[Jett Howard]

Future Hoops Originals: Jett Howard Comment Count

Matt EM March 31st, 2022 at 10:20 AM

I took an in-depth look at 2022 signee Jett Howard to get a better feel for what Juwan Howard is getting from his wing of the future. The younger Howard suits up for IMG Academy (FL) of the prestigious NIBC League, so the evaluation comes against the very best competition in America. 

The first contest came in early December against top-5 ranked Sunrise Christian Academy, with two subsequent games against top-5 ranked Montverde Academy. 

 

Catch + Shoot Jumpers

This is the most translatable facet of Jett's game at the moment. He went 5/9 on catch and shoot attempts, with the majority being shots coming off movement while being contested or semi-contested looks. 

There are some mechanical flaws present, and the first shot attempt in the clip above is in slow-motion to provide a better visual. In the upper body, the ball placement is too close to the right side of Jett's face and the right elbow does cock out a bit. In simplified terms, its a bit of a push shot, but nothing extreme.

There is knee valgus present in the lower body and there is some twisting motion from right to left, which results in Howard's right leg/foot extending forward with a bit of a scissors kick.

Whatever he may lack in terms of balance/mechanics, he compensates for with a quick release. Jett gets his shot off very fast and that is a consistent theme. He can get shots off in tight spaces given his combo of size/length/release time. 

I'm fairly confident Howard will be a good catch + shoot option at Michigan. He's already hitting jumpers on the move via screens and relocations in a way that Caleb Houstan was not able to do with regularity as a freshman. That bodes really well for projecting, as he's likely to get better quality looks in Ann Arbor that don't involve as much movement, but has the ability to connect on those shot types when necessary. 

 

Pull-Up Jumpers

Jett went 1/6 on the pull-up jumpers in the clip above and its easy to see why. Those shots were generally off-balance and not high probability attempts for anyone in the world exclusive of the truly elite shotmaking guards at the NBA level. 

I've often suggested that Jett's percentage from deep may not necessarily be indicative of his true shooting prowess because it doesn't capture shot difficulty. He takes a lot of tough, stepback jumpers off the bounce from 2-3 feet beyond the NBA three-point line. Howard is a fine shooter, but he doesn't have the shotmaking ability of a Damian Lillard/Stephen Curry/Trae Young type just yet.

I'd expect Poppa Howard to mitigate this to a certain extent, but he's going to take some headscratching, low probability attempts that lower his shooting percentage. On the flip side, because of his experience taking tough shots, Jett may be a candidate to get some opportunities as the late-clock option since his combination of size + shotmaking ability makes it a bit easier for him to get off a contested look. 

 

Self Creation

The scouting here is relatively straight-forward. In isolation, the younger Howard can be effective creating his own offense when he's matched up versus a big or a wing that lacks good agility.

As you can see in the clip above, Jett is generally to limited to straight line-drives. He lacks the necessary shiftiness and acceleration to be a guy you can rely on to get good looks in isolation situations against defenders with size + agility.

When he does attempt to change direction/speed or string together combo-moves, he becomes vulnerable as seen below.

 

Howard is better creating for himself when he gets a ballscreen. He likes to split the screen and that allows him to get all the way to the rim. Don't know that I'm a big fan of him splitting ballscreens at Michigan, as his handle probably isn't tight enough and it's hard to "get skinny" against defenses in the B10 given how big Jett is. 

In simple terms, he's doesn't project to be a primary on-ball option at Michigan, but does look to have some promise as a secondary creator that can exploit mismatches or a scrambling defense. 

 

Playmaking For Others

I'm a bit higher on Howard's ability to create shots for others. He consistently finds teammates with kickouts after drawing a secondary defender with dribble-drives as depicted above. Those type of possessions generate open catch + shoot triples or driving lanes against a wild close-out. 

Jett is also a good playmaker when attacking a closeout himself. Against a scrambling defense, he projects to be really good in 4-on-3 and 3-on-2 scenarios. This is a bit of stretch, but I wouldn't be opposed to seeing what he can do as a playmaking big in pick + roll situations on the short roll in small spurts. 

The one consistent flaw I've noticed over the last year is that his passing arsenal generally lacks the bounce-pass. It's usually not an issue, but he can put too much air on his passes and/or telegraph at times. As seen below, those possessions can result in turnovers.

