THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#46 Michigan (8-5) vs #44 Penn State (11-3)	trips & shout! Ahhh ahhhh ahhh!
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -3 Torvik: M -1.5
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Refocused defense, Big Ten play, some tiny centers, some terrible opponent shooting, a players-only meeting…all of these must have contributed to the sudden turnaround last weekend. Now comes the first test of whether that was all real, as well as another huge test for how well Howard's short-on-guards defense can defend a bull of a point guard and a ton of perimeter shooting.

Penn State's 11-3 record is misleading since their nonconference schedule included just two teams that went to the Tournament last year, Virginia Tech and post-David Roddy Colorado State. They do have a couple of close losses to ACC teams, falling to the Hokies in Charleston, SC, by 2 points (on a night VT shot just 16% from the arc), and a 2OT loss at #58 Clemson. In-conference so far they blew out Illinois in Champaign, fell to Michigan State at home, and recently dispatched Iowa.

Brad Stevens disciple Micah Shrewsberry has turned Linebacker U into a respectable Big Ten team in two years with portal up-transfers who barrel into the lane like linebackers or hit 50% of their unguarded threes. Not coincidentally, Penn State this year has lived and died at the arc, canning 21/43 (49%) in their two victories and 30/93 (32%) in three losses vs non-scrubs. A quick look at their top five shooters' Synergy numbers shows that—you guessed it—there's a huge difference between guarded and unguarded attempts.

Guarding them is tougher that it may seem, since 2021 Siena transfer Jalen Pickett grew over the offseason into an unstoppable generator of offense. The big unanswered question about resurgent PSU this year isn't whether the soon-to-be All-American point guard is for real—he most certainly is—but whether their small frontcourt can play enough defense for it to matter.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes. After I posted last week we ruled Hunter has to get back inside the Kenpom Top 10 to get his crown back.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Maybe he can take it from Pickett, who's currently No. 7.

[Hit THE JUMP for Thicc and the Stauskases.]

THE THEM

PG Jalen Pickett, who transferred up last year from Siena, is the headliner. He's a 6'4" burly guard who creates a huge amount of Penn State's offense by bullying his way into the lane then distributing or shooting depending on whether the help came.

Pickett is also going to maul you on defense. He's not a great shooter, but he's a very willing one, IE he will pull up from anywhere. The difference this year is he's found ways to score at the rim, which means you can no longer just stay in front of him and wait for the low-efficiency stepback. If you help, he'll get the ball out to one of his shooters, who are lethal. No pressure, Kobe.

Their next most dangerous offensive threat is old friend PF Seth Lundy, a Not-Just-a-Shooter who has slashed his turnover rate in half and kicked his 3PT% up 5 points by simply by not having to shoulder the offensive load anymore. Lundy's a burlywing who operates as PSU's four but isn't much of a rebounder. Unlike the other wings Lundy can shove his way to the rim. His offensive efficiency has always been Caleb Houstan-level dependent on what's going on around him; he's 20/44 (46%) on threes against Group of Five competition this year and 7/23 (30%) in five P5 games.

Not-Just-a-Shooter #2 is Drexel up-transfer SG Camren Wynter, who is shooting 11 points over last year's 28% 3PT average, again on account of not having to be The Guy. Wynter was an efficient distributor at Drexel, where he was #2 (#175) in the CAA in usage. On this team he's a third banana who's able to guard 1s or 2s on defense. Despite the shot chart he's not exactly Sam Sessoms-level at making his way into the lane--most of his points at the rim this year have come vs the dregs.

Wynter starts but splits time with 6th man Myles Dread, the archetype of a PSU linebacker-shaped Just-a-Shooter. Dread raised his 3PT% from 34% on high volume his first three seasons in Happy Valley to 41% last year and 46% this season. Part of that's a repaired shoulder. He's always been streaky, and how he goes often goes his team; his 0/6 night against Clemson felt worse because any one of those could have decided the game, while a 5/9 game vs Illinois keyed the road blowout.

SF Andrew Funk is yet another up-transfer, and yet another guy shooting 10 points over his career average in a shooter's environment. Over four years at Bucknell he was a go-get-buckets winger. In the Big Ten he's Joey Baker without the sojourns inside.

As with Michigan's last opponent, center is the trouble spot. John Harrar moved on after last season, and 6'10" (might be more like 6'8") true freshman Kebba Njie has been barely hanging on against the Lilliputians of PSU's schedule. There are troubling signs of what might happen versus a major Big; PSU has played five guards when they can, but Clemson's forwards had their way with Njie, then really had their way with Njie's backup.

The Bench:

We already discussed Dread among the starters, and he represents most of the minutes PSU gets from their bench. The rest of the guys:

• W Evan Mahaffey is a 3-star true freshman who was ranked #186 to the composite. Thus far he's mostly been used to pick up fouls against bigs in lieu of guarding them. Expect him to enter and exit this game with Reed.
• F Michael Henn transferred from Denver via Portland via Cal Baptist via UC Davis. At each of these stops he's been more of a stretch four than a plausible center. 100% of his points at PSU are off of assists.
• G Dallion Johnson is a third-year deep bench guard. This year he profiles as a JAS who's just not hitting them.
• "Big" Caleb Dorsey is a 6'7" center who hasn't played a competitive minute since Clemson and MSU used him as a cash register.

THE TEMPO FREE

PSU is heavily reliant on Pickett's old-man-at-the-Y game (some might call this the "Seth") but it works for them, and nobody else is allowed to ball-handle. Defensively they'll put their chests into you, knock you down a few times to see if you're soft, and give up the ghost if you do manage to penetrate the perimeter defenses.

THE KEYS

Feed the Big Man. This will be a theme in 2023: PSU is small up front, so get Dickinson the ball, and get Hunter mad enough that he stuffs these guys in a locker.

Pushback on Pickett? He's still inefficient as a shooter and a lot of the stuff that's going in at the rim might not be sustainable. Easier said than done—Dug isn't going to keep him from backing into the lane if he gets switched—but once you start drawing help you're dead.

Wings, rotate! Can we even count Michigan as a Power 5 ball screen defense? If the focus is there? This is another one of those every open shooter is a dollar off your allowance nights for Jett.

Thruck be a lady. Penn State takes many open threes and gives up many open threes. Michigan's coming off a couple of 27% outings. PSU has shot 30% and 50% in their two road games thus far. The part of your brain that thinks what goes on in warmups is relevant is still unreasonable, but might be a tiny bit reasonable tonight.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.