[Dereck Lively/The Top Of My Board]

Hoops Recruiting Shuffles The Bigs Board Comment Count

Matt EM May 24th, 2021 at 8:12 AM

With Hunter Dickinson likely gone after next season and Moussa Diabatte having one-and-done potential, Michigan is absolutely taking a true center in the 2022 class. The Wolverines are firmly in the mix for several elite bigs and continue to keep tabs on a few prospects should the Plan As not work out.

Hampton, Virginia was my destination over the weekend at the Southern Jamfest. It was another opportunity to evaluate a few of those Plan As and gather intel on where Michigan stands.

Lively Ascending To The Top

Dereck Lively was the best player on the court in a game full of premier talent with Team Final (5* Jalen Duren, 5* Emoni Bates, 4*Justice Williams and more) taking on Team Loaded (4* Tyler Nickel, 4* Jayden Epps, 4* Alphonzo Billups and more) in the semifinals of the Southern Jamfest on Sunday.

The 7-footer had the full arsenal on display in a performance that had the gym buzzing. Elite finishing as a vertical lob threat, rim protection, agility, vision and perimeter shotmaking ability beyond the arch. He finished with 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists in 15 minutes of game action as Team Final blew-out Team Loaded in large part due to Lively's dominance. 

While I already bumped Dereck to 5-star status in my database a few weeks back after his outing in Scranton, the real question now is whether he's a top-10 overall prospect or merely in the top 15-20 range.

In my detailed report on Lively earlier this month from the KYDA Invitational, I suggested he had some potential as a shooter based on his mechanics and comfort taking shots beyond the arch. He cashed in on that promise this weekend by knocking down a corner three with so much confidence that he started making his way down the court before the ball could go through the net at the :20 second mark in the clip above

That same evaluation from Scranton talked-up his passing ability and that played out again in Hampton. The pass Lively makes at roughly the :31 second mark above isn't something you see often from a 7-footer. Justice Williams leads him a bit too much with the hit-ahead and Dereck has to walk a tight-rope just to stay in-bounds before jumping in the air and dropping a precision dime across his body to Justice Williams in stride for an easy layup. That level of spatial awareness, body control and passing execution bodes very well for his projection as a passer in college.  

Lively already had the look of an All-American level defender that provides high-level finishing via lobs and dumpoffs. If he's just an adequate shooter in tandem with his passing ability, the potential here is off-the-charts. Mainstreams ranking him in the 40s is far too low. At worst, this is a top-20 prospect that will flirt with top-10 overall for me. His development this Spring has been so impressive that I'm actually pondering whether Dereck's long term ceiling is higher than Jalen Duren. In any event, Lively has clearly surpassed Donovan Clingan on my personal board for 2022 bigs.

In speaking with Dereck and his family in the last month, I have discovered something significant. Lively's mother is the Director of Marketing with the Athletics Department at Penn State. And while that is obviously going to keep PSU in the thick of things, I don't think its a foregone conclusion that he ends up in State College given the circumstances. PSU has a new head coach in Micah Shrewsberry who may be working from behind and the Nittany Lions don't necessarily have the best track record in terms of program success or getting bigs to the NBA. Dereck is working on setting up visits and I do expect Michigan to lock-in an official at this point. 

[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on Duren, Clingan and Washington]

The Man-Child

5-star Jalen Duren needs no introduction and we won't spend a lot of time exploring his on-court game. He's the most physically imposing HS prospect in the country that also happens to be a gifted passer. Those attributes were on full display in Hampton, as his combination of size/agility/verticality/strength manifested on defense in ways that few others can match. His inherent physical gifts make it to where Duren can just float through a game and use his discretion as to when he would like to assert himself for total domination. 

Nothing new on the recruiting front. Jalen Duren is not coming to Ann Arbor. The professional route is probably the safest bet, with Miami being the the most likely option if he decides to attend college for a year, with a reclass to 2021 a possibility. 

Two-Horse Race

4-star center Donovan Clingan was in action over the weekend at the Circuit League in Texas. The 7-footer impressed with his vision and finishing ability against high-level competition. The lefty from Connecticut definitely has some similarities to a certain big man on the current roster.

Once thought to be a lock for UConn based on geography and family preference, Juwan Howard has Michigan surging and the Wolverines may be on even ground in relation to the Huskies. In the interview above, Donovan says he hasn't locked-in any visits just yet, but you can assume Michigan will definitely get an OV at some point in the near future along with UConn and Syracuse.

The official visits will go a long way in determining where Clingan spends his college days. The on-court fit in Ann Arbor is custom-made for Donovan's skillset, and that message is resonating with the Clingan camp in recent weeks. This is a true 50/50 battle with the allure of being a potential home-town hero versus the sure-thing in Ann Arbor.

