get punked on its home ice by a young team with an interim coach, anything can happen in the tournament. 

Awesome. Go Blue. 

bronxblue

March 19th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^

Great write up. I agree the fact that UM really can't play hockey beyond a monkey rodeo might well nip them at one point but at the same time being really good, maybe the best in the country, at that thing can't hurt.

It does feel like Portillo is starting to slow down a bit.  That third goal was just an amazing play by the Minny player (though obviously you wish he'd have stopped it) and the second goal was basically a 2v0.  But otherwise he made the stops they needed and while not a wall doesn't feel like he's swimming like he was a month or so ago.

So we'll see.  I honestly don't know how the seeding will shake out or if it'll matter - hockey is weird and college Plinko hockey even weirder - but this is a talented enough squad that they can beat anyone and Minnesota is by most metrics the best team in the country and UM has taken by them down.  Excited to see what the next couple of weeks look like.

 

kyle.aaronson

March 19th, 2023 at 2:04 AM ^

I was a "Uh, Maybe We Shouldn't Give Naurato A Long-Term Contract" guy in the comments section of this blog for the last month or so.

This game officially makes me feel like I was wrong.

I'll still defend the fact that Michigan played horribly against Wisconsin two weeks ago, but their performance against OSU last week and Minnesota this week has changed my mind. This team dominated both of those games, and those are the games that matter the most. They skated faster, passed crisper, and hit harder than Minnesota did. They were very clearly the better team on the ice.

Thank you, Brandon, for what you've done. I have faith in you.

Warde, if you're not busy doing nothing, please, hire him permanently.

Wolverine In Exile

March 19th, 2023 at 7:21 AM ^

I was in the same "don't give him a contract yet" camp. I now feel they can. You're not wrong, you were waiting for more data. And I can confidently say after the Ohio St and Minnesota btt games Naurato has proven he *can* coach to a lead, albeit still with some holes, but I think now he's filled out the resume enough you can give him the job without reservation. It's not a self flagellation event to say "yeah I've seen some good things, but I want to see if he can fill holes x, y, z". Patience is a virtue and there's nothing that would have changed between giving him a contract after a full regular season and mentally stressing tournament, and one in the middle of his first season running a bench. 

Go Blue, successful season, go win that first round game. Everything past that is gravy 

tlfletch33

March 19th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^

We talk a lot about how important adjustments are in football, but hockey is no different.  I'm particularly impressed with the changes made with our defense coming out of our own zone (far from perfect yet) in comparison to where we were mid-season.  That's good coaching.  This is a scary team to face - as long as we don't lay any eggs, we have a chance...

SF Wolverine

March 19th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^

This team is a lot better over the past month, and still has lots of upside.  Can get better defensively, and in cleanly clearly the d-zone.  Hopefully the success against OSU and Minny gives them confidence to take the next step.  Still have to assume you need to win a game in which you score only 2-3 goals to take home the title, and there is work to be done for this team to do that.

lhglrkwg

March 19th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^

I think at this point its valid to ask- if Michigan had Fantilli and Nazar all season, is this team the #1 overall again? Id said at minimum it would’ve been neck and neck with Minnesota