It's been a few years since Brian did the Let's Start Again series for basketball. Maybe it will make a comeback, maybe it won't... who knows if we will ever even have a roster. But we do have a roster for hockey! 

Some six weeks have passed since Michigan Hockey's 2022-23 season came to a close and about as long since I last wrote about hockey. In that time there has been some developments with the roster, players entering and exiting the transfer portal and professional signings. On top of that, we've started to get some clarity on Michigan's recruiting class and while one massive decision continues to loom on that front, there is beginning to be a coherent picture of what the 2023-24 roster may look like. 

Today we'll go through the forward group and how it's shaping up at this time before we embark on the summer. Defense/goaltending and a quick note on the coaching staff will be later this week: 

 

Forward 

Exit: Nolan Moyle, Mackie Samoskevich, Eric Ciccolini, Nick Granowicz 

Additions: Chase Pletzke, Garrett Schifsky, Nick Moldenhauer, Tanner Rowe 

Maybe: Adam Fantilli, Mikey Burchill

Doubtful: Brian Nicholas 

The low down: So much of this positional group hinges on what is happening with Adam Fantilli, so let's talk about that first. Fantilli is highly likely to be selected 2nd overall in the upcoming NHL Draft in late June. His competition at the start of the year was Russia's Matvei Michkov, but a choppy year and concerns over Michkov's contract in the KHL + military concerns with the Russian war in Ukraine has caused Michkov to slide down the board some. Swedish center Leo Carlsson is probably the top competition for Fantilli now behind Connor Bedard, but Fantilli has the wide edge among most prognosticators.

The NHL Draft Lottery was held a couple weeks back and besides the usual screwing of the Detroit Red Wings, the endeavor revealed that the team most likely to nab Fantilli is the Anaheim Ducks, who won the 2nd pick. Anaheim is a better outcome for us Michigan fans than say, Columbus or Vancouver moving up, teams that are trying to make a more immediate push. The Ducks are mired in a years-long rebuild that has struggled to get off the ground and this past season the Ducks finished with the NHL's worst record.

[David Wilcomes]

Anaheim has intriguing young players like Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, and Jamie Drysdale, but needs a lot of help. Fantilli will provide that help but it's mighty hard to see them anywhere approaching the playoffs next season after ending this year with 58 points and an abhorrent -129 goal differential(!!!). When your team posts the worst goal differential in a season played entirely in the 21st century, that's generally a sign you're not close to competing. The Ducks were fine with McTavish going back to the OHL in his D+1 year, so there isn't much precedent or competitive reason to aggressively make Fantilli come to the NHL. 

Before the draft lottery, Fantilli told NHL.com that he was completely undecided about whether to come back to Michigan. Connor Earegood of The Michigan Daily reported that Fantilli might return to Michigan, something that Adam Woodon of College Hockey News said he was hearing about Logan Cooley of Minnesota as well. Cooley has indeed opted to return to the Gophers, although that was evidently influenced by the ongoing Arizona Coyotes arena saga. That doesn't apply to Fantilli, but there are also reasons for him not to go straight to the Ducks, such as "looking at the stat page of the 2022-23 Ducks" or "the experience of watching one 2022-23 Ducks game". At the very least he's thinking about it. Adam, the NHL can wait another year. Let the Ducks sign some more defenseman before you leave us!!!

[AFTER THE JUMP: the rest of the returners and the n00bs]

[Bill Rapai]

There's no way to know what Fantilli is going to decide until he informs us. After previously believing he was strongly leaning towards going to the league, I now think it might be closer to a coinflip, although I still think the lean is towards leaving. If Fantilli comes back to Michigan, he will be the #1 center on this team and everything else falls into order. If not, Michigan will probably be fine, but it will be a bit of a bummer. The remainder of this piece is influenced strongly by Fantilli and I should put it out there that I've heard Michigan may dip back into the portal for an experienced scorer if they get bad news about Fantilli. 