[Hit THE JUMP for the full breakdown.]

Finishing

Jett is much better as a bully-ball finisher that gets into the chest of the defender to initiate contact and draw fouls as the clip above shows. His combination of size + strength is the biggest asset when attempting to convert at the rim.

As you can see below, Howard struggles a bit when he gets cute jumping off the wrong foot or fading away from the rim. He simply lacks the elevation/twitchiness to be a finesse finisher against high-major size/athleticism.

In general, he converts at a much higher rate when he elevates with forward momentum and gets all the way to the rim. He optimizes his size + leaping ability when doing so and it allows him to contort his body if necessary as seen below.

 

Free Throws

Not much analysis here, Jett hit 10/12 at the charity stripe. He projects to be 75%+ shooter at the free throw line for Michigan. 

 

Defense

Howard is an above-average defender when tasked with defending the SF/PF position. He has a solid combination of size + agility to stay in front of bigger wings that aren't supreme athletes with great acceleration. He displays active hands and contests jumpers well.

I've seen enough of Jett over the last two years to know that he can struggle a bit when defending legit guards with speed on the perimeter. The agility is not poor by any means, but he's not gifted in that regard either. 

I project Howard to be a solid defender at Michigan, he should be semi-switchable at the 2-4 spots. I don't necessarily think he'll be a disruptive defender, but he's a considerable upgrade to Caleb Houstan athletically, while already possessing more muscle mass at a similar height. 

The other consistent item on my notes throughout the years has been the lack of effort as a rebounder. Jett hasn't really attacked the glass in the manner he should given his size/mass. That is one item that I'm quite sure Poppa Howard will address, as Coach simply doesn't tolerate lack of physical effort. 

Comments

Naked Bootlegger

March 31st, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^

Nice report, Matt.   Jett shows some offensive - and maybe defensive - versatility in the film.   We'll need him to be a heavy part of the rotation next year, so I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll provide quality minutes and be a semi-consistent 3 point threat that we desperately need.   

Shot selection and mechanics are not always crisp, but that's stuff that can be ironed out with maturity and reps at the collegiate level.   

Also, knee valgus.   You're the only recruiting analyst that I read that gets down to nitty gritty mechanical details like this!  More important, knee valgus is now the leading contender for my 2022 fantasy football squad name.

njvictor

March 31st, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^

Matt, a general scouting question: Has Houstan's inconsistency and struggles at Michigan, especially in regards to being better at taking stationary shots versus shooting off a screen or on the move, made you change how you evaluate shooters at the high school level? Or is Houstan more of an outlier?

Matt EM

March 31st, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^

Not really. I wasn't as high on Houstan in relation to the mainstreams, I tried to subtly convey that in my Hello post. 

In theory, a shooter with size has the potential to be a 3 + D wing. Fundamental problem with Caleb is that he's a 15-20th percentile athlete at the HM level, so I think a lot of evaluators got too enamored with stationary shooting on a Montverde team stacked with pros to hand-deliver him open shots. So I don't think Houstan is an outlier, as much as I think he may have been overvalued in a historically weak 2021 cycle. His on-court impact, from a wholistic perspective, is much closer to a 30-75 type prospect. 

Jett is a considerably better athlete IMO. 

4th phase

March 31st, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^

Matt, on the subject of Jett and Caleb, throw in Moussa for that matter. Do you see Jett having a bigger impact as a freshman on this team?

 

Because I've been kind of stunned that Michigan fans have been complaining about Houstan and Diabate's lack of instant impact, one-and-done, leading us to the final four as freshman, while at the same time talking about how Jett is going to start and get 30 mpg and be the shooting piece that solves the teams spacing issues.

My thought is, we shouldn't be getting our hopes way up on Jett, because we just saw what 2 highly rated freshman did. The big ten is tough. It's such a step up from high school. My expectations are like Kobe Bufkin+ level. 

Matt EM

March 31st, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^

In short, no.

Moussa was essentially an average B10 starter, while Houstan was functionally a slightly below-average B10 starter.

Jett is an above-average/good shooter with some secondary playmaking ability and solid defense. He's an average athlete that doesn't possess exceptional positional size.

