Jimmystats: Don Brown and the Three-Star Mafia
What's Don Brown's hit rate on the three-stars he's recruiting? Is it substantially better than the norm? Should we #TrustTheCoaches? I got a question in the commitment alert for Massachusetts end T.J. Guy last week:
Good for the kid, but I just don’t get Don Brown recruiting. This is an actual question and me not being a smart ass, but how many of his generic 3 stars that he has brought in on defense turn out to be elite/high level contributors? It’s almost like he never realized he left Boston College and can now recruit a different type of player. Part of me is looking forward to seeing what the next DC has on the recruiting front. I want a high-level recruiting DC.
And the answer became this post.
Let's get the first part out of the way: recruiting stars are correlated with player success. There are hundreds of articles, including dozens on this site, which show it. Some of my own studies in the past concluded you should expect a 50% hit rate (a player in contention for All Big Ten or better) on five-stars, a 25% hit-rate on four-stars, and for the huge mass of three-stars to be on a similar curve. I prefer to use a scale not levels, because there's a huge difference between a top-300 four-star and a top-50 one.
Things get even cloudier in the 3-star pile because there's virtually no rating lower than that any more. Some guys are three-stars because they play on a team of four-stars against the best high school competition, but aren't expected to get any better. Others are three-stars because Michigan offered them and the recruiting sites have maybe one scout who's seen him play point guard (Ronnie Bell). Still others have high ceilings but need to dramatically change their bodies or something, or certain specific skills that are top-notch but not the size to play the position where those skills are normally used, e.g. Josh Uche.
You also have to take into account what Michigan could get instead. Fretting about a guy outside the top-1,000 with a UConn offer is understandable, but keep in mind the use of the scholarship is being judged against replacement. Some of the dumbest talk around recruiting comes from people who think four- and five-stars would jump into the class if the scholarships weren't used up on MSU-level recruits. Even if it was true that Michigan's coaches were just taking lower-ranked players because blue chips are too much effort, there's no way for us to know or judge that. Assume that the coaching staff puts a reasonable amount of effort into recruiting, and that if they offer the #44-ranked DE when the #12 DE is in-state and telling people he'd come if called, the coaches preferred the #44 guy.
The valid question is one of evaluation: if they do go after #44, does that mean #44 should be #5, or is something else going on? Maybe history knows.
[After THE JUMP: a trip through Don Brown recruiting at Michigan and previous]
Don Brown at Michigan
The later we go the less we know, since the first class Brown recruited would be fifth year seniors this season. The cut-off was based on my average starts metric: if you're below four I'll bring you up.
2016: 5th Year Seniors in 2020 or graduated
Khaleke and Uche, QED. [Patrick Barron]
| Name | Ht/Wt* | ☆s | Rivals | ESPN | 24/7 | Composite | Scout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlo Kemp | 6'3/255 | 3.95 | 5.8 (#11 WDE), #215 OVR | 80 (#42 DE) | 88 (#20 SDE), #437 OVR | 0.8954 (#13 SDE), #303 OVR | 4* (#37 DE) |
| Khaleke Hudson | 6'0/205 | 3.87 | 5.7 (#26 ATH), #14 PA | 78 (#40 S) | 90 (#13 S), #311 OVR | 0.8819 (#23 S), #384 OVR | 3* (#24 ATH), #273 OVR |
| Elysee Mbem-Bosse | 6'2/232 | 3.78 | 5.8 (#15 ILB), #31 GA | 80 (#13 ILB) | 86 (#31 ILB), #838 OVR | 0.8702 (#17 ILB), #487 OVR | 3* (#26 ILB) |
| Josh Uche | 6'2/212 | 3.63 | 5.7 (#22 WDE), #50 FL | 76 (#44 OLB) | 85 (#59 OLB), #1011 OVR | 0.8559 (#46 OLB), #715 OVR | 3* (#53 DE) |
| Josh Metellus | 6'0/187 | 3.59 | 5.6 (#NR S), #94 FL | 80 (#22 S) | 84 (#78 S), #1211 OVR | 0.8541 (#47 S), #737 OVR | 3* (#88 S) |
| Michael Dwumfour | 6'2/286 | 3.52 | 5.5 (#NR SDE), #24 NJ | 78 (#48 DT) | 84 (#75 DT), #1226 OVR | 0.8454 (#59 DT), #963 OVR | 3* (#56 DT) |
| Devin Gil | 6'1/205 | 3.50 | 5.5 (#NR S) | 78 (#46 S) | 83 (#84 S), #1272 OVR | 0.8429 (#66 S), not ranked | 3* (#63 OLB) |
DE/DT CARLO KEMP was the scion of an NFL house, a low four-star or high three-star projected to SDE despite DT'ish characteristics because of his size, a low-floor type who had an early growth spurt and was not expected to get much bigger than 280, meaning the ceiling was a Jibreel Black or Greg Banks. He became a well-liked program guy, too-undersized NT who shined against Army and got abused by Ohio State last season, his first at nose.
VIPER KHALEKE HUDSON, was the guy we were most excited about after his Peppers if Peppers Was Born to Play Linebacker film at the Semper Fi game came out. Underrated in part because he was too much of a linebacker to rate as a safety and too much of a safety to project to linebacker, the hybrid role Michigan recruited him for was a perfectly natural fit.
ILB ELYSEE MBEM-BOSSE was a truck-stick linebacker whose best attribute was blitzing as a quasi-fourth lineman. That is useful in 3-3-5 defenses and some 3-4s, but mental health issues derailed his career before he could prove the usefulness of such a player. Schematically, Michigan could have used someone like that, but looking at the ILB depth chart it's hard to see how they'd have fit him in.
EDGE JOSH UCHE was a sleek EDGE player who's too small for DE and too DE-ish for linebacker, but I was super-stoked about because of his potential as an anti-spread weapon. They rated him a generic three-star because 212-pound guys have to do a lot to their bodies to be effective as hand-down defensive ends, and Uche hadn't shown the versatility to be a modern outside linebacker. Michigan used him as a pass rush specialist and he grew into a find DE and Linebacker. He burned his redshirt unnecessarily but would have been off to the NFL this year if he hadn't.
FS JOSH METELLUS is a good way to know if the person you're arguing with is worth bothering. A mainstay for three years in Michigan's secondary, Metellus's physical limitations did cost Michigan in alignment, but that was a small issue that was never really about him so much as the other safeties he played with. Small and cornerbackish, he didn't have the truck stick hits nor the flashy plays that recruiting sites look for, but for what he provided he's one of the most underrated recruits in recent memory. Also: Flanagan, which helped win Devin Bush Jr.
DT MICHAEL DWUMFOUR was a first step in search of a football player, a close friend of Rashan Gary, and a PSU commit. He came extremely raw player with a ceiling of "Mo Hurst but big." After super-hyped offseason in 2018 that turned out to mean bupkis, Dwumfour battled injuries and was surprisingly not offered a 5th year, which suggests the coaches were seeing things our scouting was not. What we saw was a terrible run defender and promising pass-rusher.
