The Essentials 

THE US 

Michigan has arrived in the B1G Tournament Championship Game, just like we always thought. Despite a bumpy end to the regular season that cost the Wolverines the regular season title, they have bounced back and played their way to within a game of the tournament title. Michigan blasted MSU in a two-game sweep in the quarterfinals, then defeated Notre Dame in a tight and physical semifinal matchup at Yost. Michigan is 2nd in PairWise and can jump into the pole position (thus locking up the 1st overall seed for the NCAA Tournament) with a win in this game. 

Michigan's points and goals leader is Matty Beniers, who has 19 and 40, respectively. Right behind him in the goals column are Brendan Brisson and Luke Hughes. I presume that Mel Pearson will stick with the same lines as last weekend, which had Beniers centering Brisson and Kent Johnson as the top line. Thomas Bordeleau has typically been centering Michael Pastujov and Mark Estapa the last few weeks, while the third line has been set for a couple months, with Dylan Duke, Johnny Beecher, and Mackie Samoskevich on it. After such a complete performance last weekend, I think Mel ought to keep the line configurations consistent. 

THE THEM

I was one of the many people who left Minnesota for dead back in late January. The Gophers lost starting goalie (and old friend) Jack LaFontaine to the NHL in a surprising mid-season move, and were entrusting their crease to unproven backup Justen Close. Two weeks into the Close era the team was 2-2, with Close posting an .882 SV% in those games, in line with his performances when he had played previously. He looked shaky and the goaltending fundamentals were not terribly sharp when I watched him play against Michigan. Combined with Minnesota about to lose its Olympians for three weeks, I thought they were cooked. I was wrong. 

Since we last saw Minnesota, the Gophers are 10-0-1, ripping off win after win and in the process locking up the regular season conference title and thus the top seed in this event. Close (who I will discuss later in more detail) caught fire and the team rose to a new level. The big story of this winning streak is how stingy Minnesota has been defensively, which is partially goaltending, but also because they are a very good defensive team. In those eleven games since Michigan last saw Minnesota, the Gophers have surrendered >2 goals in regulation once. 

[Madeline Hinkley]

Minnesota has a good balance of organic program guys and also plenty of NHL picks. They don't have Michigan's level of high end gems, but they are still one of college hockey's two or three most talented teams when it comes to future pros. Their top player is not a drafted guy, but he will be in an NHL organization very soon: C Ben Meyers. Meyers has posted 16 goals and 36 points in 30 games, playing very well at both ends of the ice, plus being a faceoff savant. He will be one of the top two or three undrafted free agents once the NCAA season ends. Other forwards to know are a pair of veterans, Sammy Walker and Bryce Brodzinski, who should be inducted into the JT Barrett/Aaron Craft/Jordan Bohannon Hall of Feels Like They've Been There Forever. A couple freshmen NHL prospects round out the forwards, Matthew Knies (2nd rounder, TOR), who is a bona fide stud and netfront menace, as well as sniper Chaz Lucius (1st rounder, WPG), who has had a slow freshman year but possesses immense talent. 

The Gophers pride themselves on their NHL-laden defense corps. Brock Faber (2nd rounder, LAK) is probably the #1 D from a defensive perspective, but there are plenty of more names. Jackson LaCombe (2nd rounder, ANA) is the highest scoring defenseman, and Ryan Johnson (1st rounder, BUF) isn't a slouch either. Minnesota is a team with impact players up and down the lineup and they are meticulously coached by Bob Motzko. Fundamentally sound, fast, skilled, and competitive. The Gophers have a lot to play for when it comes to the NCAA Tournament too, with the ability to nail down a #1 seed for the second straight year if they beat Michigan. Otherwise they're left hoping that WMU and North Dakota do poorly in the NCHC Tournament. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]

SPECIAL TEAMS

Michigan rides into this weekend with strong special teams, a power play firing at 25.5% (7th in the NCAA), and a penalty kill executing at 83.9% (15th). The Wolverines actually got a short-handed goal against Minnesota this season, doing so back in December when Mike Pastujov picked up a shorty. Michigan hasn't scored a PPG against the Gophers this year though, in part because Minnesota has a tremendous PK, ranking 10th at 85.9%. The Gopher PP hasn't been as good as you'd expect this year, clicking at 18.8% (32nd), but there's the talent to get you for sure.  

[James Coller]

GOALIE(S)

This is the marquee matchup to watch. Michigan Hockey stats guy Drew Van Drese noted on Twitter this week that Michigan and Minnesota are two of the best defensive teams in the country since the start of the new year: 

Second Half Scoring Defense Leaders in #CollegeHockey (h/t @benholdenpxp)

1) Quinnipiac: .81 goals/gm
2) MN State: 1.28 goals/gm
3) Michigan & Minnesota: 1.76 goals/gm@B1GHockey’s championship duo have each allowed an identical 30 goals in 17 games since the New Year. #GoBlue

— Drew (@DrewVanDrese) March 16, 2022

It's often hard to tell whether scoring defense is more the result of goaltending or team defense, and it's the certainly the product of both to some extent, but the save percentages of these two goalies speak for themselves. Since the start of 2022, Erik Portillo is boasting a .944, while Close has a .933 on the year (even higher if you look at just the last eleven games). Two goalies who are not giving up many goals at all. Interestingly, the worst performance of the year for both guys came against the other team in this matchup, with Portillo allowing five goals in 40 minutes before being pulled against Minnesota in December, while Close allowed four on only nineteen shots the last time these two teams played in January. 

Besides their dominance, their aren't major similarities between Close and Portillo. The Swedish Wolverines is a monstrous human, 6'6", 225 lbs., a modern jumbo goalie who can take up nearly the entire net when he goes into the butterfly. Close, on the other hand, is a 1980s goalie-sized person, 5'10", 175 lbs. Michigan was aiming high when they saw Close the first time, and I think that'll be the plan again, since there is room over the shoulder and below the bar when Close is in the butterfly. 

[James Coller]

KEYS

Do not take a five minute major. This point is going to be on every hockey preview I do the rest of the way, but it's pretty damn crucial. Michigan has taken more five minute majors than nearly every other team in college hockey, a problem that has been litigated many times on this site. Some of it is questionable officiating, but many times it is the result of very stupid decision-making by Michigan's players. Michigan cost themselves two points against Minnesota back in January when Jacob Truscott cross-checked a player in the back for no real reason and sent him into the boards, handing Minnesota a five minute PP, which they scored on in OT to end it. Don't do that! The number one way this season comes up short is if Michigan takes another stupid major and the opposition scores once or twice on it. Don't do it! 

Limit the rushes against. Michigan has struggled at times this year giving up rush chances against. That's been largely cleaned up since the start of 2022, but it's another area Minnesota could exploit. They've got the offensive talent to finish off any Grade A chances they get, so Michigan needs to focus on giving up as few of those as possible. 

Be motivated. The Maize & Blue came out with their hair on fire against Notre Dame, angry about the way the regular season had gone against the Irish. Playing with purpose, they totally overwhelmed a very good ND team en route to a decisive victory. If Michigan comes out with that same energy level and fire against Minnesota, they should win this game. 

PREDICTIONS

are stupid (for single hockey games)