THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

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The tea leaves remain difficult to read regarding Isaiah Livers's return from his groin injury:

Isaiah Livers approached his coach, Juwan Howard, recently and let out some steam. The junior forward has been classified as “day-to-day” for over a month now, watching helplessly as his team has sputtered to a 2-3 record in his absence.

“‘Coach, this is a tough time for me right now,’ ” Howard recalled Livers saying. ‘I’m going through it.’” 

Howard offered no assurances of Livers’ imminent return, only that “he’s improving”, which he deemed to be “a great sign, not a good sign, a great sign.”

He seems to be close; he went through full warmups before the Iowa game, a sign he's on the verge of being cleared to play. While we're leaving him off the graphic, there's a chance he suits up.

This would be a great time to get him back, not only due to the matchup with Lamar Stevens—this is the beginning of a critical stretch for Michigan's tournament outlook, as I detailed yesterday. Still, it's too soon for certain questions:

Say it with me: there's ? no ? such ? thing ? as ? a must ?win ?game? in ?january

Michigan was 2-4 in 2016-17 — ended up in the Sweet 16. It was 1-6 in 2010-11 — played in the 2nd Rd.

Meanwhile, it was 6-3 in 2014-15 and finished 16-16. Missed the NIT. https://t.co/pnxZnhGMCc

— Brendan Quinn (@BFQuinn) January 22, 2020

Let's keep our heads, please.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

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Penn State has made two recent changes to their starting lineup, replacing senior center Mike Watkins with more offensive-oriented junior John Harrar and benching cold-shooting guard Myles Dread with freshman Seth Lundy.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Like Michigan, Penn State enters this game in strong position for the NCAA tournament despite losing three of their last four. They have one bad loss (#125 Ole Miss), a few solid but unspectacular nonconference wins, and—like most every other Big Ten team—some impressive work at home coupled with tough losses on the road, with the lone exception a 58-49 home loss to Wisconsin. Bart Torvik currently projects them between a 7 and 8 seed.

Once again, this team centers on power forward Lamar Stevens, who's upped his efficiency this year while keeping his usage in the 30% range. While not a great shooter, particularly from beyond the arc, Stevens is built like a grown-ass man and plays like it. He gets 42% of his shots at the rim and makes 58% there, an impressive mark given over 60% of his makes at the basket are unassisted. He's shooting a rock-solid 44% on other twos in large part because he can finish strong from outside the paint—he's only attempted 19 long twos compared to 42 between the rim and long two range. He also, as you'd imagine, gets to the line often, and he makes a solid 74% of his free throws.

Meanwhile, he's also the heart and soul of PSU's defense. Even with some three-point and free-throw noise, these defensive splits (guarantee games removed, via Hoop Lens) are absurd:

PSU is six percentage points worse as a two-point defense, and it generally appears like they can't communicate when Stevens isn't out there—I can't chalk up a three-point number that bad solely to luck, plus their foul rate nearly doubles. They have a tough time containing the ballhandler when he's not on the floor. Stevens is almost always out there, but points can be had in bunches when he's not, and a quick run can make the difference in this game.

Stevens has an efficient perimeter companion in sophomore shooting guard Myreon Jones, an excellent off-ball scorer shooting 40% on three-pointers. He keeps the ball moving well enough to avoid being Just A Shooter™, but he's a shot-hunter first and foremost; because of a lack of depth and quality at point guard, he moonlights as a lead guard. He's also proven to be a solid defender.

Junior Jamari Wheeler runs the point, albeit not with a steady hand; he averages 3.7 points, 2.7 assists, and 1.7 turnovers in 23 minutes per game. He falls into the "nearly invisible" category by usage on KenPom, which makes turning the ball over on a third of his possessions particularly tough to stomach. He's out there for his defense; his 4.0% steal rate ranks in the top 50 nationally and he grades out in the 88th percentile as an on-ball defender on Synergy.