WLB DEVIN GIL was Flanagan's other safety, but a real flier recruit for Michigan as a guy they hoped would be able to pack on pounds and play a safety-ish OLB role. This Gil surprisingly managed, and in 2018, as a redshirt sophomore, Devin got the majority of snaps from platoonmate Josh Ross. Our scouting thought this should have been reversed, and last season Ross and then Bush-like Cam McGrone passed Gil, who will play his final year of eligibility for USF.
Class Summary Over Replacement: Uche, Hudson, Metellus, and Kemp were/are major contributors, and Gil and Dwumfour were good risks attached to 2019 1st rounders. Both came closer to their ceilings than their floors. Mbem-Bosse is easy to dismiss in retrospect, but was also a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. This class did have a bit of a scholarship crunch, and really could have used another defensive tackle or two.
As to that: Michigan pursued high four-stars like Boss Tagaloa, Jordan Elliott, and Chris Daniels, getting commitments from two of them at points, but ultimately striking out on all three. Just below that trio was Naquan Jones, who's projected to be a decent starter for MSU this year. The failure to secure a future DT came back to bite in 2018 and 2019, and is still hurting in 2020. Of course a lot of that was out of the staff's control.
Trust the coaches? 6/7. Only straight miss was EMB, and that happened separate from talent issues.
2017: RS Juniors or Seniors
No Gary? No problem. [Bryan Fuller]
| Name | Ht/Wt* | ☆s | Rivals | ESPN | 24/7 | Composite | Scout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin St-Juste | 6'3/188 | 3.97 | 5.8 (#20 CB), #229 OVR | 75 (#81 CB) | 95 (#13 CB), #94 OVR | 0.8902 (#37 CB), #332 OVR | 3* (#39 CB) |
| Phillip Paea | 6'4/278 | 3.86 | 5.7 (#20 OG) | 80 (#30 DT) | 89 (#30 DT), #360 OVR | 0.8721 (#37 DT), #456 OVR | 3* (#28 DT) |
| J'Marick Woods | 6'3/205 | 3.83 | 5.7 (#45 S) | 80 (#22 S) | 87 (#45 S), #563 OVR | 0.8838 (#29 S), #377 OVR | 4* (#27 S) |
| Kwity Paye | 6'4/235 | 3.69 | 5.7 (#35 WDE) | 80 (#26 DE) | 86 (#45 WDE), #836 OVR | 0.8646 (#32 WDE), #548 OVR | 3* (#73 DE) |
BENJAMIN ST-JUSTE can barely be called a 3-star since 24/7 rocketed him up to their top-100 after he showed out at camps with NFL hips on a lengthy body, and Rivals ultimately got him into solid four-star range, meaning sleepy ESPN and about-to-be-bought-out Scout.com were just behind. Medical issues forced him to leave Michigan (I've been told this was 100% Michigan's doctors) but Minnesota picked him up and he was All Big Ten for them last year, which rubs.
PHILLIP PAEA was ranked as a guard by Rivals because like us they thought his highest upside was on offense. He's been virtually invisible since moving back to DT, because Michigan is set at guard.
J'MARICK WOODS played early for Michigan though his limited uses were evident when he did. A hit stick safety, Woods probably would have fit better at Viper. He left the team last year when he was passed by Daxton Hill.
KWITY PAYE is the most similar to some of the 3-stars Michigan's grabbed since, but nobody can say he hasn't been a major success. Not a great pass rusher, Paye has been adequate at that while matching Rashan Gary for run defense. He's also a coach favorite and likely team captain. Didn't start playing football until late so maybe not exactly like the other questionable East Coasters.
Class summary over replacement: The 2017 cycle began with Michigan looking to come in among the elites, but fell back to the ND/PSU range in the end. If anything this is the class where Don Brown went after the golden eggs over diamonds in the rough. They took local 4-star Jaylen Kelly-Powell but let Detroit Jesuit 3-star safety Scott Nelson go to Wisconsin, where he's been serviceable. Woods was a high-three star from Alabama whom the Alabama schools didn't want; meanwhile Connecticut cornerback Brandon Sebastien went to Boston College and Ifeatu Melifonwu of Massachusetts, a who-dat with an NFL brother who played for Brown, slipped away to Syracuse in the late numbers crunch. Melifonwu had one magnificent appearance at cornerback then got injured last year; Cuse fans think he's going to be the best player on their team for the next few years.
Trust the coaches? 2/4. They had a huge class of four-star DE/DT prospects who didn't work out, but really could have used more defensive backs. St-Juste is hardly a 3-stars. Paea probably should have gone somewhere that needed him on offense. Woods had limitations and a skill (hitting) that is overrated in scouting. If anything they went with higher-rated guys over targets Brown added to the board, and there's reason to believe the experience convinced Brown and Harbaugh to trust their own scouting more.
2018: RS Sophomores or Juniors
They're long, not strong, but down to get their friction on. So, fellas? [Patrick Barron]
| Name | Ht/Wt* | ☆s | Rivals | ESPN | 24/7 | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemon Green | 6'2/165 | 3.96 | 5.8 (#39 CB), #42 TX | 80 (#46 CB), #80 Midlands | 88 (#41 CB), #458 OVR | 0.8891 (#35 CB), #382 OVR |
| Taylor Upshaw | 6'4/240 | 3.73 | 5.7 (#25 SDE), #75 FL | 78 (#68 DE), #318 SE | 87 (#22 SDE), #507 OVR | 0.8742 (#25 SDE), #562 OVR |
| Sammy Faustin | 6'2/190 | 3.63 | 5.7 (#62 CB) | 79 (#50 CB), #267 SE | 86 (#86 CB), #859 OVR | 0.8729 (#54 CB), #593 OVR |
| Vincent Gray | 6'2/180 | 3.61 | 5.7 (#60 CB), #14 MI | 76 (#82 CB), #108 MW | 86 (#72 CB), #737 OVR | 0.8667 (#64 CB), #703 OVR |
| Julius Welschof | 6'6/248 | 3.59 | 5.5 (#NR SDE) | 78 (#66 DE), #1 Germany | 90 (#14 SDE), #332 OVR | 0.8694 (#28 SDE), #648 OVR |
| Michael Barrett | 6'0/215 | 3.54 | 5.6 (#NR ATH), #69 GA | 78 (#49 ATH), #277 SE | 86 (#71 ATH), #842 OVR | 0.8635 (#61 ATH), #754 OVR |
| German Green | 6'2/168 | 3.31 | 5.5 (#NR S) | 74 (#100 CB), #218 Midlands | 84 (#102 CB), #1274 OVR | 0.8444 (#98 CB), #1236 OVR |
I stopped using Scout because they were juniors when Scout last updated their rankings
CB GEMON GREEN was barely a 3-stars, but 24/7 had him one and his pursuit was three-starry, so I'm counting him. It was clear why he was ranked where he was, as a Channing Stribling-like prospect who had enough speed for college outside and size to make up for some of it. He was also extremely scrawny so judging him for not seeing the field yet is premature; this was going to be a big spring for him.
