As is customary, one week after the NCAA softball season got underway, baseball is about to do the same. Indeed, Michigan Baseball is set to begin its season tonight against #14 Texas Tech in Arlington as part of the College Baseball Showdown. The Wolverines finished last season's COVID-modified season with a 27-19 record, good for 3rd in the B1G (27-17 in conference), but they were quickly broomed out of the South Bend Regional by UCONN and Central Michigan. Obviously there is a hunger for redemption inside the program as Erik Bakich chases his first regular season conference title, and the 2022 squad figures to be an intriguing group, with some legitimate stars but also a ton of question marks. 

Your author is not a Michigan Baseball aficionado the way he is with softball, so I can't say that this will be as detailed of a preview as last week's softball one was, but my goal will be to cover all the bases (pun intended) and be a bare bones guide. After all, for a program as unfortunately under-covered as Michigan Baseball, any coverage at a major outlet such as this one is an upgrade, so I'm doing my best to chip that in at a basic level and bring a little more awareness to this less-talked about team. For the narrative of the preview, I'm pooling the statistics with my own knowledge, as well as the knowledge of that of my one-time colleague Austin Falco, perhaps the biggest Michigan Baseball fan and knowledge bank on the program out there. 

 

Returning Hitters in the Lineup

Michigan rolls over a good collection of top talent who should provide thump in the middle of the order thanks to a stellar junior class. Ted Burton is one of the B1G's best hitters after slashing .342/.434/.667/1.101 in 2021, with all of those values ranking in the top ten in the league last season. His 7 HR weren't overwhelming, but he didn't break into the everyday lineup until a bit later in the year, so they (+ his 12 doubles) represented a high percentage of his total hits and hence the monstrous SLG clip. Burton gets on base and he hits for power, and will give the Michigan order a huge amount of punch. He's set to be Michigan's everyday third baseman. 

The other two big boppers who give Burton protection are his fellow juniors Tito Flores and Jimmy Obertop. Flores can play the outfield or 1B and he got on base at a nearly identical .429 clip with an also identical 7 HRs, plus five steals. Obertop is your traditional slugger with monstrous power, not quite the doubles hitter of Burton, but his 11 HRs were tied for fifth in the conference last season. One of those 11 was a walk-off two run HR to cap in an improbable comeback against MSU in March that your author got to be on the broadcast for (and thus it is my voice in the below video): 

MICHIGAN WINS!!!!!!

OBERTOP GOES OPPO 2-RUN BLAST & WE WIN 8-7 with 8 runs in the 9th! LFG #NCAABaseball #GoBlue! pic.twitter.com/vQC3laFjli

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) March 21, 2021

The downside for Obertop as a HR-focused hitter is he does struggle with the strikeout, an ugly 59 K in 153 ABs. Michigan would like to see that ratio come down in 2022, but you're not going to complain about having a .900 OPS guy in your lineup. The question with Obertop is where he fits in defensively, as it sounds like Michigan is going to try him behind the plate, but his experience there at the NCAA level is limited. If he can't fit behind the dish, DH or 1B is a logical place for him.

Those three will likely be joined by Clark Elliott, who isn't the same caliber of hitter (yet) but should be a consistent everyday hitter. Elliott is an outfielder who got on at over .400 last season and though he doesn't have a Burton or Overtop level of power, he did have 8 steals on 10 attempts, adding that speed dimension. Riley Bertram is a returning starter, but the kind where you are half-hoping that someone else steps up and takes his job, because Bertram was brutal in 2021 offensively. The Wolverines' starting 2B posted an OPS of .605 thanks to a very low batting average and being a soft hitter, zero HRs and only 6 XBHs total. There was a lot of hope for Bertram earlier in his career, and perhaps he can make a leap at the dish still, but right now he's merely a blackhole in the order, one where you're looking for an upgrade. 

Jordon Rogers got nearly the same number of at bats as Bertram despite appearing in seven fewer games (and starts), being able to play both the OF and catcher. Rogers was a decently entertaining player last year, stroking some clutch hits against Rutgers, Minnesota, and PSU, but he still was a .682 OPS hitter. His experience in the lineup means Rogers will get his shot to stick for Michigan, but perhaps he's not sharpie'd into the lineup yet. 

Elliott, Obertop, Burton, and Flores are four players who should anchor the top/middle of the lineup as known quantities. Bertram and Rogers would seem to have better than 50% odds to be consistent faces somewhere in the lineup as well. It is the remainder of the order that is more in flux. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: hitters, pitchers, and opponents!]

 

Matt Frey is one of three potential impact transfer bats [Davidson Athletics]

Transfer Hitters 

Michigan has hit the portal for a few players that could make the lineup on a consistent basis, replacing last year's portal additions in Benjamin Sems, Griffin Mazur, and Christian Molfetta. Joe Stewart comes over from MSU, which has the added plus of being acquainted with the conference. In his first season as a regular contributor, Stewart was a solid piece for the Spartans, with a .276/.344/.455/.799 quadruple slash, a touch of power but also high strikeouts. You'll have to think he'll get a shot to start in the outfield next to Elliott. 

