THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#26 Michigan (0-0) vs #155 PFW (0-0)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	6:30 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -17 Torvik: M -13
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan attempts to avenge Tiny Jesus for a second time as they open the season against Purdue Fort Wayne—which I liked better before their rebrand, as prior moniker "Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne" was a ridiculous mouthful. Last year a December game between these two teams was cancelled due to a Mastodons COVID outbreak.

When actually on the court, PFW shared the Horizon League regular season title with Cleveland State but lost in the conference tournament and had to settle for a one-and-done appearance in the NIT. They return the vast majority of their production and are co-favorites with Northern Kentucky to repeat as league champs. This is a good mid-major and a relatively dangerous team to take on in a season opener—no 300+ Kenpom ranking here.

FWIW, a very similar PFW team played Minnesota last year and got hammered 78-49.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Some updates: usage is now the black circles you see, with a big circle meaning… yep, a lot of usage. Until the season's old enough to have its own stats we're going to denote transfers in other colors, indicating where the player's stats came from. More relevant for opponents.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

We're projecting D-II transfer Anthony Roberts into the starting lineup, because why not.

THE THEM

I was thinking I might be big and stuff. Ya that should work. [Campredon]

Fort Wayne is unfathomably old. Last year Kenpom listed every single one of their starters as seniors; four of the five are back to deploy COVID years, with only Jalon Pipkins moving on. Incoming transfer Anthony Roberts is also in his fourth year of college; top backup Deonte Billups is also a senior.

Wing Jarred Godfrey is a preseason All-Horizon pick and the alpha. He operates as a creator, with the highest assist rate on the team and an impressive 53/38/81 shooting line. Things were ugly last year in PFW's two top-100 quality games (those were at #89 Drake and at #109 Minnesota), as he was just 5/15 from two and had a turnover rate close to 30.

Godfrey is a driver who will attack closeouts and run PNR, so he'll provide an early test for Michigan's questionable wing-sized defenders. early returns from the exhibition were a bit squirrelly.

Point guard Damian Chong Qui might be familiar as That Avery Queen Lookin' Guy from a 2021 First Four matchup, when he was with Mount St. Mary's. Chong Qui is tiny, listed at 5'8", and has the usual profile of a 5'8" who plays D1 college basketball. He's super-quick, can knock down open threes at a nice clip, and struggles to get a shot up from inside the line. A 50% make clip at the rim, sort of thing. Chong Qui gets all his own shots and it'll be interesting to see who can stay in front of him. His career numbers in 12 Kenpom A+B games are pretty dismal: 34/30 shooting and an ORTG around 80.

Center Ra Kpedi goes 6'9", 245 and is a tremendously effective bully-ball guy at the Horizon level. He hit 65% from the floor last year and had a top 100 OREB rate, with virtually everything at the rim and most of it in assist/putback territory. That was his first year of significant playing time so he has virtually no history against high majors. Minnesota's Eric Curry put him in lockdown last year—2/7 from the floor, 2 TOs, limited to 17 minutes with foul trouble—and Dickinson is likely to do the same. He did manage 5 OREBs against the Gophers.

Stretch four Bobby Planutis is Just A Shooter hitting 39% from deep after hitting 46% the year before. He is a true sniper who's shooting more than 90% from the line over the past two years, and at 6'8" he has size to shoot over closeouts. On the rare occasions he ventures inside the line he is usually attacking a closeout and going to the rim, or cutting.

Finally, St. Cloud State transfer Anthony Roberts is moving from the D-II level and projecting that is basically impossible. He has legit size but his three point shooting has steady dropped as his role increased over the course of his career. Your guess is as good as mine.

The bench:

• The aforementioned Deonte Billups is Just A Shooter who hit 40% from deep last year. He hit just 38% of his limited twos against a very bad schedule so forays inside the arc look like a bad idea. Two years ago as a freshman he played a bunch against top 100 quality opponents and shot 33/28 from the floor.
• Backup big Johnathan DeJurnett is a Generic Midmajor Backup Big. Virtually all of his shots are at the rim, virtually all are assisted or putbacks. He's a 52% free throw shooter and his rebounding numbers are extremely weak. Listed at just 225.
• There will be some other deep bench mid-major types.

THE TEMPO FREE

Last year's four factors:

That defensive EFG number bodes unwell for them. Despite having legit size for a Horizon team they had no shotblocking and got absolutely crushed at the rim, giving up 64% there while giving up a ton of shots there. Offensively they hit a lot of shots, took a lot of threes, and knocked them down.

THE KEYS

Keep 'em in front. Super quick point guard and a relatively challenging wing matchup are good tests for a couple of weak spots of last year's D. Jett Howard has been reputed to be all O, no D, but that's a thing that changes as you get into college and your coach (who happens to be your dad) lays into your lack of output without the ball. Can he hold up? How far away from Michigan's previous transfer PGs is Llewellyn, athletically?

Feed the sandwich man. That's what I call Dickinson, because he likes sandwiches. Michigan took a while to get him involved in the exhibition, which seems like it would be a mistake against a team with this kind of interior defense.

Jett Howard keeps being Kevin Durant? Would be nice.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 17.