SDE TAYLOR UPSHAW, like Carlo Kemp, came from good bloodlines, but Upshaw is also two inches taller and came to football very late. He already seems to be on track to replace Kwity Paye one day. If Kemp was a 3-star because he was already close to his ceiling, Upshaw's the opposite: his ceiling is first-day NFL prospect, but he was coming in with a very very long way to go.
SS SAMMY FAUSTIN was the next super-long DB in the super-long DBs class, and also the most raw, having played in Puerto Rico. Again, this spring was going to be the crucible for him. He did pop up on the strong safety two-deep last year so there's hope, but program rumblings suggest he's more J'Marick Woods than Josh Metellus as 3-star safeties go.
CB VINCENT GRAY was the replacement player, as he was snatched up late when 5-stars like Michigan closed weakly. He's also been the only one of his huge class of huge DBs to play regularly, serving in the Brandon Watson role last season and projected to start in 2020. Unfortunately he comes with Watson's same limitations versus elite receivers.
DE/DT JULIUS WELSCHOF appeared on the nose tackle depth chart last year, but if the developmental prospect from Germany is ever going to be (MSU DT) Raekwan Williams as a 6'6" nose tackle who can't be zone blocked, that's probably another year away still.
ATH MICHAEL BARRETT was a quarterback in high school, a three-star because only triple-option teams were interested in him as such. He's since been moved to defense, and figures to compete either at Viper this year or on the two-deep for WLB. Since we haven't seen him play much except on special teams he's hard to judge.
FS GERMAN GREEN is Gemon's twin, was the closest thing to a two-star because he spent his camping year injured, and hasn't threatened a depth chart since he arrived. Like his brother, he was under 170 and over 6'2" when he got here, so judgment should wait a bit. Since Gemon hasn't produced yet, German's role in enticing his brother to commit is moot.
Class summary over replacement: It is starting to look like their "let's overreact to slot fades!" approach to defensive backs in the 2018 class was a mistake. Less clear is whom they might have targeted instead. Guys at the top of their board like Houston Griffith (Notre Dame) and Josh Jobe (Bama) went elsewhere because Michigan's recruiting pull wasn't great after a 7-5 season. Myles Sims was supposed to be the best of the group they got, but he flamed out quickly.
The guy you could circle perhaps is Kalon Gervin, a 5'11" Cass Tech cornerback who went to Michigan State. Gervin started the Ohio State game for an injured Josh Butler last year, and got burned up, so he wasn't the answer; he probably was still worth going after since speed wasn't so much his issue as being thrown into the fire against Ohio State when you're in year 2 of learning Dantonio's Quarters defense. For the record ND people claimed Gervin's decommitment from the Irish was academics-based, but our Cass Tech guy says that's just sour grapes. What is true is Michigan pursued Gervin all the way.
Trust the coaches? Incomplete/7 but the early returns are not good. The 2017 run on tall defensive backs has yielded just Vincent Gray, and Gray to date has been more of a guy you cover over or hope to replace with a more talented option.
The 2019 class all redshirted last season and we got no spring ball, so there's no way to judge them yet. But for completion's sake:
- S Quinten Johnson was injured last year but figures into the viper competition whenever Michigan plays again, which is a good sign.
- DE/DT Michael Morris is a long-term DE/DT type
- CB DJ Turner appeared in practice last year but didn't play any meaningful snaps
- ILB Charles Thomas was a 4-star to two sites and a 3-star only because Rivals had him much much lower, presumably because he's another Devin Bush-sized dude, which doesn't bother us.
- DE Gabe Newburg is a developmental prospect to unwrap in two years
- ATH George Johnson was a QB recruited as a slot receiver who was pushed to the secondary because slot is full; it'll be some time to see if he's going to be something.
- SAM Joe Velazquez got an offer because those were available and that does baseball a solid, but might be a shot at an Uche who knows.
Don Brown Before Michigan
Milano led the NFL in takeaways in 2018 [NFL.com]
One of the things we liked a lot about Brown when he got here was his reputation for finding NFL players in the unlikeliest of places (e.g. New England). In fact dating back to 2009 at UMD he's never had a class that failed to produce an NFL draft pick, quite an accomplishment when those stops include UConn and Boston College. I'm just going to name the hits because all of his pre-Michigan recruits were three-stars if they weren't two. Note a couple of better-known "Don Brown guys" like former UConn CB Byron Jones, BC safety Justin Simmons, DT Connor Wujcak, and LB Steven Daniels were already on their respective campuses when Brown arrived.
2009 (Maryland):
CB Dexter McDougle, #545 composite, #28 ATH, #23 in Virginia. 3rd round pick of the Jets in 2014, bounced around since.
2010 (Maryland):
NT Darius Kilgo, #1291 composite, #90 DT. Sixth round pick in 2015 and stuck in the NFL, though never with one team for more than a year. Two Super Bowl rings though, since he was with the Broncos in 2015 and Patriots the following year.
OLB Matt Robinson, #1184 composite, #85 ATH. A legit 6'3", Robinson flashed early in his career as a rangy/tall safety, but injuries as a sophomore forced a move to linebacker role. There he was all-ACC as a junior, once piling up 17 tackles in one game, but injuries piled up and prevented him from having an NFL career.
2011 (UConn):
FS Andrew Adams, #1737 to the composite, #127 cornerback, was a four-year starter for UConn as a 5'11" free safety. He's been in the league since, starting one year for the Giants, most recently with Tampa Bay.
2012 (UConn):
SS Obi Melifonwu, #1377 in the composite, #96 safety, #8 player in Massachusetts was a long-limbed athlete out of Grafton, Mass. A four-year starter (after a redshirt year to gain weight), he was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2017 and has been with the Patriots since.
2013 (Boston College):
OLB Matt Milano was Khaleke Hudson before it was cool. Not ranked by the composite, he was the #95 safety and #196th player in Florida as a recruit. Milano had 30 TFLs in his two years as a starter for BC, and went in the 5th round to, and become a rotational WLB for the Buffalo Bills.
S John Johnson III, now the starting free safety for the LA Rams, was also unranked. In fact 247 has him as a 2-star, the 146th safety, and #43 player in Maryland. He played cornerback then moved to safety for the back end of his star career.
2014 (Boston College):
Harold Landry was a BC version of Chase Winovich [The Atlantic]
LB Connor Strachan, as the #394 player, #16 ILB, and #1 prospect in Massachusetts was a virtual 5-star to BC. He had a solid career, was an undrafted free agent, and was also in the XFL this year.