Matt Frey was actually a portal addition last offseason, but he missed all of 2021 with a knee injury, so this will be his first season in a Michigan uniform. Frey played at Davidson in 2019, a .266 hitter with .380 on base and 8 HRs in 50 games, a solid all around player who can play the middle infield. He was off to a roaring start in the 2020 season before COVID canceled the remainder of the year, and those are his last NCAA games of record. With Michigan losing their SS from last season in Sems, adding a solid veteran piece like Frey is a good plug and play option to have on board. Both Stewart and Frey were reported to have had good fall practices and would seem like they hold the inside track to starting. 

Alex Fedje-Johnson is also a Davidson pickup, as Bakich seems to be raiding the Fighting Steph Currys with a vengeance. He's coming off a great 2021 season that saw him get on base at a .450 clip with 18 2Bs, 5 HRs, and 9 steals. Unclear how those offensive numbers will translate to the B1G, but I think that's a player who deserves a look and it sounds like he will get one. Fedje-Johnson is another infielder, having played 3B and SS in his career. Not sure if he can get into the infield defensively, but DH could be an option too. 

 

Jake Marti is the closest thing to a known among the unknowns [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Young Unknown Hitters 

In theory, you could get to a nine man lineup by going with the three transfers + the six returners I've talked about, but this is college baseball. Plenty of other players are going to get to play, it's just a bit unclear who those guys will be because many of the options have very little NCAA experience. Jake Marti is the one with the most experience at Michigan, logging 66 unsavory at bats last season to the tune of a grisly .182 batting average and .579 OPS, no homers, and strikeouts in 33% of ABs. Marti is a versatile player defensively, but he's got to be better offensively to make the everyday lineup. 

Brandon Lawrence (INF) is a sophomore who went 2/5 with a pair of walks and a homer in isolated cameos as a freshman, a former solid recruit out of Southern California. Joey Velazquez (OF), football and baseball player, was 4/23 last year in his first full season with the program. Both guys in theory could be in line for more time, but just hard to say right now when we haven't seen a ton from them. Jack Van Remortel (INF) and Casey Buckley (C) are two guys who were a part of the 2019 CWS team before going off to JuCo, and then have returned to the program. Neither posted terribly great offensive numbers in the JuCo circuit, which is making me hesitate to believe they will have major roles on this team. 

Among the true freshmen, C Joe Longo and SS Cody Hultink are decent recruits, with the latter perhaps having the better chance of being a regular player for these Wolverines. Worth remembering that given how NCAA baseball works, it's generally a good idea to temper expectations with freshmen. Case in point for that preceding sentence is the following list of Michigan rising sophomores who didn't see the field for a single inning last year: INF Dan Blomgren, brother of Jack, INF Dylan Stanton, INF Trevor Kilinski, and OF Ian Kennedy (not to be confused with the MLB journeyman pitcher of the same name). Of those, Kennedy was the best recruit in the class, so take that for what it's worth. 

The problem with NCAA Baseball is it's hard to know what to expect from players who haven't seen the field in an extended capacity before if you don't attend the practices, and I don't. It's hard to say that any of these guys individually will pop and grab a starting job, but based on combined probabilities, it seems like there's a pretty good chance that someone out of this gaggle will. Leading spots for that would be 2B (replacing Bertram), CF (replacing Rogers), and C/DH (depending on what happens with Obertop's move there). 

 

Jacob Denner is an important piece of the rotation [James Coller]

The Rotation 

The good news is that Michigan gets two-thirds of its 2021 rotation back. The bad news is that they lost their ace Steve Hajjar, picked in the 2nd round of the MLB Draft by the Minnesota Twins. Back to the good news, Cameron Weston is ready to be the ace of the 2022 squad. The righty was excellent a year ago, with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP as the Saturday starter, actually a better ERA than Hajjar had (though not as good strikeout numbers). Weston finished with the 3rd lowest ERA in the B1G among qualified starters and now as a junior, it's showtime for him in a season that will likely end in an MLB Draft selection and a pro contract. 

Jacob Denner was last year's #3, fine in that role, and now he will be asked to step up a notch to the Saturday slot. Denner didn't make as many starts as Weston or Hajjar, but over nine starts we still got a decent feel for the 6'0" lefty hurler. He struggled with some wildness (.274 average against and a 1.45 WHIP), but Denner was a good bet to give you 4-5 innings a start with a 4.35 ERA. Again, decent for a #3. But he will need to make some improvements to slide up a spot in the rotation. 

The reporting suggests that the early shot at being the #3 starter is surprisingly Willie Weiss. Weiss was stellar as Michigan's closer last year and has been a late inning fixture dating back to his freshman season in 2019. Stretching him out to be a starter will be an interesting experiment, but the following tweet confirms the reports and Weiss notes that he's developed a changeup that he thinks will make it possible (giving him a third pitch). We'll see!

