THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan's first repeat opponent of the year is Nebraska, who Michigan beat by 35 on December 7th. That game featured an avalanche of threes from Michigan (15/32); they also shot 55% from two and picked up OREBs on almost 40% of their misses. That's how you put up 102 in a regulation college game. The only concerning thing about that game from Michigan's standpoint was Alonzo Verge, who put up 32 on 24 shooting possessions by repeatedly toasting Michigan's guards in isolation situations.

Since things have not gone any better for the Cornhuskers. Their only win since is against Kenesaw State. They've been competitive in a few different games (OT against OSU, < 10 point losses to Indiana, Wisconsin, and Rutgers) but have slipped way down the Kenpom rankings, approaching pre-Pikiell Rutgersland.

This is the easiest game on the schedule and tourney hopes are dead as a doornail if Michigan doesn't win.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Verge had a death in the family right before Nebraska's most recent game and sat out. Hoiberg expects him to play tonight.

THE THEM

The personnel breakdown from the first preview is still largely accurate. Updates:

• Alonzo Verge can't really shoot but is shooting 46% on buckets of twos and has the fourth-highest assist rate in the nation. Kind of wish Michigan had targeted him in the portal. If he was on a non-terrible team he'd probably have pretty  good numbers.
• Shooting guard Keisei Tominaga lost his starting job a couple of games ago and was given extremely limited minutes (5 and 9) in Nebraska's two most recent outings.
• This is because Trey McGowens returned to the lineup three games ago. He missed the first game against Michigan so I did not discuss him much. He is a wild chucker who shot well from three last year (38%) and was barely better than that (39%) inside the arc. He does get to the line a lot and is another isolation guy who might have an advantage against Michigan's unathletic guards.
• Star freshman Bryce McGowens has picked up the playmaking a bit but has seen his efficiency dip tremendously in Big Ten play, where his two point shooting is just 40%.

THE TEMPO FREE

Not much has changed here:

Nebraska is getting crushed on the glass at both ends. The guys who play the four are either a 6'5" guy or a 6'9" guy who weighs 215. Derrick Walker about the only guy getting any offensive rebounds that aren't long ones that bounce directly to a guy. Nebraska remains in the 300s at shooting threes but they take an average number of them.

I also tend to think that Nebraska's combination of giving up a lot of threes that go in a lot is not random chance after watching the first game. They have to double the post and don't rotate well.

Nebraska is top 15 in tempo so Michigan will have to get back.

THE KEYS

For the love of God, hit a shot. MSU had something to do with Michigan's inefficiency from outside—but mostly in the second half. Prior to that they'd been on fire. I mean. It's Nebraska. Hit shots, win.

Maybe not with the hedging? Blitzing ball screens was disastrous against MSU and seems to play into all of Michigan's deficiencies on defense. If this team gets aggressive they get shredded. Yes, teams are shooting over Michigan. Oh well. Man's got to know his limitations, sort of thing. If Michigan loses to Nebraska it should be because they shot 70% in the midrange on a crap ton of attempts. Just keep them away from the rim and the rest should take care of itself.

Moussa time. Another situation where Diabate should have a huge advantage over whoever is checking him, particularly on the boards.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 15.