Quick Event Note: As we've been teasing since last week, Dr. Sap and I will be joined by Rod Payne and Jarrett Irons this Saturday to watch the Biakabutuka game on Twitch. Set your calendars for Saturday April 25, 1:00 PM EDT.

Michigan last Friday picked up their third defensive commitment for the 2021 class, their ninth overall, their second from Don Brown's home state of Massachusetts, their second defensive end-like object, and their third East Coast player with a national ranking sure to get that one guy who does nothing but complain about the rankings of Michigan recruits to create two more accounts.

Those more familiar with Don Brown's history of defensive line recruiting are squinting at the video to see if they can tell what the guy who unearthed Kwity Paye, Harold Landry, Wyatt Ray, Ray Smith, and Zach Allen saw. Brown might not be the only one who saw it; Guy was a BC commit until Pitt and then Michigan offered this winter, and a few other P5 schools were getting involved recently.

There's also reason to believe Guy is a true gem: being from Massachusetts makes it hard enough to get scouted, but Guy has only been playing football since he got to high school, and his school, though one of the best in the commonwealth, doesn't even play in its top division. 

GURU RATINGS

Rivals	ESPN	247	247 Comp
3*, 5.5, NR SDE, #8 MA, NR Ovr	3*, No rating Not ranked	3*, 87, #31 WDE, #5 MA, NR Ovr	3*, 0.8516, #44 WDE, #5 MA, #759 Ovr

This is the generic three-star range reserved for players you've heard of but haven't been out to see. It's also the Michigan State recruiting range, which is what's getting constantly-making-accounts guy so bent out of shape. 24/7 is the relative high one based on their Massachusetts rankings. An 87 is more like a 5.6 on Rivals, for what it's worth. ESPN right now is saying "three-star." Welcome to Massachusetts.

All three sites list him at 240. That puts him close to Kwity Paye, Taylor Upshaw, and Gabe Newburg on my comps sheet of 3-star SDE types that Don Brown's been populating heavily of late:

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

SCOUTING

Brian Dohn posted a writeup on 24/7 after Guy's commitment that sounded outright positive:

He is athletic and he plays fast. He is disruptive at the point of attack and he is menace in the backfield. He has very good body control and he shows an ability to change direction. He chases plays down from behind and he tackles well in space.

Guy is subtle with his technique. He has a swim move, and shows he can dip his shoulder and explode around the edge. He plays with suddenness and he is physical. He rarely loses the leverage battle.

Another thing I really like about Guy is his ability to go inside from the edge. Rather than relying so heavily on speed, he varies his attack and sometimes will get inside the offensive tackle. He always seems balanced.

Dohn goes on to note Guy needs to work on his hands, that "bend at the knees, his flexibility and explosion," could make him a dominant offensive lineman, and "he could be the steal of Michigan's class." Versatility was a theme:

Guy brings position versatility to Michigan. He can play defensive end, and he has the frame to add weight and move inside and play defensive tackle for the Wolverines, and he plans to compete for immediate playing time.

The immediate playing time part of that appears a weird interpretation of some standard "you're going to be in a spot to compete from Day 1" coachspeak. Guy's coach also described a raw prospect who's new to the game with ability to spare.

Mansfield coach Mike Redding saw Guy, who has played organized football for only three years, transform into a powerful force that anchored the Hornets’ stout defense in its run to a Division 2 Super Bowl title this past season.

“This year, he just came back bigger, stronger and became a dominating player and that’s when he got on a lot of people’s radar,” Redding said. “I think they’re just going to get a big, strong kid that can run around and make plays wherever they want to play him.”

Guy told the same reporter he was planning on attending a lot of camps this summer; that was probably his shot to move up the rankings. Redding also emphasized projection when he got a call from the guy at SI:

“There is a lot of upside,” Redding said. “As good as he is, he is going to get better in technique. He is going to get bigger. He is going to get stronger. He is going to get thicker, so whatever you see now, I think you’re going to see a much higher level player given two or three years in a good college program with weight lifting and coaching. I think he is a diamond in the rough. There is a lot of upside there.”

