2021-22 B1G Basketball Season Preview... previously: Season preview podcast, Power Rankings Lower Half, Power Rankings Upper Half, Guards, Wings 

This piece is the last in our series of roster previews, following the guards and wings, which we have already covered previously. Again, the positional designations are decently flexible so the players discussed in this article may play other positions besides the 4/5, but we had to split up the roster into three fragments, and this was the best way to do it. There are four players discussed in this piece, and we start with the big(gest) man first: 

 

Hunter Dickinson

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 7’1”/260

Key Counting Stats: 26.0 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 0.9 APG, 1.4 BPG, .598/.000/.739

Key Advanced Stats: 26.4% usage, 111.0 ORtg, 10.9 OR%, 21.3 DR%, 19.7 TORate, 7.3 Assist rate, 42.5 FTRate, 5.4 Blk%

Dickinson’s freshman season could very well get its own post to chronicle the many twists and turns it contained. You might not remember it well, but HD entered the 2020-21 season on the bench, with real questions about his ability to hang with high level stretch bigs defensively, and how quickly he could move past Austin Davis on the depth chart. The first game was pretty nondescript, but after Dickinson posted 19 points on 6/8 from the floor with four assists in just 25 minutes against Oakland, it was clear that the freshman’s moment as the starting center was coming very soon.

From there Dickinson was Reserve In Name Only for a few games, coming off the bench to begin the contest but getting more minutes than Davis. Then Big Country suffered a plantar fascia injury and Dickinson became the starter and never looked back. Dickinson charged into Big Ten play and was an absolute menace, hanging 26 on Maryland in a New Year’s Eve showcase and then putting up 28 on Minnesota only a couple games later. Good memories:

At this juncture, Dickinson seemed unstoppable. He was shooting an outrageous 73% on his twos, dominating in post ups with his signature lefty hook, crushing the rim as the roll man in the PNR, and using his passing ability to have the game flow through him. It made you wonder “it can’t be this easy, can it?”. Well, if you wondered that, the answer was no, it can’t be this easy.

In his next game out against Wisconsin, Dickinson suddenly saw aggressive double teams from the opponent, who resolved that giving Dickinson no chance to score was the best strategy. It didn't work out so well for the opponents: though HD posted only 8.8 PPG over the next six contests, Michigan kept winning, because his passing allowed Michigan’s deadly three-point gunners to get hordes of uncontested threes. It looked like this:

Dickinson cutting down on the turnovers was a notable development in his game during this period, but it was his defensive growth that most often earned lavish praise from this website. He held Luka Garza, seemingly the kind of big who the athletically-limited Dickinson was doomed to fail against, to 16 points on 6/19 from the field in late February, and then had another great defensive outing against another tricky high-usage big in Trayce Jackson-Davis of Indiana a few days later.

The final stretch of the season was rocky. Frustrating fouls became a story in a dismal offensive showing against Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn and in the second outing against Michigan State as Michigan’s late regular season push fizzled. Dickinson was better in the final five contests comprising the Big Ten Tournament and the NCAA’s, but his offensive numbers declined significantly in the latter half of the season overall.

Despite the challenges that Dickinson encountered after his initial surge, the totality of the season is still pretty spectacular, especially for a freshman in a conference with so many talented post-up bigs. Dickinson posted a 111 ORtg (5th in the conference among high usage players) on 26.4% usage, Michigan’s highest usage player by a significant margin. He finished the season shooting 59.8% from the field and 60.7% from two.

Inside the paint, Dickinson was a menace: he attempted 59.4% of his shots at the rim and shot 74.2% on those shots. His 83.3% FG% on putbacks at the rim were in the 91st percentile, per Synergy. Even outside the paint, Dickinson’s post up ability was lethal, 1.03 PPP on post ups, ranking in the 86th percentile in that metric. His passing ability can break down defenses who decide to double him, and it allows him to be used heavily in Horns sets away from the basket.