Still In Tier 2

5-star big Jalen Washington was offered by North Carolina earlier this month and has locked in an official visit to Chapel Hill in early June and will also make his way to Stanford a few weeks later. Michigan is still in contact with Jalen, but has yet to extend an offer. He's an elite perimeter shotmaker at the center position, but hasn't displayed the level of consistent athleticism/physicality/paint production that Juwan Howard covets to warrant a serious pursuit. Washington is an outstanding student with a great academic resume, so if the Wolverines get serious here I would expect Michigan to get a visit and be a serious contender given the ties to Chris Hunter (Washington attends Hunter's former HS). 

Comments

WoodleyIsBeast

May 24th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^

It just feels so great to be in on the big fish now that Juwan is in town and has established himself...Another amazing year from Dickinson will continue to drive the narrative that being a big man in Ann Arbor is the place to be.

njvictor

May 24th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^

Lively seems like a combo of Willie Cauley Stein and Jaren Jackson in the best way possible

Also, Matt I have 2 questions:

  1. How did Emoni Bates look with Team Final? Better? Worse? Same?
  2. How does UNC offering Seth Trimble impact his recruitment?

Matt EM

May 24th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^

I took in one live game of Bates and he looked like typical Emoni to me, but with improved defensive effort. Still takes contested pull-ups in volume, struggles to defend on the perimeter due to a lack of agility, but makes highlight-reel shots occasionally. 

I have no direct intel on Trimble, but I'll check around and see where things stand. 

LabattsBleu

May 24th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^

Thanks Matt -

you had also mentioned Reed and Flipowski as guys Michigan is interested in in your previous big man post... gotta assume Michigan is slow playing Reed a little, while they continue to measure where they stand with Clingan and Lively

Is an offer forthcoming for Flip, or is it a foregone conclusion he is Duke bound?

FightThePower2021

May 24th, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^

Camp Sanderson, here comes Lively!

Can only imagine how good he will be with some muscle/strength!

True Blue Grit

May 24th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^

It sounds like Lively would be the #1 priority at this point for the 5 recruiting.  But I imagine the competition will really start heating up for his services, especially when the sleaze factories get more involved.  Hopefully, Michigan can get one of the two top guys - Lively or Clingan.  

orangeda

May 24th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^

I know Matt's preference is based on game and potential, and it's understandable that Lively has moved ahead of Clingan if that's your consideration.

I think I'd still prefer Clingan because he's almost guaranteed to be a monster in Howard's system, and you're more likely to get more college production out of him, IMO, because quite frankly, he'll be around longer.

If Lively keeps progressing at his current rate, he's a one and done, he's your prototypical NBA big, Clingan is at least a 2 or 3 yr guy in college, and that's better for Michigan.

Would obviously love to have either one, but if I think both will be about equally productive, and I have to choose, I want the guy who's going to be at UM longer.

Matt EM

May 24th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^

Hopefully, I didn't give the vibe that I'm down on Clingan. I would absolutely love to have him, particularly with Juwan Howard coaching him. I tend to agree that if longevity is the primary criteria, Clingan is probably the guy you want. Offensively, there's definitely an argument to be made that Clingan is superior, particularly if you want a guy that scores with his back-to-the-basket.

Defense is where the real gap exists. Lively is FAR superior on that end of the court. 

orangeda

May 24th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^

Wasn't meant to imply that I thought you were down on Clingan.  I was just saying that I get where you're coming from by moving Lively ahead of Clingan as a prospect on your board, but that I still prefer Clingan over Lively to UM if given the choice because I fee like both will be extremely productive college players and Clingan is almost certainly going to be in college longer than Lively will be.

It really is like choosing between a Jaren Jackson type vs a Hunter Dickinson type(that assumes Jackson would have been used properly in his one year of college).  Both were/are great college players, but I'd take two or three years of Hunter vs one year of Jackson any day of the week, even though Hunter clearly doesn't have the NBA upside of Jackson.

 

EastCoast Esq.

May 24th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^

Maybe this is obvious, but do you get the sense that Juwan is having much more success recruiting skilled big men vs. guards? We're still getting very good guards, but it seems like our board is in the high 4* range for guards vs. solidly 5* for big men.

It would be logical given Juwan's skillset and success in the NBA.

Also, I will happily take skilled big men if that's the case.

Matt EM

May 24th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^

The tables have turned in basketball in general, we're starting to see a lot of depth in terms of high-end bigs that are more-traditional, while there is a lack of depth at the guard position. I've watched Ohio State commit Bruce Thornton live 3 times this Spring, and he wouldn't be any higher than a top 50-60 prospect for me. Some mainstreams have him flirting with top-10 overall, which is insanity in my opinion. That speaks to the lack of depth at the guard position in HS. 