The next center below Fantilli on the depth chart ought to be Frank Nazar III. We never really saw the best Nazar has to offer this season, something I can say as a huge fan of his potential coming in. Fully healthy and with a full offseason to get ready, Nazar should be electric and a legit 1C at the NCAA level, regardless of what happens with Fantilli. TJ Hughes figures to be next after Nazar, fine slotting in as your 2 or 3 down the middle depending on the status of Fantilli. I have no worries about Hughes in that role. 

A player you could play all over the lineup but is listed as a center on Elite Prospects is incoming freshman Garrett Schifsky. Schifsky is one of the top recruits that Michigan is bringing in, a successful junior player who was All-USHL Third Team this season after leading Waterloo with 52 points, good for 24th in league scoring. Having already turned 20, Schifsky is the sort of college-ready overager with good junior production that Michigan doesn't get a ton of but makes programs like Ohio State very successful. If Fantilli is back, I assume Schifsky plays the wing. If Fantilli leaves, he'd be a decent candidate to play 3rd line C. 

[David Wilcomes]

Another option if Fantilli leaves would be to play Gavin Brindley at center, though if #19 returns, Brindley should be right back on his wing. We didn't see Brindley play much center this year but he has that ability, even if his pro career is likely going to be on the wing. It looks more likely than not that Brindley will go in the first round of the draft in June and he is one of the players I'm most excited about watching this fall. He improved substantially in the second half of this past season and should be a major piece of the 2023-24 offense. 

Filling out the top six on the wing are Dylan Duke and Rutger McGroarty, who both have confirmed returns to Michigan for their junior and sophomore seasons, respectively. Duke is probably who he is, but that's a very solid contributor who gives the team some jam they don't otherwise have a ton of. McGroarty, on the other hand, I expect to take a major step forward. He flashed moments of elite talent, but was overall a tad disappointing for a lottery pick. Bigger forwards sometimes can take longer to unlock and I'd look for him to improve considerably. 

Also likely to be in the top six is incoming true freshman Nick Moldenhauer, who also joined Schifsky on the All-USHL Third Team. Moldenhauer is younger than Schifsky and with a higher ceiling, a 3rd round pick in 2022 by his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs. He also could've been picked even higher. Many scouts believed he had late first/early second round talent, but a draft-eligible season that included illness and a terrifying cut by a skate blade took their toll on his stock. Back healthy in his D+1 season, Moldenhauer scored 75 points in 55 games, third in the USHL in scoring. Moldenhauer's point totals are a bit inflated by virtue of playing on the loaded Chicago Steel, but he's a good prospect. Moldenhauer has puck skill and is good shooter, a bit undersized but hasn't even turned 19 yet. I see him as a replacement for Mackie Samoskevich, who signed with Florida, though obviously Moldenhauer won't be as good as Samoskevich at the beginning. 

[Bill Rapai]

Samoskevich was the only piece in the top six to depart for Michigan, while the bottom of the lineup had a handful, Nolan Moyle being out of eligibility and Eric Ciccolini (Clarkson) and Nick Granowicz (UMass-Lowell) portaling out. None of these players are major losses, but they were known commodities. Left standing from the bottom six are Jackson Hallum, who was a decent player and will look to improve as he adds more skill refinement to his blazing speed, and Mark Estapa, who has some moments but ultimately needs to work on staying out of the penalty box. I'd pencil both in as incumbents but after that it's a pretty wide open picture. 

In a world where Fantilli departs, Estapa and Hallum may well be on the third line with Schifsky, forcing Brandon Naurato to construct a new fourth line. Candidates include returners Kienan Draper and Philippe Lapointe, as well as incoming freshman Tanner Rowe, and portal acquisitions Chase Pletzke and Joshua Eernisse. Draper played a surprising amount in year #1 but made little on-ice impact. He does have the advantage of being a C. Philippe Lapointe has now spent three years in the program, scoring six goals and eleven points in 49 career games. Both of these players could plug in if needed but I think they'll need to seize the roles, rather than having them handed to them. 

