THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Michigan has taken a flamethrower to Iowa and Minnesota to set a record for consecutive Big Ten Tourney wins at 10. Michigan State is the last roadblock between an unprecedented third consecutive conference tourney championship—and unfortunately it's a roadblock Michigan is 0-2 against this season.

But it's not like I'm not going to embed this.

THE LINEUP CARD

Click for big.

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	SIBMIHHAT
G	0	Cassius Winston	Jr.	6'1, 185	89	29	123	No
Egads, a bonafide PG. #3 assist rate nationally, shooting 52/41, big usage. Defense better this year.
G	34	Matt McQuaid	Sr.	6'5, 200	85	14	126	No
3&D McPoyle shooting 41/42 split, allergic to rim. Does mostly deserve D rep, somehow.
F	21	Aaron Henry	Fr.	6'6, 210	48	15	102	Yes
Composite #141 FR mostly a dunk on assists guy. 25 TO rate when he tries to create. Very occasionally shoots a 3.
F	35	Kenny Goins	Sr.	6'6 230	73	15	112	No
Gritty grittenstein has added okay good Satanic(39%) three point shot out of nowhere. Rebound magnet, creates nothing. Excellent block rate for 6'6 guy.
C	22	Xavier Tillman	So.	6'8, 245	80*	20	121	Yes
Excellent utility guy shooting 65% in B10, rebound magnet, top 100 block rate, gets some steals, 71% at line. Very dependent on assists, 4.9 fouls per 40.
G	23	Foster Loyer	Fr.	4'11 170	13	19	101	Yes
Gnome gets about 4 MPG. Had breakout game in quarters, back to anonymity in semis.
F	1	Kyle Ahrens	Jr.	6'6, 210	45	13	114	Meh
Low usage Not Just A Shooter hitting 63/30 from the floor. Injury Q.
F	2	Gabe Brown	Fr.	6'7, 210	15	12	129	No
Composite #101 FR is Just A Shooter hitting  34% from deep.
C	15	Nick Ward	Jr.	6'9, 245	25*	30	104	Yes
Half-bear is high usage post-only scorer who's much worse on D than Tillman.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Ward is active but mostly on the bench [Campredon]

This will be Michigan's third game against MSU in three weeks so everyone should know the score. Nick Ward has returned from his hand injury and has struggled. He racked up 4 fouls in limited time against both OSU (14 minutes) and Wisconsin (11 minutes) and has four TOs vs just six shot attempts.

Since he did not play in the first two games it's worth a refresher on him: Ward is the sort of post who's got a thunder-butt; he'll get down low, set up deep in the post, and muscle it up over whoever's covering him. He's shooting 60% from the floor and drawing buckets of fouls (he's 4th in the country in fouls drawn) but has a 20 TO rate. In MSU's top 100 games his shooting falls a few points and the TO rate ticks up to put him at a 99 ORTG.

Unless Ward gets an early duck-in in transition, any shots he takes are a gift. He was 4/11 from the floor in two games last year and was limited to 24 minutes between them because Michigan ripped him so badly on D. He is not in Tillman's class as a defender and isn't going to be blocking guards who drive him on hypothetical switches.

Reminder, this is what MSU looks like with Ward on the floor and Tillman off it since Big Ten play resumed in January:

That is an Eric Curry-level gap. The amount of PT Ward gets will be fascinating. The optimal number of minutes is probably 7. He'll get more than that.

The only other thing that qualifies as new is Foster Loyer, who came off the bench against OSU to hit 4/5 threes and put up a 3 assist to 1 TO. He got 12 minutes against Wisconsin and missed his only shot while turning it over once. Over/under on his minutes still remains 1 unless Winston gets hit with foul trouble, but what Loyer has done is get Winston to Sunday without having more miles on his legs than Simpson.

Oh and the deal with the devil Tom Izzo made in re: Kenny Goins is getting absurd. He's up to 39% from 3 on the year and 41% in top 100 games. What on earth.

ABOUT LAST TIME

A typical trip to Breslin: a 28-7 free throw deficit before 2 intentional FTAs, extended minutes for Brooks, Johns, Castleton, and DeJulius, Brazdeikis fouling out in 22 minutes, a whistle so slanted Dan Dakich made it an extended talking point, absurd phantom calls in which a gnome is blown over by the wind. Last year MSU was in the bonus with five minutes gone in each half. Fun!

In 2018 Michigan was able to overcome. In 2019, not so much. A primary factor: Tillman. Michigan repeatedly drove him on pick and roll switches only for Tillman to swallow up the guard, picking up a whopping five blocks.

**By my count, Michigan scored 24 points on the 29 possess. (0.83 PPP) Michigan State switched with its '5' man. Xavier Tillman's ability to effectively switch unlocked this gameplan for MSU. His defense was *superb,* stifling Michigan guards all night: pic.twitter.com/9hc1AYGkNE

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 11, 2019

MSU was able to dissuade passes to the interior frustratingly well, and the one time Teske got an and-one on the switch he was called for a phantom travel.

Add in the inverse of the kind of luck Michigan just got against Minnesota—one memorable sequence saw Simpson blow an uncontested layup and Winston bank in a three—and that's a recipe for a 12-point loss. 

THE TEMPO-FREE

Tillman still starting [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

On offense:

• MSU is 70th in average possession length but this really understates their tempo. MSU is sixth nationally in the number of shots that go up in the first ten seconds of the clock.
• They're good inside the line and out and 14th in eFG%, first in the league inside the line.
• They remain pretty pretty bad at TOs, sitting exactly 200th.
• They're 20th in OREBs, first in B10 play.
• They're #1 nationally in assist rate.

On defense:

• They are again outstanding in eFG%. A team with two 6'8 guys at center is second nationally in 2PT% D because they're top 20 in block rate. Both of these hold up in league play. Flat out bizarre.
• Like Maryland they're horrible at forcing TOs, 326th.
• They're 11th in DREBs, which is also bizarre given their OREB rate. They do try to block a ton of shots, I guess.
• They give up a reasonable number of threes but in league play opponents are hitting just 29%. That's probably luck.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Put Matthews on Winston some. MSU's offense against Michigan is screen, rescreen, rescreen, rescreen. Michigan has the luxury of spreading that burden out amongst two elite perimeter defenders and should do so. Matthews's length has the possibility to bother Winston on both his uncannily accurate midrange floaters and his assists to the roller. Hopefully Michigan will start with that and see if it works.

Michigan did force 5 TOs from Winston last time out and hold him to a pedestrian ORTG, so Simpson's not a bad option. But both guys alternating is for the best.

Oblig transition mention. It's stunning to watch other teams play MSU and get burned by transition repeatedly. Michigan has forced MSU into the half-court better than anyone else on their schedule. They might give up one or two buckets post-make but the impact of this particular gambit should be minimal.

I guess I have to say the attack switches thing again. I don't know if Michigan's going to be able to do much better in this department. Feeding the post isn't a thing Michigan ever does, and MSU has been able to dissuade passes into an interior mismatch for 60 of the 80 minutes the two teams have played. Meanwhile Tillman's been able to keep up with Michigan's guards.

I wonder if Michigan will try some unusual combinations in their two-man game in an effort to take Tillman out of the equation. Goins is a good defender in his own right but he's shorter and might be less able to bother shots on drives.

Weird guys. If Johns, Brooks, Castleton, and DeJulius combine for 50 minutes again Michigan's chances of victory are low. Hopefully the officiating in this one will allow Michigan to contest vertically. Always a crapshoot.

Someone get hot. If Poole or Iggy could scorch the nets on some tough shots that would be real nice.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 1.