Everyone needs a “Wooga” on the roster [Philadelphia Tribune]

Hoops Recruiting Is Talking About Playmakers Comment Count

Matt EM July 31st, 2020 at 11:24 AM

Michigan has two wings in the fold with 4-stars Kobe Bufkin and Isaiah Barnes. While Bufkin can certainly handle some on-ball duties offensively, he’s more 2/3 as opposed to a true combo-guard. Barnes is a pure wing that may create offense in spots depending on the matchup, but is further removed from being a lead guard than Bufkin. 

The Wolverines need an additional playmaker or two in this class. Let’s examine the current offers and targets and I’ll lay out a few prospects that I’d like to see the staff pursue.

Tier 1

Jalen Warley

4-star guard Jalen Warley has Michigan in a final 10 along with Virginia, Florida State, Oregon, Maryland, Miami, Louisville, LSU, Memphis and Ohio State. 

Rivals’ Corey Evans placed a Future Cast in favor of the Wolverines on Tuesday despite naming Virginia the number one contender just four days earlier. Yesterday, Evans seemed to imply the Cavaliers are the favorite yet again. 

As someone that speaks with Warley, we’re not at a point of naming a clear frontrunner. Michigan is in a functional top 5 along with Virginia, Oregon, Florida State perhaps Miami. The Wolverines are in a good spot because of family ties with assistant coach Phil Martelli. 

Scouting: I love his size, as he’s much closer to 6’6 than reported heights of 6’4 – 6’5. That said, I’m considerably lower on Warley in relation to the mainstreams. I’d probably have him in the 45 – 65 range as opposed to a top 25 type. Athletically, he doesn’t move all that well and doesn’t possess any quick twitch ability. In terms of skill, he’s much closer to Wing than Guard.

In half-court settings he attacks close-outs, hits catch and shoot jumpers, bullies smaller defenders in the paint and mixes that in with occasional straight line drives in isolation and ballscreen action. You just don’t see very many pull-ups or dumpoffs after collapsing the defense with dribble penetration. Those are two primary attributes you want to see from a lead-guard type in contemporary basketball.

That’s not to say I wouldn’t want him at Michigan. A 6’6 wing that can be a secondary creator while hitting jumpers at an acceptable clip is a great thing to have. But I am saying that I don’t view him as a primary on-ball playmaker at the next level. I’ve been trending toward this for quite some time, but I’m moving Jalen Warley to Wing for evaluation purposes. 

[After THE JUMP: the remaining offers/targets and my preferred expansion]

Jaden Akins

Michigan made the Final 6 for 4-star guard Jaden Akins last week in a list that also included Michigan State, DePaul, Florida, Northwestern and Mississippi State.  

Of those six, Michigan, MSU and DePaul are the three most likely landing spots as of right now. The Spartans are most definitely strong here, but do not discount the allure of early playing time in Ann Arbor and DePaul is attempting to make a big push late. I hinted at this last week, but I’d expect Jaden to come to a decision sooner rather than later. 

Scouting: Explosive, quick-twitch athlete that is electric in the open-court with good positional size at 6’3. Good pull-up game from both distance and midrange in isolation and high ballscreen action. Undervalued playmaker with good vision that creates easy looks for teammates. Solid handle, changes speeds well with the ball, first step acceleration and open-court speed allow him to get where he wants with a live dribble. Good verticality and body control as a finisher with both hands, but struggles to absorb contact with slender frame at this stage of development.

Combination of size/length and athleticism allows him to be disruptive defender. Projects as high-upside lead guard that may need a year of strength/conditioning to add muscle mass before he’s ready for prime time. Once he gets to 185ish, he’s going to be an impact player that knocks down shots off the bounce and makes teammates better.

Jaden Hardy

Top 10 guard Jaden Hardy has the Wolverines in a top 12 with Kentucky, Arizona, Georgia, Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Georgetown, Memphis, Kansas and Illinois. 

Hardy represents the most likely prospect to provide instant production, but the chances of him making his way to Ann Arbor are slim despite Detroit being his hometown.