OLB Harold Landry was #421 on the composite, the #22 WDE. He had 25 career sacks in an injury-shortened career. He was a 2nd round pick of the Tennessee Titans, who now use him as a 3-4 OLB.
CB Isaac Yiadom was #1030 on the composite and the #136 WR. Brown recruited him at cornerback and he was drafted in the 3rd round of 2018; he's been a Denver Bronco since.
CB Kamrin Moore was #1090 on the composite, and the #93 safety. He was a three-year starter at cornerback but got injured a few times late in his career. He went in the 6th round in 2018 but had his career derailed with an off-field assault charge. Last seen in the XFL.
LB Ty Schwab, #1288 composite, #59 ILB was 3rd team all-ACC twice, was an underrated WLB, made an XFL roster.
2015 (Boston College):
SDE Zach Allen was #987 on the composite. He became a 3rd round pick after a career of three season with double-digit TFLs (10, 15.5, 15).
SS Will Harris Jr. (son of the old Bills receiver) was ranked #1478 on the composite and the #113th ATH. The four-year starter was 2x All-ACC. The Lions moved up to draft him in Round 3 last year.
WDE Wyatt Ray didn't even get on the composite rankings (he was the #47 WDE). He had 9 sacks in 2018 and signed as a UDFA with the Browns. He's currently hanging on as a pass rush specialist with the Jets.
DT Ray Smith also wasn't ranked on the composite. He was the 78th DT and the #144 prospect in California. Smith was a solid plugger at nose guard, and 3rd team all-ACC in 2018 and 2019.
CB/S Lukas Denis was #1533 on the composite, the #140 cornerback and #8 player in Massachusetts. He was 2nd team all-ACC twice and was picked up as a UDFA by Tampa Bay.
2016:
They didn't get to play for Brown but they're his recruits so I'll mention a couple of 2016s: CB Hamp Cheevers (#2788 to the composite, #188 ATH) was 1st team all-ACC in 2018 and left early for the NFL (undrafted). ILB Max Richardson is a Devin Bush-like rabid squirrel who was a potential early entry until a knee injury last year changed his plans.
Trust the Coaches?
The track record on the defensive line in really good, and the safeties are out of this world. If anything I'd like Don to use his instincts for defensive backs a little more. It's possible, however, he was using an athleticism metric for scouting those guys that other programs and services have since caught onto.
It does seem like lately there isn't a Zach Allen-like player Brown doesn't like. I've justified it in my mind as trying to do with DTs—the other position where recruiting stars and college production tend to align more closely—what Brown used to do with safeties and cornerbacks. Just look at this list of SDE-like players since the 2018 class:
- Julius Welschof, 6'6/248 (was 278 as of last year)
- Taylor Upshaw, 6'4/240 (265)
- Michael Morris, 6'6/260 (262)
- Gabe Newburg, 6'5/230 (250)
- Braiden McGregor, 6'6/248
- Aaron Lewis, 6'5/235
- Kris Jenkins, 6'4/239
- T.J. Guy, 6'4/230
- Dominic Giudice, 6'4/250
If that's for one position it looks insane. If it's for three positions it's pretty standard. Upshaw and McGregor are ends, but the rest of the guys could grow into something else, with Kris Jenkins, Julius Welschof, Mike Morris, and Dom Giudice expected to fill out into 3-techs and nose tackles. Michigan also might be trying to move to more 30 fronts—they added two defensive coordinators steeped in zone blitzing this offseason, and their current DE pair of Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye already uses two guys better at taking on blocks than rushing around them.
I know it's weird for us when the first defensive commitment for 2021 is just below Quintin Woods on my comps chart, and they're followed by two players from Massachusetts not ranked much higher. The only guy from above who was a solid 4-star is Braiden McGregor. Given what Brown did at BC with guys like this, patience is prudent.
If anything that trust goes further with the linebackers, the position Brown coaches himself. Devin Bush Jr. wasn't a five-star because he was too small, and the sites said the same things about Cam McGrone, Charles Thomas, and Osman Savage. If you're using them to judge Casey Phinney however you're extrapolating too far, since they're very different players. If anything, Phinney seems more of a fit for the zone blitzing schemes they're supposedly incorporating: a defensive fullback-type like Scott McClintock or Sam Sword who's too large for even a decent Big Ten offensive lineman to anchor against when you add a head of steam (Phinney could also just be a fullback). Brown didn't have many ILBs make it to the NFL—his starters were often guys already on the roster when he arrived—but he also never had a bad linebacking corps. His scheme forces the ILBs to match with running backs but doesn't care that much if the backer is taking on blocks or dodging them.
I don't know if we can say the same about the defensive backs. The guys he found at Maryland, UConn, and Boston College seemed to find their way on the field early, and were possessed of a high degree of natural athleticism. Some were tall and lanky like the 2017s, but there's also a guy who literally broke a footspeed record at the NFL combine. Michigan does now have a bunch of that type on hand, thanks to Partridge's work in the 2020 class.
I think the lesson here is Brown intends to build his defense like Clemson's: a solid base of players selected for specific traits he needs, mixed with superior athletes. Given Michigan's recruiting reach right now with the state of the Ohio State rivalry and misfortune to not have any Big Ten championships, it would seem the program's doing what they can.
April 21st, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
This feels like a lot of effort and content to rationalize subpar recruiting. Brown's reputation of doing more with less is legendary, but "we ain't in Kansas anymore" - or in this case Boston College.
The question now is, can Brown do more with more, but first this would require him / our staff to prove the ability to recruit at an elite level. Brown's defenses have proven they can beat any team not named Ohio State (Bama, Clemson, other elites fall here as well). The problem is that the expectation at UM is to not give up 60 points to our arch rival.
The past 2 years have exposed what happens when you sprinkle in elite players with a bunch of regular guys. Elite offenses like OSU find the hole in the defense and exploit it ruthlessly. Until we have a full roster with minimal holes, we won't be competing with the elites.
April 21st, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
Elite offenses carve up any defense in college football 2020. Get used to it too; rule changes and offensive philosophy changes are not going to magically revert back to what you saw in the 90’s. It’s basically flag football with pads on from here until whatever year all contact is banned.
Yes, I wish the defense would be a little more ‘bend and don’t break’ than straight ‘F you, we’re going to kill you’ but the main problem is the head guy in charge will not accept the fact that TOP is no longer important and you need to go after quality opposing teams with everything you’ve got on offense (especially via the passing game) until the game is over. The philosophy has to be, on offense, 40 points ASAP if you want to compete with the big boys. We refuse to do this and things probably won’t get better until we do.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
Agree. But the bar need be set higher than 60 points per game against OSU, no? The last 2 years exposed how having 1 glaring weakness in your defense (be it a slow slot corner or no depth at DT) will be exploited by modern college offenses with elite athletes and coaching staffs.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Sure, but the defense never gave up 62 against OSU. I’m not going to ding the defense for two TD’s they weren’t even on the field for. But yes, I agree everything was poor in that game. OSU even gave the offense a 7 point gift before halftime and they looked clueless as well.
