2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half, Power Rankings Upper Half

It's almost here! Michigan basketball is now just a couple days away from tipping off for real, following the exhibition outing against Wayne State on Friday. I did not get to see much of that one, but I have gleaned the insight from the other writers out there and will pepper it into these preview pieces when appropriate. Today we start our positional previews, with this post looking at those players whom I have assigned into the "guard" bucket. Of course, in the modern era of positionless(ish) basketball, it has become harder to simply limit players to just the distinction of being a "guard", so I'm listing the five players on Michigan's roster who best fit that designation here, but acknowledging that some players on here may show up at wing (and I note it in the piece). Let's kick it off with Juwan Howard's high profile transfer acquisition: 

 

Devante’ Jones

Year: Senior/GRAD

Height/Weight: 6’1/200

Key Counting Stats: 32.8 MPG, 19.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.8 SPG, .487/.368/.862 **

Key Advanced Stats: 25.0% usage, 116.5 ORtg, 5.1 OR%, 17.5 DR%, 16.1 TORate, 17.0 Assist Rate, 43.3 FTRate, 4.3 Steal Rate **

** = at Coastal Carolina

Michigan went shopping for a veteran PG for the second straight season, emboldened by the success of reeling in Mike Smith from Columbia last year. This year’s Halloween present (if that’s a thing) is Devante’ Jones, who comes to Michigan by way of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. The New Orleans native spent three years at Coastal, with last year being his best, earning Sun Belt Player of the Year honors and in the process becoming one of the biggest transfer names on the market. Juwan Howard sold him on Michigan and its system, and Jones is now penciled in as the starting point guard.

Most will run to make comparisons to Mike Smith for obvious reasons, and the comparison has some merit. Their level of competition at their previous destinations was similar, with the Ivy League and the Sun Belt being ranked pretty similarly by KenPom. However, the comparison loses its utility the harder you look, because Jones and Smith are pretty different players.

For one, Jones didn’t really play PG last year, being shifted more into a SG role after playing the point in 2019-20. Secondly, Jones is a bigger player than Smith, listed at 6’1”, compared to Smith’s 5’11”, and Jones’ game thus revolves more around getting to the rim, as opposed to the perimeter shooting that Smith offered. Jones has a range of tricks in his bag when it comes to shooting from two, and he’s shot remarkably well from inside the arc as a collegiate player, >54% in all three seasons at CC. Here’s a survey of said moves:

That floater you see in the first clip is Jones’ most trusted weapon, 80th percentile on Synergy at nearly 1.0 PPP. But beyond that, you see all the moves in his repertoire, the eurostep, the spin move, the ability to cut past defenders and get to the rim, as well as the comfortability to step back and hit the fade away jumper. Pair this with Jones being a prolific scorer in transition and you see how his profile inside the arc allowed Jones to be a lethal offensive player at Coastal Carolina, a 116.5 ORtg on high usage. Indeed, he posted the best ORtg of any player with at least 24% usage in the Sun Belt last season, shedding light on why Jones was the Player of the Year in that conference.

Integrating him into Michigan’s offense may not be silky smooth, despite the talent that Jones possesses, because it bears repeating that his profile is different than Smith's. Michigan’s offense relies heavily on ball screens, yet Jones has not been the ballhandler in the screen and roll game that often in his career, partially because CC doesn’t feature it as much in their offense, but also because he wasn’t playing PG last season. On the other hand, Smith was a polished savant as a PNR ballhandler coming out of Columbia. Similarly, Smith shot 41.8% from three last season, while Jones is just a 33.4% career shooter from beyond the arc, without any obvious clues that suggest Michigan should see upward regression in those numbers next year.

For the record, your author thinks Jones should be just fine as a passer out of the PNR. He may not have a wealth of experience doing it, but the clips of Jones passing out of screens that have been put together by various people analyzing his game have shown me enough to feel comfortable with him in that role. He sees the court well:

The one question regarding Jones as a ballhandler is the turnovers, which have been at an acceptable rate when he’s played as a scoring guard but were at 3.4 per game (a quite bad 21.9 rate) when he played as a PG back in 2019-20. Did those go up as a result of him having to handle the ball more? Unsure, but it’s a storyline to monitor. An additional data point to munch on: Jones had four turnovers in the exhibition against WSU. 