That brings us to the two spots that have changed hands recently. At center, John Harrar has taken the starting role from Mike Watkins in an effort to juice up the offense a bit. Watkins is the more talented player and a defensive stalwart, ranking seventh nationally in block rate, but the offense drops off when he's out there because he's using a decent number of possessions that mostly rely on others to create—when left to his own devices, he's not particularly effective.

Harrar, meanwhile, has flashed an effective post game and is an excellent offensive rebounder, and while he doesn't block a lot of shots, he stays disciplined with his positioning, which can be an issue for Watkins when he hunts blocks. Harrar will probably start again; both will play about half the game.

On the wing, freshman Seth Lundy has provided an offensive boost, putting up double digit points in each of the last two games after moving into the starting lineup. He mostly sticks to the perimeter and he's 15-for-35 on three-pointers. Defense is an issue, though; he's committing seven fouls per 40 minutes, an alarming number for a non-center, and grades out in the 16th percentile on Synergy.

The player Lundy replaced, Myles Dread, has played strong defense this season—88th percentile on Synergy—but he's an extreme Just A Shooter™ whose shot has abandoned him. Dread connected on 36% of his 188 three-point attempts last season; he's at 29% on 108 attempts this year. Given he's only attempted 20 shots inside the arc, it's hard to keep him out there when he's not making threes.

St. Bonaventure transfer Izaiah Brockington has proven to be a solid bench scorer. He's at his best when attacking the basket, where he finishes well and draws a high number of fouls. He hasn't shot well from the perimeter this year but he was a 42% three-point shooter as a freshman; he's still a willing gunner with a shot that looks like it should start falling. He's also currently first in the Big Ten in steal rate, though those come with their fair share of fouls.

The other key reserve is grad transfer Curtis Jones, who's wasn't very effective as a three-point gunner in his prior stops at Indiana and Oklahoma State. That's continued at PSU, where he takes about 2/3rds of his shots from beyond the arc and makes 31% of them, right in line with his career mark.

THE TEMPO-FREE

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Four Factors explanation

Michigan's league-worst defense has been much-discussed around here. The second-worst Big Ten defense belongs to Penn State. (Incidentally, U-M has the #1 conference strength of schedule, PSU #2.) While the Nittany Lions lead the B1G in both block and steal rates, they're fouling at an absurd rate, getting pounded on the glass, and allowing opponents to torch them on three-pointers. They've been heavily turnover-reliant all season, which is tough to carry over to the turnover-averse Big Ten, and their rebounding and foul numbers have been ugly all year. Those aren't the areas Michigan tends to exploit, unfortunately.

Penn State loves to run on offense, which helps explain the woeful rebounding numbers. According to Synergy, 23.8% of their possessions occur in transition, the eight-most nationally and second among high-major teams. Despite that pace, they've been good at avoiding turnovers, which also helps prop up a somewhat stagnant halfcourt offense. They're a poor shooting team overall, so winning the possession battle is going to be key.

THE KEYS

Win the possession battle. This is largely a weakness vs. weakness matchup, which tends to add a level of unpredictability. Penn State is not a good rebounding team on either end, though the insertion of Harrar into the starting lineup has helped to some extent. Michigan generally doesn't send many players to the glass, and that won't change against a team that wants to run. Neither team turns the ball over often; PSU's defense leans far more on creating turnovers to get stops. This could very much go either way.

Send help. If Livers isn't available, Michigan's only Lamar Stevens-sized option to slow down Lamar Stevens is Brandon Johns, and slowing down Lamar Stevens is the primary way to beat Penn State. While Michigan has been hesitant to send help to any defender, there should be an emphasis on at least paying some extra attention to Stevens when he gets down low; there are only a couple shooting threats. Stevens is turnover-prone against tougher competition; throwing extra help his way could also keep Johns out of foul trouble, which will be critical, even if it's just in the form of someone else taking a foul at the rim instead of him.

Shut down the transition game. As mentioned above, Penn State leans as hard on the fast break as any major conference team in the country. Michigan hasn't been nearly as disciplined in shutting that down as they were last year. If Stevens is charging past unwitting defenders after a made basket, that's big trouble. Get back, everyone.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 5.

A Big Ten home game.