MGoPodcast 14.17: Ojabo the Program
1 hour and 17 minutes
The Sponsors
Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.
Our associate sponsors are: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, Venue by 4M where we recorded this, TicketIQ! and The Nose Bleeds, which is the Sklars Bros’ reboot of Cheap Seats on UFC Fight Pass.
1. Basketball Post-Minnesota
starts at 1:00
How did we get to a throwaway year? We got fool's gold five-stars who weren't great college players, Frankie bolted for insane reasons, Llewellin got hurt, Michigan own-goaled themselves on Terrance Shannon, Hunter doesn't have the same motivation. Next year? Recruits aren't going to change things but could get everybody back. Year it's like: 2006, except we're not going to have a linebacker covering the slot...unless it's Moten?
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Football: What's Coming Back
starts at 32:57
Getting back the OL is a bigger deal than people realize: OL get better. Third cornerback? Odd they haven't hit the portal. They do have options: McBurrows, last year's freshmen, Jyaire Hill...got a long season ramp-up to get him used to playing in the system. One-game season? Or two if Drew Allar is ready. Easy schedules won't last because UCLA and USC will be on the schedule IMMEDIATELY. Coaching staff continuity other than Mr. Computer Crimes.
3. Football: What Happened in the AD's Office?
starts at 49:49
What does the way the Harbaugh situation down mean? Might mean Warde is out, or is being told to be out, or just that Ono isn't going to participate in the old song and dance that only Michigan would still dance to. Name one thing Warde's done? Seth: He's extracted at least as much money from the donors as Dave Brandon did without annoying me once.
4. Seth's Hockey Podcast
starts at 1:06:27
A lucky(?) three points at Minnesota since the Gophers clanged four off the pipe, but also a great way to utilize Michigan's speed. Like the lineup change because Samo is going to get his no matter what line you put him on. Getting close to being able to roll out three scoring lines when Nazar is ready. The league is suddenly a gauntlet.
MUSIC:
- "Bandages"—Hot Hot Heat
- "What Ever Happened"—The Strokes
- "Your Dog"—Soccer Mommy
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music
Frankie goes to the bathroom and isn't sure which toilet he's going to finish on.
January 23rd, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
The OL controls a football game more than any other position group. Michigan is going to be very good next year-and, despite the hand-wringers, probably '24 as well.
I believe the Michigan BB coaching staff is very, very good. They are in a difficult position. It looks as though they do not have the guts to make the corrections that need to be made-it would not be popular. So maybe they are not as good as I give them credit for.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
The suspense is killing me. I need to know what these proposed corrections are.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
Probably involve things like
1) Make shots
2) Don't miss shots
3) Stop the other team from making shots
January 23rd, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^
#3 is definitely in the running.
January 23rd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Probably proposing playing a 1-3-1 zone and/or pressing which this guy always talks about because it worked for his high school team before the 3 point line was added.
January 23rd, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
We played 2-3, man, 1-2-2 and 1-3-1 all in the same possession...and pressed 1-2-1-1 three different ways. The 2-3 is mostly a trash zone and we seldom stayed in it past the initial "show" when needing to retreat from the press-then immediately went to a second half-court defense. The "point" zones can give you excellent on-ball pressure. I have no idea why college teams do not employ this type of defense-with the shot-clock in play.
This could mitigate many of this teams defensive efficiencies...and could possibly negate the need for a more unpopular move/strategy.
What was Michigan's best played regular season game last year???
January 23rd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
Yes!! There it is. Love it when you talk about pre-three point line HS basketball strategy as if it would work in modern college basketball.
The reason college teams don't do the "point" zones is 1) high level college ball handlers easily break the pressure and 2) the three point lines are left way too open and modern college players are too good at making threes.
Remember when Beilein tried to run a 1-3-1 at Michigan and it got absolutely destroyed by Big ten teams? Yeah, that's why no one does it. Probably wouldn't be worse than our defenses the past two seasons but almost certainly not better.
Michigan's best played regular season game was at OSU last year when Hunter did not play. Diabate was great as a rim running screener and as a switch everything center, and Jones was able to go to work without two posts clogging the lane.
They don't have a good PG that can create like last year though, so I don't think benching Hunter is a net positive this year if that's what you're suggesting. Because also Reed isn't Diabate but I do really like what I've seen from his defense lately. If he can stop being the worst FT shooter I've ever seen and just get to respectable, the future looks pretty good for him.