I’m much more uncertain about Jones’ ability to shoot from long range. His 36.8% three-point percentage last season was a career high, but just a year prior Jones was at 29.6%. Unlike Smith, who was taking a lot of bad shots at Columbia because his team was atrocious, which suggested obvious upward regression in 3PT% on a more talented team, Jones hasn’t really been forced into a multitude of bad shots, yet has never shown the ability to shoot from outside as well as Mike Smith. He’s been as good of an offensive player (if not better) than Smith because he’s far more effective inside the arc, but on a Michigan team that’s losing a ton of perimeter shooting talent, it does not appear that Jones is an obvious solution to this. In summary, on the offensive side of the ball, it’s reasonable to assume that Jones will be a very good offensive player, maybe better than Smith, but it’s not a 1:1 substitution in terms of role, and there could be growing pains if Michigan asks Jones to play that same function in the offense.

On defense, though, Jones should be a clear upgrade on Smith. In adding Devante’ Jones, Michigan is getting a premier ball thief, one who posted the 18th-best steal rate in the country last season at 4.3. This will add an intriguing component to the Michigan defense that wasn’t present in 2020-21, as the Wolverines, despite the suffocating defensive numbers, were the 26th-worst team in steal rate last year. Jones is also an excellent defensive rebounder for a point guard, and his height and wingspan advantage compared to Smith will pay dividends on this side of the ball. Need more evidence of his defense? Look at these on/off splits for Coastal Carolina’s defense with and without Jones:

The wide gap in 2PT% is most startling and the clearest indicator of how important Jones was to the Coastal defense. Mike Smith was Michigan’s weakest defender among the starting five last year, and the Wolverines will be swapping him out for a clear plus at that position in Devante’ Jones, which raises the team’s defensive ceiling.

Role: Jones is going to be the starting PG and should get a Smith-like role, somewhere around 30 minutes per game. He is one of the biggest swing factors for this Michigan team, with the ability to both submarine this team below their expectations or push them to even greater heights. ‘Tis life when you hand the keys to the car to a player who has never yet worn the Maize & Blue in an NCAA game. Jones will orchestrate the offense out of the PNR and will probably be, along with Dickinson in the post, one of the two safety valves for late shot clock offense. Get to know him now, because you’ll be seeing a lot of Devante’ Jones this year.

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Professor says class is in session]

 

Eli Brooks' defense is important, too [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Eli Brooks

Year: 5th Year/GRAD

Height/Weight: 6’1/185

Key Counting Stats: 31.1 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, .426/.396/.909

Key Advanced Stats: 16.0% usage, 117.0 ORtg, 1.9 OR%, 9.3 DR%, 12.8 TORate, 17.3 Assist Rate, 21.1 FTRate, 2.1 Steal Rate

What do Michigan guard Eli Brooks and 60-year-old legendary Russian hockey player Igor Larionov have in common? Both own the nickname “The Professor”. The moniker has started to become associated with Brooks by the program in the last year, and Brooks’ growth into his current role as wise elder statesman has been remarkable.

Brooks was an unheralded three-star prospect coming out of HS, ranked outside the top 200 in the 24/7 composite, and one whose athleticism was questioned by many. After a brief stint as Michigan’s PG in the fall of his freshman season, he vanished to the bench. As a sophomore, he was a low usage bench option who was almost allergic to doing anything with the basketball, averaging just 2.5 PPG in over 12 minutes per night. Through two seasons at Michigan, Brooks was a career 27% three-point shooter.

