EVEN MORE EXPANSIONZZZ Comment Count

Brian

I give up. All anyone wants to talk about is potential expansion, so more potential expansion bits.

Inside info! Someone close to the Rutgers athletic department says that RU will push hard for Big Ten entrance. Not like that is surprising, but there you go.

No, just no. Sorry, Teddy Greenstein, but…

Don't discount this: the Big 14.
Seriously.

I am discounting it. It is now 100% off for a limited time only, and by "limited time only" I mean "forever." Just because some guy in the Big Ten office says "anything is possible" does not mean that we shouldn't be shocked if a conference that's attempted to expand three times in the last fifteen years only to come up empty all of a sudden adds three teams to become an unwieldy beast of a conference in which you only play about half the teams every year.

Fourteen is ridiculous. The WAC was sixteen for a while until it exploded because at that point you're not a conference but a Thomas Jefferson-style loose confederation. Where is the common sense? Where is it? Is it in Russia? No.

Lloyd != Bo. This is not exactly "to hell with Notre Dame":

"I'd love to see Notre Dame join the Big Ten," Carr said. "I think certainly it would be a great thing for the Big Ten, and I think it would be great for Notre Dame.

"But, of course, they're fighting a lot of tradition there (at Notre Dame)," which has resisted overtures from the Big Ten previously, Carr added.

This, of course, is not happening. Notre Dame people believe that the Big Ten's only desire when it comes to engulfing Notre Dame is to destroy the university and therefore the very soul of America itself, and in this they are correct.

Also no just no. Sporting News colleague Dan Shanoff is a nice man who has a bad habit of coming up with an off-the-wall idea and posting it without running it through even the most cursory sanity check. Witness his suggestion that Navy should be the 12th Big Ten team:

*Academic credentials are impeccable.
*Football program is solid.
*Triple-option is "3 Yards/Cloud" 2.0
*Can keep trad'l games w/ Army, AFA, ND.
*Better than Notre Dame.
*Nearly beat Ohio State this season.
*Non-competitive recruiting strategy.
*But expands B10 footprint in the East.
*Feds could use the BCS bowl revenue.
*It is entirely uncontroversial.

Wrong, debatable, irrelevant, irrelevant, wrong, tiny sample size, irrelevant, wrong, irrelevant, irrelevant. The Big Ten is not a charity. Navy is not an AAU member, does not have any national TV cachet, would not be a compelling reason for local cable operators to carry the Big Ten Network because no one in DC is going to have a riot as long as the Army game is on CBS.

Simply comparing Navy to Pitt and finding that Pitt was better in literally every way other than supporting the troops—why does the Big Ten hate America?—would have shot this down before it worked its way onto the internet and sat there being embarrassing, like if the GEICO money was made out of shots of you picking your nose when you were six.

Yes, yes, Terrance Cody's gravitational pull makes everything revolve around the SEC. Braves & Birds tends to see things through two lenses: World War II and SEC superiority. So in retrospect this was obvious:

I have no doubt that this move is motivated by a major case of SEC envy. Barry Alvarez was probably sitting on his couch for the first weekends of the past two Decembers, watching the #1 and #2 teams in the country play each other in the Georgia Dome and thinking to himself "man, we need something like that." However, what the Big Ten needs is not the game in early December; what it needs is teams of the quality of Florida and Alabama. …

And so, to come full circle, the Big Ten right now reminds me of the Third Reich in the summer of 1944. Germany was about to get hammered in the East by Operation Bagration and in the West by Operation Cobra. Faced with major issue, Hitler decided that the way to win the war was by firing a bevy of V-2 rockets at London. His decision was a classic case of praying for some sort of saving throw the the dice when faced with basic shortcomings.

Did Clay Travis steal B&B's login information? The Big Ten has looked at expansion every five years since Penn State joined; were those all motivated by jealousy of the SEC, too? Did the Big Ten come off championships in 1997 and 2002 only to think to itself "that god damned SEC" and look at expanding the following year? How many rhetorical questions can I stick in one paragraph? Five?

