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Future Hoops Originals: Moussa Diabate, Offense Comment Count

Matt EM December 28th, 2020 at 11:37 AM

I made several trips over the last two months to get a detailed look at 2021 signee Moussa Diabate. Suiting up for IMG Academy (FL) at the Border League in late October and a one-off versus Calvary Christian (FL) last weekend. This was a great opportunity to see how Diabate stacked up versus some of the best high school competition in the country.

At the Border League event in late October, IMG squared off against Bishop Gorman (NV) and Sunnyslope (AZ).  Bishop Gorman featured a pair of top 50 guards in UCLA signee Will McClendon and UNLV signee Zaon Collins along with 3-star junior wing AJ Storr and sophomore big Osiris Grady (holds offer from Ole Miss). The focal points for Sunnyslope were Pepperdine signee Carson Basham and low D1 guard Oakland Fort. 

Last weekend's matchup against Calvary Christian was a thriller. CC came in as one of the most talented teams in Florida with 2022 4-star offer Gregg Glenn, 4-star junior big Taylor Hendricks (father is former Michigan safety Tommy Hendricks!), low D1 2022 guard Tyler Hendricks and 5-star sophomore guard Marvel Allen. 

Last week we examined Moussa on defense here. Highly recommended. 

Face-Up Game

Given his elite athleticism, it's no surprise that facing up from the perimeter is Diabate's biggest positional advantage at this stage in his development. The first possession in the clip above provides a great visual of Moussa's first step acceleration. He rips through and blows by an opposing big in a straight line, then proceeds to throw down an emphatic dunk over a help defender. 

The possession starting at the :13 second mark above is ridiculous from a 6'10 HS senior. Diabate gives his primary defender a ball-fake left to get him off-balance, leaves him in the dust and drives right, before shedding two help-defenders with a euro-step and drawing a foul. In the last 5 years I don't know that I've seen 10 bigs at the HS level with this combination of quick-twitch acceleration, ball skills, body control and fluidity. Absolutely elite stuff that is tantalizing for me as an evaluator. The 99th percentile athlete grade very much plays out on the offensive end as well. 

The very next possession in the clip reinforces just how advanced Moussa's ball-skills and spatial awareness are considering his size and position. He attacks a closeout and blows-by junior 3-star wing AJ Storr (offers from Illinois, Ole Miss and Virginia Tech) before dropping a dumpoff pass in a very tight space for an easy layup. A 6'10 player at any level shouldn't be able to do that. 

Finally, let's take a look at the final possession of the clip above. Diabate strings together a combination of ball-fakes/footwork/change of speed that would make Kobe Bryant proud. He starts off with a shot fake, then jabs right, hits Pepperdine signee Carson Basham with a crossover before a hesitation dribble gives him space for a running sky-hook with the left hand. That is video game level skill from a 6'10 kid. 

There is no question Moussa is going to have a huge advantage on the perimeter considering the B10 is experiencing a shift back toward more traditional bigs. Diabate is going to get multiple opportunities per game to exploit this advantage, particularly in ballscreen action when he pops out (as opposed to rolling to the rim) and in Horns action from the elbow. There is simply no big currently playing in the B10 with the requisite size/length/agility to defend Moussa's combination of ball-skills and athleticism on the perimeter.

[Hit THE JUMP for the full evaluation]

Passing/Playmaking

The most undervalued facet of Diabate's game is his vision. His versatility a passer on the move and from stationary positions was the most pleasant surprise in my evaluation.

We won't go into detail on the first possession in the clip above since it was addressed above. Instead, let's take a thorough look at how his passing ability projects at Michigan with certain line-up combinations. In particular, with one Hunter Dickinson.

I've received a ton of questions as to how a potential Diabate/Dickinson frontcourt pairing would work offensively. The two possessions starting at the :28 second mark above provide a glimpse into the future. The first is high-low action from the wing where Diabate places the pass to the right of a defender that is playing 3/4 post-defense to prevent a catch in the middle of the paint. The pass placement is such that only his teammate can catch it, while leading him just enough so that he can turn, put the defender on his hip and convert an easy layup. Much of the same on the second possession, with this delivery coming from the corner rather than the wing. The common theme with both is that Moussa has good spatial awareness, great execution in terms of pass placement and soft touch.