Since then, Brooks has completely transformed his game, emerging as a rock-solid starter, an above average B1G guard who is so important to the program that Juwan Howard convinced him to return for a fifth campaign. What makes Brooks a lynchpin? In some ways, you can best measure the impact of a player not by what he does on the floor, but what happens when he’s not on the floor:

Michigan’s offense fell through the floor without Brooks out there. Part of that was FT% luck, but the drop in 3PT% and PPP are big enough to show that something is going on. Not to mention that the defense got worse, too. The anecdotal eye test backed it up: when Brooks got dinged up against Michigan State, Michigan unraveled. When Brooks had to miss the road game at Minnesota, Michigan’s performance was reminiscent of the Hindenburg going down. The 2020-21 Michigan Wolverines needed Eli Brooks on the floor to function properly, and that’s as big of a testament to why Juwan wanted him back as you can come up with.

Part of the reason he’s so critical is that Brooks does so many things well. As an offensive player, Brooks is the perfect complementary piece, a 117 ORtg but not needing to use up too many offensive possessions to be an effective scorer. Brooks has shot between 36 and 40% from three on high volume in back-to-back seasons, helping to space the floor and be a recipient of good ball movement. His pull up jumper in the mid-range is effective as well, and though some Michigan fans (your author included) criticized Brooks early in his career for a tendency to pump fake out of a good shot into a bad one, in recent years The Professor has mastered the art of the pump fake to set up better jumpers in the midrange for himself. The array of shooting talent he possesses from beyond the arc and in the midrange puts him in the 85th percentile in the spot up game, per Synergy, firing at 1.11 PPP:

Brooks is at his best offensively as a spot up shooter because finishing at the rim is not a strength. He lacks the explosiveness off the dribble and the length to penetrate inside and score at the rack, often relying on a floater in those situations that is not quite Devante’ Jones caliber. Transition is a big part of Brooks’ game offensively, attempting the most FGs in transition of any Michigan player last season, and it included a pair of ELI DUNKS, previously thought to be unfathomable:

Okay. So ...

These ✌? DUNKS by Eli Brooks are just incredible. However we can’t decide which is better?

The floor is yours 〽️? nation#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/U8EYUt2Mcy

— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) January 4, 2021

Besides spot up shooting and transition offense, the last major attribute that Brooks gives you on offense is the ability to play the PG position. He has not been a PG much in his Michigan career, thanks to names like Zavier Simpson and Mike Smith, but he’s a decent enough passer and ballhandler in the PNR that you could get by with him at the one and be fine. That’s valuable versatility and Juwan may go to it when Devante’ Jones is not on the floor.

Defensively, Brooks is a rock. He showed off his ability to hound the ballcarrier in forcing Penn State’s Sam Sessons into a very poor shot with the game on the line early last season:

And then he showcased his prowess in zone defense a month after that against Wisconsin:

Brooks’ 2.5% steal rate in conference play ranked 10th in the B1G, the second-best on the team last year (trailing only Franz Wagner).

There are some vulnerabilities in Brooks’ defense, popping up when he faced taller guards who could shoot over him (Duane Washington), or more burly guards who could back him down (Teddy Allen), but the good far outweighs the weak spots. His performances against Cam Thomas, Marcus Carr, and plenty of other B1G guards last season justify his status as a good defensive player who was a key cog on the league’s best defense last season. With Brooks paired next to Devante’ Jones in the backcourt, Michigan should have two plus defenders at the two guard spots who will make life difficult on the opposition.

It’s hard to see where Brooks will improve his game now that he’s 23-years-old with 125 NCAA games under his belt, but Michigan doesn’t need improvement from him. They brought him back because Brooks is a known quantity, and what we know about him is a player that every team in the conference would love to have: an efficient shooter who facilitates offense without sucking up too many possessions, while providing veteran leadership and good defense. Brooks is the only player left on the roster who remembers the 2018 Final Four run, and he’s got B1G Tournament and B1G Regular Season championship rings in his trophy case, in addition to having experienced three trips to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend. That old man experience is immeasurably important in the locker room.

Role: Eli Brooks will see the same role as the last two years, which is starting at the SG position and getting 30-32 minutes per night, most of that at the two but perhaps a bit at the one. How much Brooks plays at PG will probably depend on how far Frankie Collins/Zeb Jackson have come along. Expect him to do all of the things we’ve known to come and love about Eli Brooks this season, and enjoy it.