January 23rd, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
Agree with the comment about the OL and would add that the DL also is critical for the same reason. Gotta win the LOS.
January 23rd, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
I was at the game yesterday. It seems obvious that they need to bring Twill off the bench. Tschetter, despite the box score (he only had 2 points and no Rs until the intentional foul at the end) brought more energy to the Defense. You could hear him calling out switches from the top of the lower bowl!
but, and maybe this is what outsidethebox is referring to, i could feel the coaching staff’s reluctance to do that to him. Harbaugh’s mantra of competition doesn’t seem like it’s as applicable here. Maybe for good reasons! But that’s one change we needed.
Now, with Jett out (?) the opportunity to do so has probably passed us by
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
Frankie says relax. I’m happy in Arizona, and under almost any but the present unlucky circumstances, you’re not missing me.
Brian says I’m doubling down on my bad theory, maybe because it’s been criticized as silly. You don’t choose objectively worse players over McDonald’s All Americans on the theory that they might not be brilliant or stay. Freshmen USUALLY don’t get it or all of it, and despite that Dylan has shown those guys got us four, five more wins.* Welcome to the brave new world of severely incohesive and unsettled college basketball teams, and to bad basketball. It, not Juwan Howard, is the 100-pound gorilla in the room.
Hunter’s not necessarily unmotivated, he’s doubled hard every time he gets the ball and the shooters can’t quite shoot well enough to get us over that calculated hump. It’s worth pointing out that if guys have jobs now, too, they may well be overextended sometimes. Good distraction from the fight for equal pay and worker parity, though. A calculated one. 99 percent of the fan base bit hard; players have no choice if positioned to. The few.
College sports: much, much further into the commercial crapper.
*One, two more buckets per game and Caleb is now a wealthier pro, last year a glorious success, so… in the same way we’re a very few buckets from 18-4, as Bronxblue pointed out yesterday. With a different narrative, too. Maybe. Complaining, bitterly, over the wounds that your teams inflict on you is mostly what twilight capitalism fandom is all about. But I’m not sure we should fan it. The outpourings around hoop around here already carry a kinda ugly tinge at times.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
Brian says I’m doubling down on my bad theory, maybe because it’s been criticized as silly. You don’t choose objectively worse players over McDonald’s All Americans on the theory that they might not be brilliant or stay.
there was a period of gary moeller's tenure where he was recruiting like absolute crazy. just incredible, highly ranked, huge upside players. but many of them just didn't pan out, for any number of reasons - grades, low motor / motivation, seeming lack of discipline (please note - this was just my impression from the outside, and this was long before the internet made at least some of this info seemingly more available) - it could've been anything.
at the time, i used to say that moeller was recruiting too many athletes and not enough football players. i think that's part of what juwan does, and part of what beilein did, too.
five-stars can be incredible. obviously. but you want to get the five-stars that are both really good at actual, winning basketball (this is way underrated as a trait), and interested in playing on the college level.
i would submit that the five-star guys that have not panned out weren't really all that interested in playing in college in the first place. they worked, they tried to win, all that, but their heart wasn't really in it. did caleb houstan ever seem all that interested in being here? not really, to my eyes. in a previous time, he would've gone straight to the draft, and that would've been just fine.
do i wish he hadn't come here at all? no, that's not it. not really, anway. i guess that just shows my old-man-itude. but guys that come and go without leaving more of a epitaph than, "highly rated recruit, never panned out in his one year here" don't interest me much.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Yeah, but he’s just not playing for our gratification, is the thing. He’s a supremely talented maybe slightly petrified KID, trying to do right by family, friends, country, himself, under the all too pitiless gaze of people who shriek over their narcissistic wounds when his act isn’t good enough for them. Just a bit more grace, appreciation, awareness might do us all good, but—it’s true—that’s harder to come by when the last vestiges of amateurism and play for the love of sport have been shrugged off.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
well said, and i completely agree that we as fans often don't show grace or understanding that these are, as you say, KIDS. we can all think of times where we've treated these kids as fully-formed adults, worthy of scorn and worse, for not living up to our own dumb, imaginary standards.
i realize, too - thus proving your point - that it was really unfair of me to single out caleb houstan specifically. i don't know him, i don't know what he's like, or have any idea what his campus experience was like. maybe he loved every minute of it. i hope that was the case - exposure to a michigan education and michigan facilities are truly a gift to be treasured, and i hope he didn't treat his year as something to be endured on his way somewhere else. not every one-and-done does that, of course, but if they do? as hyman roth says, "this is the life we have chosen." if we want to win championships, the odds of doing so without recruiting at a really, really high level are so vanishingly small as to be nonexistent. sometimes the five-stars turn out to be worth it, sometimes they don't, but you have to keep trying to get them.
