THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

The version of Michigan that shoots threes like a Beilein team usually does is a beast to be reckoned with. Iowa found this out in a game that was only competitive for as long as it was because of a weird cross-match defensive strategy that saw Luka Garza score over Brazdeikis on every one of his first half possessions that Teske didn't block (he rebounded two of his own misses for putbacks). In all other ways Michigan stuffed the Hawkeyes in a burlap sack and threw them in the river.

Thanks to another questionable Carsen Edwards outing—4/17 from the floor—Michigan meets Minnesota for the third time. This version of the Gophers is whittled down and probably pretty tired, but the version of Michigan that shoots threes like a man who's been told making one will cause a kitten to explode lurks around every corner.

THE LINEUP CARD

Click for big.

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country. Minutes are from the last five games except where starred.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	0	Dupree McBrayer	Sr.	6'5, 195	88	18	100	Yes
Ugly shooting: 41/28 in conference. Does do some playmaking on his own.
G	34	Gabe Kalscheur	Fr.	6'4, 200	77	16	113	No
Composite #198 FR has expanded his game a little but is still mostly Just A Shooter hitting 42% from deep.
F	21	Amir Coffey	Jr.	6'8, 210	96	24	105	Sort of
Wiry swingman being forced into a lot of tough shots, shooting 49/31, gets to the line a lot.
F	35	Jordan Murphy	Sr.	6'6 250	93	27	110	Yes
Bull of a PF grabs all the rebounds but can't really shoot and lack of size makes him meh (59%) at rim. Assist rate has doubled in final year. Drawing a ton of fouls.
C	22	Daniel Oturu	Fr.	6'10, 225	58	23	107	Yes
Composite #50 FR is already an excellent defensive C. 13% OREB rate, 7% block rate, almost all his shots at the rim. Black hole you can and should double. 5.5 fouls per 40.
G	23	Isaiah Washington	So.	6'1 195	0	23	85	God Yes
Disaster unicorn has been healthy scratch in last 5 games.
F	1	Eric Curry	Jr.	6'9, 240	22	15	96	Yes
Out for the year.
G	2	Brock Stull	So.	6'4, 210	32	10	95	No
Just A Shooter with tiny season totals. 5/17 from 2, 10/22 from 3.
C	15	Matz Stockman	Sr.	7'0, 245	36	25	106	Yes
Lanky Dutchman is Haarms-ish on D but strictly a roll guy on O.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

[Ben Ludeman]

The last time we saw Minnesota they were solidly on the bubble; they're off it now after two wins against Purdue in short succession. That didn't stop Richard Pitino from yelling at Joe Lunardi for putting Minnesota in his "last four byes" section immediately after yesterday's win over the Boilers—it's been a tense stretch run. He's not wrong, he's just a Pitino.

Anyone who's watched Michigan's two games against the Gophers thus far probably doesn't need much of a refresher. The Gophers have a rebounding beast at the 4 in Jordan Murphy, no point guard, a promising freshman C, and erratic shooting. Amir Coffey does two things per game that make you think he's an NBA player and entirely deserves his 104 ORTG otherwise.

The usual bulleted personnel updates on the original overview:

• Eric Curry is out for the year. I don't know what it is with fortuitously timed center injuries in the league this year but that makes Minnesota a butt-ton better when Oturu is off the floor, because Matz Stockman whoops up on Curry in every imaginable way. But…
• Stockman took a thunderous elbow from Trevion Williams and is questionable for the game. If he can't go the Gophers will have to play Jordan Murphy at center when Oturu's out. Minnesota is already facing steep odds to win the BTT and has secured a place in the non-bye section of the tournament so if there's any question I'd imagine Minnesota saves Stockman for next week.
• Isaiah Washington has missed the last five games despite being healthy. As a result…
• Minnesota's rotation has thinned to the point of Craig Ross approval. Stockman and Brock Stull are the only bench players getting more than a spare minute or two. Hopefully this leads to some tired legs.

All other Gophers are more or less what Michigan saw in the first two games. Oturu has slashed almost a foul per 40 off his foul rate since the last Michigan matchup not too long ago, and since he's a freshman that's likely to be development rather than luck. It may also reflect a Teske-like permissiveness early in games.

ABOUT LAST TIME (AND THE OTHER LAST TIME)

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan escaped with a two-point win at Crisler thanks to some late heroics from Charles Matthews. That game was close largely because Michigan was 3/22 from three on what felt like an average or better set of looks.

The game at the Barn was much more comfortable despite being on the road. Michigan annihilated the Gopher offense in the first half but couldn't capitalize on the other end; they still took a 10 point lead into halftime. That lead got extended to 20 over the first six minutes of the second half, and while Minnesota was able to push back a bit the game was stapled in the 98%+ win probability zone for the remainder.

In marked contrast to the first game Michigan achieved this by scorching the nets from 3, going 13 for 28. Simpson had 12 assists. Minnesota got approximately zilch from anyone not named Murphy or Oturu; while those guys were able to hump up 18 points each they took 18 shot equivalents each to do so.

THE TEMPO-FREE

The preview before game #2 noted a strange surge in Minnesota's offense paired with a decline in their defense; by the time the season wrapped up both of those oddities had moved back towards the middle. Minnesota's O (#6 in league play) is still better than their D (#10), but the margins are thin.

The Gophers averaged out to average so much that only two of the eight possible factors on Kenpom warrant a color shading beyond ephemeral:

The Gophers get to the line a metric butt-ton and are pretty bad at forcing turnovers. All else is the bland. Once you drill down things get a bit more interesting: Minnesota takes by far the fewest 3s in the league and is 12th in two-point D. Other than that: it all averages out to average-ish.

Michigan has won the stylistic battle in the first two matchups: the Gophers had 14 and 18 FTAs, which is closer to Michigan's minuscule defensive FT rate than Minnesota's inflated number.

THE KEYS

[Ben Ludeman]

Matthews perimeter D. Minnesota has been massively dependent on Coffey of late; he hasn't been held below 20 points in their last 5. Against Michigan and Matthews: 6 points on 16 shot equivalents and 11 points on 13. Coffey has been Consumed Bit By Bit By A Hannibal Lecter Type. A hale Matthews likely forces the same level of performance and then it's a question about whether Michigan can outpace 0.8 points per possession.

Matthews is likely hale. Hale enough, anyway. While he returned with a wonky shot (1/9 from the field) on the other end Joe Wieskamp scored 3 points on 6 shot equivalents.

Endurance. Michigan gets a Minnesota outfit that had to play on Thursday, that an OT game, and has been reduced to a short bench. Coffey hasn't come off the floor in the tournament; Murphy and McBrayer have sat for 2 and 5 minutes, respectively.

Meanwhile Michigan got the double bye and ran Iowa off the floor. Teske, Matthews, and Poole all got 24-26 minutes and were able to rest for the last quarter of the game. If fatigue is ever going to be an obvious issue it'll be here.

Dig on bigs. Whoever's on Kalscheur will have to stick to him since he's a knockdown shooter (42%). Minnesota's best three point guy other than him is Coffey at 31%. This is a game to abandon some of the no threes principles Michigan has adhered to in the Yaklich era. Especially early Michigan will probably offer Teske a bunch of help, because the alternatives aren't threatening while foul trouble is.

Box Murphy out even when you're contesting his shot? I'm conceding Murphy 6 points on self-putbacks going in. Bah.

We can have a bench? Eli Brooks? Did some things? A couple of hilariously bad things got mixed in there, to be sure, but a bench player who can take and make a couple of threes is a big improvement. Brooks also has four steals in his last two games.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.