Scouting: Outstanding positional size and length with college ready frame. Excellent pull-up jumper from distance. A scorer first and foremost, but has solid playmaking ability for others that isn’t talked about enough. Versatile enough to play off the ball because of his shooting prowess. Bullies guards to the rim based on superior size/strength. Solid athlete, but won’t wow you with acceleration or overall athleticism.

Projects to be instant-impact guard that is likely to be one of the top scorers in his respective conference as a freshman. Good enough facilitator that you can run offense through him. His physical profile and movements remind me a bit of Jrue Holiday. His playstyle brings back memories of former Colorado star Spencer Dinwiddie as a big guard with perimeter shotmaking ability that makes others better, but scoring is his preference.

Tier 2

Carter Whitt

Michigan extended an offer to 4star Carter Whitt this week. Whitt has played things close to the vest with his recruitment, so there is not general consensus on the major players here.

Scouting: Carter is another big guard at around 6’3 – 6’4 and a solid frame. I’m not buying reported weights of 160 – 170, as he looks to be in the 180 – 185 range. He’s a very good playmaker with vision that creates easy looks for others. He has a plus handle, with the ability to change direction/speed with a live dribble. Whitt is an average-ish shooter that doesn’t project to hit pull-up 3s at a high clip in college. Physically, he’s a solid athlete. He isn’t the most agile prospect around, but he does have good body control, absorbs contact and has adequate lift as a finisher in tandem with his strength in core balance.

In sum, A pass-first PG that operates as a ballscreen creator on high volume while being a respectable shooter. The best comparison I can think of is a high school version of Ricky Rubio. While Rubio types certainly aren’t valued as much as they were 10 – 15 years ago, a 6’4 PG with great playmaking ability is a very good option at the college level.

Next Up

Frankie Collins

Top 75 guard Frankie Collins included the Wolverines in his final 8 a few weeks back despite the absence of a reported offer. Michigan seems to have entered the mix back in May, with a Zoom Call scheduled for today. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Collins land an offer this evening. 

Scouting: Let’s get it out of the way, Collins isn’t 6’1. He’s probably closer to 5’10 but doesn’t necessarily play like it. Frankie has good lift as a finisher off 1 or 2 legs and converts over defenders with a decided height/length advantage. He has the best handle of this group and is shifty with a live dribble. As a playmaker he’s a solid shot creator that draws secondary defenders and hits bigs with dumpoffs and shooters with kickouts.

His jumpshot is definitely below average and he’s not going to be a player that attempts triples at a high rate at the next level. Defensively, there are always going to be concerns about a 5’10 player in terms of bigger guards bullying him to the rim or simply shooting over him. Collins has some Xavier Simpson qualities, but more athletic/explosive while being less potent as a playmaker.

Offer Now Please

Nisine Poplar

Nisine “Wooga” Poplar is a Philadelphia native with NBA size and athleticism ... paging Phil Martelli.

Scouting: It is absolutely mindboggling that Poplar is unranked to 247 and #105 to Rivals. He is all of a legit 6’4 with some serious explosion as a leaper and just a strong athlete overall. Nisine has very good vision off the bounce and routinely makes impressive passes that lead to easy baskets. His shooting mechanics aren’t great, but he knocks jumpers down at a respectable clip. He appears to have great length and projects to be a high level defender.

Poplar is already a 4-star in my tiered rankings, and I’d probably have him as a 40 – 60 type overall. Frankly, I’d prefer him to every realistic prospect mentioned in this piece exclusive of Jaden Akins. The ceiling here is extremely high and with Martelli’s Philly connections one would assume we’d have a very realistic chance.

Darius Johnson

My first live viewing of 3-star guard Darius Johnson came three weeks ago at the Showtime Roundup (my film from this event above) and boy was I impressed. Much like Poplar, I’m befuddled as to how Johnson is ranked the 37th best point guard to both Rivals and 247.

