The Matt & Seth Show 2022.09: The Jim Knowles Gambit
Matt Demorest of HomeSure Lending and a beard that used to be browner talk about Ohio State's aggressive approach, why it was bound to fail, and how Michigan made sure it failed often enough to win a blowout in the battle of unbeatens. If you're looking to buy or refi, Matt's the guy.
There is nothing after the jump because it's video content.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:48 PM ^
Good stuff.
What has surprised me reading a number of OSU writers and analysts recently is that, to a person, they really think this was a game that OSU should have won had there not been a couple of missteps by OSU defenders. Which, I mean, is probably somewhat true if we apply the most OSU-friendly reading of how and when guys "screwed up" and we apply it to basically every time a team beats another team in a non-60-0-style loss.
Knowles clearly had a gameplan that centered around forcing Michigan to beat OSU with the passing game but it required a lot of selling out by his defense and guys who somewhat consistently make mistakes (like their corners tackling in space)...to not do that.
November 30th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I believe this OSU game answered questions as to why a lot of DC's on the schedule this year did not commit their safeties to the run game. Michigan's wr's are good enough to beat man coverage for big plays. Also with the strength of the o line, there was a chance Michigan could get their backs to the second level for big plays in the run game even with cover 0 looks. Most teams chose to make Michigan execute complete drives and finish in the red zone and that's not a bad strategy with limited prep time allowed by the NCAA.
November 30th, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
But the OSU bloggers have a point, though!
Hell, think about 2018. If we don't allow 3 long touchdowns apiece from Olave and Parris Campbell, as well as the blocked punt, we win 39-34. Right?
November 30th, 2022 at 9:15 PM ^
You would think they’d be more concerned with why they only scored 3 points in the 2nd half.
December 1st, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
This 100%.
Knowles isn't the reason OSU only scored 3 points in that second half. Seems to me they had a major problem on both sides of the ball. True, the D they played contributed to the big plays Michigan had, but they are clearly ignoring the fact that Jesse Minter and our D completely shut down their elite 'NFL' offense in the second half.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:21 PM ^
The thing is, I’m guessing that among the many plays OSU did stop are several more big play opportunities that Michigan missed. So sure, maybe a few of the long TDs could have gone the other way. But a few incompletes and run stuffs could have as well. Either way, OSU loses on “a few plays”. That’s how the game was always going to go with these game plans.
In the end, Knowles called a defense that required nearly zero mistakes from his players (particularly in the secondary) because a high percentage of mistakes were going to become long scores.
And Minter called a lower variance defense that held OSU to 23 points despite a few great plays of their own.
November 30th, 2022 at 4:08 PM ^
Knowles Gambit is equivalent to Fools Mate in chess. Can only be achieved by black (the away team) and is done in 2 moves (ie the second half.
November 30th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
Anything can happen in a football game. And you can usually go back and find several moments in even a decisive win that turned the tide, that might have brought different results. If you engage in this exercise to the detriment of honest self-scrutiny, then you might be practicing denial.
I think that OSU needs to be thinking on a 2-3 year timeline now. Because--although anything can happen in a football game--next year is likely one in which Michigan will be favored. If I'm a smart AD, I'm trying to avoid being pushed into any rash moved. You just hired Knowles. Move Day along another year in his big contract, see how flexible he proves. Fill the Horseshoe/Toilet Seat with fans, because--hey--they'll come no matter what. Start working on how you'll handle it next year, when the writing's on the wall and you have lived through the probably additional year of decline.
Now, if WE project out from there, we can see a possible period of protracted success for Michigan. Because--as we know too well--nothing's guaranteed. And a year from now, if OSU's starting from scratch. . . well, they're going to be a while reassembling the constituents of a winning program. Could take a little while.
November 30th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
Clearly a healthy Edwards or Corum would have gashed this defense as well as was done last year … there were plenty of openings that were there … the reason the nuts were in control early was the lack of our two backs … JJ took control early for us and kept us in the game till we broke there will in the second half !!!
November 30th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
"It was beautiful."