I am in full agreement they have to scale back the aggression of this defense against the good teams; it has to be accepted that letting the other team drive down the field without surrendering a big play and forcing them to kick a field goal is about the most optimal outcome you can expect.
But going back to my point, in the OSU game last year, the snowball started because, after the opening TD Drive we did this: Punt, Punt, TD, Fumble, FG, Punt, Fumble, FG. Game, set, match.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
TOP has nothing to do with Don Browns defense getting carved up two years in a row.
The last two years we rolled out an aggressive game plan on offense against OSU as you clamor for and we still got steamrolled.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Maybe Jim Harbaugh is producing mentally weak teams. One fumble and all a sudden it's a trainwreck? And yet, that's exactly what happens.
This team is physically and mentally soft.
Maybe Jim Harbaugh is producing mentally weak teams.
Between the pointless revenge tour swagger, the shoe untying, and the trash talking, you’d think we have owned OSU for years. Say what you want about OSU but their destruction of us the last two years has been cold, calculated, and business-like. We come into these games with a falsely inflated sense of confidence.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
I’d hardly call never using tempo and the whopping 26 run plays we called for 91 yards in 2019 or the 40 run plays (non sack adjusted) we called in 2018 as “aggressive”.
Tempo does not equate to aggressive.
If you didn't think we rolled out a great gameplan on offense that last two years, I don't know what to tell you.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Aggressive game plan that wasn't executed. Keeping up with OSU's offense, i.e. staying within 1-2 scores and putting their offense in pressure situations is the defense M needs. Make OSU think and worry a little.
I agree 100%. This is more of an Offensive Issue than Defensive one at this point. To be elite in CFB these days you have to win a shoot out. Ball control offence cealing is Wisconsin. Michigan is currently stuck some where in between. In my opinion the D have been elite since Brown has been here ;Stats dont lie. Its the offence that is Still playing catch up.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
Elite offenses carve up ALL defenses. Doesn’t matter how good the defense is. Sure, you’ll find an off day for a top offense here or there. But they’re going to score on everybody 99% of the time.
Fun fact: Michigan held Alabama’s elite offense to their lowest point total of the season. Would you call allowing 35 points a good showing by the Michigan defense? Not likely. Many people on this blog were full of complaints about our defensive showing.
You need a defense good enough to slow those teams, and an offense capable of keeping up with them. THAT’S how you become elite. Michigan’s holes on defense (particularly at DT last year, and athleticism in the secondary in 2018) make it easy for teams with an elite offense to exploit it.
If you don’t have great DT play, Wisconsin is going to run all over you. If you don’t have an elite secondary, Ohio State and Bama’s gazelles are going to run by you. And if you DO have elite secondary, say hello to Najee Harris or JK Dobbins. It sucks, but they’re “elite offenses” for a reason. If you have a weakness, they will exploit it. There’s no way around. That’s where losing guys like Aubrey Solomon to the transfer portal and BSJ to injury/transfer hurts. The year might have gone a bit differently with a starting quality DT and an all conference corner. But alas, they left and we had two exploitable areas that were definitely exposed by top offenses.
If you’re sitting here expecting Michigan (or anyone for that matter) to have the athletes to hold an elite offense under 3-4 TDs, you’re going to be disappointed. Period. That’s just the way football is played today. The goal isn’t to stop them. It’s to have enough to slow them down and outscore them yourself.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Great post, I don’t get why (though I have my suspicions) so many people in this fan base cannot see this.
I think the fanbase can't see this because we've won once against OSU in two decades. We always have an excuse like, if Aubrey didn't transfer, or player X didn't go to the draft. That's why you need depth. It's not the fanbase, it's the results.
Elite teams have 2nd and 3rd rotation guys that are ready and able to fill in. 4* and 5* sophomores waiting their turn. We have a huge drop-off, hence, we get completely exploited if we have an injury (Mike Martin) or a player leave "early", David Long.
Having 3* players waiting to take those spots is a recipe for disaster.
Your “fun fact” doesn’t hold as much water when they were without their National Championship winning MVP QB.
I will agree the offense in that game was a bigger let down than the defense though. Our offense hasn’t done our defense many favors in any big games in the last 4 years.
Good post. It's like Michigan is half way there, a good defense but not an offense to match. It can't be overstated that the Michigan offense wasn't capable of keeping up the opposing "elite" tram's offense, ie OH State and 'Bama. When or if Michigan can put together an offense that resembles that of OH State, they'll be able to keep up with them of the scoreboard and then make it a game.
Why cant people just accept this and move on. You are spot on man!
I agree with your assessment on the way the current game is played. But, I think that leads to more of an indictment of the coaches than an alleviation of blame.
Harbaugh has shown nothing to indicate he understands that the offense needs to put up 40+ in big games to win. Even when the team gets behind he still runs the ball and methodically tries to move the ball as if it is the 80s. He also refuses to go for it on the plus side, and turtles in close games. Even against teams with inferior talent.
I thought hiring Gattis was a signal that maybe he was accepting the realities of the current game. Even Saban has. But, before the season even started Gattis was talking about establishing the run and being a run first team. That is great if you can run effectively, but balance for the sake of balance is absurd.
On the defensive side of the ball. You're correct, without elite DTs WI will probably run the ball effectively. But whose fault is it that there isn't good DT play? UM isn't going to have elite DT play yearly but they should be able to have actual DTs and depth. UM is rostering 5-6 TEs and a FB, sometimes 2, and have 2 true DTs, both of whom were freshman. That makes zero sense in the current game.
I don't think anyone expects UM to hold elite teams to under 3-4 scores. People understand that slowing a team down, and holding them to FGs, is the window that the offense needs to take advantage of. The problem is the defense isn't doing that. They have offered zero resistance to OSU the past two years. Don Brown's all or nothing results in nothing too much against good teams. It makes more sense to keep the ball in front of you, recruit guys who can get pressure with 4 down lineman, keep eyes in the backfield to try to create turnovers, and make the offense earn it. DB does the opposite. Way too many big plays.
I will give you PSU '19 and ND '18. DB's D did enough to win those.
Brown did more with more in 2016 (when his defense gave up essentially 3 points in regulation to OSU) and in 2017 when they were a dropped INT and a QB that could sustain some semblance of a second half drive away from another stellar performance but still gave their offense a great chance which is what you hope for against elite offenses.
Shame that Michigan's offenses were hot garbage those two years, and then a shame that Brown did get owned in 2018 and mostly in 2019.
Unfortunately, he's now in the position where he needs to do more with a little less because that initial momentum of recruiting has subsided a bit (even though the 2019 class was still very strong).