For a Michigan team that runs Horns action frequently under Juwan Howard, this is a great development for the projected Diabate/Dickinson frontcourt. Dickinson thrives as post-scorer (98th percentile per Synergy), and having Moussa as an entry passer alleviates some of the potential spacing concerns. I probably don't need to tell you this combination will most certainly be formidable defensively. 

I also really liked what I saw from Diabate as a passer on the move. The three possessions starting at the :45 second mark above were impressive and are further evidence of his advanced spatial awareness for a big.

All three are identical in that they feature Moussa getting the ball in stride, taking a dribble or two before the help defender commits to cutting off his driving lane and Diabate kicking out to an open shooter in the corner. He has the body control to avoid the charge, the spatial awareness to see the open man in the corner and the skill to execute good passes. 

This bodes really well for Moussa's potential as a passer in situations where he is the short roll-man in pick-and-roll action in the mold of Bam Adebayo. These scenarios often unfold in the same manner as the three aforementioned possessions. Opposing defenses have a helpside defender tag the roller right around the FT line in an attempt to perhaps draw a charge and/or force the big to make a decision/be a playmaker. If the short roller is an adequate playmaker, the defense is forced to give up an open 3, a baseline cutter or the defense is in full scramble mode. 

Finishing

Moussa is an elite leaper that possesses quick twitch explosion off 1 or 2 legs. Because of that ability, he's a very good finisher in confined spaces or the open court. Really not a ton of analysis here, he's a better athlete than just about any HS prospect in the country at his position. He can simply elevate over defenders with his combination of leaping, length and body control. 

What really pops out though, is that Diabate attacks the rim with bad intentions. He's looking to dunk more often than not, regardless of whether a defender is in the vicinity. His elevation and body control is such that contact isn't going to deter him at all. When he does opt to go with the finesse option, he has outstanding body control and contorts his body in such a way that he ends up with clean layup attempts at the rim.

Another small evaluation point is Moussa's ability to finish with the off-hand. He has outstanding touch with his left-hand on the move and gets full extension with his left arm to convert over length. 

In sum, Diabate's mindset of going over and through defenders (rather than around) at the rim likely translates to a nice volume of +1s and free throw attempts in half-court situations. In transition he may very well be the most lethal finisher at his position in the B10 as a freshman, as you simply don't find bigs with his level of straight line speed and vertical explosion off 1 or 2 legs. Moussa has potential to be the best finisher at Michigan over the last 20 years with just minor gains in Camp Sanderson. 

Perimeter Shooting

This part of Diabate's game is coming on rapidly. Moussa gets good elevation on his jumper, solid balance, the elbow is tucked in, great rotation on the ball and minimal extra motion. The only real blemish on the mechanics is consistency in the release point. 

At times, he can extend his arms in a bit of an outward motion (release point closer to the front of his face rather than above the head). This issue is really visible at the :29 mark of the clip above. When this occurs, the shot is going to be flat on most occasions. Contrast that with the first two shots in the clip above and you can certainly make the distinction. 

Diabate's shots are almost all on-line. The question is simply whether there is enough arch to give the shot a chance to go in. This is preferable in relation to other mechanical issues. It's generally easier to fix a release point as opposed to extra motion issues (think swing shots such as Zak Irvin and Lonzo Ball), which are extremely difficult to fix during one season in college. 

Moussa definitely has some potential as a pick-and-pop option in college. His mechanics are very close to being ideal for a big and he's already flashing ability to hit shots in that exact action  with IMG. I think Juwan Howard is going to give him some freedom in that regard considering what we've seen from Hunter Dickinson and Terrance Williams experimenting with the same. If he can shoot the ball at a 30-33% clip from distance he is going to absolutely feast on opposing defenses in tandem with his ball-skills and ability to attack closeouts. 

Offensive Rebounding

Diabate is an elite offensive rebounder, period. While rebounding is partially technique based (inside position is optimal and learning the finer points of holding with one-arm and rebounding with the other), to a large degree it comes down to effort level assuming one has adequate size/length/elevation. In addition to the quick twitch athleticism and length, his motor operates at a level the opposition simply fails to reach. 