None of that projects to a guy that that exceeds Moussa/Caleb in terms of productivity as a freshman.

In year 2 it is possible Jett exceeds Moussa/Caleb freshman level productivity, but folks really need to pump the brakes if the expectation is that he'll change the complexion of the team next year.

That only happens with no-brainer pros that are generally top 5 propsects overall. 

blueboy

March 31st, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^

"the expectation is that he'll change the complexion of the team next year...That only happens with no-brainer pros that are generally top 5 propsects overall."

You might mean something else by "changing the complexion of the team", but I don't know if the bar is that high. I mean I'd point to someone like Iggy Brazdeikis as someone who definitely  "changed the complexion" of that year's team, and he was far from a "top 5 prospect".  

Not saying that should be the expectation for Jett, but seems like that could be an upside case?

 

 

 

TrueBlue2003

March 31st, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^

The team really didn't have spacing issues.  Certainly not spacing issues caused but a lack of shooting.  Any "spacing" issues they had were those that came from playing two bigs that made for limited driving lanes, but that was a decision made to get Moussa and Hunter on the floor.  The shooters were fine, which is why Hunter never really had a problem with teams swarming the paint (and some even refused to double altogether, thanks Tom!).

We could have played Twill at the four to put a relatively good shooting five on the floor but we elected to play Moussa more for defense (I assume) and rebounding purposes.

The biggest problem the offense had, and mind you, this was a top 25 offense which is better than the Mo Wagner led offense that made it to the finals in 2018, was it lacked a perimeter player that could get his shot whenever he wanted.  But that was probably it.

And Jett won't solve that problem.  The hope is that Bufkin will be able to.

blueboy

March 31st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^

"Any "spacing" issues they had were those that came from playing two bigs that made for limited driving lanes"

A lot of teams play two bigs together. Once upon a time it was the default. Less common today for sure, but you're acting like Michigan was unique in playing 2 bigs. Was certainly rare during the Beilein era, but those Beilein teams played smaller than most teams do.  

There are tradeoffs from both sides, and when you play 2 bigs, that does put more pressure on your perimeter players to shoot. You are correct that if we started Twill over Moussa, shooting would've been better, but you could say the same thing about if we had a knockdown shooting PG to play over Jones.

trueblueintexas

March 31st, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^

I know most fans saw 6'8" elite shooter and dreamed of 4-5 made threes a game on 42%+ shooting. 

Here's a link to NCAA three point shooting stats for this year:

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/143

Very few players achieve that, especially at Power 5 programs. 

Houstan needs to develop his body. When you see a taller shooter fading on shots, that is usually a sign he is intimidated physically. Give Houstan a year at Camp Sanderson and let's see what his confidence looks like. If he comes back and puts the work in, I'm guessing we see a very different Caleb Houstan next year. Someone who will leverage their height, takes confident 3 point shots, and is a plus rebounder. 

trueblueintexas

March 31st, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^

It will be interesting to see how long it takes Jett to learn what a good shot is. In the clips posted, Jett consistently fades or drifts on his shots. I know he was going against good competition but that is what college will be like every game. Teammates, coaches, and fans, will get tired of that very quickly.

Given the multiple comparisons to Houstan, I think it is fair to point out that while he only averaged 4 rebounds/game, Houstan was a willing rebounder by the end of the year. He just lacked the body strength to compete against older/bigger players. Hopefully Houstan comes back after spending a summer at Camp Sanderson. I really would like to see what a stronger version of him can do in college. 

Jordan2323

March 31st, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^

Matt,

I put this in a other thread too but I’ve read recently there are rumors that Isaiah Barnes may enter the portal. Have you heard that? I’d like to see what he can bring next year to the team. 

SDskyjammer

March 31st, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^

Jett sounds like a future project upgrade at 3 or 4. I am hoping for a transfer portal with shot  making ability & get to the rim shooting & rebounding dude mentality. And really would like a more agile 5 with better lift off around the basket & speed.

Might be asking a lot to see huge step forward next year with Bufkin. He looks like a 2 year project to fill out & refine or upgrade his shot making skills.

Jordan2323

March 31st, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^

Saw where Efton Reid is transferring from LSU. I wonder if we would kick the tires there? Played at IMG and was there with Diabate and Jett. We are looking as if we will need one, if not two bigs.