THE ESSENTIALS

[After THE JUMP: A basketball preview. I know.]

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan was dump-trucked out the Bahamas by an athletic Texas Tech team that took one look at Michigan's defense and for the first time all year figured out how to put the ball in the bucket. The Wolverines found some offense late by running Dug down the lane, but everything else they've been doing on offense got suffocated out of them. They were built to be a defensive team, and as the St. John's game gets further in the rear-view mirror it's becoming more apparent that they'll need to be, and are most certainly not. Can they start the turnaround in a week?

Oregon would be a good place to start. They're another athletic team but one that's missing its star center N'Faly Dante and his excellent defensive backup Nate Bittle. With no frontcourt the Ducks have had to turn to a 6'9" winger at the five, and hope the spacing that creates can get their actual wings into the lane. This hasn't helped their defense; they gave up 88 to one of the teams Gonzaga regularly thrashes in the Emerald Coast Classic, and Alabama put up 99. Free throw shooting has been dodgy, but the way Michigan's been playing defense lately I don't think Dana Altman is particularly worried.

Wing-types have been tearing these wingless Wolverines apart, and Oregon's specialize in putting fouls on any bigs looking to abuse their lack of one down low. Considering they're playing this one among the redwoods, that's probably not changing. It's way too early in the season to talk about saving Michigan's season, but it's probably not too early to be talking about opportunities for Q1 wins, and this one is a golden opportunity. If they've figured out how to switch and deal with tempo in the last seven days it'll be a game. If they haven't, you're forgiven for flipping back to the SEC Championship.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tray Jackson's minutes have increased but Tschetter's been the better player thus far. I do not like this sentence.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

Typically we talk about the best players first, but in Oregon's case the best two they've got are going to be unavailable. Altman's been throwing a ton of bag at center prospects for years, and thought he'd finally built a team around 2019 top-fifteen prospect N'Faly Dante, so losing him in the first game of the season to a hamstring was quite a blow. It became a crisis two games later when his able backup Nate Bittle suffered a wrist injury. Add last year's 7-foot uber recruit, #2 overall Kel'el Ware, transferring to Indiana in the offseason and that's how the most center-rich team in the nation last year that suddenly finds itself without one despite graduating nobody. Both Dante and Bittle are expected back in January, so the Ducks only need an interim identity to tide them over until their frontcourt can return.

The one they came up with for their nonconference tournament was to slide five-star freshman winger Kwame Evans into the post and try to slash teams to death from five out. Evans is a fluid lefty who came through the Montverde program, and projects as a switchable four or five when he develops. He is a freshman, though, and while Evans has some bounciness the thing he had to develop coming out of high school was his spot-up shooting, which has borne out with terrible numbers on a lot of attempts thus far: 47/24/60. That's not nearly enough to make up for being a 6-9/200-pound freshman trying to play center against 25-year-olds.

As long as they're stuck with Evans, Oregon is making the most of it by spreading the ball around a bunch of combo types all found somewhere on the Not-Just-a-Shooter/Slasher spectrum.

SF Jermain Cousinard took control of the offense against Alabama, scoring 24 on 17 shot equivalents and adding six assists with just a pair of turnovers. He's done it before—Cousinard was the giant point guard for South Carolina for three years before coming to Eugene last season and taking on a secondary role. He's not a good shooter or finisher, with a career split line of 44/31/68, but he can get to the basket and draw contact. Michigan probably needs to burn Nimari Burnett on Cousinard, since a matchup with T-Will or Jackson could turn badly.

PG Keeshan Barthelemy is another second-year Duck, having played two seasons (one as the starter) for Colorado. The Quebecois typically makes his free throws and doesn't turn the ball over, but he's more of a tertiary option than the type of player you want to lean your offense on. He was a well-regarded recruit expected to get better as he filled out, but having done so he's more of an Abdul-Rahkman type.

SG Jesse Zarzeula is one furry face I was really hoping to never see again after he scored 19 in CMU's upset victory at Crisler last year. He came in to that one on a 2/14 cold streak from outside, and has been that streaky going back to his freshman year at Coppin State. Zarz's role in the offense has diminished with each up-transfer. His main move, as we saw, is faking a shot then driving and trying to pick up contact. When he's feeling it he starts to launch, and "feeling it" doesn't necessarily mean he's making them. One path to victory for Michigan in this game is if they can get away with letting Zarzuela have the arc. One way it can get away from them is if they don't have the guards to contain Zarz along with the others.

PF Jadrian Tracy drew into the lineup when Evans had to shift over, and is the kind of just-a-shooter who is also a slasher. Either way, he's more of a passenger on this ship. Two years ago Tracy was a wild but promising freshman athlete for Saint Joe's, but he lost most of last year to injury and was recruited by Oregon to be a 6'5" depth piece, not play major minutes.

The bench:

• W Brennan Rigsby technically doesn't start, but he's probably going to be on the court as much or more than Tracy. He's an Ahrens-level Just a Shooter.
• F Kario Oquendo will also take some turns at the four. He's only 6-4 but burly with a kamikaze treak. He drew 5 and 6 fouls per 40 in two post-JUCO years with Georgia, and also put up back-to-back 27% years from the arc on high volume. Oregon's managed to get Oquendo to stop shooting when it's not there—he's 4/7, all assisted—and picking his spots has made him more efficient offensively. He's mostly a defensive guy though.
• Freshman PG Jackson Shelstad is a top-25 recruit who didn't play the first four games and grabbed a large rotation role in the Florida tourney, including 26 minutes in their 99-91 loss to Alabama. He drew some fouls but also turned the ball over three times, which was an issue in his first game too. Like Evans, and this team once they get their bigs back, Shelstad seems like a guy who'll be able to help them in February.
• The other post option is fifth year senior Mahamadou Diawara, who came off the bench the last four years for Stetson. The years Stetson had to play him for more than 10 minutes/game they were in the 300s in Kenpom, and when they had start him for the last month of 2021-'22 they were the worst team in basketball. Diawara can draw foulds, but he's floor-bound and once you move him away from the basket he's toast. He fouled out in 20 minutes against Bama.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overall numbers:

We ain't got no centers! The rebounding stands out but there's some context: Dante had 21(!!!) rebounds in his one game this year, and Bittle had 18 boards in about 2.5 games. Kwame Evans will crash—he has 12 offensive rebounds this year—but their team numbers are inflated by various wings getting to loose balls and clanged threes. Altman teams are good at limiting turnovers, which is impressive for how many shots they take at the rim with sub-6'5" guys. They're not so great at limiting blocks.

THE KEYS

Size and switch. Oregon's a team of wingy-guards with a small forward; Michigan's a team of forwards with a tiny guard. How the weird matchups go with determine the game. I kinda lean towards

Nkamhoua vs a younger version of self. Evans was clearly outmatched against a 7-footer vs Santa Clara, but he's bouncy and athletic, which was an issue for Nkamhoua.

Maximize Tarris Reed minutes. His inside game should be unstoppable and his defense should be an asset against a team that wants to get to the rim with their athleticism.

Shoot over. One path to victory is Michigan's going to have a few major size advantages. Medium-range twos are going to be more open than usual, and anything at the rim should be good.

Don't get lost in the pines. That weird court is hard not to stare at, but I implore Michigan's defenders to keep their eyes on the little dudes in green. Bottom-100 defenses are not fun to write about, and football is about to go on hiatus.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Oregon by 3.