The interesting part about the 16 and 17 games was the D looked elite against JT Barrett. When he went down in 17 it was really the turning point of the game.
In fact, I would argue Haskins was one of the worst things that ever happened to Michigan. For as great as Meyer was, he never had QB’s that I would call great passers. Once he did, an elite offense became borderline ungodly. That’s really the main premise of my original post; there is very little you can do against a well oiled, quick tempo pass offense in this day and age because of the rules. It’s not going away either and I don’t get why our coaching staff won’t embrace this.
Yes, Michigan's excellent front 7s those teams had were much better equipped to deal with JT Barrett than Haskins although it's fair to have not been fully prepared for a passer first in 2017, inexcusable to have been so unprepared in 2018.
April 21st, 2020 at 11:12 PM ^
It also really helped having Mo Hurst at DT in '16 and '17
April 21st, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
The problem isn't 3 stars, its getting 3 stars when you aren't also getting top talent. There is a reason the hit rate is much better for 2016 than it was for 2018. The 3 star guys in 2016 were ones the coaches wanted in the middle of a very good class filled with guys they wanted suggesting it was scouting based. 2018 was a bunch of backup guys in a mediocre class suggesting it was what the coaches could get rather than scouting. If you have 7 3 star guys in class with 15 4 and 5 stars its going to look different than a class with 7 4 and 5 star guys and 15 3 stars. If you want to be elite you need to be in the former and no amount of scouting or #trust the coaches is going to get the latter to be a consistently elite team competing for championships.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
It's also lot easier for a 3* to do well when they are on the opposite side of a 5*.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^
But Michigan IS getting top talent. We always get more 4 and 5 stars than 3 stars. The last time we didn’t was a small class during a 8-5 season. The thing you’re complaining about has only occurred once and it occurred during a down year. Michigan is in the former every year.
Even looking at the number of three stars is weak. Getting a 3* ranked #400 is different than getting #1257, is it not?Ignoring that any player can outplay his ranking, Michigan recruits mostly high 3 stars when we get a three star. Not all three stars are the same. Just like not all four stars are the same. When Michigan gets a three star, it’s the highest ranked three stars. And we’ll take a flier on a couple lower ranked guys. But even those tend to be guys scouts overlooked for various reasons (Ronnie Bell).
I mean we aren't really getting top talent, we've signed 3 guys ranked in the top 100 in the last 3 classes.
You can try to dice it all you want but Michigan is recruiting closer to Wisconsin than it is to Ohio State and that is going to produce Wisconsin results, which might be solid and include some big years but also means always being a huge dog to OSU and never challenging for national titles. If you are comfortable with that than you should be comfortable with this recruiting but if you want to compete for national championships we aren't recruiting well enough.
Also the hit rate in this article is extremely generous. Dwumfour is getting at best rotation 3rd down snaps in obvious passing situations on a really good defensive line. The fact that he was a starter was less about how good he was and more about the state of the interior depth chart. Same thing with Vincent Gray at CB. Its great he played but if he is ever more than your third CB you don't have an elite secondary. Him being a top 2 CB for next year says more about our CB recruiting than it does about Vincent Gray being a starting level DB on an elite team.
Top 100 is arbitrary. They also got the 105th (Mazi Smith) and 108th (Trente Jones) players that year and 16 (!!) four or five stars ranked in the top 350. That was every bit the 8th ranked (1st in Big Ten) class in the country. Oklahoma and Clemson regularly go to the CFP with classes like that.
The 2020 class was a couple 5 stars below that class. Still had 14 top 350 four stars.
When you have more 4 stars than 3 stars, you can compete for conference titles and CFP spots with good coaching (heck, Wisconsin does with mostly 3 stars).
Fingers crossed that Gattis has figured out how to be a good coach after the first half of last season and that Brown can figure out a way to slow down OSU's offense. The talent is there.
Michigan's defensive recruiting under Don Brown:
2016: 6 - 4/5*; 6 - 3*
2017: 12 - 4/5*; 6 - 3*
2018: 3 - 4/5*; 8 - 3*
2019: 7 - 4/5*; 6 - 3*
2020: 9 - 4/5*; 5 - 3*
2021: 0 - 4/5*; 3 - 3*
Total: 37 - 4/5*; 34 - 3*
What Don Brown is responsible for during this time:
2016: 0 – 4/5*; 1 – 3*
2017: 2 – 4/5*; 2 – 3*
2018: 1 – 4/5*; 3 – 3*
2019: 1 – 4/5*; 2 – 3*
2020: 3 – 4/5*; 3 – 3*
2021: 0 – 4/5*; 3 – 3*
Total: 7 - 4/5*; 14 - 3*
Don Brown is a woeful recruiter. 67% of his recruits are 3*'s. The defensive recruiting success generally derived from Partridge, and Harbaugh allowed him to walk to Ole Miss. Our best recruiter from 2015-2020 is gone and now Don has to fill the void on defense. Good luck.
Brown is a not great recruiter for what you'd expect at Michigan (good at a place like BC though). He definitely needed guys like Mattison and Partridge to pick up the slack there. My guess is that Partridge had somewhat used up his recruiting usefulness after everyone that was in HS while he was coaching in NJ had aged into college. He no longer knew any players directly. So my guess is that's why Harbaugh let him walk.
Regardless, for Michigan to no longer be getting what they got from Mattison and Partridge is probably why defensive recruiting has been so bad for 2021. It is worrisome going forward.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
Those guys mentioned above are not world-beaters. Hudson was solid, but that's about it. He should glimpse of greatest (Minnesota), but in general, he was a good contributor. Uche running seam routes with Hamler still puzzles me. Paye, like Hudson, is a solid defender. Unless he blows up this year, he'll be another "dude".
"Dudes" aren't going to cut it with this program. Michigan should have no problem getting the best of the best when it comes to defensive players. Don has a history of displaying defenses in the Top 5, so why wouldn't a top-notch defensive player want to play in his aggressive scheme? Is it because it's a flawed defense? Is it because Don wants his "dudes"?
3* players are welcomed because they add much-needed depth to a program. However, when you're stacking your defense with "gems", you're going to get the results that we've seen against superior competition. Those recruits listed above do not paint a picture of a #5 team in the nation. Something has to change. Either we continue with the status quo or we look elsewhere.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
The “results you see against superior competition” happen to everyone. Doesn’t matter how well you recruit. Doesn’t matter how much talent is on your defense. Elite. Offenses. Will. Score.
Michigan held Alabama to their lowest point total of the season. 35. 35 points was their lowest scoring output. All year. Georgia recruits elite talent. There’s really no debate there, They also had the #1 scoring defense. LSU scored 37 on them. Alabama and LSU both recruit elite talent and have good defenses. They both scored over 40 when they played. They’re gonna score.
If you’re gonna sit here and hope for recruits who will stop Bama, LSU or OSU from scoring, you’re going to be disappointed. Michigan recruits these kids and they generally perform at an all conference level. I’m sorry if that’s not good enough, but it’s no better than anyone else is doing either. So I’m not really sure what you’re looking for.