Phaedrus

May 25th, 2021 at 8:05 AM ^

That’s interesting since it is almost the exact opposite in the NBA. Pretty much every team has great guards but only the great teams have great bigs.

I guess it probably has to do with the fact that a modern NBA big has to be able to shoot and dribble away from the basket. Guys like Dickinson can be great in college but they have to develop a shot and ball skills to be useful in the NBA.

Matt EM

May 25th, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^

The NBA has seen a resurgence of bigs in relation to the ultra small-ball Warrior days. 

Off the top of my head Anthony Davis, Joker, Embiid, D'Andre Ayton, Rudy Gobert, Jonas Valuncianas, Nikola Vucevic, Domantis Sabonis, Bam Adebayo are all playing somewhere near All-Star level and aren't necessarily modern bigs in terms of being volume three point shooter AND switchable/agile on the perimeter. 

EastCoast Esq.

May 25th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^

As a big Joel fan (76ers fan), I would push back against the notion that Joel is a volume three point shooter. He's capable of hitting the 3, but only as a way of keeping defenses honest. If a defender closes hard, he'll always drive to the basket. I'd call him an incredibly gifted traditional big, rather than a stretch big.

Your comments about high school, college, and the NBA, though, are surprising and very much appreciated. I had no idea that a shift was occurring.

nerv

May 24th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^

Crazy that our tier 2 option that hasnt shown enough to get an offer is still a 5-star big. Sure have come a long way in a couple years in regards to basketball recruiting.

Also find it a bit ridiculous that an AAU team has the two best players in the country to go with a host of other top prospects. Can definitely see the current "Super Team" system in the NBA isn't likely to change anytime soon as the next crop of young talent are doing the exact same thing in HS.

AC1997

May 24th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^

Given that Michigan might enter 2022 without a single big (depending on your feelings on Tshetter) on the roster, do you see any chance they might go after both Clingan and Lively?  Probably can't play them together much, if at all, but there will be plenty of minutes to go around for both.  

Also, as you talk about Lively entering top-15 territory I'm curious where you think his game is at this point relative to Diabate.  Both are long, athletic, defense-ahead-of-offense guys that have high ceilings.  Diabate has been developing a lot the past two years and adding tools to his bag but still working on refinement. Given where Lively is at this stage, now coming out of Duren's shadow during EYBL.....how does he compare as a prospect?  

Matt EM

May 24th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

Moussa has better shot-creating ability off the bounce, he's capable of attacking a close-out or facing-up from the mid-post/elbow and making a play. Diabate is also a more willing shooter. Lively is bigger/longer and projects as an elite rim protector while Moussa is more agile and switchable on the perimeter. 

I don't mind playing two-bigs together in the mold of Clingan/Lively provided one or both can pass. And Clingan + Lively can both pass. 

SanDiegoWolverine

May 24th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^

Are we sure Hunter is leaving after next year? If he has a massive skill development year then maybe he sniffs the first round. If he just gets a lot better but doesn't show a great 3 point stroke or improved athleticism then he probably projects as a 2nd round pick. Players like him have to max out every ounce of their ability to start in the modern NBA. Jonas Valanciunas did it but more common are players like Enes Kanter that are massively talented but just cut in pick an roll coverage. 

So I think he likely has a touch decision after next year. Unless he dead set on leaving no matter his draft stock I think we see him back in the maize and blue in his 3rd year.

1989 UM GRAD

May 24th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^

What you're saying makes a lot of sense, but I'd frame the question just a bit differently...which might also change the answer to the question.  

Would Dickinson really markedly improve in a 3rd or 4th year in college?  Would the extra year(s) really improve his draft position?

My take is that If "he is what he is," you go pro sooner rather than later.  

nerv

May 24th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^

I think the 'he is what he is' so he might as well leave is more valid on someone who is already earning a 1st or near 1st round draft grade. That is not where Hunter has been. He sniffed the 2nd round in a couple mocks but mostly wasn't on them.

At this point who he is isn't someone the NBA is particularly interested in. He probably needs to show marked improvement with his off hand, range, & ball security to move up NBA radars as his athleticism isn't likely to improve much.

Now he is already old for his class and it is possible he simply wants to go start his pro career and sign a contract even if it isnt on an NBA roster. If that is the case not much you can do.

Darth Saedd

May 24th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^

Matt, I hope you enjoyed your time down here in the Tidewater region on VA!  Did you get a chance to check out any of the local beaches and attractions?

OldSchoolWolverine

May 24th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^

I saw Livelys video in the last writeup and viewed him as the player I wanted, over Clingan and even Duren.   I had a similar sentiment when viewing Dickinson's video vs Kessler's. Dickinson seemed to have better moves and skill.