Ranked among the top MLB Draft prospects in the Big Ten Conference, Michigan's Willie Weiss has averaged nearly 1.5 strikeouts per inning pitched as a Wolverine. Learn more about the #GoBlue righty with the nasty slider: pic.twitter.com/mVZ1YIOjgl

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) February 14, 2022

Weiss finally found his command last year, keeping the walks low while still mowing down opponents through his slider. It's a dynamite combination, it just remains to be seen if it can work as a starter. 

If Weiss doesn't jell in the rotation, there are a lot of question marks as to who could fill his place. John Torroella comes over from Brown as a transfer option, but he hasn't pitched in an NCAA game since 2020. Logan Wood and Connor O'Halloran were two guys who got into a handful of games last season as younger arms, Wood's going well despite bad command while O'Halloran was shelled repeatedly. Both will look to improve moving from their freshmen to sophomore year. Keaton Carattini and Walker Cleveland have gotten trial runs before and could be options too as older guys. You have to imagine at least a few of these names will get stabs at starting whether it's in a weekend role or through the midweek games. 

 

Jack White is one of the few returning known quantities for Michigan's bullpen [JD Scott]

The Bullpen 

Michigan's bullpen is going to look quite a bit different due to Weiss moving to the rotation and other attrition. Some of last year's most used arms in relief, Joe Pace, Blake Beers, Will Proctor and Isaiah Page, have all graduated or were drafted. Ben Dragani, last year's part-starter/part-long man, opted to transfer to Pittsburgh. That leaves a bit of rubble, but also huge opportunities for younger players. Jack White is a returner from last season who logged a decent chunk of innings as a lefty, but he's got command issues of his own to reign in. Angelo Smith returns as a grad transfer after having most of his season washed out due to injury, a wild, live arm lefty who has been around the program for some time. Neither White nor Smith would be my ideal options to go to in a high-leverage situation. 

Many of the names who I mentioned in the starter section will figure in here, as well as there being the potential for some true freshman to log a few innings. Noah Rennard played at JuCo from 2018-20 and could get a look, while freshmen from last season like Chase Allen, Ryan Zimmer, and Ahmad Harajili are options to get real work for the first time in their NCAA careers. Michigan brought in a couple recruits who were rated favorably by Perfect Game's scouting, notably Jaylen Jones and Tyler Fullman, but I would temper expectations in year one. 

Of all areas of the roster, the bullpen is the one where there are the most question marks, a huge amount of uncertainty and few known quantities. The optimistic take is that Michigan has a lot of options and they can see what works early in the season, with the hope of building a solid bullpen by the season's end. The pessimistic take is that the early season games are pretty important and if you want to notch quality wins to beef up your resume, you're going to need to figure out late inning options pretty quickly. 

 

Nebraska are the preseason favorites [Savannah Hamm/Omaha World Herald]

The Schedule and Conference 

A possible explanation for the poor performance of B1G teams in both the baseball/softball tournaments last season was the lack of the usual tough non-conference games due to the COVID conference-only schedule. Those tough non-con games give teams in weaker conferences (like the B1G) a taste of top competition before it's tourney time. Things will go back to normal this year, as Erik Bakich has loaded up the non-conference, starting with tonight's game against Texas Tech. Other preseason top 25 teams Michigan is set to see include East Carolina (#12), Notre Dame (#13), and Vanderbilt (#3), as well as teams like Louisville and Oklahoma, who make the tourney a decent bit too. This will provide us another early look as to how good Michigan actually is, as well as a chance to boost the resume. 

As for the B1G, last season they got just three bids to the NCAAs in Nebraska, Michigan, and Maryland. It seems to be a similar collection of teams at the top this year, with defending champions Nebraska ordained as the preseason favorites, riding star 3B Max Anderson. Michigan was picked second in the preseason coaches poll, followed by Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, and Indiana, a pretty familiar cast of characters if you've followed B1G baseball for a few years now. The Wolverines get a tough conference schedule, with all five of those rivals getting three game series with Michigan, starting with the huge Nebraska series in Lincoln in late March. Like with softball, we're going to learn a lot about this team pretty early. 

The B1G Tournament returns this season after being canceled each of the last two years. As always, it will be held in Omaha, taking place from May 25-29, before the NCAAs begin the first week of June. 

 

Erik Bakich leads another Michigan team into a new season [Bill Rapai]

Feelingsball and Season Expectations

Michigan Baseball's 2019 run was an aberration and not a reasonable expectation for this team, or this program on a consistent basis. Last year's campaign, top three in the league and a regional team, is much more in line with what they've been under Erik Bakich. Which, considering the structural factors disadvantaging a B1G squad, is nothing to scoff at. A reasonable expectation for this team probably fits right in line with last year, competitive in the conference title chase and on the right side of the bubble when it comes to playing in June. 

There are some pieces to be excited about, between Weston, Flores, Obertop, and Burton, but also a lot of uncertainty farther down in the lineup and in the bullpen/the rest of the pitching staff. If Michigan can rip off some wins in the non-conference and gets contributions from some of the question mark players I've listed in this piece, then we might be able to revise expectations upwards in late March. But for now, given what we know about the team, it feels hard to "expect" anything more than a similar kind of season to 2021 (or 2017 for that matter).