THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Nebrasketball: a constantly changing array of faces with more or less the same results annually. This year the Cornhuskers are relatively stable, which for them means they rank 249th in minutes continuity. They've also maintained Kenpom continuity, more or less. Every year under Fred Hoiberg the Cornhuskers are somewhere in the 100-150 range, give or take.

This year's edition is just outside of the upper end of the range thanks to some actual wins, headlined by beating #12 Creighton by ten at their place. They've also beaten Iowa, PSU, and OSU in Big Ten play, but got pounded y St Johns, Oklahoma, and Memphis in their other three major nonconference games and are 4-9 in Big Ten play.

We have reached the stage in the "must win" conversation where it is near literal. Michigan needs this game unless it wants to run the table down the stretch.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Now with usage bubbles for the bench.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Wilcher started until Gary got hurt, at which point it was time to blood the freshmen.

THE THEM

Tominga can get to the rim now. [Campredon]

It's probably bad news for Nebraska that their highest usage player is Derrick Walker, a 6'9" below-the-basket big. Walker was mostly a dunks-and-putbacks guy last year, when Bryce McGowens and Alonso Verge were sucking up possessions at a rapid rate. This year he's a much larger part of the Nebraska offense. He's budget Trevion Williams. His usage has shot up 11 points and his assist rate of 31 is almost top-50 nationally. Almost 40% of his shots are classified by Synergy as either post-ups or isos, and he's done well with those on a percentage basis.

All of this is offset by a 26 TO rate. Everything else that Walker's doing well is offset by a quarter of his box score contributions being turnovers and he lands at a 92 ORTG in conference play.

Hunter Dickinson has historically not had issues with these kinds of players—Zed Key is a pretty close comparable—on the defensive end, so I'd expect Michigan to let Walker go if he gets a post touch and see what happens.

NDSU transfer Sam Griesel is 6'7" but is closest thing to a point guard Nebraska has in the half-court . A plurality of his half-court usage is as a pick and roll ballhandler and he's the only guy outside of Walker to have much of an assist rate. Griesel has struggled with the uptransfer. His shooting hs dropped from 51/39 to 48/30 and in Big Ten play he's only hitting 41% from two.

Griesel is going to the rim first and foremost. His FT rate leads the conference and he gets to the rim a ton for a guy who is not the kind of 6'7" slasher who gets NBA guys interested. He does give off Franz Wagner vibes on some swooping drives:

He could do some damage against Jett Howard, who's the natural matchup given his size. Howard has been doing better as a one on one defender in recent weeks; this will be a reasonably decent test.

Shooting guard Kesei Tominaga has made a huge leap from last year, when he was the sort of unconscious gunner who would hit something crazy and then not hit several other crazy shots and do nothing else. After being Just A Shooter a year ago he's promoted himself to Not Just A Shooter territory by getting half of his shots inside the line. He's getting to the rim for more than half his twos(!?) and hitting 74% there, which is… not what I expected Kesei Tominaga to be doing to the Big Ten.

More judicious shot selection has also seen his three point shooting hit 39% on the season and 40% in Big Ten play; he has not seen turnovers tick up even as a result of the extra usage. It is imperative that Michigan not allow Tominaga to shoot on the catch, where he's averaging 1.6 PPP. He is a 99th percentile spot-up threat, which is probably why he's so good at the rim: those are all back-cuts or diving off of screens.

Nebraska lost Emmanuel Bandomel and Juwan Gary for the year in the last month and has turned to a couple of true freshman in the aftermath.

Guard Jamarques Lawrence was the #196 guy on the composite. He's currently blazing the nets from three (41%) and struggling inside the arc and at the line. He has a typical freshman combo A:TO ratio (bad). Spectacularly-named Denim Dawson was #284 on the composite; he's a 6'6" wing who's currently trying to stay out of the way on offense with a usage rate of 11 and a 74 ORTG suggesting that usage should probably be a little lower.

The bench is Not Good, especially without Bandomel and Gary:

• Wilhelm Breidenbach backs up Walker at the five. He's sort of a stretch five in that he believes he can shoot threes but cannot. He's hitting 36% from two in Big Ten play and is a career 20% three point shooter on 56 attempts. He's still pretty wiry and not very strong so he's a mediocre rebounder.
• CJ Wilcher started most of the year but hsi persistent shooting struggles saw him hit the bench in early January. Last year he hit 56/41 from the floor, and those numbers have dropped to 44/32 with recent trends even more negative. He more than anyone else really benefited from the McGowens/Verge combo that created space. Last year he was getting a fair clip of assisted twos away from the rim; this year his other twos have a 0% assist rate and have gone from a reasonably good shot to a very bad one.
• Walk-on Sam Hoiberg, the coach's kid, had played a total of 12 minutes until the Bandomel injury. He's gotten 16 MPG since and has actually been kind of good? He's 9/13 from two and 3/8 from three, he hasn't turned it over or fouled much. He's listed at 6' and is a walk-on who didn't warrant a 247 profile so I imagine you can assert all the negative things in the world about his athleticism.

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers:

Nebraska gets an eighth of their shots blocked, worst in the conference, and is just 62% from the free throw line. Defensively, they're worst in the league at defending twos and give up an absolute bucketload of threes—almost half of opposition shots are threes. They are going to double Dickinson relentlessly.

THE KEYS

Dickinson vs doubles. We've seen some adjustments in the last couple games to help—Terrance Williams diving to the bucket instead of sitting outside the line, that sort of thing. Dickinson's also been relatively patient when finding what to do. Continued progress in this department would be welcome.

Tominaga spot-up counter. Any spot up from him is a bad shot to give up. Maybe he's shooting 75% at the rim, but let the man drive if he wants to.

Jett defending Griesel. Griesel's got good assist numbers and has a similar frame; if Jett isn't able to stay in front of Griesel things start breaking down and then they can kick it around to Tominaga.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.