a bigger court could help bring back post play [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Hoops Mailbag: Next Big Change, Managing Attrition, Video Game Recs Comment Count

Ace May 20th, 2020 at 12:23 PM

It's a good time for another mailbag (read: content ideas are running low at the moment), starting with a big-picture question on the next big shift in basketball. I've got enough for a two-part mailbag, so if you're looking to get a question in, tweet it to me or email me.

Unpack The Courts

After reading Kirk Goldsberry's essential book, Sprawlball, on the evolution of shooting in the NBA and what the future may hold, I'm convinced the next major rules change will involve an attempt to deemphasize the three-point shot and bring the midrange/post game back into greater prominence. While I love today's pace-and-space era, particularly in comparison to '90s-style bully-ball, I sympathize with critics who'd like to see a significant swath of the court get utilized again.

Goldsberry suggests several potential rules changes that could fundamentally alter and modernize the game. One that's easy to implement and could have a significant impact is decreasing the size of the free throw lane. The reason that area is often referred to as the "key" is that it originally looked like one:

When George Mikan became too dominant on the interior, the NBA doubled the width of the paint to 12 feet, which is still the standard in the NCAA and high school. The NBA widened it even more, to 16 feet, in the 1960s in a successful attempt to prevent Wilt Chamberlain from averaging 50 points a game again. Shrink the lane back down to six or eight feet and suddenly post players have more prominence again because they can operate from closer to the hoop. This also opens up some space in the midrange area.

Goldsberry has a number of suggestions for altering the three-point line, including an idea that's picked up steam elsewhere: eliminating the corner three-pointer, which is now shorter in both the NBA and NCAA after the latter's move to the FIBA line last year. While the corner three has become a bit of a cheat code, particularly at the NBA level, I'm not a fan of getting rid of it.

Instead, I'd prefer a more drastic measure: widen the whole court. In the NBA and NCAA, the court is 94 feet by 50 feet, and that's been the case almost since basketball's inception, when the three-pointer didn't exist, nobody played above the rim, and being 6'8" made you a behemoth. (Mikan, the dominant force of the '50s, was 6'10".) The court wasn't designed with players of today's size and athleticism in mind; nobody could imagine how far the game would come from its set-shot origins.

You know how hockey in Olympic-sized rinks is way more fun than the smaller NHL standard? Basketball could get a similar jolt. Widening the court lets you move the three-point line back to a uniform distance. That makes all of those shots more difficult while eliminating the short corner and adding more space to operate inside the arc. Skilled shooters would still be able to launch threes, we'd see much less of centers and other marginal shooters chucking from long range, and players who could create off the dribble would gain more importance even if they weren't knockdown gunners.

That's a game I'd like to see. As basketball continues to become more three-or-layup-or-nothing, I expect we'll see major rule changes to get some offensive diversity back into the game.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

How to Attrition?

Ideally, you want to be replacing 2-4 scholarship players every season—you can usually expect and absorb the loss one or two starters (whether seniors or early NBA entries), an experienced rotation player, and a playing time transfer. Michigan has obviously dealt with more than that in the last couple years, first when Jordan Poole and Iggy Brazdeikis left early to varying degrees of surprise before John Beilein also exited the picture, then this offseason with three underclassmen transferring out of Juwan Howard's program.

While the two coaches have different recruiting styles that'll result in changing expectations for the type of attrition—you can anticipate more one-and-dones under Howard—I'm not sure the level of turnover will actually change much. This offseason should hold as an exception; all three transfers were Beilein recruits who likely thought they'd have bigger/different roles last season. Having that combine with two senior starters graduating and a third starter testing the draft waters is more a stroke of bad luck/timing than anything else.

Once Howard is able to balance out the roster, which may take some time given all the openings for 2021-22, I don't think we'll have too many offseasons of massive turnover, or at least not any more than you'd expect for a competitive high-major program. While Howard has targeted one-and-done types, Beilein (often unwittingly) had his fair share of one- or two-and-dones—if anything, Howard should be in better position to replace those guys because he knows the deal up front.

Meanwhile, Howard has added some "program guys" like Terrance Williams who should be around for four years, and he's done well on the transfer market under difficult circumstances. We're seeing him mold the roster to his vision for the program after taking over another coach's team, which almost always leads to attrition of the expected and unexpected varieties. Future offseasons should be less eventful.

The Future of Crisler

what if it didn't require a rivalry game to fill the lower bowl [Bryan Fuller]

I... well...

I'm going to withhold additional comment.

Shelter-At-Home Tips: Video Games

A part of this pandemic experience that's been eye-opening as a person with a chronic illness who's been mostly housebound for the last few years is that I've been more social during this time than I have in years because the rest of society has had to shift to something that's been a large part of my reality.

In high school and college, me and two of my closest friends spent most of our time together either outside playing sports or inside playing sports video games. We were those guys waiting outside GameStop for the midnight release of NCAA and Madden each year. We'd build dynasties together until the sun came up and spend rainy days playing round-robin head-to-head tournaments. One trip up north featured a series of Fight Night Round 3 so heated it almost derailed the vacation.