And unlike Luka Garza, it wasn’t just all offense. Dickinson was a plus defender, a talented rim protector who was surprisingly switchable on smaller opponents, showcasing that most memorably against D’Mtrik Trice of Wisconsin in February:

In totality you have a destructive offensive player who surpassed expectations defensively and helped Michigan win a B1G title and snare a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That resume landed him 8th in KenPom’s National Player of the Year rankings and makes Dickinson an easy bet to be an All-American as a sophomore. But what does Dickinson need to do to go from a player of the year contender to the player of the year favorite?

To me there are three wild cards that could raise the ceiling of an already immensely successful collegiate player. First, Dickinson needs to be able to post up with the right hand. Dickinson’s reliance on the left hand was at the top of every team’s scouting report on the 7-1 big man by midway through the year, and sooner or later, opponents started sitting on it. The numbers back it up.

Per Synergy, Dickinson turned the left shoulder (meaning he shot with his right hand) on post ups only 5-20% of the time depending on where he was on the court, contrasted with turning the right shoulder between 50 and 70% of the time. That’s a massive disparity, the kind that shows up on scouting reports and causes strategic adjustments, which of course is what happened. Dickinson developing an operational hook with the right hand will, at the very least, remove that bullet from the scouting report and make him an even more difficult player to guard in the post.

Secondly, it remains to be seen how much more physically conditioned Dickinson got over the summer. Michigan has seen considerable athletic/physical leaps from players in the past after they spend a summer with famed strength/conditioning coach Jon Sanderson. While it’s unlikely that a summer at Camp Sanderson will turn Hunter Dickinson into a Bo Jackson-caliber athlete, slapping a little more muscle on his frame could prove useful when going up against the mountain of meat that is Kofi Cockburn. Similarly, slightly improved agility could make Dickinson a bit more dangerous off the dribble and as a defender in space. A big jump in athleticism and physique are not probable for an already old(ish) player like Dickinson (he turns 21 in November) who came into college reasonably developed, but improvements on the margin could pay dividends in big moments.

Third, the big black box of uncertainty is the possibility of Dickinson adding a three-point shot. He attempted a grand total of four threes last season and went o-fer on those shots. We know from anecdotal practice footage and reports that HD has been working on his three-point shot in the offseason, so we’ll see what it looks like to begin the season. Matt D noted when Hunter was a prospect that he had a developing three pointer in his repertoire as a senior in HS, but that mostly went back in the garage last season. Now Dickinson will show how far it has come. My gut tells me it will be like the Teske three-point shot; a gadget play that never really becomes a weapon (Dickinson shot only 40.2% on two-point jumpers last season per Synergy), but I will be happy if I’m proven wrong.

Role: This is the Hunter Dickinson Show now. He came back to school to be The Guy in Ann Arbor, even though he was already Michigan’s highest usage piece last year. Dickinson’s fightin’ words (particularly towards Illinois) are already one of the B1G’s biggest storylines entering this season and watching the clips of Michigan Madness, it’s pretty clear that HD loves his starring role in the spotlight. He’s going to play ~30 minutes per game and may even see his usage tick up slightly, and Michigan’s offense will revolve around him. This is your starting center and an easy bet for 1st team All-B1G + a strong contender for B1G POY. Dickinson’s already a great player… but how much better can he get?

[AFTER THE JUMP: lots of talent and a small-town Minnesota boy]

 

This photo of a Frenchman was taken by a Frenchman [MG Campredon]

Moussa Diabate

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’11”/210

Recruiting Profile: Five-star, #5 PF, #16 overall, Hello Post

Sooooo Michigan’s got a B1G PoY candidate as their starting center and now have a 5 star freshman as their backup center. This is fun.

Moussa Diabate is originally from Paris, born to West African parents living in France, and the family then moved to Florida when Moussa was an early teen. He comes to Michigan by way of the elite IMG Academy, having grown into a prospect that our own Matt D has been salivating about for years. Diabate was Michigan’s second five star in that class, and it was when the lanky big man committed that the Wolverines put the bow on their exceptional 2021 recruiting class that finished the cycle 2nd in the country.

For Diabate, the prospect profile revolves around his athleticism, allowing him to score off the dribble on offense and switch on to pretty much anyone defensively. Here’s some scouting from Matt’s Hello post, emphasis mine:

“Offensively, he displayed great perimeter skill by knocking down multiple triples with good elevation and nice form. His ability to create shots off the bounce from the wing may have been the most impressive aspect of his game though. Moussa was able to blow-by legit high-major wings with dribble penetration before finding teammates with precision dimes in tight spaces for easy layups on multiple occasions. Moussa’s passing/playmaking is outstanding for a big. His vision was approaching guard level in Phoenix.