Looking at the first two possessions clipped above really puts this in perspective. Moussa's second jump is lightning quick and he just refuses to concede anything. The ball doesn't need to be within his catch radius for Diabate to be effective, as his ball pursuit is outstanding and he will cover 15-20 feet of ground to crash the offensive glass. 

When you have a player on your roster sporting a 7'3 wingspan that possesses NBA caliber leaping ability coupled with the motor of Dennis Rodman, things tend to go well on offensive glass. Moussa is definitely going to make a big impact on the offensive boards by generating extra possessions and garbage points via putbacks and kickouts to the perimeter. 

Transition

In what is becoming a theme, Diabate is great in transition in large part due to his elite athleticism and motor. Moussa has great straight line speed for a big and hauls ass when he's changing ends from defense to offense on rim-runs.

In the vast majority of possessions in the clip above, he outruns nearly everyone on the court to create easy looks at the rim. It punishes the opposition for crashing the offensive glass/playing traditional bigs and creates favorable cross-matches that lead to easy points.

You don't see many bigs as lob threats in transition because they're generally at the backend of the defense and lag behind because of it. Well, Diabate can easily overcome that and I expect him to be on the receiving end of some highlight alley-oops in Crisler with the explosive leaping ability to compliment his speed. 

Not much else to say here, a fast pogo-stick that goes hard on rim-runs is a another source of easy points and something Michigan has lacked for years. 

Post-Offense

Diabate didn't get a ton of back-to-the-basket opportunities in my viewings, but thrived in the limited chances he did have. 

His most polished move was a drop-step/spin going left. He erased an erect defender by getting his elbow in the defender's chest on the spin and removing him from the equation before elevating for an easy layup. It was quick, compact and balanced. 

While it was only one possession, Moussa looked great with his passing ability after drawing a double in the paint at the :14 mark of the clip. That is an extremely difficult pass to make in the air for an NBA player, let alone a HS senior. Need to see a bigger sample of his passing from the post, but this flash was encouraging. 

The other component of his post game is, you guessed it, elite athleticism. The possessions at the :06 and :28 second marks feature Diabate out-atheleting the opposition. He elevates over the defender for a clean look on a jump-hook over his left shoulder in the first, while utilizing his elite acceleration on a baseline drop-step for a dunk (was fouled, no call) in the second.

I don't envision this being a huge part of his role at Michigan since Hunter Dickinson may be the best back-to-the-basket big in America next season. But it will be an option during non-Hunter minutes and something Juwan Howard may tinker with since Dickinson is an elite passer from the top of the key. 

Free Throws

I only captured 6 free throws in my viewing and while the results weren't great, there is some potential here. Much like his jumpshooting, the mechanics are pretty good at the charity stripe, with a one-motion shot and soft touch.

The only real mechanical issue is the inconsistency in the knee bend. At times he's a bit too upright and the shot is short because of it. This is something that's easily correctable, particularly in a situation where he has time to collect himself mentally and think about proper lower body mechanics. 

Comments

BlueinKyiv

December 28th, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^

Looks good, but I think we will have to let him know, once he is on campus, that he will need to stay with the team at least two years to work through some of the remaining issues  ;-)

LabattsBleu

December 28th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^

Thanks Matt - great reading! Excited for Diabate...hopefully, he does enroll and bypasses the G league as he is a kid that could probably make that jump if he wanted to.

Any chance of similar deep dives on the other commits?

SamGoBlue2

December 29th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^

I am extremely high on Diabate, but to come away from that video with "has potential to be the best finisher at Michigan over the last 20 years" is a TAEK if I've ever seen one. Guy is going to develop...but missing five dunks in the first minute of the video (sure, including a couple on which he's fouled) is not exactly ideal. Athleticism off the charts...finishing ability? Little ways to go there. 

njvictor

December 28th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^

If Diabate can get his free throw shooting to a decent clip, then his length, athleticism, and fluidity is really going to get him a lot of chances and points at the free throw line

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^

Three major things stand out to me with these videos. One, his motor reminds me of McGary, where he's just endless and it will net a lot of extra possessions. Its one of the reasons I like Chaundee so much. Two, they must not call fouls much on those dunks because there is no way those are clean blocks every time. Three, if he gets the free throws down, he's gonna score a ton because nobody will be able to keep up with him. One thing is for certain, Houstan will have a lot of opportunities for open threes with Diabate on the floor. 