it's funny, too - we've had any number of TWO-and-dones...trey burke came here hoping to make the nba, and seriously considered going pro after his freshman year. franz, too. would i say the same of them, if they'd gone a year earlier? hmmm...dunno. neither of them were fully-formed, ready to go after one season. at least we thought not, right? who's to say?
i don't really have a point here, except to say i wish we still had moussa diabate and david dejulius.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
The system in basketball right now is just really weird, but also what Brian is talking about is there's currently a disconnect between recruiting rankings, which are mostly based on NBA potential, and value to a college basketball program.
What Michigan got in its two five-stars last year was not what you would expect from their ratings and rankings, but it was well within range of what you would expect from their scouting reports. Diabate was a raw NBA body. Houstan was a 6'8" guy who was hitting 50% of his threes on one of the most loaded high school teams of all time. As one-and-done players their value to a college basketball program wasn't much higher than replacement-level, because players tend to improve as they develop through playing time and offseasons. Michigan burned a year of development time on both guys and got neither back, so their total value to Michigan was one-year replacement-level players who made a lot of freshman mistakes that cost them early so they limped into the Tournament with an 11-seed, but also developed over the course of the season, which got them back to the Sweet 16.
The Zion 5-stars who come in and immediately bend the game around them are well worth going after, but if you're going to put in the recruiting effort for a 5-star and wind up with one-year Josh Christopher, Isaiah Todd, Moussa Diabate, or Caleb Houstan, what are you really getting? If Michigan recruited guys who were of less interest to the NBA that they could develop--more Kobe Bufkin-level players--with that recruiting energy, wouldn't they have a better team this year?
It's not like this is unprecedented. Beilein built winners at Michigan with guys who projected as 2nd rounders. Matt Painter and Purdue are dominating the Big Ten right now with this strategy. Zach Edey took 3 years to get to where he is, but now he's the #1 player on Kenpom, and dominates the game to such a degree they can play two true freshmen and a defensive lunchpail guy in the backcourt. Those guys can still lean on juniors Mason Gillis and Brandon Newman. Meanwhile you've got PF Caleb Furst in his second year of starting and preparing to replace Edey eventually. Last year they could lean on Jaden Ivey, who was an off-the-bench not-just-a-shooter as a true freshman. Before him they could lean on Trevion Williams. And through it all they have guys who are of limited interest to the NBA who are nonetheless much more valuable to college, like Sasha Stefanovic.
Howard appears to be learning this lesson, but I think he (and everyone but those listening to Matt D from Endless Motor) got big 5-star eyes without asking how valuable is a 5-star to the program, really? Next year, especially if they get Jett Howard (#43 in the composite) back, I think you'll really appreciate the high-4*s they recruited this year. Tarris Reed (#35) is only just now starting to make an impact, and will be able to make a bigger one after an offseason shooting free throws. Dug McDaniel (#87) is probably going to have an era, with huge assist rates in his future, but right now the game is still slowing down for him and he doesn't have a finishing move at the rim. I think Youssef Khayat (not ranked) will become an excellent defender on the Wing. These guys can't give you an instant impact, but I think they'll all leave greater legacies at Michigan than Michigan's #1 and #3 recruits of the composite era.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
This is well said. Do you have a substack I could subscribe to?
One little thing I would add is that Diabate was a particularly poor fit on offense last year, and that Houstan was disappointing. You want guys to space the floor for HD, and then hit open three after three, when HD sends the ball back out from double teams. Houstan did that some, but not nearly as much as we all hoped, and open threes are well down the path for Diabate's development.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
The narrative on last years team is really weird. The team finished 27th in kenpom and was in a competitive game in the sweet 16. There were unrealistic expectations going into the year but the final product was a solid but not great team that had an up and down season because they were young. Its not anywhere close to this years team. And even this years team is probably fine if Llewellyn doesn't get injured and had a similar improvement arc of settling in as other transfer point guards have had.