He also excels as a lob threat as the roll-man in ballscreen action and in transition. His explosive leaping ability off 1 or 2 legs coupled with his 7’1 wingspan make him the ideal dumpoff/vertical threat to opposing defenses. Diabate is going to be more athletic than 98-99% of college bigs, and he’s going to be an electric finisher in Ann Arbor.

While his offensive skillset is certainly potent, the defensive end may very well be where Moussa has the greatest impact. He’s very much a switchable defender with great lateral agility that can keep up with guards for a few dribbles.

He’s also a very good shotblocker based on his quick twitch athleticism and wingspan. He blocks/alters shots at a high level as both a helpside rim protector and closing out shooters on the perimeter. As a rebounder, he has a quick second jump, outjumps the opposition to high-point boards and has a very good motor.”

Is your mouth watering yet?

Diabate offers Michigan some pretty obvious upsides, the most notable being a backup center who is neither undersized (like Johns is) or a defensive disaster (like Davis was). Whether Michigan has Dickinson or Diabate on the floor at the five, the rim should be well protected. The more intriguing question is to what degree those two can play together. Matt is optimistic about the possibility, writing the following in the comments of the Hello post to a reader question:

“Diabate is complimentary and compatible with Dickinson to the extent that he's skilled enough to play the PF spot on offense while being mobile enough to defend a wing on defense”

Diabate’s ability to play off the dribble, and potentially as an outside shooter, in addition to his athleticism as a defender, could make it work. Moreover, if the passing skill that Matt raved about in the longer quote I clipped earlier comes to fruition at the NCAA level, HD and Diabate could mesh in high-low sets. And we can easily project that when Dickinson and Diabate are both out there on defense, the paint will pretty much be a No Fly Zone for any shots near the rim.

The question I find most pivotal to Diabate’s projection in his freshman season is how dangerous he will be as an outside shooter. Anecdotal practice reports and his HS tape suggest that Diabate can be trusted as a midrange jump shooter right away. The exhibition against WSU seemed to point towards that conclusion too. It’s a bit less clear whether or not the three point shot is within the repertoire as a real asset yet. Matt suggested that Diabate’s shot is flat and lacks arch but that the problem could be fixable:

“Diabate's shots are almost all on-line. The question is simply whether there is enough arch to give the shot a chance to go in. This is preferable in relation to other mechanical issues. It's generally easier to fix a release point as opposed to extra motion issues”

If Diabate shoots ~33% from three, he is a strong candidate for B1G 6th Man of the Year. 

One other note from the exhibition: it may take a bit of time for Diabate to fully reign in his skills, as he finished with four turnovers in just over 16 minutes of action. The energy is there, but it could be a choppy few games before he figures out how to smooth it all out and learn when to do what at the NCAA level. 

Moussa highlights from the exhibition, for those interested: 

Role: Diabate should get the ~10 minutes remaining at center that Dickinson doesn’t hoover up, and then should be in line for an additional ~ 10 at the PF position behind Johns, playing alongside Dickinson. Diabate should be a productive piece right away, as you expect a five star to be, scoring, piling up the rebounds, and using that 7’1” wingspan to add in a block or two per night. Don’t expect to get more than one season of Diabate in Ann Arbor before he’s off to the NBA.

 

A lot hinges on Johns' perimeter shot [MG Campredon]

Brandon Johns Jr.

Year: Senior

Height/Weight: 6’8/240

Key Counting Stats: 12.9 MPG, 4.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.5 APG, 0.43 BPG, .527/.368/.795

Key Advanced Stats: 20.5% usage, 109.1 ORtg, 10.1 OR%, 10.7 DR%, 22.4 TORate, 7.0 Assist rate, 48.4 FTRate, 3.2 Blk%

In the aftermath of Michigan’s 2018 national championship game run, John Beilein signed the #11 recruiting class in America. It was a heralded five player group, but just one of them has made it to their senior season at Michigan in a rotational capacity. Iggy Brazdeikis was a one and done, David DeJulius and Colin Castleton were transition cost casualties of the Beilein to Howard move, and Adrian Nuñez has yet to become a usable piece in his NCAA career. That leaves Brandon Johns Jr. as the last man standing of the group, and 2021-22 should be his biggest year.