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^

Matt, are you hearing anything else recruiting related for the 21 class? My thoughts on the low post are this. Dickinson is most likely gone after next year and Diabate is obviously a one and done. That would leave us with no bigs with experience for the 22 class. Do you think Michigan will land another big for 21? 

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^

I honestly don't follow the NBA enough to know who are all stars and from what colleges other than the obvious players you always hear about like Curry and LeBron. That said, I feel like you have to separate success as a college program from having successful NBA players. I consider Michigan successful under Beilein but our former players aren't perennial all stars.

I think Mark Few is an excellent coach and runs a really good program. I think they play those 10 teams a year because their conference is weak. Playing those ten teams a year and beating those ten teams are different stories and Gonzaga often beats them. 

As far as tournament success, that is a crapshoot based on a lot of factors. I really feel like sweet 16's are a great accomplishment year after year and anything more than that puts you in another tier. Theyve made the elite 8 four times and the sweet 16 ten times. Five out of the last six years they have made the sweet 16. Thats more than one could say for Calipari at UK for example. These are all reasons why I think they are considered successful. As far as recruiting I would cite longevity of Few, basketball school, program success and access to a pretty talent rich area in Washington a some reasons for their success. 

Michigan4Life

December 28th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^

He's pretty much a one and done prospect to me but that's fine as long as he can make an impact in his only season as a Wolverine. He's being criminally underranked at the moment

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^

Matt,

Id like to get your perspective on the current 1 and done rule vs a 2 and done rule?

I know you've talked about the high school talent level being down so I'd like to know where you stand on kids getting good coaching for 2 years prior to the option of going pro. Thats around 60-70 games and practices. Obviously kids could still do the jump straight from high school if they so choose. 

Seems like it would help the NBA evaluate them on a more even scale as well. As Executives, seems you would be more certain to get longterm quality players this way. Thoughts?

Matt EM

December 28th, 2020 at 4:10 PM ^

I'm not really inclined to get too deep into this subject, as it opens up a can of worms (some of which are political in nature) in terms of the morality of kids being the focal point of the cash-cow that is the NCAA and not generating any income from it. 

I'll just say that I think the one-and-done rule needs to cease ASAP. I think that would appease, and slow down, the movement to essentially abolish college/amateur sports as we currently know them.

 

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^

Ok, I get where you are coming from on the one and done rule. What would your thoughts be, if you can answer, on a two and done rule (only if they chose to enter college)? If they choose the NBA out of high school then they can go straight there. Seems like this one year stop gap doesn't really help anyone involved. I guess my questions are more centered around improving the college game and also making sure the kids are ready for the pro game. This obviously eliminates the Zions of the world who are without a doubt ready. 

Matt EM

December 28th, 2020 at 5:38 PM ^

Honestly, I don't think a two and done would help the NBA much. The ratio of "hits" in the draft is extremely low. There might be 1-2 kids per draft where GMs know they will be starters and/or all-stars at the league level. 

Don't want to be down on some our kids in the past, but Burke, Wilson and Stauskas are prime examples of lottery picks that weren't great moves by GMs despite a 2 year sample. On the other hand, guys like Caris and THJ were great value picks.

Essentially, draft picks at the NBA level are nothing more than guesswork. Its just extremely hard to project how a player's skillset translates versus world-class athletes. 

Would it help the college game? Tough question. If you abolish the one-and-done rule you exclude presumably the best talents. In a league that is talent-deprived as of right now, don't know that it would help the overall talent base.

A lot depends on your criteria for "better". If continuity is a focal point for you, then I think ceasing the one-and-done rule and implementing a two-and-done rule probably helps. If the criteria is overall talent base, then it won't help. 

 

Jordan2323

December 28th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^

Thanks. I see both perspectives. Hopefully the direction Howard is going in with recruiting, we will get the best of both worlds. You'll have one and done players to go with longterm players.

Now, if Diabate pulls a Todd then my perspective is gonna start leaning back to recruiting the top 30-150 talent that will be more likely to actually show up.

If Howard can somehow get these 5 stars to stay for 3-4 (not likely) years like Roy Williams and Tom Izzo do then that solves all problems.