Pletzke was a pickup from Miami (OH), an in-state guy out of Bay City who played four years for the RedHawks with one of the odder collegiate stat lines of all time. Last season he played in 20 games with zero points, which generally in NCAA Hockey means you're the 19th skater and not playing much at all, but a -11 suggests he was taking shifts. In which case I have no idea how Pletzke ended up with zero points. The year before that he had a Kirill Marchenko-esque 7-0-7 stat line, which is funny and weird in and of itself. His most productive year was as a freshman in 2019-20, 14 points in 28 games. The complexion of the stats indicates a defense-first player and the ability to play center is a plus. Unfortunately there's little sign of any offense here and I'm not sure how much of that is Pletzke (probably quite a bit) and how much of that is the anemic Miami team he played on (73 goals in 36 games). At most he can probably be your 4th line center if you grit your teeth, at worst he's a perennial scratch who's happy to get a masters at Michigan. 

[St. Thomas Athletics]

Eernisse was the most recent portal pickup, out of St. Thomas, whose decision to flip to the Maize & Blue led to an incident at the college hockey coaches convention that I could be described as a "confrontation", perhaps a magnitude below true "physical altercation". The St. Thomas coaching staff wasn't happy about losing Eernisse, who was tied for second on the team in points (21) and alone at second in goals (14). Eernise looks like a 4th line type at a high level program like Michigan, never a big scorer in the USHL and his point totals on St. Thomas are conditional on the role he was in, a role he won't get at Michigan. Still, already 21 years old, there's nothing wrong with taking a guy with a year of NCAA hockey under his belt to be an option to fit on your 4th line and potentially have him improve with multiple years of eligibility remaining. 

The only incoming forward I haven't mentioned who seems certain to come to Michigan this fall is Rowe. He's an older player, turning 21 in August, and he scored 15 points in 58 USHL games this season for Omaha. An in-stater out of Calumet, Rowe would seem to be the sort of player whose ceiling is a 4th line center. His age makes him more of a plug-and-play option and I'd think Naurato is probably hoping for Garrett Van Wyhe 2.0 out of Rowe. Their stats in the USHL and age when enrolling at Michigan are similar, though GVW's offensive totals were superior. 

A final bucket of players contains two possible freshmen, one of whom may or may not be coming in and one who probably won't be. The one I'm not sure about is Mikey Burchill, who scored 38 points in 61 games this season in the USHL with Dubuque. He was tied for 4th on that team in scoring and profiles as a player who could start on a 3rd line and maybe develop into a more productive college player. However, Burchill only just turned 18 last month and when I spoke to people more connected about this, they indicated that Burchill may be deferred a year, which would be totally fine given his age. 

Even more likely to be deferred is Brian Nicholas, who has Michigan listed for 2023-24 on his Elite Prospects page but haven't heard much about. He only scored seven points in the USHL this past season and at 18, deferral seems very likely. It's also probably the better option for his development. It wouldn't surprise me if Michigan is also waiting on Fantilli to decide whether to push Burchill/Nicholas back a year or not. 

[David Wilcomes]

How it fits together: Putting together everything I said, this is how I'd put it together if Fantilli is returning: 

McGroarty - Fantilli - Brindley 

Duke - Nazar - Moldenhauer 

Hallum - TJ Hughes - Schifsky 

Eernisse - ??? - Estapa 

The question mark spot could be Rowe, Draper, Pletzke or Lapointe (Burchill too if he comes in). I'd think perhaps Pletzke is most likely to be in the lineup, but it could easily be any of the others. It goes without saying this lineup would be a loaded team that would probably be the best forward group in the NCAA next season. 

If Fantilli isn't returning, this is how it could look: 

McGroarty - Nazar - Brindley 

Duke - TJ Hughes - Moldenhauer 

Hallum - Schifsky - Estapa 

Eernisse - ??? - ???

Again, the question marks could be Rowe, Draper, Pletzke, Lapointe, and Burchill/Nicholas if they were in the picture. Picking up someone out of the portal and bumping Estapa down makes a lot of sense for this scenario. Still would be a forward group that could support a very good hockey team but missing the superstar talent that Minnesota will have in Cooley, for example. Come back, Adam!!!!