On the recruiting front its a question of what your goals are. Is it to be good but not great every year with a hope for things coming together once like Purdue or to shoot for a chance at being great for multiple years in a ten year span. Maybe this is the year Purdue makes an actual run but more likely is Edey picks up a couple early fouls when they get away from big ten refs that let teams play football on the court and they lose to a team with more athletic guards. Pretty much all of the teams winning a national championship are doing it with 5 stars on their team. Last years national championship was Kansas vs Duke. Baylor is probably the team that had the lowest ranking of guys out of high school but they built that team with transfers, not high school recruiting.
Also ironically Edey was Purdue's backup plan after not getting Dickinson, who is still in college and just not as good.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
The sweet spot I think is over where Painter recruits, though. I want Tarris Reed-caliber players who are going to be useful as freshmen and potentially blow up as sophomores, and then back fill every class with Isaiah Livers types.
Purdue's the best team in the Big Ten but Houston is a good example too.
Marcus Sasser makes that team go, and what is he: A 3-star, 4-year guy who began starting the back half of his true freshman year. Emanuel Sharp was in the high 100s in the 2021 class. Jamal Shead was actually the PG in Sasser's class. J'Wan Roberts was in that class too. Tramon Mark was ranked in the 80s in Hunter Dickinson's class. So that's four starters who've been playing together at Houston for 3 or 4 years.
To that they got a 5-star in Jarace Walker out of IMG who's projected to go in the lottery (around where Jett is) but they also have him playing center, which probably isn't his NBA role, but increases his value in college. Imagine Diabate if he had to play the five, but arrived with another 2 years of development and could shoot 35% from three. THAT's a 5-star worth pursuing like one, and probably a good shot at getting one because you want your one-and-done year to be special.
I just don't think Michigan has what Kansas and UNC and Duke and Kentucky offer: A chance to focus on basketball in your draft year. NIL can get us close, but they have an entire lifestyle at those colleges that Michigan wouldn't even entertain creating. Also that market is shrinking now because minor leagues are offering a new path to the NBA without having to pretend you're a student at all, with more or at least comparable money.
When teams that aren't the factories go for 5-stars they often end up with guys they don't get a lot of value out of. I'm fine with going for big whales, but it should be in specific situations, like finishing the touches on a title run, or if there's a particular reason the player is going to favor Michigan. Getting guys who need 2 years to make an impact who stick around for one is probably worse than just going the portal route.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
I think Howard thought he could recruit like the Duke and UNC's of the world. Obviously it hasn't panned out that way, especially at the PG position. You are right about what the ideal is which is also where Jay Wright lived at Villanova. His teams were 90% guys ranked 50-150 in their second to fourth years but he pretty much always had a couple of five star guys on the roster too. I think its a place Howard can recruit at as well, and honestly where he has recruited at. The bigger problem is the rotating door at PG.
This year has had a lot of things go wrong that I think people are just reading too much into. Llewellyn got injured rather than settling in and getting better. Bufkin has gotten better but whether its because of his finger injury or whatever he just isn't shooting that well and Terrance Williams has been a major dissapointment and showing why he didn't play over Houstan more last year.
But the reason I harp on the narrative from last year is rather than people looking at this year as an unfortunate bad year its gets connected with last year to try to sell a pattern of a problem. Last year was not a bad year. The team had a ceiling of being great if everything clicked but the narrative sold that ceiling as the expectation and vastly undersold what the average expectation looks like. So people view last year negatively when in reality it was the equivalent of a median year in the Beilein era.
Always appreciate your willingness to engage though. I know comment sections on articles can be toxic places.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
They got just one good win out of the nonconference last year--San Diego State, at home. They lost to Seton Hall at home, got trounced by Zona, UNC, Illinois, Rutgers, and UCF. They even lost to Nebraska.
Then as Houstan's defense improved to "credible" they went win, loss, win, loss, win, loss through the Big Ten season. The big moments were getting Edey knocked out with fouls early, Diabate shutting down Keegan Murray at Iowa, and Jones going off at Ohio State. It wasn't until that last that Michigan actually got off the bubble, remember.
If Llewellin isn't injured I think this year is a lot like last year, overall: between 47th and 30th. That's well under the reasonable expectations for teams with Hunter Dickinson.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Yes, they were better at the end of the year than they were at the beginning. At the end of the year they were a solid but not great team.