 

Frankie is young, but he has the face of a veteran [MG Campredon]

Frankie Collins

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’1/185

Recruiting Profile: 4 star, #46 national, #7 PG, Hello post (https://mgoblog.com/content/hoops-hello-frankie-collins)

For those who closely follow Michigan basketball recruiting and watch upcoming recruits’ HS games, Frankie Collins became a cult hero of sorts, one whose star was elevated after he attempted to dunk on #1 overall prospect Chet Holmgren, despite the fact that Collins is a generously listed 6’1” chihuahua and Holmgren is a 7’0” tree. Collins gained a following because he’s an incredibly exciting player, one whose mix of tenacity, leaping ability, and athleticism makes you ask, “what if Zavier Simpson had springs in his shoes?”

As a top 50 player in the 2021 class out of Las Vegas, Collins has been labeled as Michigan’s PG of the Future, perhaps as soon as next year when Jones graduates, but as we know, there is always an adjustment period at the position. How much of Collins’ tantalizing profile we get in year one will determine how much of the floor Collins gets to see. There is room at the reserve PG spot behind Jones for a younger player to step up, but will it be Jackson or Collins… or Eli Brooks shifting over? If Collins can do some of the things that Matt D put in his hello post right away, then it’ll probably be him (emphasis mine):

Collins is at his best as a downhill attacker off the bounce that can score at the rim or find teammates after collapsing the defense. Frankie changes speeds/direction very well with a live dribble, with superb deceleration to create space and keep his primary defender off-balance. Once he gets to the rim, he’s a solid finisher for a prospect of his stature. He’s adept at converting with the off-hand and isn’t afraid to get into the opposing big’s chest to negate shotblocking when jumping off two legs.

While Collins’ scoring ability is impressive on its own merit, his ability as a playmaker for others is exactly what this roster needs. Frankie beats his primary defender at a pretty high clip and displays impressive vision in finding bigs on dumpoffs once the help defense arrives as evidenced by his 24.4 assist % during the 2019 Adidas Gauntlet. That while playing a year up in the 17u division. He fits precision dimes in tight windows for easy buckets and has a unique ability to dish out accurate one-hand passes with his left in order to avoid the extra time associated with gathering the ball with both hands.

Defensively, Collins is likely to defend the opposition’s smallest on-ball guard exclusively. He slides his feet at the point of attack and should be able to stay in front of the average B10 guard. But as we’ve seen with Xavier Simpson, even players with outstanding lateral agility are prone to get blown by or bullied when presented with shiftiness and/or legit size. Inherent physical traits matter, and you can expect Frankie to get picked on a bit in certain matchups.

If he can stay in front of B1G guards, distribute the ball around, and finish at the rack as a freshman, Collins will probably get to see the floor some.

The broad profile as a ball-dominant PG that distributes the ball in isolation and the ball screen and is a solid defender has a lot to like, but whether Collins becomes a good B1G player or a star B1G player may well hinge on his rather questionable three-point shot. Here’s what Matt had to say about that:

Perimeter shotmaking is the biggest question mark for the Las Vegas native. The shot mechanics aren’t great, but not broken by any means. His off-hand placement is on top of the ball rather than on the side, and he doesn’t get a ton of elevation in the lower body either. That said, the shot doesn’t look bad. Frankie gets good arch and there isn’t a ton of extra motion on his shot.  He displays the ability to hit pull-ups from midrange, which isn’t typically a tool for complete non-shooters. Still, the low volume of jumpshots here suggests Collins may need development in that area but the jury is still out.

In a later FBO post, Matt pointed to a cocked elbow as being the issue in Collins’ shot, but he suggested it could be fixable. This was the most important quote from that piece, I think:

Shooting in the low to mid 30s from distance will fully unlock his playmaking ability for others. If he can make the slight adjustment in his mechanics, I think he's closer to being a respectable shooter than most people realize

That’s the key for me: Collins’ athleticism and playmaking ability inside the arc means that he doesn’t need to be a Hawkeye shooter. He just needs to not be in the Zavier Simpson bucket where defenses straight up don’t respect the three and dare him to shoot it. A ~33% clip and Collins is a dynamite player at the PG position. 

