Not long after Quinnipiac shocked the college hockey world with their stunning overtime win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Tampa, the Michigan Wolverines received some good news when Tyler Duke, Dylan's brother, entered the Transfer Portal after his freshman season at Ohio State. It came to no surprise to anyone to see Tyler commit to patrol the blueline for the Maize & Blue starting this fall, although I for one was puzzled by him going to OSU in the first place. It always seemed logical that after he followed his brother's footsteps through the NTDP program, he would follow him to Ann Arbor.

Although not big is stature, Duke is built like the proverbial fireplug and doesn't shy away from physical play at all. In fact, he looks like a hockey playing version of Michigan running back Blake Corum and brings the same competitive mentality to the rink. He's an excellent skater with a surprising extra gear of speed when needed. Duke has strong stick skills and moves the puck quickly and efficiently out of the zone and in transition. He has great read and react skills in the offensive zone and does a great job on the blue line to create a passing lane for his teammates.

Duke went undrafted in the NHL, though he did attend the Tampa Bay Lightning's Development Camp (Dylan was drafted by the that team) early in July and also participated in the recent World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, playing with and against some of the best young talent from the US, Sweden and Finland trying to vie for a position on the US U-20 that will be competing in Sweden after Christmas.

[Rena Laverty/USNTDP]

Overview of Tyler Duke

Before we look at where we think Tyler Duke will be slotted into Michigan's defense for this upcoming season, let's take a look at his body of work during his freshman year at Ohio State. Like most first year defensemen in the NCAA, he was given limited minutes in the first few games of the season and was slotted onto the third pair. Once he gained the confidence of the coaching staff, he was moved up to the second pair and teamed with senior Scooter Brickey for the remainder of the season. Ohio State had one of the best defenses in the NCAA last year, so earning a second pairing position was a big accomplishment for Duke. From an NCAA perspective OSU only allowed 2.5 Goals Against per game (14th), gave up 28.2 Shots per Game (21st in the NCAA and 1st in the Big 10) and had an 88.7% Penalty Kill efficiency (1st).

From an individual statistics perspective, Tyler Duke's four goals tied him for 2nd most on the defense with Mason Lohrei, trailing leader Cole McWard who had nine. Duke finished with 12 points, which was two behind his defense partner Brickey and nine and twenty points behind top pairing members McWard and Lohrei, respectively. One significant statistic that pops out is that of Duke's four goals, three of them were game winners, which put him in a tie for the team lead with Tate Singleton and Patrick Guzzo. Scoring goals is great but scoring clutch goals, especially from a defenseman, is a key to ultimate success.

Looking into my crystal ball I fully anticipate Tyler Duke being a Wolverine for the rest of his NCAA career, which should be for at least the next 3 years. I also anticipate him coming in and competing with junior Ethan Edwards to be on the second defensive pairing alongside fellow sophomore Seamus Casey (I expect senior Jacob Truscott and grad student Marshall Warren to be the top pairing). Duke pairing with Casey would actually reunite the two former NTDP teammates who played alongside each other during their U-17 and U-18 years and even as recently as the World Junior Showcase, where they were paired together for team USA Blue in the first game of the tournament. Duke and Casey read off of each other extremely well and their complimentary styles of play will make them a top unit for at least the next year.

[AFTER THE JUMP: what he brings to the Michigan defense]

[Bill Rapai]

Ice Time

To get a better look at how Tyler Duke compares with Seamus Casey and Ethan Edwards, we'll look deeper into the numbers of all three from last season. These statistics are from Hudl Instat and to get a more balanced look, they are all based on Average per 60 minutes.

The first comparison we'll look at is ice time per 60 minutes. All 3 players averaged almost identical times, with Duke and Edwards averaging 19:33 per 60 minutes and Casey averaging 19:35. When it came to powerplay time, Casey led in that category with an average per 60 minutes of 2:42, Tyler Duke logging 1:32, and Ethan Edwards playing 1:09. It's worth noting in this category that Casey's time may be slightly more than it would have been had Jacob Truscott had not missed a significant number of games at the end of the season. On the penalty kill, Edwards led the way in this category as he averaged 2:34 per 60 minutes, Duke playing 2:19, and Casey getting 0:46. Having the puck on your stick is an important statistic and again, puck control time is almost identical between the three. Casey had the puck on his stick for 1:34 compared to 1:24 for Duke and Edwards who came in at 1:19.