I blame Joe Paterno for this annoying meme floating around. Here's his quote from March:

We go into hiding for six weeks," Paterno said, referring to the hiatus between the end of the Big Ten regular season and the BCS bowls. The other major FBS conferences play into the first weekend of December.

"Everybody else is playing playoffs on television," Paterno said. "You never see a Big Ten team mentioned. So I think that's a handicap."

People forget that Paterno is an 81-year old man who has little say over his own football team, let alone the conference it is in. The Big Ten is pushing its schedule later in 2010. Which is next year. To get increased exposure late in the season, all the Big Ten has to do is play.

This has nothing to do with the SEC except insofar as everything designed to get money is part of the arms race and the only conference that even competes with Big Ten is the SEC. They'll do it if they think it's a good idea; they won't if they don't. The big difference this time around is that Notre Dame seems permanently off the table and Pitt has built itself into an attractive basketball power with accompanying decent football program. B&B then goes off on the league's mediocre coaching as if expansion and hiring Danny Hope are in any way dependent. They are not linked.

morgan-freeman-argument is invalid

Yes, expansion is an attempt to make the league better on and off the field. I can't fathom why this has anything to do with the SEC except insofar as everyone who lives in the South is legally obligated to assume everything is because of the SEC. Clay Travis is writing up a column right now about how the New York Times is holding up health care reform by wasting their time on recruiting hostesses.

Hey, at least it's not just us. This post at Pitt Blather starts off with this sentence

I really, really, really don’t look forward to 18+ months of mindless speculation over Big 11 expansion.

…which I think we can all agree with. But then it appears that what Pitt Blather wants is speculation about Big East expansion that includes adding Villanova, a I-AA team, and Charlotte, a nonexistent team, instead of Memphis, a team with a billion dollars from FedEx guy.

Welcome. Now give us money. I don't actually know about this but I thought it was interesting. Smart Football's Chris Brown asks about a potential holdup with Team 12 (and team 13, and 14, and 52):

Someone sent me a question regarding whether a new Big 10 member could afford to join, and you seemed like the guy to mention it to.

The concern was whether any potential new Big 10 school could afford to "buy-in" to the BTN. Specifically, he said: "News Corp paid $66M to Big Ten for BTN in '07. Rough numbers put the value today at ~$400M. What school has ~$40M for buy-in?"

According to wikipedia, the member schools own 51% and Fox/News Corp owns 49%. The buy-in would not necessarily be 1/10 the value of the overall entity; it just needs to buy enough shares or units to have 1/12 of the 51%. I don't know how it is structured, but I bet the member schools jointly own an entity which itself owns 51% of the joint BTN venture with News Corp. That way a new school could just buy the units from the other schools, or they could issue new units, such that each school would then own 1/12 of the member schools' portion of the entity. Make sense? If you assume BTN really is worth $400m, that means that a new school would just have to buy 1/12 of the 51%, which comes out to around $17m.

But again, how do we know what the BTN is worth? Mandel threw some revenue figures together but those seem pretty darn loose. And in any event the biggest factor would be what kind of growth rate do you see from the Big 10 Network. I think we both agree the business model is fluctuating.

Finally, my friend made the point that he didn't think a school had that much money. I don't see why an athletic department couldn't borrow that money and then pay it down with future revenues; any school but Notre Dame would undoubtedly have their overall sports revenues increase.

Any thoughts on this? Specifically, whether buying into the BTN would be any kind of hurdle for a new member school? Also let me know if I'm looking at the structure wrong. I don't have any firm info and am just going off some stuff I saw online.

Chris

That would depend on how much the school in question brings to the table. If Notre Dame got really drunk and decided to sign up I doubt the Big Ten would push the issue much since adding them to the network would be a big win. Pitt or Rutgers or whoever might be asked to pay for their slice of the pie.

I don't think that would be a major hurdle since you're really cutting the school in on something with excellent growth potential; the school in question could justify buying in with a section of their general fund since it's an investment that should grow in value.