November 30th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
The 3-4 was, I think, a mistake, and it burned them. Michigan's guards and tackles easily outblocked linebackers 1 on 1. To deal with our offensive line you'd almost need 2 nose tackles to eat double teams, and give you back the numbers advantage, instead of sacrificing safeties for it. They didn't just get aggressive and proactive, they got reckless, and they got got.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:31 PM ^
TNT with 2 DE's would likely be what i would try if i was an opposing DC.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
The drive chart on this game is bonkers. Michigan had 14 possessions. Only 3 possessions were more than 4 plays long (resulting in 2 touchdowns and a field goal).
Of the other 11 possessions, one was the kneel down. Ohio State forced 3 and outs on 5 of the remaining 10, and a first-down-then-missed-FG on another.
But the other 4 “drives” were 69+ yard TDs after 1, 1, 3, and 3 plays.
Basically, it was a coin flip where heads was quick stop and tails was huge play.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:30 AM ^
Basically, it was a coin flip where heads was quick stop and tails was huge play.
That was the theory of how Ohio State wanted to play defense: Get Michigan off the field quickly, rather than letting Michigan get into long 15 play drives that eat up 7 minutes of clock before scoring, like last year.
Some of those get-Michigan-off-the-field-quickly drives will be 3 and outs, some will be Michigan scores. But that is OK, the most important part is to get them off the field.
The theory of doing that is that if you are Ohio State, you are better off in a game with 15+ drives than in a game of just 10 drives. You can outscore Michigan the more chances you get.
The problem with the theory is that it did not account for Michigan being able to stop so many of OSU's drives, while scoring quickly on so many of its own drives. That was a shocker.
December 1st, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
I agree, and that’s the meta point I was attempting to make - Michigan didn’t “get lucky” to hit a few big plays. The big plays were baked in (or at least pretty highly likely)
December 1st, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
Yup. In theory, if OSU played absolutely perfectly, every position, every play, they would've held Michigan scoreless. The problem is, that's the stupidest "in theory" ever. The very reason to have deep safeties in the first place is to clean up busts. Throwing them at gaps raises the chances of getting Michigan off the field quickly, but equally raises the chances of long TDs.
I think Knowles' gameplan was rather clever on paper. The dumb mistake wasn't on the paper. It was that it was on paper. OSU's players are human, and some surprisingly lazy ones at that.
December 1st, 2022 at 9:04 AM ^
The shocker to me wasn't that Michigan could slow them down, but that they did it so passively. Before the game I was all "blitz! blitz! blitz!" but they were content to send four, even three. Michigan's secondary played an extremely good game, and OSU's latest crop of 5-star receivers definitely ain't on the level of last year's.
December 1st, 2022 at 12:40 AM ^
Seth's breakdown of the Online play against OSU shows that if Blake Corum was healthy, he would have scorched OSU's run defense -- in the first half. If you watch the shape of blocking that he illustrated, then go back and look at how Blake attacked the LOS in games throughout the season, he would have attacked the openings the line provided and would have embarrassed the Buckeye run defense.
Just go back and watch the cuts Blake made against Indiana and even Illinois early in the game, in which he makes banana cuts that were available early against Ohio State that our other guys just didn't take advantage of. That is the Corum difference. But I get what Sam Webb was talking about after the game on Saturday. Eventually, of course, Donovan Edwards made it happen. But those openings were available in the first half as well.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:21 AM ^
Edwards was fantastic.
But I have never seen a Michigan RB that can make the micro-cuts that Corum makes, that find the smallest of holes. And then once through those holes he has the leg strength to power through tackles.
A healthy Corum would have opened up the first half the way the second half opened up.
December 1st, 2022 at 12:53 AM ^
It was a classic rout in the 4th quarter, with the 2 long Edwards TD runs and 2(no 3) turnovers by Stroud. A rout in the way we read about the old Greek and Roman battles that changed history, where one side ends up running because leadership panics and they get slaughtered.
Alot is on poor safety play, but their DC put them in that position.
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