The final two comparisons we'll look at involve time in the offensive zone and time in the defensive zone. These numbers should be viewed only as a guideline, since your teammates and the opposition have a significant impact on them, but they are worth considering. In the offensive zone, Seamus Casey led the way with a 29:51 average per 60 minutes, Duke logging 27:14, and Edwards getting 25:53. It's worth noting that Casey's 29:51 is higher than both offensive juggernauts Luke Hughes from Michigan (who logged 27:56) and Mason Lohrei (who played 29:08 in the offensive zone) for the Buckeyes. In the defensive zone, it was Tyler Duke who had the highest average TOI per 60 minutes with 24:20. Edwards was next at 24:06 and Casey again posted the best time of defensemen from either team with only 20:26 playing in the defensive zone.

Time Comparisons - Average per 60 minutes

[Bill Rapai]

Defensive Microstats

Strong play without the puck keeps the opposition from scoring goals and also leads to offensive transition play, which can create scoring opportunities. We're going to look at a number of categories that paint a picture of a defenseman's abilities to regain possession of the puck and move it up ice when possession is regained. Let’s start with puck battle success, a stat I personally believe to be about 80% of a game given how much of the game for a defenseman is played outside the dots and behind the nets. Winning a puck battle takes a combination of strength, body position and hand and feet quickness.

Tyler Duke was strong in puck battles for Ohio State last season, engaging in an average of 27.9 per 60 minutes and winning 17.1, which translates to a puck battle winning percentage of 61.4%. That clip was better than either Seamus Casey or Ethan Edwards of Michigan last year. Casey was involved in 30.3 per 60 minutes, winning 16.9 for a success rate of 55.7%. Ethan Edwards averaged 27.8 per 60 minutes and won 14.7 for a puck battle winning percentage of 52.8%.

Physical contact is still an important element of the game for defensemen and Ethan Edwards led the way among this trio with 3.75 hits per 60-minute average, though sometimes that got him into trouble with five-minute penalties. In contrast, Duke averaged only 1.86 hits per 60 and Casey threw only 1.41. Also physical is shot blocking, another essential role for defensemen, a category that Ethan Edwards again was the standout in. He averaged 4.18 shot blocks per 60 minutes, followed by Duke with 2.99 and Casey with 1.9.

When regaining control of the puck, it's paramount to exit the zone efficiently. A hard pass up to a forward is preferred, skating it out is the next best way, and dumping it out either off the glass or by a high flip should be a last resort. When we look at breakouts, Tyler Duke averaged 16.8 per 60 minutes with OSU last season, 11.0 being via a pass, 5.41 by skating the puck out, and 0.4 by dumping the puck out. Casey was a bit more prolific, averaging 17.9 breakouts per 60 minutes with 11.1 being via a pass (similar to Duke), 6.79 skating the puck out (noticeably higher than Duke) and almost never dumping the puck out (doing it just 0.00001 times per 60). Edwards was in the rear on breakouts, 15.5 per 60 in total with 8.95 being via a pass (far fewer than Duke), 6.48 by skating the puck out (more than Duke) and a paltry 0.09 by dumping the puck out. The miniscule rates of dumping the puck out attained by both Casey and Edwards are the result of their exceptional skating abilities and the forwards who get open to receive passes, within Michigan’s system. Duke’s numbers were strong in these categories as well along with the rest of the defensemen on both teams and was a reflection on the skill level both teams displayed throughout the season.

Regaining Possession and Moving the Puck - Average per 60 minutes

[Maize & Blue Review]

Offensive Microstats

Offensive Zone entries, especially by defenseman, are crucial for a team to generate goal scoring opportunities. Once offensive zone possession has been established, having defensemen contribute to the offense is a major element to winning games. With that in mind, let’s look at how Tyler Duke, Seamus Casey and Ethan Edwards fared during last season in these categories. Tyler Duke averaged 12 offensive zone entries on average per 60 minutes, 4.69 being via passing, 5.82 by skating the puck into the zone, and 1.53 being by a dump-in. Casey was more prolific at generating entries with an average of 15.8, 6.46 being by the pass, 8.53 by carrying the puck in, and 0.83 by dumping the puck in. Edwards comes in at the rear, 9.72 entries average per 60 minutes, with 3.92 being by the pass, 5.03 by carrying the puck in and 0.77 were dump ins. So, Duke rates in the middle of Casey and Edwards in terms of a volume of entries, more willing to dump it in and generally less prolific in skating the puck in relative to Casey. However, with regards to these numbers, it's important to consider that Michigan was one of the most offensively talented teams in the NCAA last season, scoring 0.89 more goals per game than Ohio State.