For the record. One man's list of the five most insane schools proposed for Big Ten expansion:

5. Iowa State. Yes, their athletic programs are that historically bad that a land-grant university in the geographic footprint makes this list.

LOOK AT THIS

beat-iowaEND OF STORY

At this rate by the end of these 18 months I'm going to be guest-posting trash talk about Iowa State on BHGP.

4. Toronto. Only mentioned because it's in the AAU and Toronto is so starved for entertainment that they'll sell out MLS games. Problems: the pilot program for NCAA induction of a few Universities only applies to D-II and will get a few schools out West in within ten years, Toronto doesn't play American football, and Michigan State would have to forfeit all its games there because Canada wouldn't let them into the country.

3. Navy. Previously discussed.

2. Cornell. Cornell is an Ivy-league school without a I-A football program. And yet…

1. Rice. It's got all the downsides of Texas combined with all the downsides of Iowa State. Its only asset is that its band integrated e^x during the Rice-Michigan game a while back just so they could spell "sex" in front of 110,000 people.

Comments

DoubleB

December 17th, 2009 at 7:26 PM ^

has managed to thrive over the last 15 years despite the dissolution of the SWC, playing in a watered down WAC that included conference games against Hawaii-Hilo (yes, that's Hawaii-Hilo, not Hawaii), and now C-USA. They could probably survive as an independent in baseball if they had to. I'm not convinced they would join the Big Ten if offered, but the baseball team wouldn't be a reason at the top of the list--they will be fine regardless as long as Graham is still there.

FrankMurphy

December 17th, 2009 at 3:19 PM ^

I would actually put Toronto at the top of the list of insane schools. You might as well suggest the Indian Institute of Technology ("They've got a great cricket program, and cricket is on the verge of taking off in the US! The Big Ten should get in on the ground floor!").

Number 7

December 17th, 2009 at 3:24 PM ^

Colorado (like Missouri or IA State, but a better university, and less integrated into the Big 8 -- yes it's far, but it's not like anybody would by hopping a greyhound to Springfield, anyway). Marshall (like Pitt or West Virgina, but more willing to switch conferences -- they do it as a matter of school policy twice every decade as it is.) Memphis (Fed Ex Billions? hmmm.) Tulsa (GLUEBLUE4EVR jestingly says we'd get to see McGuffie if Rice got in -- But only Tulsa offers Shavodrick Beaver on a platter (or a bench, as the case may be). U. of Chicago (an orginal member, I believe, so history is on the side here. Not sure if they have a football team -- or even an athletic department -- but it wouldn't hurt to have an in-conference Baby Seal against which to play most years. Natural rival for Northwestern.)

Newk

December 17th, 2009 at 6:16 PM ^

Chicago to B10 would be the most absurd suggestion yet. They're D III. They have no stadium. They don't give athletic scholarships. No one here cares about college sports. If talking about Kant or Thucydides and wearing turtlenecks were a B10 sport, U of C would dominate.

jmblue

December 17th, 2009 at 3:29 PM ^

"The WAC was sixteen for a while until it exploded because at that point you're not a conference but a Thomas Jefferson-style loose confederation." And the Rice performance - wow, how did I never hear of that?

m83econ

December 17th, 2009 at 4:01 PM ^

Expansion is a bad idea for Michigan. It further dilutes the revenue stream, will result in a divisional structure that causes unbalanced schedules and throws another obstacle in the path to conference champion, BCS championship berth, etc. Just extend the schedule to 1st weekend in December and add another bye week (beyond the 2010 plan). Cold weather? Don't worry - Algore has promised global warming!

footbox

December 17th, 2009 at 4:05 PM ^

I would have to disagree with you assesment of of Navy as a whole. First of all they have been toa bowl game 7 out of the last 8 years and have beat ND two out of the last three, so its not liek they have a bad football team. I would be more worried about that rest of their teams playing in the big ten, thats where it would be ugly for Navy in almost every sport other than their lacrosse team is awesome. And for the academics portion, i understand they may not do the reasearch that Pitt does but that is only because they have no graduate programs. But you in terms of undergraduate studies you cannot compare it to Pitt, NAVY blows a pitt undergrad degree away, not even close.