Our defense has had flaws the last two years. That’s going to happen every now and then between injuries, transfers, and NFL entries. There’s no way to avoid it. And elite teams will be able to exploit it. Again, that will happen.
To be fair to Alabama, that game was over when the fourth quarter started. They were pounding the rock and chewing up the clock. Plus Tua wasn't playing, and their 3* back-up QB destroyed former 5* QB Shea.
With that being said, Michigan has to be better on offense; no doubt. Gattis's first year had its ups and downs. QB play is still weak. The mentality of the players is soft. The offense showed zero tempo and the ability to manage a two-minute offense. A lot of people think it will be better this year because we have two new QBs and another year in the system. I'll hold off on that optimism until Michigan actually shows it.
If you’re gonna sit here and hope for recruits who will stop Bama, LSU or OSU from scoring, you’re going to be disappointed. Michigan recruits these kids and they generally perform at an all conference level. I’m sorry if that’s not good enough, but it’s no better than anyone else is doing either. So I’m not really sure what you’re looking for.
Don Brown does not have an "elite offense" problem. Don Brown has a Day/OSU problem. I don't know if Day is a genius, if he's just had elite QBs (Haskins & Fields), if he has too much familiarity with him from working together at BC, OSU just prepares every day for UM so they have their best offensive output of the year against them, or some combination thereof. But, the majority of the DB gripe is OSU '18 & '19. We gave him a mulligan in '18 and assumed he fix the problem like he did with PSU, but two in a row in no bueno. If he doesn't come up with a better answer next time, whenever that may be, it may be time to try something different. The fan base will not and should not accept a shellacking from OSU every year, even if it's generally effective against everyone else.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
I have three thoughts on the approach summarized here that aren't intended to "justify" but rather "explain" what we're seeing:
- Michigan is trying to find "market inefficiencies" sort of like Moneyball. They know that the 5-stars require a ton of work, possible shady tactics, and ultimately have a low rate of return (not to mention they often decide later in the cycle). So Michigan has identified an area of the country that is under-scouted, has some talent, is willing to consider Michigan, and who has a better chance of out-performing their ranking.
(I think Seth's data suggests they are on to something....but much like Moneyball it has a ceiling and still doesn't match overall talent.)
- I think the DB class listed above was a wild over-reaction to what they were seeing on the field and swung too far in one direction. They liked having Clark and Stribling on the outside and went after a bunch of tall guys.
(The issue is that successful tall CBs are already a rare breed so taking so many of them at once with middling rankings put too many eggs in that basket when they've had success with so many normal sized cover guys.)
- Brown is trying to build a diverse defense that can match-up against a variety of offenses with more hybrids and positional flexibility. That's his solution to having to play Wisconsin one week, OSU the next, PSU after that, etc. So you see a lot of giant athletes on the DL.
(We'll see how this works out.....)
April 21st, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
The bottom line is that once Brady Hoke's DL recruits graduated the defense fell off a cliff against the better teams on the schedule. This isn't complicated, they need to sign higher ranked recruits on that side of the ball. The only way you're going to match OSU's 5 stars is with your own. No scheme in the world is going to cover up for the type of talent gap that is playing out in the recruiting rankings right now.
So where is this list of five star defensive players lining up to play at a school that hasn’t won a conference title in their lifetime, has never won a division title, and has zero playoff appearances?
Everyone gets that there’s a talent gap. Everyone gets that OSU recruits at an elite level. Everyone gets that also recruiting at an elite level would make Michigan compete better with OSU. But that’s also not how the real world works.
Michigan isn’t an attractive option to elite recruits. We can’t sell the results on the field that those schools can. We can’t sell the NFL production that those schools can. And we aren’t willing to play loose with the rules to get us there. So we’ll get a guy here and there. We’ll recruit very well. But you have to stop with this notion that we should be recruiting at an OSU level right now. We aren’t on the same level. It’s not realistic.
It’s not that we don’t WANT to get a dozen top 100 recruits every year. It’s that those recruits would rather go to a school that can guarantee a couple conference titles, CFP appearances, and that those kids will be drafted in the first or second rounds. And Michigan can’t compete with that right now.
No, it's that we don't have assistant coaches on defense that are capable of recruiting at the weight class required at the school they coach at. Recruiting is about relationships and effort. That's why Mack Brown has the #2 class in the country right now at a school that hasn't had football success in decades. It's why Nick Saban can show up at Alabama and after 10 years of suck immediately sign top 5 class after top 5 class. Bob Stoops did the same at OU. Pete Carroll at USC. And on down the line. There aren't elite programs anymore only elite coaches. And if anyone should know that it's Michigan fans. Bo Schembechler took over when UM was in the midst of its longest conference title drought ever and then won 13 big ten titles in 20 years. It's why teams like Texas, USC, Nebraska, FSU, etc all fall off when you hire the wrong coach and how a school like Clemson can rise up when you hire the right one.
Jim Harbaugh is getting paid a lot of money to make UM football elite not lose 3-4 games a year. The offensive staff isn't having problems signing highly rated guys but the defense is and it's because of what I outlined above. But that's what happen when you keep insisting on hiring guy with no recruiting chops like Pep Hamilton, Bob Shoop, Jim McElwain (how do you lose at Florida lol), Tim Drevno, Mike Zordich, Shaun Nua etc.
UM has a ton to sell. More than 99.9% of programs that exist. They are rich in both tradition and resources. There really isn't any excuse to keep recruiting like Boston College on defense. That's not a high bar and we don't even have coaches who can clear it.
So where is this list of five star defensive players lining up to play at a school that hasn’t won a conference title in their lifetime, has never won a division title, and has zero playoff appearances?
I can guess your answer (bagmen), but the likes of Saban, Meyer, Fisher, Smart, & now Day all were able to land top classes prior to ever winning. Saban signed top classes at both LSU and Bama before they were great. Meyer did the same at Florida & OSU. Fisher did the same at FSU & now A&M, Smart did the same at UGA, and Day did the same last year at OSU. Coaches/programs can sign top kids prior to winning if they emphasize it.
A lot of Hoke's best players on the DL were low 4 stars, 3 stars or worse: Hurst and Winovich were in the 250-400 range, Willie Henry was barely top 1000 and Glasgow was a walk-on.
In fact, Hoke didn't sign a single top 100 DL recruit.
I don't know if it was just luck that so many of them outperformed their rankings or what. But Harbaugh has had much higher ranked DL recruits.
What's killed Michigan is the 2017 class has to be up there with the 2013 OL class as biggest disappointments ever from a position group and similarly almost singularly killed multiple seasons for the entire team.