Scouting: Suiting up for Team Parsons (Adidas Sponsored) in a high-level matchup versus a Team Breakdown (Under Armour sponsored) squad featuring 2023 five stars Matt and Ryan Bewley, EM 4-star Wesley Cardet and several other high-major prospects, Darius may have been the best player on the court. Within 10 minutes of watching him, I thought to myself “This is what I wish Xavier Simpson was”. Johnson is 5’11 at best, but man is he shifty off the bounce with excellent playmaking ability, a great first-step, good lift as a leaper and the ability to hit jumpers from NBA range off the bounce or the catch.

He is the total package offensively with a college ready frame. He just so happens to be 2-3 inches shorter in relation to what NBA GMs prefer, making him an ideal candidate to be a heavy impact guard at the college level for at least 2-3 years. Oh, and he attends Episcopal HS in the DMV area despite playing for Florida-based Team Parsons. You may have heard that Juwan Howard and Phil Martelli run the DMV. Another no-brainer offer. 

Comments

TheGoatin99

July 31st, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^

Matt, is the staff still pursuing Akins heavily or have they accepted the fact that it seems MSU is the inevitable choice? Also, has Michigan been in talks with Poplar at all yet? Appreciate your insight!

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^

It's possible, but that was the case with Hunter Dickinson, Terrance Williams and Kobe Bufkin as well. Michigan's recruiting approach is different these days, we're no longer going to be hesitant of a heated recruitment based on timing and/or competition. 

You miss every shot you don't take. 

AC1997

July 31st, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^

Great piece Matt.  Thanks for the update.  I had a few things to respond with:

  1. What you WISH Simpson was?  Strong statement....not quite sure I understand.  But if you mean something to the effect of "Simpson with a better shot" then I'm in!  
     
  2. I agree that the ideal PG recruit is someone that will arrive on campus ready to contribute right away but is a ~3-year player who will be a star in those last couple of years.  It seems like Akins is the ideal fit there.  I wish I felt better about our chances.
     
  3. You mentioned Whitt in the context of Rubio.  From Michigan's history, how does he compare to Darius Morris?  Similar size, pass-first, athletic but not elite, shaky shot?  
     
  4. Over at UMHoops there have been some rumors that Michigan is in contact with another kid named Ty-Ty Washington.  Any thoughts on him?
     
  5. Warley mentioned in an interview that he might be interested in the G-League.  I agree that he's not quite the player that his ranking or the term "point guard" implies. Do you think he's G-League quality?

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^

1) Johnson has MUCH better perimeter shotmaking ability and his explosiveness allows him to finish at the rim over much bigger defenders

2) Akins would be my #1 choice at the lead guard spot of our available, realistic option. NBA level size/athleticism but needs to add 15-20 lbs of muscle mass so probably around 2-3 years

3) That's a reasonable comp

4) Haven't viewed Washington live, appears to be a solid prospect based on film

5) I don't think there's any way that Warley is G League material. To be candid, he's probably a 2-3 year guy at minimum. One of the initial questions that college coaches ask me is "How well does he move" - the answer here is average at best. Warley is an average athlete that lacks any quick twitch acceleration, doesn't knock down 3s at very high percentage and doesn't have a ton of wiggle as an on-ball creator. Additionally, he doesn't project as someone that can handle full-court ball pressure as a ballhandler and isn't likely to be adequate as an on-ball defender against quicker guards at the B10 level, let alone the professional ranks. All of that screams Wing, particularly at 6'5 - 6'6. He has nice size and will likely improve as a shooter. 

KTisClutch

July 31st, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^

I don't see much pull up ability from Wooga in that highlight, but you ding Warley for lacking that. Do you think Wooga shows more of that in other videos? Based on his form I wouldn't expect him to be much of a pull up threat.

 

Another Q, don't you think a Warley-Bufkin combo would be good together? That's good length, and both can provide ball handling or be off the ball.

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^

I didn't ding Warley, simply said his skillset and physical abilities are that of a wing, and one I'd like to have.