Rivals's E.J. Holland was also looking forward to evaluating Guy in a camp setting. Holland reported Michigan "valued a lot more than the pundits in charge of the rankings":

Michigan loves big-bodied, athletic defensive ends that can play multiple positions along the defensive line. Guy may end up being a three-technique when it's all said and done, and Brown has talked to him about that. It all depends on how he develops once he arrives in Ann Arbor. For now, Guy is a bit of a project, but he has the frame and tools to grow into a contributor.

On the other end of the spectrum is Touch the Banner, who went all the way to "reminds me of this bad Rich Rod recruit":

I have gone on the record previously with my hesitance about Guy. First of all, 247 Sports lists him as a weakside end, and I disagree with that wholeheartedly. I feel strongly that he will not be an open-side end at any point during his career. So if you’re looking for a guy to get after the passer and bend off the edge, you’re looking in the wrong place.

Guy does not bend well, period, and he is very stiff. He can move explosively in a straight line, but he plays high, which limits his lateral agility. He looks like a strongside end with a pretty high probability of moving inside to defensive tackle eventually.

I am reminded of former Michigan signee Anthony Lalota from Princeton (NJ) The Hun School, who did nothing at Michigan before transferring to Rutgers and fizzling out. Guy, like Lalota, plays offensive tackle in addition to defensive end. I do see some potential for Guy as a poor man’s Chris Wormley.

Joining him in the downer cam is Maize & Brew's Jonathan Simmons, who offered a very HR "I really like your swim move but…" before getting to the concerns we've been having with the lack of hand usage:

He uses a swim move in pass rush effectively, using it often to get by the left tackle in the King Philip game. This move combined with his speed off the line got him by the line in a flash. It looks like he may only be comfortable using his left arm to swim, as he never used the move when lined up on the left side of the defensive line. …

It often looks like Guy doesn’t have a plan of attack when rushing the passer, which leads him to improvise and end up wasting time with the tackle instead of getting to the quarterback.

Simmons was also not happy with Guy's effort:

He does not have a great motor at all, too often standing up and watching plays or lightly jogging when pursuing the quarterback. He had several opportunities to put more pressure on the quarterback or potentially get a deflection or sack, but instead save his energy for later.

Because somebody in the comments is listening, I did check in with Extremely Specific Massachusetts Football Subscription Site, Mass Varsity, but I couldn't find anything on there for Guy except he was named 2nd team all-state for OL/DL (they combine the two into just five spots). Their normally paywalled content is free during coronavirus fyi if you've really got a hankerin' for news from Michigan East (please save me I write about Michigan recruiting and am out of free Boston Herald articles for the month).

In Things You Can Use to Sell This to Harbaugh, Guy is also a fringe basketball prospect:

Tj Guy of Mansfield High School is averaging 13.6 points per game this season. TJ is as skilled a big man as they come at 6'5 being able to score from inside or outside. We are excited to have TJ back this Spring! #MPCFamily @guyjr11 @ZeroGravityXL @MansfieldboysBB pic.twitter.com/LFDXyiGZ7V

— MPC Boys Basketball (@MPCBoysBB) February 17, 2020

cc Juwan.

OFFERS

Guy committed to Boston College in December shortly after getting an offer from Pitt. He decommitted from Boston College in February, shortly after the offer from Michigan. Nebraska, and Virginia scholarship offers came through a few weeks ago. He had trips to Michigan, Nebraska and Kentucky planned before the Coronavirus pandemic. Syracuse was involved early and UConn had a well, you tried offer late. Notre Dame was on his visit schedule earlier.