One friend still lives nearby, the other does not. When the latter would come into town before the pandemic, we'd get together and relive those days. When COVID-19 hit, we talked him—the final holdout—into getting a PS4 of his own, along with copies of the latest Madden and NBA2K. The 2K download finished before Madden arrived in the mail, so we picked three NBA teams, did a league-wide fantasy draft, and began an online franchise.

The game itself is fun. There are some bugs and exploits, as with pretty much any sports game, but the overall gameplay and look is remarkable. What's been way better, though, is throwing on the headset a few times each week and spending a couple hours in what amounts to a three-way call with two friends who aren't always inclined to pick up the phone—I'm the same way—and yammering away about virtual trades, draft prospects, and the upcoming playoffs.

It's been the perfect distraction for these times. We've spent a lot of time wondering why we hadn't started doing this years ago. There are no plans to stop whenever the pandemic ends.

Comments

Dopamine

May 20th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^

I bought my first PS4 right as the pandemic started too (never gamed too much before). Haven't tried any sports games yet, but so far RDR2 and Spider-man PS4 have both been remarkable to play.

A Fun Guy

May 20th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^

I've had a blast playing Catan online with friends whenever we all get the chance. Sometimes it gets so much fun that I almost completely forget about Belleville High school. 

AC1997

May 20th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^

I hadn't thought about the changes to the structure of the game.  I like both ideas a lot - and more than I like a 4-point shot.  I think the lane has some chance of happening but I do worry a little about the wider court because it requires more structural changes for arenas to deal with.  I'd like to think all NBA arenas could handle it, but I doubt college would make a similar change any time soon unfortunately.  

UMmasotta

May 20th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^

I'm in agreement. I think the wider court issues aren't so much structural as they are revenue-driven. Larger court equals fewer seats which equals fewer tickets sold. It's hard to get all the league owners to agree to lower revenues. They use the "structural/logistical issues" as a reason, but plenty of teams use the same arena as the local NHL team, so clearly that isn't a real issue. Unfortunately, I think the NHL's reason for not shifting to the international-size rink is the same (larger rink = fewer seats), even though the international ice would be soooo much more entertaining at the NHL level. 

OkemosBlue

May 20th, 2020 at 6:33 PM ^

I agree that revenue from a few rows of seats is probably more than made up by higher television revenues and ticket prices from improving the game on both the pro and college level.  But there is a problem in a sport that requires all playing areas to be the same (unlike baseball for example).  Most major basketball arenas can make the change with little or difficulty, but a few might not.  For example,  Duke basketball arena (Cameron).  The farther you get away from the major colleges, the more colleges will have a legiitmate financial reason to balk. 

OkemosBlue

May 20th, 2020 at 6:33 PM ^

I agree that revenue from a few rows of seats is probably more than made up by higher television revenues and ticket prices from improving the game on both the pro and college level.  But there is a problem in a sport that requires all playing areas to be the same (unlike baseball for example).  Most major basketball arenas can make the change with little or difficulty, but a few might not.  For example,  Duke basketball arena (Cameron).  The farther you get away from the major colleges, the more colleges will have a legiitmate financial reason to balk. 

AC1997

May 20th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^

I love mailbags as filler content - usually worth a read.  This one was good, though it felt a little short.  So here's a question for Ace (or the board).  We're going to play the roster what-if game for next season with basketball:

  1. If Livers stays at Michigan, would you rather..
    A - Brown gets a waiver, Eastern doesn't
    B - Eastern gets a waiver, Brown doesn't
    C - Neither get a waiver
    D - Both get a waiver
     
  2. If Livers goes to the NBA, would you rather...
    Same list A-D
     

What I think is best for the program (not the same as the players obviously), I'd go...

  • 1=B (gives us another ball handler and defender, surround Eastern with shooters, Brown can anchor the following senior)
  • 2=A (fills Livers' spot, Eastern can be the leader the following year when we need bodies)

Gameboy

May 20th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^

When I initially got Zelda: Breath of the Wind, I gave up after a couple of days because the world was so friggin huge and I kinda got lost.

But WOW, it has been a lifesaver over the last few weeks. The fact the the world is so huge and interesting is great now that I have more time to play. The depth of this game is simply incredible. It may be the best video game I have ever played. Just fantastic.

IDKaGoodName

May 20th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^

To comment on the first portion of the post regarding basketball changes:

first to 21 points wins

have to score exactly 100 or 80 points to win (ie 79-60 means you can only score a free throw to win it)

I don’t watch much basketball anymore; it’s boring to me and it’s not nearly as team oriented as it once was. That said, I do think it would be more fun if they had an ability to inject more necessity of defense and varying styles on offense into the game. 

jmblue

May 20th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^

The narrower key idea and widening the court are interesting.  I loved Beilein's philosophy but now that basically everyone is doing it, it's not quite as cool.  One skill (3-point shooting) is becoming too important.  I'd like to see the ratio of 2-pointers to 3s be about 2:1.

As for the question about Howard having more turnover than Beilein . . . we should count just how many guys actually played four seasons for Beilein.  Turnover was a constant.  Senior Night would often honor one player.