dahblue

December 17th, 2009 at 4:17 PM ^

There is no way Navy should be in the conversation. It's a service academy! Navy would be a giant turd in the Big Ten punch bowl. Nothing against Navy as an institution (or service academies in general), but they don't have any fit in the Big Ten. For me, the standard (all deep thinking and statistical analysis aside) is...who feels like a Big Ten team. I'd say that PSU has a natural Big Ten feel. Who else? Colorado, Nebraska, and worst case...PITT. Maybe there are logical reasons why some or all of those fail, but if we're looking at Navy...why not TCU...they also have nothing in common with the Big Ten.

footbox

December 17th, 2009 at 4:35 PM ^

i should have mentioned that im not for Navy going into the Big Ten, just thought some of the arguements in the post were not quite correct. I think overall Pitt is the best option the Big Ten has at this time. But how does Colorado feel like a Big Ten team, they are terrible at almost every sport right now and have been for some time and most of the time thier stadium is not anywhere near full and its not a big place. They even have been getting beat by Colorado State in football and basketball which is a bottom feader in the mountain west. Besides all the boulder/denver area cares about are the Broncos, CU is an after thought.

dahblue

December 17th, 2009 at 5:05 PM ^

CU feels right to me for a number of reasons: 1. The Mork & Mindy intro was filmed on their football field. 2. Boulder is a much-loved college town like Madison or A2. 3. They have been down, but I'd put them on the historic level of Iowa for somewhat modern-era athletic success. 4. Very cool helmets.

M-Wolverine

December 17th, 2009 at 4:30 PM ^

Let's be honest...we'd be bringing in an above average basketball team that lost their really good coach to UCLA, and if they have any success, will lose their coach to whatever power is looking for it now. They've been a pretty bad football team having an ok season losing to everyone that matters with a laughingstock coach. By those standards, we should be inviting West Virginia, which handled Pitt and has a top ten basketball team right now. Frankly, not getting an ND or Nebraska, I don't see the value of adding a team just for a $5 million dollar game that will make EVERYTHING split with an extra share to another institution. A team like Pitt adds NOTHING to the Conference. Certainly not enough to upheave how the whole thing is arranged, messing around with traditions and rivalries and all. If you can get a value added team, fine. To just pick somebody to go to 12 to follow everybody else? A waste. The Big Ten is supposed to be the leaders and innovators, not the followers. Whether it be expansion, replay, their own network, they set the standards, not follow them late. If we're headed towards mega conferences, as the Big 12 and Pac 10 absorb the top of the MWC and WAC, and the Big East scoops up the Conference USA, and so forth, we should be the one making the seismic changes, and that involves adding three teams, getting who we want now out of the other conferences, and become the power conference in an indisputable financial way, if we can't get someone who can do that on their own. Otherwise, it's a waste of time. Just leave things as they are, till you're really ready to do something important. Because that sound you hear around the country is crickets chirping over the idea of Pitt moving to the Big Ten. Over the yawns.

brianshall

December 17th, 2009 at 5:55 PM ^

Notre Dame? (I mean, then it's Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Navy as Big 10 team they play regularly) Big 14 = current + Navy + Rutgers + Notre Dame Could happen

KSmooth

December 17th, 2009 at 10:04 PM ^

Navy won't happen. Academically they stack up well enough, and there are weaker football teams being tossed around (Syracuse for example) but as a service academy they just don't fit culturally, plus they are pretty close to irrelevant in basketball and that's something that can't be ignored. So who does get in? I wouldn't rule Notre Dame out completely. The economics for ND's independent status just don't hold up well over time. Their football program has been wallowing in mediocrity for better than a decade. Most of the scheduling issues should be fixable. I mean, it can't be that hard to arrange an off week for UND to play USC. Not making a prediction that this is going to happen, but I smell conventional wisdom here and that doesn't always pan out.