I think you are overrating Dickinson and his impact. Basketball, and especially college basketball is a guard/wing driven sport. You always want your best player to be a guy who can create offense for himself with the ball in his hands. To do that as a center you need to be Jokic level good. Dickinson is an extremely mediocre athlete. He doesn't generate his own offense from outside the paint and he can't power through doubles, which is why he takes so many hook shots and jumpers. His athletic limitations are also a big reason the team struggles on defense. He is an absolute liability on switches on the perimeter pretty much forcing drop coverage which opens up shooters and he doesn't have the lateral agility or lift to be a rim protector that can make up for defensive lapses from the perimeter players. Dickinson is a very good college basketball player, especially on offense but this team is better if you have Reed as the starting five but an all big ten level point guard. I think this is a big part of why we have lost so many close games the last two years, generating late shot clock offense in end of game situations is on guards and our guards haven't been good enough.
January 23rd, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
Does the Jay Wright model used during his time at Villanova still have relevance? I was a big fan of the consistency of his teams year in and year out. Without thinking too hard, I suspect those teams most always had a veteran backcourt presence.
Edit: Should have read further down. Thanks TrueBlue2003!
January 23rd, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
The thing is that Juwan has had exactly one year where he recruited five stars. TWO of them would still have been around if Moussa hadn't jumped through the roof in a post-season workout. That's not a pattern, a track record, anything. This is all just absurdly revisionist as a critique of Juwan's recruiting record--he barely has one. And continuing to harp that he should recruit less-talented players over more talented ones is just goofy. Matt Painter succeeds maybe one year in four; he has lesser players because he can't get better ones.
I already cited Dylan's careful assessment that Moussa and Caleb performed right to freshman expectations. Others have found that, too (see ongoing, far more edifying convo over at UMhoops). Dissing the guy who's been to three straight Sweet 16s in his first three years with what this team faces this year is simply inviting the crazies out to piss on him--congratulations, it's working! Not convincing. The whole B1G is a shit show and is going to remain one for one simple reason: teams need to play together for a while to be good, especially at defense. Mostly what we're looking at is bad basketball. Lots more to come. The NCAA has killed the goose.
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
The argument that you need 5* players to win a title focuses too much on the star rating and less on the type of player you have at any given time. A 5* freshman isn't the same as a 5* junior, and so a top-50 kid who's a junior is probably going to be superior to your average 5* 18-year-old playing his first sustained college season.
UNC's roster last year was full of highly-regarded kids but they were older; their starting lineup was 2 sophomores, 2 seniors, and a junior. Caleb Love was the only top-15 player (I think) of the group; most were top-30/40 guys who are the types Michigan can (and does) go after. Kansas was the same way; decently-regarded kids but were upperclassmen with 2 seniors, a junior, and 2 sophomores. Jalen Wilson's a great example - top-50 kid who in his third year is a star but as a freshman looked pretty lost.
Can you win with a bunch of 1-and-dones in college? Sure. But the top programs tend to get 1-2 of those guys but have a consistent band of top-50/75 kids below them who are experienced college players who can fill in the gaps. That's what is hurting Michigan now; Dickinson has played a ton of college minutes and basically nobody else who gets significant playing time has. So that means when Jett Howard has a bad day there isn't 2nd-year Nik Stauskas, 2nd-year Jordan Poole, 3rd-year Livers, etc. to fill in an carry that load.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
The problem isn't where Michigan recruits, its that they lost two guys to being second round draft picks. Caleb Love could have been a second round pick but came back
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
Seth, I appreciate your remarks - they are spot on in every way. I think Juwan has learned a tough lesson about the pitfalls of five star basketball recruiting. In my humble opinion, either you're getting a guy like Zion or Cade Cunningham that is an instant impact player that changes the dynamic of your team on day one or you're wasting your practice time, game time and coaching on a player that may or may not be motivated to play and is not having the impact you were looking for. Then, after a year, they are out the door.
The best players of the Beilein era all had obvious flaws from a recruiting / NBA standpoint (except for McGary - maybe GR3?) and I just feel like you have a better chance keeping those types of players on campus longer versus a player that's been told they were a 5 star since they were 16 years old and that is going to be the key to success.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
Or you could argue that taking his recruiting up a notch and finally getting five stars in GR3 and McGary is what put the Beilein teams over the top from solid into making a run for a national championship. And there was still a fair amount of luck in that roster construction, if the team doesn't lose to Ohio in the first round the year before and instead goes to the sweet 16 Burke is probably gone.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
I am not arguing you should never take a high profile recruit - there is a time and a place for everything. However, GR3 and McGary (absent a few games at the end of the year) were not the focal point of the team in 12-13, making it more likely they would stick around for at least one more year, which they did.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
GR3 was a starter from day one and McGary is the reason we were able to make a run to the championship game when he took the leap and passed Morgan. Of course you can argue that McGary was more likely to come back because he started the year behind Morgan but what is really more important is that they had a team capable of winning a national championship in 2013 and that is only because of 2 five star freshman starting. The time and place for getting players with a higher ceiling is always if your goal is to win a national championship. If your goal is program stability your recruiting strategy looks different than if your goal is national championships.