Just as shot blocking is important for defensemen in the defensive zone, getting shots through from the point has become a crucial skill for defensemen that all coaches stress to their teams. In the arena of shooting, Tyler Duke averaged 11 shots per 60 minutes, with 4.2 making it on goal and 4.04 being blocked along the way. His total volume of shots was similar to Edwards, who fired 10.9 shots at the net, though Edwards was better at getting them trough, 5.03 making it on goal and only 2.64 being blocked. Casey was a very shoot-happy defender by comparison, taking an astonishing 17.3 shots per 60 (the highest for blueliners for both Michigan and Ohio State) and he was also quite effective at getting them through, 9.52 making it to the net and 3.81 getting blocked. This suggests that Duke may have a bit of work to do to get his shots through defenders and on the target in the offensive zone.

To finish off this section on comparative statistics, one of the simplest statistics to me and yet more important ones than plus/minus, is the average per 60 minutes of team goals scored when on ice and opponents goals scored when on ice. Unlike plus/minus, which combines this number, this gives a raw look at scoring when a particular player is on the ice. Based on the average per 60 minutes, Tyler Duke is on the ice for 3.07 goals for and 2.5 goals against. Casey was on the ice for a whopping 4.55 goals for and 2.24 goals against (wowza!) and Edwards was on the ice for 3.32 goals for and 3.66 goals against (again special teams usage plays a role here). While Duke’s numbers do not match Casey’s, it is a good indicator for him to be winning his minutes as a whole, with OSU outscoring its opposition when Tyler Duke was on the ice for the Bucks last season.

Offensive Zone Entries, Shots and Team Goals For & Against - Average per 60 minutes

[Rena Laverty/USNTDP]

Advanced Analytics

In our final look at comparative statistics, we'll take a gander at some advanced metrics as they relate to Duke, Casey, and Edwards. We're going to look at the Corsi for %, Fenwick for %, and the xG (Expected goals), particularly Team xG when on the ice and Opponent xG when on the ice. Tyler Duke did very well in all these metrics, posting a 63.2% Corsi For and a 62.9% Fenwick For. His individual xG was 0.24 and his Team xG when he on the ice was 2.91, compared to the Opponent xG when he was on the ice of 2.44 (xG% of 54.4%). By comparison, Seamus Casey had a 59.1% Corsi For and a 59.5% Fenwick For. His individual xG was 0.18 and his Team xG when on the ice was 4.06 and the Opponent xG when on the ice was 2.69 (xG% of 60.1%). Ethan Edwards had a 55% Corsi For and a 56.4% Fenwick For, lower than Casey but still solid. His individual xG was 0.06, lower than both Duke or Casey and his Team xG when on the ice was 2.94 and the Opponent xG when on the ice was 3.59 (xG% of 45.0%, though little power play time plays a role in these stats for Edwards).

Advanced Metrics - Average per 60 minutes

[Steve Duke via The Lantern]

Final Word

As I alluded to in the opening paragraph, I've seen Tyler Duke play on numerous occasions over the past 3 seasons with the NTDP U-17's, U-18's and last year with Ohio State. First, I'm still surprised that he wasn't selected in either of the two NHL Entry Drafts he's been eligible for. Whether he didn't interview well, or teams were skeptical of his size, it's hard to say. One thing that can't be denied though is his consistent development over the past 3 years. He makes smart, split-second decisions on a consistent basis on the ice, is generally regarded by opponents as a pain-in-the-ass to play against and plays an up-tempo game that will play into what Coach Naurato is continuing to develop.

For the team, Tyler Duke should slot in comfortably into the lineup, ideally on the second pair but perhaps on third pair. He has the capability to play on both special teams units and as his microstat profile shows, while he may not be as impactful as Seamus Casey, his numbers compare favorably to Ethan Edwards and the total profile indicates a legitimate B1G defenseman who will help Michigan. Most importantly though, and if you have an older successful sibling, you will understand this, Tyler Duke is taking the step out from his brother's shadow and moving beside him as an integral piece of the Michigan hockey program.