THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

After Michigan's ACC/B1G Challenge matchup with NC State was canceled because of COVID issues in the Wolfpack program, the Wolverines quickly found a replacement in Toledo. While losing the lone top-100 non-conference game on the schedule is a blow to M's strength of schedule, the Rockets are a solid short-notice replacement, sitting just outside the top 100 on KenPom—they're the top-ranked team in the MAC. While they're only 3-2 with their best victory over #168 Eastern Michigan, they've blown out their lesser opponents—including mutual foe Oakland, who they beat 80-53—and lost by a combined five points to #116 Bradley and #59 Xavier.

Adding Toledo to the schedule should mitigate concerns about a hypothetical NCAA Tournament resumé, especially since NC State isn't quite a marquee opponent. There's going to be so little non-conference data, not to mention so many canceled games, that as long as Michigan takes care of business in the Big Ten, they should be fine for tournament purposes. It doesn't hurt that the Big Ten is kicking the ACC's ass in the Challenge. Yesterday's scores:

• Iowa 93, UNC 80
• Illinois 83, Duke 68 (at Cameron!)
• Penn State 75, Virginia Tech 55
• Rutgers 79, Syracuse 69
• Ohio State 90, Notre Dame 85
• Minnesota 85, Boston College 80
• Miami 58, Purdue 54

If not for the Boilermakers gacking up a huge second-half lead in Miami, the B1G would've had a clean 7-0 sweep yesterday. The Challenge is already decided; there are only four more games today because of further cancelations, including the MSU-Virginia headliner. That should boost the conference's profile come Selection Sunday.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Diagram FAQ. These now have Torvik's PRPG! all-in-one stat in the little boxes.

Starting center AJ Edu, a player Toledo was very excited about this season, had season-ending surgery on a torn meniscus suffered in the season's second game. He's an elite shot-blocker; there isn't another rim protector of his caliber on the roster.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Yes, Austin Davis is still the starting center, even though Hunter Dickinson is getting much more playing time.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Hold onto your butts. This is a bombs-away squad.

Head coach Tod Kowalczyk has a MAC championship and four West division titles in his ten years at Toledo, a particularly impressive feat given the program was 4-28 the season before he arrived. He coaches good offenses and generally sub-par defenses; there's a joke about his first name in there somewhere. His recent teams have featured high-level three-point shooting on a high number of attempts. The Rockets nearly upset Xavier on the road a couple weeks ago by shooting 10-for-19 from beyond the arc and they're hitting 41% of their threes so far this season.

Senior point guard Marreon Jackson is the leader of the team and a fairly good representation of the offense as a whole. He can knock down threes off the bounce or spotting up and does so with regularity; he's a career 38% shooter from distance on 606(!) attempts. Meanwhile, he's a career 45% shooter on 430 two-pointers. He gets a lot of pick-and-roll usage; his best options are pulling up from three or kicking it out off the drive, because he's not a good finisher. Here's his shot chart from last season:

Jackson is an efficient distributor who takes care of the ball and an excellent free throw shooter, so despite the troubles around the rim, he's a very positive offensive player. Toledo's offense took a 15 points per 100 possessions nosedive when he wasn't on the floor last year. On the other hand, their defense was significantly better (7 points per 100 possessions and 7 percentage points better defending two-pointers) when he was off the court, and his Synergy individual defense numbers were sub-20th percentile. Michigan should attack him off the dribble, especially if they catch him on a switch.

Senior wing Spencer Littleson is a solid defender and knockdown three-point shooter who's been above 40% from beyond the arc since he transferred following his freshman year at Duquesne. The Rochester Hills native fits the Just A Shooter™ profile on offense. He can gets a little handsy going for steals and his foul rate has historically been higher against good competition.

Shooting guard Ryan Rollins has been impressive in his freshman season, starting 11-for-28 from beyond the arc and showing enough off-the-dribble game to lead the team in free throw attempts. He's finished decently well around the rim; if he has to pull up from midrange, it's been rough. He's graded out as a plus defender so far, per Synergy.

Junior forward Setric Millner is a sit-out transfer from Cleveland State who's seen a major uptick in both competition and usage rate so far at Butler, an unusual combination that's showing in his numbers. A low-usage stretch four at CSU, Millner has focused on getting to the bucket more this season, which has produced more frequent (and efficient) finishing, trips to the line, and assists, but also an elevated turnover rate. Meanwhile, he's been picked on by opposing scorers, who are posting a 59.1 eFG% against him.

With Edu out, 6'9/215 junior Englishman Jonathan Komagum has stepped into the center spot. While he's not the same shot-blocking presence as Edu, he's posted elite rebounding numbers on both ends of the floor while picking up one block in each of his last four games. He does very, very little on offense other than crash the glass, going 3-for-8 from the field this season with a minuscule 9% usage rate.

The top reserve is sophomore wing Keshaun Sanders, who plays about half the team's minutes. He's another good outside shooter who has trouble finishing his twos. He also provides some needed secondary ballhandling to give Jackson a break; he was boasting a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio until post two assists and four turnovers against Eastern Michigan the last time out.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

It's all about the three ball for Toledo. They're shooting only 41% on twos, so taking 45% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc is lower than ideal, if anything. When they venture near the paint, they get a ton of their shots blocked, and their best offensive rebounder isn't a putback guy unless it's wide open. Even though they're one-dimensional, they're not easy to stop; they've done a great job taking care of the basketball.

While the defensive numbers have been solid so far, a lot of that has to do with an unsustainable stat: opponents have made 24% of their three-pointers. Meanwhile, they're giving up over 50% shooting on twos and now have some of the worst rim protection in the country without Edu. They've also been below-average on the glass. Dickinson should feast again.

THE KEYS

Feed the beast. I could copy and paste the last paragraph again if you want. None of Toledo's bigs are listed at taller than 6'10 or heavier than 225 pounds. Dickinson is gonna be a load for them to handle.

Guard the arc. Again, I feel like I could C&P from the last section. If the Rockets win this game it's going to be because they hit a barrage of threes. Plant Dickinson in the paint and run these guys off the line, because finishing at the rim is a problem for pretty much all of them. The perimeter players are going to need to be sharp off the ball and make sure they're not overhelping; you only need one guy contesting interior shots against these guys, most of whom are equally likely to make a three as a two.

Go to the rack. Even when not running the offense through Dickinson, Michigan should be using their size advantage and exploiting Toledo's poor rim protection. They're 270th in block rate and that includes Edu appearing in two of their five games. The Wolverines have a height advantage at every frontcourt position and will also be bigger at the two when they bring in Chaundee Brown for one of the starting guards. This could be another big game for the energy guys, Brandon Johns and Terrance Williams, against a team that's had issues protecting the defensive boards.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 12.

Just defend the arc, please.