January 23rd, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
No. GR3 and McGary were both low 5 stars. Both ranked lower than Houstan and Diabate.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
The reality is Michigan did get a Sweet 16 out of Diabate & Houstan. Had Howard signed more Kobe Bufkin level recruits in that class, Michigan doesn't make the tournament last year. How would fans feel about that? Probably the same as this year with a different focus. Fans would have said he needed to sign more instant impact recruits and that he wasn't managing his roster correctly because he should have seen the holes which needed filling and he didn't go out and get the players to fill them.
I had a post last year which looked at the stats relative to the recruiting rankings for Houstan & Diabate. They were both well in the ranges of every player that had come before them, including Houstan's 3 point shooting %. Michigan got exactly what was advertised, apparently the fans didn't read the fine print. That isn't the coach's or players faults.
January 23rd, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
For one, that sweet 16 was a fluke. They got an easy first round draw and then were super lucky that Tennessee went 2-18 from three. That was a mediocre team all season long that finished 19-15.
And two, I disagree that they wouldn't have been in more or less the same place without Houstan and Diabate. Twill was better than Houstan on the season (116 Ortg to 103!!) and it took him bailing the team out against Tennessee so they could win that while Houstan was having one of his dreadful 0fer games.
And Johns wouldn't have been meaningfully worse than Diabate. Johns had a better Ortg in 2021 than Diabate had last year. His box plus minus in 2020 and 2021 were significantly better than Diabate's last year.
Yes, he scuffled in the early parts of the season not unlike Cade scuffling at the beginning of last year under the pressure of competition, but had that been his job all season, he would have been perfectly fine. He was in that position and played well on their run to the elite 8 the prior year.
January 23rd, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Yes, but Beilein couldn't attract the five stars. I don't dispute that Coach Howard is going to have to try to calibrate. But recruiting less talented kids when you can attract more talented kids is an inherently paradoxical exercise (yes, one with nuances). The emerging conditions were why Beilein quit.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^
Seth, let's not pretend that the development of the five stars was paid off in getting to the sweet 16.
Caleb Houstan was atrocious against Tennessee and had to get bailed out by a late heroic effort by Terrance Williams, who arguably should have been playing over him all year. Diabate was...fine. Certainly not better than Johns was during Michigan's run to the elite 8 the previous season.
And Brooks and Dickinson were brilliant enough (and Michigan was lucky enough that Tennessee went 2-18 from three) to win in spite of the freshmen that looked as lost as when they stepped foot on campus.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Give me a 4th/5th year four-star over a one and done 5 star every day of the week.
January 23rd, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
Ok but then you are spending the first two to three years of that guys career using a roster spot on a guy not helping you win. Do you have the patience for that time with Howard to build the roster that way? Because also remember that the roster left to Howard was absolutely not good which is how we got on the transfer portal at PG wheel in the first place
January 23rd, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Whoa, whoa, whoa. The roster left to Howard was not good? It was outstanding. He inherited Livers (whom he got two years out of), Brooks (three years), Simpson, and Teske and had young DeJulius and Castleton with Franz all but committed (albeit part of a tiny transitional class).
And let's be honest, the PG wheel has been perfectly fine for the team. We chose to go the portal route over a junior DeJulius, but it's not like we had to. He probably would have been fine. I'm still shocked he left (although had mixed results at Cinci with a couple bad years and then a really nice season in 2022).
But it was a good decision. Smith was great for an elite 8 team.
And then Jones was also a great pickup to give Zeb more time to develop. And that was the first big problem. Juwan took Zeb in 2020 and bought him two years to develop but it didn't happen. So that was a whiff.
And then of course the Frankie situation but I don't think that was unlucky so much as a bad signing. Frankie isn't that good. Wasn't good enough to get assurances about playing time in his second year.
So Juwan had two recruiting misses in a row at PG and that was the problem. And even still, he's done well enough in the portal that it wouldn't even be a problem this year if Llewyllen didn't get hurt.
The problems are all over the roster at this point. At wing, Williams hasn't gotten better and neither he nor Jett are focused enough and don't play defense. And then Hunter has regressed and was never a good defender anyway.