HHW

December 17th, 2009 at 6:27 PM ^

I have zero interest in who they add, is that wrong? I assume that they will select a team that will fit in with our league. Because of that I could care less until they make the announcement.

psychomatt

December 17th, 2009 at 8:09 PM ^

I don't know about the 14 (or 16) team ideas, but anyone who thinks that ND is not the primary target of this entire exercise does not understand how the economics of college sports has changed over the past 10-15 years. And this trend will continue, with it being harder and harder each decade for ND to remain independent. The following article does a good job of explaining NDs situation: http://www.slate.com/id/2203927/ Moreover, everyone likes to throw around NDs contract with NBC as the main problem. As indicated in the above article, the average team in the B10 makes about $15 million per year from TV revenues v. the $9 million per year ND makes from NBC. Moreover, the B10s TV revenues would increase if ND joined because their existing contracts would be renegotiated upward and the conference would add a championship game. ND easily would make much more in TV revenues as part of the B10 than it has ever made from its contract with NBC. Another way to look at this is to compare ND's financial situation with other elite programs. Here is a list of the athletic department budgets of the major D-1 schools: http://newsburglar.com/2009/08/18/college-athletic-department-budget/ Notice that virtually all of elite teams are now ahead of ND. ND is, in fact, dwarfed by Texas, OSU, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and PSU. And when Michigan is done with its luxury boxes and club level, its numbers will jump significantly to rival the two names at the top of the list -- Texas and OSU. Like it or not, ND has to live within the realities of the financial world. ND has to pay head coaches and assistant coaches, the salaries of both of which are on the rise. ND has to pay for facilities upgrades to woo recruits, again which get crazier every year (have you seen Texas' Godzillatron?). ND has to pay for everything that every one of these other schools has to pay for, and as those costs continue to rise, ND will either need to find a way to increase revenues to keep up with the elite teams or continue to fall behind. ND absolutely will fight this as long as they can. ND wants to remain independent, but not for financial reasons. Nonetheless, the writing is on the wall. PSU wanted to remain independent too, but the best financial decision they every made was to join the B10. This example will not be lost on ND. Similarly, there was a ton of hand-wringing when ND was considering whether to expand ND Stadium. Despite the traditionalists, the stadium was expanded. Why? Money. The only things that will prevent ND from joining the B10 (eventually) is if either (1) ND comes up with a better idea or (2) the B10 gets impatient and adds another team before ND cries uncle. If ND simply continues to sit still in an attempt to maintain the status quo, it will continue to decline in relevance as more teams catch up to them and pass them in financial resources. And if there is one thing that ND loathes more than the idea of joining a conference, it is becoming permanently middle-of-the-pack in football. I only hope the B10 does not get impatient and add Cincinnati or Louisville or Pitt (or some other forgettable team) in the interim. Nothing would suck more than to see the B10 end up with Cincinnati and then have ND join the Big East in response under a sweetheart deal because the Big East needs ND so badly just to survive.

Simi Maquoketa

December 18th, 2009 at 8:27 AM ^

Great post! I rant about Nebraska--but that's because I'm in the group that believes ND will never join. Your analysis is dead on, though, and ND's stubbornness and belief the college football sun rises and sets in South Bend looks pretty weak when you go through what you have to say. I never imagined the Big Ten TV revenues dwarf their TV deal. And I do agree that with them in the fold, TV revenue would increase for everybody well beyond what they get from NBC. In the end, they look pretty shortsighted and just might find themselves more marginalized as time goes on. Too bad. I think you're right about patience for the Big Ten being key here. That's also why I do not like the idea of Pitt or any other team (besides Nebraska)--once the Big Ten makes this decision, it actually might push ND to another conference and the Big Ten will be left with Cincinnati of someone like that while the ACC nabs Notre Dame. I think that's why we see the timetable of 12-18 months to explore the idea. It gives the Big Ten and ND time to go on a few dates, have some drinks (thanks Brian), maybe even spend a romantic weekend together somehwere and hell, who knows? Possibly run off to Vegas and elope!