Here are some highlights of Collins in HS, to add a visual component here: 

Role: I really don’t know how much Collins will see the floor as a freshman. Jones is going to soak up most all of the minutes at PG and Brooks will soak up all the minutes at SG. Collins isn’t big enough to play a wing position, so he’ll be limited to the scraps at either of those two spots. If he can beat out Zeb Jackson/Zeb moves to wing, then there may be 8-10 minutes per night for Collins at the one or the two. But I also see a scenario where Juwan thinks Collins is only a PG, and only trusts one of his two veterans (Jones and Brooks) to play that position, and so we don’t end up seeing much of Collins. It really depends on how far along Collins is and whether he earns Juwan’s trust. Being a PG in the B1G is not easy as a freshman.

 

Camp Sanderson will add some meat to that frame [MG Campredon]

Kobe Bufkin

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’4/175

Recruiting Profile: 4 Star, #45 national, #4 CG, Hello Post (https://mgoblog.com/content/hoops-hello-kobe-bufkin)

Nestled one spot ahead of Frankie Collins on the 247 Composite recruiting rankings is Kobe Bufkin, the lone in-stater in Michigan’s six man recruiting class. Hailing from Grand Rapids Christian HS, Bufkin was a McDonald’s All-American at the shooting guard position and is the non-five star recruit getting the most preseason hype. The reason for that hype is likely that his profile as a knockdown shooter from the perimeter is something that this team needs and is typically a quick way to find yourself on the floor as an underclassman.

Bufkin rose as the recruiting cycle went along, being a three star to 247 at the time of his commitment but landing inside the top 50 by the end of the cycle. A lot of that had to do with his offensive ability and Bufkin is marketed as a shooter, with all-around offensive upside. Matt (emphasis his this time):

Kobe is outstanding as a traditional catch-and-shoot SG. With one-motion mechanics, a high release point and good size/length, he is able to get his shot off against closeouts with ease. His range already extends out to 28 feet in what is very fluid shot that doesn’t appear to stress him regardless of distance. There is real potential for Bufkin to be a potent shooter for the Wolverines.

Playmaking is also a strong skill facet for the Grand Rapids native. He collapses the opposition with dribble penetration and finds teammates on dumpoffs for easy baskets. Against zone defense, his size allows him to see over the top and hit open windows.

Kobe is a fluid athlete that has some deceptive pop as a leaper. He doesn’t necessarily have great first-step acceleration, but his long strides allow him to get separation in tandem with his footwork and the threat of his pull-up.

In some ways, I get Jordan Poole vibes when reading Bufkin’s scouting reports, but LeVert’s name has been thrown around by some in the scouting community as a comp. An additional reason that the LeVert comparison is used is size. Bufkin did not arrive at Michigan Caris skinny, but he’s thin. Michigan lists him at 6’4, 175 lbs., meaning he’s ~30 lbs. heavier than your author, despite being 10 inches taller. Just look at a few pictures of him on google images, and you can imagine that Jon Sanderson already has a few All You Can Eat Buffets lined up for Kobe Bufkin’s future.

We did get a report from Matt that Bufkin has already put on weight since arriving in Ann Arbor, and that is partially why the buzz about him playing a larger role this season is spreading. The path to Bufkin getting on the floor as a freshman runs through two areas of his game: being able to not get caved in defensively and knocking down his threes. Should Kobe be able to do those two things, a Poole-like freshman season (~10-12 MPG bench shooter) is easy to envision. Defense will not be Bufkin’s strength at the NCAA level, but Matt thinks he should be okay:

Defensively, I don’t necessarily think he moves well enough to defend quicker guards in the B10. I’ll reiterate that for me position designation is determined by the defensive assignment you are most likely to draw. In my opinion, Bufkin is best suited to defend the SF position. A few of the coaching staff members among his final 5 are of that belief as well.