Who has Juwan developed over the course of 2+ years? Hunter has gotten worse, Twill has gotten worse, Zeb wasn't ready after two years of grooming, Johns didn't get better.
January 23rd, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
It's not at all a bad theory. And it's exactly what Jay Wright did at Villanova which is well documented:
After reaching his first Final Four in 2009, Wright was in the mix to get the very best of the best in recruiting. Villanova was attracting some of the most highly rated recruits, but the fits at times were not perfect for his way. During a particularly difficult season in 2012, Bill Raftery and I were walking by Villanova's team meal in South Bend when Wright waved us in after the team had left the room. Wright and his staff were planning out scenarios of missing the Big East tournament, or playing on the first day, which was unthinkable to us. Yet, Wright knew. He told us that he was making changes in recruiting, and his next group was going to have the grit and toughness that Villanova had let slip, unintentionally. From then on, the Wildcat program would have a different focus and attitude, and we would see the results in time. Boy, was he right.
I think you're missing some nuance about Brians theory as well. There are some highly rated recruits that are very raw and won't be all that helpful to a college team but are highly rated simply for the potential of their size and athleticism. Those guys are very risky to take at the college level. There isn't much question that those guys won't be brilliant: they almost certainly won't be for the year they're there. That's who he's saying perhaps you don't go after - it's not just McD's All Americans in general (Kobe Bufkin case in point).
This is not to say Houstan and Diabate weren't helpful. They were, but they weren't good enough for Michigan to be better than 17-14 despite having good experience around them and then they left. So you either need to bring in a new crop of guys like them or you wasted scholarships and minutes when you could have been developing guys that would be more useful down the road.
There are guys that are highly rated because they are productive and skilled already. Those guys are a bit better to take because they're more likely to be good college players right away and if they have athletic limitations, there is an added bonus of getting more years out of them.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the last team built on one and done's was Duke in 2015 (and they're really only the second ever in addition to Kentucky's Anthony Davis team).
And in the era of the transfer portal, I don't think we'll see another team win a title with significant one and done contributions. Look at Kansas last year. Kansas - which used to be a one and done factory - won the title with a few key transfers and not a single freshman in the top 8 of minutes played.
It's easier now to compile a team of experienced, very good college players who will almost always be better college players than more talented, but raw and inexperienced players.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
You'd think the easy motivation for Hunter would be that if he wants it, he can be the greatest player in Michigan basketball history.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
i think it's too late in his career here for that to happen, unless he goes 25 / 15 / 4 with a national championship next season.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
Like Chris Webber but tall, like Glen Rice but smooth, like Rudy T but versatile, like Gary Grant but with lock down d, like Trey Burke but with handles.
This entire team should come back next year. And if they do they should be really good.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
Oh my...just OH MY!!!
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
Yeah he's not touching the all-time greats
Nothing against Dickinson, but there's a bunch of guys with more impact and gaudier stats
He's not even Top 10 points or rebounds per game.
He's a very very good college player but he's not even touching the conversation for best player in program history. Maybe if he averages 40/10/10 next year or something lol
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Cazzie says.......ah, no.
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
He would have to come back next year and be better in order to get his jersey hung in Crisler. Until then, he has at least 5 guys ahead of him.
January 23rd, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
Eh. I do buy the fact that it had be deflating to realize your NBA dreams just aren't likely to come true.
Add to that Terrance Shannon not being admitted (which he seems really bummed by) and Llewellyn getting hurt and he's like a free agent that signed on with a team expecting it to be good but then finding himself in a rebuild situation. So the team goals aren't attainable either.
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^
Just like I never wavered in my support of Harbaugh, I'm not wavering in my support of Howard.
While making excuses is bullshit, there are many explanations for why Howard's tenure has been more up and down than desired/expected.
Unless the issues are egregious or obvious, you've got to give a coach 5-6 full years before making a definitive decision on whether they've got what it takes to get a championship.
We've seen some evidence that Howard can do it, so I think he's earned a bit of time to get the program permanently pointed in the right direction.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
I think continuity is going to be incredibly hard for coaches to obtain under the emerging conditions of the college game.
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from episode 14.17 - here are the links:
- Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
Go Blue!