HIGH SCHOOL

Mansfield is between Boston and Providence, RI, the next highway exit south of where the Patriots play (Foxborough is Mansfield's primary rival). The high school is in the second tier (helpfully, Division II) of Massachusetts high school football, which means the scouting here is extra hard to come by, and the tape is against extra Massachusettsie opposition. They won their state championship last year, holding the favorites to just 19 yards (on 19 plays) in the first half of their semi-final game. Coach Mike Redding has been there for decades, winning 8 state titles and 19 league championships, 12 of them in this century. The last Power 5 player to come out of the school was Boston College DE Corey Eason, a 4-star ranked one spot below Ryan Van Bergen in 2007.

STATS

MaxPreps reports 30 tackles and 7 for loss last year.

FAKE 40 TIME

His Hudl page lists a 40-yard-dash of 4.7, and a 5.1 shuttle. They also have him 6'4/245. Since he wasn't going to hit camps until this summer those are probably posted from his high school. The full chart:

Height & Weight: 6'4" 245lbs
40 Yard Dash: 4.7
Shuttle: 5.1
Vertical: 29
Bench: 265
185 Bench (Reps): 15
Squat(LBS): 375
Deadlift(LBS): 425
Clean(LBS): 250

At least they didn't say 4.5 but this earns Four FAKES out of five on our scale that should never go below three.

VIDEO

Junior mid-season highlights:

A couple more games (including Foxborough) from later in the season as well as some sophomore highlights and other single-game reels can be found on his Hudl page.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

When it comes to three-stars, the best thing you can hear is they're a perfect player who just happens to lack some attribute that doesn't matter as much in college. But the next-best profile is "this guy is an amazing athlete who's too sushi raw and playing in obscurity for us to project what he'll be after 30 pounds and a few years of coaching." That was the Kwity Paye profile until Kwity found one sympathetic ranker after a camp to bump him into 3.5* range. Guy isn't a refugee, but he checks the academics boxes and like Paye comes with a frame that could get into DT land in college. Paye however went to camps and flashed some bend; that's hard to see on film with Guy, especially because he can be productive at his level just by arm-barring tackles out of his way.

One big difference is the depth chart after Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich when Kwity arrived was the two lake DJ Durkin pickups (Rueben Jones and Shelton Johnson), Ron Johnson, and injured Corey Malone-Hatcher and Luigi Vilain. Since then Don Brown's been taking all sorts of guys who straddle the SDE spectrum. After the returning starters Michigan has 2018s Taylor Upshaw and Julius Welschof, 2019s David Ojabo, Michael Morris, and Gabe Newburg, 2020 four-star Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell as well as 3-stars Aaron Lewis, and Kris Jenkins, Vilain, who could have sophomore eligibility if you consider he's a lock for a 6th year, and classmate Dom Giudice.

If they were all competing to play anchor in a 4-2-5 that would be some ludicrous competition indeed. In reality Michigan is taking all of these guys to fill three or four starting positions on the defensive line, and figuring out where each goes as they grow. That means a redshirt and a probably a few years of low-hanging name jokes while everybody gets sorted out.

While 3-tech was discussed, Guy's length and straight-line speed seem like they would best fit best at Anchor, or if Michigan's gone to three-man base fronts by then one of the interchangeable DE positions Aidan and Kwity have been playing. He's more of a B gap guy than a speed rusher, however once his game is refined he might prove above average in that regard. The motor thing doesn't move the needle for me; Chris Wormley was criticized for his motor, QED. In fact Wormley is a good comp, especially if Guy's pushing 285 by the time he's on the field.

With so many other players so much further along I wouldn't expect to hear anything concrete until at least 2022, maybe spring 2023. If Guy pulls a Kwity and emerges from that melee in 2021, nobody's allowed to complain about Don Brown recruiting 3-stars again.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

You're going to hear us talk about how Clemson combines three-stars they develop themselves with top talent a lot in the next few off-seasons. It would be nice to add one of those top talents at WDE to pair with their future projects, and Michigan has more than a few irons in the fire. They're also probably not done with New England this cycle. Also you'll get a Jimmystats from me this week on all of these Don Brown 3-stars.