Match him onto the easier assignment at the 2-3, and you’ll probably be alright this upcoming season, especially because his length will make up for some of the lateral agility issues. If he hits 35-40% of his threes, Bufkin is going to see the floor, based on what we’ve been hearing. The exhibition saw Bufkin play quite a bit but was rather quiet in that effort. The physical size questions may make it so that Bufkin comes on much stronger later in the season, once he adjusts physically to college hoops. 

One last note: we learned from Michigan Madness that Bufkin is a skilled dunker. Watch him get UP:

Kobe Bufkin wins the dunk contest at Michigan Madness ?? @kb33zy_04 pic.twitter.com/hOt5Qfanfl

— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) October 22, 2021

Highlights of Bufkin for those interested: 

Role: What I outlined is what I see from Bufkin. If the shot is going in, he should be getting the available backup minutes at the two, given that we have not seen any level of NCAA shooting consistency yet from the other candidates at this position (Jackson and Nuñez). I love Bufkin as a prospect and think he could be a star in year #2 after he adds more weight and becomes more dangerous with the ball in his hands off the dribble. But as a freshman, he seems to be targeted towards an off-ball catch-and-shoot role as a rotational piece.

 

One of last season's decently rare Zeb sightings [MG Campredon]

Zeb Jackson

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 6’5/190

Key Counting Stats: 5.3 MPG, 1.0 PPG, 0.8 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.0 SPG, .192/.154/.571

Key Advanced Stats: 21.1% usage, 61.4 ORtg, 1.6 OR%, 14.2 DR%, 20.3 TORate, 11.6 Assist Rate

Jackson is the only underclassman on this Michigan team to have been recruited by John Beilein, having committed before the old coach departed for his ill-fated tenure in Cleveland. Jackson liked Juwan enough to stick in the class as the other pieces were added around him. His patience was somewhat rewarded, getting fleeting opportunities to play as a freshman last season, but Zeb could never really find much of a rhythm and his brief moments in the rotation were simply reminders of why he was not fit to be in the rotation yet. With a fresh batch of top 50 recruits at the guard and wing positions being added to the roster in the offseason, it may already be getting late early for Zeb and his Michigan career. A big prove-it year awaits.

As you can see from the above statistics, both counting and advanced, it was a grisly year offensively when Jackson got to find the floor. He started his Michigan career 0/9 from three, not seeing one go down until the first round of the NCAAs against Texas Southern, and his moments in the rotation were transient, normally containing one “oh that’s a nice Zeb play” moment alongside a couple of “oof” moments of either out of control play or shots clanging off the iron. His best game of the regular season was against Maryland at Crisler in mid-January, running the point for a few minutes and flicking a nice pass to Davis for an easy bucket:

And then in the postseason he finally made a couple shots when he got an extended look in the first round:

If Jackson had made those sorts of shots all season, he would’ve played more often. Michigan played one of the shortest benches in the NCAA last season, desperately in need of more depth, but were never able to get it from Zeb Jackson due to the offensive inconsistency. 61.4 ORtg on 21% usage speaks for itself.

The good news is that last season is in the past and it’s a clean slate. It’s a massive season for the Maumee native and there are things to like. He’s 6’5” and boasts legitimate athleticism, with the ability to play the 1-3. Jackson was marketed as an off-the-dribble attacker as a prospect with a shot that had some (more muted) questions. We just didn’t see much of any of that last year, outside of the much more boisterous questions surrounding his shot.

Thus, predicting what we see from Zeb Jackson this year is rather difficult. He could be the surprise breakout player, who says “not yet, kiddos” to Bufkin and Collins and seizes a rotational role, cementing himself as a starter of the future. But he could also be frustratingly inconsistent again, seeing himself passed by those two and ending the year in the transfer portal. There’s not really much else to say here other than that there’s a wide range of outcomes and unless you have a crystal ball, your guess is as good as mine.

Role: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. In my head, he starts outside the rotation, just because that’s all of the Zeb we have seen in the NCAA, but it’s entirely conceivable he gets the 8-12 minutes at PG that we marketed Collins for. Or he could get a workload of that amount at the SG or SF spot given his height and wingspan. Or he could be riding the pine again. Who knows?