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
I wanted to chime in on the basketball topic because that's an area I feel more qualified to contradict Brian and Seth compared to the other two sports. In general most of what was said is relevant, interesting, and useful to describe the state of the program. However, given the reach of this website across Michigan fandom I wanted to add some debate to it in a couple places:
- Pretty harsh on Hunter overall. I won't defend that he's been as good as he's capable of, especially in some of those key games, but I think they glossed over some context. Hunter is entirely dependent on others to get him the ball - he isn't driving to the hoop on his own or dribbling into post position. Who is getting him the ball this year? Three 19-year old guys with no college experience except a tiny bit from Kobe last year. This isn't Eli/Jones from last year or Smith/Eli/Franz/Livers from his freshman year. Both on the pick-and-roll and feeding the post we are lacking. Additionally, teams are relentlessly doubling Hunter this year and/or playing zone against us more than in the past two years. Why? They don't trust our two young/unproven guards to punish them for that and also don't fear TWill either. We saw some of this last year, but Eli was a savvy vet and Jones could get his own offense plus Diabate was a very opportunistic garbage man. So fair to be a little disappointed with Hunter, but to trash him by saying he just doesn't care or want to be on this team is irresponsible.
- I found it interesting that Brian was fairly demure about Dug's prospects for next year but somehow assumed Frankie was a 30mpg PG had he stayed. This blog loved Frankie more than his play ever deserved and I think Dug is already better at everything than defense and next year should be solid. Frankie bolted because he wanted to be 30mpg/30% usage "star" and it was clear the staff didn't think he was capable of that. He would have played and perhaps started this year, but Llewelyn and Kobe were going to play more minutes. Frankie was probably at 20?
- I loved Chaundee Brown and he was the perfect fit on that team....unless Juwan could have kept Jared Wilson from the year before. Brown was the ideal 6th man veteran who could shoot and defend while fitting chemistry. But he wasn't ever a high usage 30mpg guy and he wasn't an "elite" defender. He was fiesty, he was a pest, he was above average - but he got blown by a lot and picked up a lot of fouls. Also, when Livers went down we saw some of the limitations of asking him to take more usage. Loved him.....but Shannon would have been a different animal as a high usage starter playing tons of minutes.
- I was also frustrated by the lack of "impact" of our 5-stars last year but it is silly to say we shouldn't have recruited or signed them. Who should we have signed instead? We cay say "Kobe" but he was unplayable last year. We can say "guys in the 40-60 range" but that was Frankie and he was barely playable or Reed this year who is good but not ready to start. Should we not have signed Jett this year because he's likely a OAD who is terrible on defense but still plays all the time? The issue is overall roster dynamics and how you use your scholarships. Juwan got stuck a bit with a fairly empty roster and tried to fill it with as much talent as he could. Imagine if Brandon Johns were actually a quality B10 veteran who deserved 25mpg and could have eased the pressure to play Houstan or Diabate some. Imagine if Kobe were more ready last year and could have played some 3 to give Houstan a break.
I think OAD is risky these days because college basketball got OLD in the last 5-8 years while the elite OAD are going straight to a pro league. But the key is roster balance. You need reliable veterans who can fill the holes in your roster. You need versatile players who can switch positions if needed. You need guard depth. Right now we have too many young forwards who aren't playable and I wish some of them were 5-stars.
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
The frustration with Houstan & Diabate is that we never got to see a "good" year from them before they left. I did some research. In the last 30 years since the Fab Five Michigan has had exactly two OAD players and 21 total players leave early for the NBA.
The two OAD were Jamal Crawford and Iggy. Crawford was great until the NCAA suspended him so that's a unique case. Iggy was really good his one season and helped us to the tournament.
Of the 21 total players who left early in that era, you can look at their best season at Michigan and see that just about all of them had a significant impact. Even Moussa and Caleb were starters and major contributors to a S16 team last year. But if you were to rank the 21 best seasons of those guys, Houstan and Diabate would arguably rank at the bottom other than Crawford's limited season. Hence we are frustrated as fans because we didn't get a "very good" or "great" season out of them.
Guess who is probably down there with them....Jordan Poole! He was also a polarizing guy for fans because he left before reaching his potential and perhaps helped drive Beilein to leave. Poole was solid but inconsistent and no where near his peak when he left. However, we at least got two seasons of him and a couple of major moments.
I think you go after top-25 players, but you try to understand (if possible) how likely they are to make an impact in their first year and how likely they are to stay. Houstan was already looking to the NBA and Diabate had a family situation that likely meant he wanted to get paid as soon as possible while both were known to have limitations in their games. But imagine this team if Diabate stayed and was starting.....
Comments