Poplar is just better equipped to be a lead guard in my professional opinion. He moves much better, with better agility and first-step acceleration, is a considerably better playmaker/passer and has better change of direction/speed off the bounce. He's very new to basketball and is already a better prospect than Warley with a much higher ceiling. 

Take a look at this film:
https://twitter.com/Ben_Pfeifer_/status/1285628063246700544

 

Warley is a good prospect in a talent-deprived class, but regardless of what the mainstreams think, Poplar is definitely a tier above Warely, and perhaps 2 tiers if projecting long term. 

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^

I appreciate that you don't agree with me very often, and aren't hesitant to question my takes. It makes for productive discussion of prospects on our board and where those offers/targets stand in relation to the national scene.

And yeah, what good would I be if I had blanket agreement with mainstreams? I trust my eyes. I attend live events at a higher rate than most mainstreams and I stand by that. For that reason, I'm not afraid to disclose my track record. Sure, I miss like every evaluator, but my hit rate is reasonably high. And not because I'm some genius, its because I put in the work of attending live events basically every weekend possible. Take a look at my wish list from a few months back and examine those offer lists/rankings prior to my article in relation to where they are now.........

 

AC1997

July 31st, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^

Interesting question about Warley/Bufkin.  I was going to ask a different question of how Warley compares to Bufkin after reading both this post and the comments.  Seems like they are similar sizes, not true PGs, etc.  If anything, I've been more impressed with some recent highlights of Bufkin's athleticism and explosiveness.  Wondering if Warley is too similar...not that we don't want as many talented wings as possible.

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^

Bufkin is a better prospect than Warley in nearly every facet of the game. He's a better on-ball shot creator, a better pull-up shotmaker and a better floor-spacing catch and shoot type. He's also a better athlete, although there isn't a huge distinction. Warley is probably 25 pounds heavier and perhaps an inch taller. 

Bufkin is more guard than Warley and a better overall prospect, particularly long term. 

Matt EM

July 31st, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^

The fundamental question is what level can you dribble, pass, shoot? Can Warley handle the ball well enough to create space consistently? Can he knock down pull-ups at a respectable clip? Can he consistently create looks for others? 

I have questions about all those facets with regard to Warley, and that's why he's a wing for my evaluation purposes and Bufkin is more guard. 

outsidethebox

August 2nd, 2020 at 8:59 PM ^

I see these kids so nearly identical to you. A couple weeks ago, after watching a Warley clip, I declared that Warley is not a PG in any way shape or form...and the listing of him as a combo guard is just plain silly hype. (Not well received here-I don't have your standing nor tact-but I couldn't care less about that either-I call them as I see them.) I like his ability to score the ball but he is a dark, dead end hole once the ball falls into his hands. There is a role for such a player but it is quite narrow. 

Akins, OTOH, in my view is head and shoulders the best guard of any of the many clips that get run by the viewing public-of players in play for Michigan. The kid is a player-the consummate team player...he just loves to win...and it matters not if he is the star. Howard has got to offer this kid everything he can...am sure he is. 

Blue Vet

July 31st, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

All those coaches, recruiters, bag men, writers, bloggers, etc. that recruits have to deal with.

I now realize how lucky I was to fly under the radar as a basketball player, so I didn't have to deal with any of that.

WAY under the radar, despite averaging a point a minute my senior year. (I.e., I played 4 minutes that season and scored 4 points.)

NotADuck

July 31st, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^

Oh my god don't hurt 'em Carter Whitt!  That behind the back pass in the air under the hoop at the 2:27 mark in the video was beautiful!  I still like my "Spike Albrecht but taller" comparison in the thread about his offer.  I was also thinking he's a taller Xavier Simpson but I hope he's a better shooter than Xavier was.  As good of a playmaker X was his shooting put a hard cap on the team's ceiling.

The Deer Hunter

July 31st, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^

Akins all day long. Tier 1A should be Jaden, the rest is Tier 1B. 

Of course, just my opinion and  does not take into account what prospect we can build around for 4 years.