It's been decimated as guys transferred (Solomon and Irving-Bey) or got hurt (Malone-Hatcher, Vilain) or didn't pan out (Jeter, Paea). And not only do none of those players contribute anymore, Michigan didn't take many guys the following year because they seemed stacked. So those two classes last year and on the 2020 team.
If guys like Mazi Smith and Hinton pan out and a sleeper or two emerges from Welschof, Upshaw, Obajo, Mike Morris, Newberg which is likely and the 2020 class performs to expectations, they should be fine by 2021 and beyond.
This year could be another adventure though, especially if Smith and/or Hinton aren't ready.
Yeah that 2017 DL class has been a killer. Taking 8 guys that year meant the next year it was hard to get anyone to commit, 2018 had 3 DL players and one was from Germany. Same thing with the WRs from 2017. You take 5 high ranked guys and you end up with just Ronnie Bell in 2018. There has to be more stability with the numbers year to year otherwise you end up with a bunch of transfers and alternating huge and small classes at a certain position group.
The DL is missing a stud the last 2 classes but what I do like is taking 4-5 guys every year. Warinner corrected Drevnos mistake, after Drevo took 2 guys he’s taking 5/class. You need bodies and a bunch of lottery tickets on the lines. And the strategy seems to be bulk up athletic guys. Similar to how a few years ago people realized the best OTs were skinny tall guys in HS that you could bulk up. I’m willing to see how this strategy pans out on DL. I still want a big fish, but the last 3 years those guys have said no. Looking for Nua to get a recruiting win against a top 10 school here soon.
In fact, Hoke didn't sign a single top 100 DL recruit.
Pipkins was #56 overall. Wormley (#127), Charlton (#131), & Mone (#118) were just outside the top 100.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Sure, feed the Energy Creature.
Only a fool fights in a burning house.
April 21st, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
Maybe it’s worth being grateful that Michigan somehow has been able to get decent and occasionally very good recruiting classes over the past 20 years, even though the current trajectory might appear to look like more 9-4 and 8-5 seasons than 11-2 and 10-3 seasons. Despite Michigan's having experienced three ten-win seasons in the past five years, most elite high school football players today might not have been alive when Michigan last was considered an elite college football power, one that usually is expected to be in consideration for the college football playoffs right up to the end of the season.
One outright Big Ten divisional championship (2003), two wins against Ohio State and a 3-11 record in bowl games since 2003, plus usually finishing no better than third in the Big Ten East isn’t going to get Michigan many of today’s elite high school players. Moreover, having to compete in the same Big Ten division as two schools (Ohio State and Penn State) from talent-rich states plus an in-state rival (Michigan State) with less stringent academic standards puts Michigan at a distinct disadvantage in Big Ten football recruiting.
That’s the biggest thing. Most of us on here are clinging to the 1980’s and 1990’s and think we’re elite. Recruits for the 2021 class were born in 2003. Our last conference title was in 2004 (a shared title). Our record since 2003 is 139-77. We’ve won 64% of our games. Meaning we’re basically an 8-5 program on average in their lifetime. We have a total of 6 seasons in that span with 10+ wins. 2 by Carr, which they would have no memory of. 1 by Hoke, and 3 by Harbaugh.
The fact of the matter is, whether we like it or not, Michigan is not an elite program. We have an argument as being in that next tier, but we are not elite. And we ultimately aren’t an attractive option for elite recruits. We’ll pull a couple here and there, but we don’t have the pull that programs like OSU, Bama, Clemson, LSU, or Georgia have.
All true.
Still, it does seems that Harbaugh could prioritize demonstrated recruiting ability in his hiring/retention decisions for his staff a lot more.
Seems like too often he is too willing to let his better recruiters go and hire assistants that are just o.k. at recruiting.
Not sure his approach makes sense, given the things you highlight. Seems like those things make it even more important that almost every assistant should be a really strong recruiter, not just some of them.
most elite high school football players today might not have been alive when Michigan last was considered an elite college football power, one that usually is expected to be in consideration for the college football playoffs right up to the end of the season.
I don't buy that. Did HS kids remember the glory days of Bama before Saban got there or at LSU prior? That didn't stop him from signing top classes in his first year prior to winning. The same goes for Meyer, Day, Fisher, Smart, etc. You don't need recent success to sign top 10 classes, not at a blue blood or near blue blood. I don't know why people like to keep saying this over and over. Are you telling me if JH's assistants were Gattis, Warriner, Moore, Wheatley, & Hartline on offense and LJ, Washington, Partridge, & Scott on defense that UM couldn't sign a top class?
April 21st, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Don Brown isn't at Boston College anymore he's at Michigan, so why is he still recruiting like he's at Boston College and why would you write all these words attempting to defend it. And the problem is not just with Don Brown it's the entire defensive staff that seemingly can't recruit at the weight class the school they coach at requires. The only people who attempt to justify this type of recruiting are fans of teams who can't make the CFP.
That's to say nothing of the number of factual errors in your post. Cam McGrone was a 5 star on 247's internal rankings and an Army All American. Devin Bush was a UA All American and an ESPN300 recruit. Throwing those two guys in the same basket as Casey Phinney and Charles Thomas is bizarre. Moreover calling guys like Josh Metellus, Carlo Kemp, Mike Dwumfour, and Devin Gil "hits" is being generous at best. What were the alternatives at DT this year? Devin Gil couldn't even get on the field this year (stuck behind two top 247 recruits funny how that works). Josh Metellus is still looking for his underpants against OSU's WR's and he'll likely be an undrafted FA. At least you concede that the 2018 class was an unmitigated disaster.
Bottom line is outside of Josh Uche the success rate with these 3 stars has been abysmal. While you're hyping up Kwity Paye (also a UA All American btw) OSU is busy churning out guys like Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Chase Young, Zach Harrison, and they have a commit from top 5 overall Jack Sawyer. Give me 5 star recruits Brandon Graham, LaMarr Woodley, and Rashan Gary please and less Gabe Newberg's and Phil Paea's.
Stars matter, the sooner we all embrace that and the sooner the coaching staff does the better. We have 15 years of evidence that not recruiting as well as OSU means we lose to them every November. And we also have plenty of anecdotes that UM has problems within their recruiting department, so pretending they are choosing some of these 3 stars over 4 and 5 stars is disingenuous. It's probably a combo of being lazy and taking the proverbial low hanging fruit and not having the assistants capable of going toe to toe for top recruits against top teams. But for the love of god let's stop trying to manipulate the data and paint a narrative to say anything other than Jim Harbaugh and his 8 million dollar salary need to be doing better.
Speaking of factual errors, his name is Jack Sawyer, not Zach.
I agree with this 100%. Everything starts with the head coach, including recruiting. For this reason I started to fall off JH bandwagon a couple years ago.
I like it that we are winning some games against rivals like MSU, but I want to win them all. At this point I’m not sure Harbaugh can get us there. He’s had plenty of years to do it, and we are far, far away from beating OSU. We are going to get clobbered again this year.
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