Johns has had a complicated path to get to his senior season at Michigan, being shuffled back and forth from position to position depending on what Michigan’s roster needed. When the Wolverines were in need of a backup center, either because Castleton had the physique of a twig or because Davis couldn’t hack it defensively, they moved him to the five. When the Wolverines were set at center, they moved him to the wing. The flip flopping at a young age took a toll on Johns Jr. mentally, who often seemed like he didn’t really know what was going on defensively. Losing the head coach who recruited him to Michigan after his freshman season didn’t help, either.

The shuffling and coaching changes set Johns back and even as late in the 2021 campaign as the Ohio State game in February, many were wondering if Johns would ever lock in mentally. Those wondering got their answer when opportunity came knocking after Isaiah Livers’ injury. Johns was elevated into a starting capacity at the PF spot and suddenly seemed to grow into an improved player, engaged defensively and more aggressive offensively. Over the final six games of the season (comprising the BTT and NCAA Tourney), Johns posted a 111 ORtg on high usage, while providing solid defense, more than good enough to be a starting four on a high-level B1G team. With Livers now graduating, the question is whether that version of Brandon Johns is here to stay.

When we talk about the post-Livers version of Johns, we mean a player who was frankly everywhere. Against Maryland in Michigan’s first game of the B1G Tourney, Johns was using his ability to drive to the rim and hunt contact to get to the free throw line. He finished the season with a 48.4 FTRate, which would’ve ranked in the top ten in the conference had he played enough minutes to qualify for KenPom’s ranking in that category. Here’s one such example:

If you keep watching that clip for another minute, you’ll see several more instances of Johns’ brilliance, bringing Michigan back over an electric four minute stretch that your author was lucky enough to witness in person. At 6’8”, 240 and with a decent enough handle to let him attack off the dribble, BJJ can be a very dangerous player when he looks for fouls, and it’s a skill he’s developed well. Even if the whistle doesn’t come, finishing through contact at the rim is a strength of his game:

Not just is Johns effective with the ball in his hands in the offensive end of the court, but he’s a superb offensive rebounder too. His 10.7% OReb rate also would’ve ranked in the top 10 of the conference had he played enough to qualify, and the through line between his ability to finish at the rim, draw fouls, and rebound on the offensive glass is what made him a top 50 recruit to begin with: his size and athleticism. There’s a package of tools here to like, but it wasn’t until the end of last season that we really saw it come together.

Three-point shooting has always been BJJ’s swing skill. If he can shoot the three effectively, he’s got the total package and will help space the floor. Without it his confidence, normally so crucial to Johns' performance in a given game, fizzles and the paint starts to get clogged. Last season, the rising senior shot 36.8% from three, a perfectly acceptable number if it can be sustained over a much higher volume in 2021-22. The higher volume, of course, is the question. Just 20.9% of his shots last season were threes, per Synergy, and his number of average threes attempted per game fell significantly last season, down to just 0.7 per game. If Johns is to be Michigan’s starting PF this season, he will be attempting a lot more threes than that number, given the shooting talent that the team will be replacing between the exits of Smith, Brown, Livers, and Wagner. Can Johns shoot 35-38% from three on a big amount? I can’t tell you, but the answer could decide if Michigan wins the B1G or not.

Because if Johns Jr. is knocking down threes at a respectable rate, opponents have to close out hard, which gives him the ability to do this off the bounce:

One question for BJJ to answer in year #4 at Michigan is the turnovers, which still sat at an alarmingly high 22.4 rate last season. Many times, it seemed that the turnovers were tied to the mental lapses, which often stemmed from the aforementioned confidence problems, and there’s some anecdotal reason to believe it could be related to his playing time. In games where Johns played more than 10 minutes, he was markedly better than in games he played 9 or fewer minutes. Now obviously there’s some degree of causation here (him playing poorly is partially why he didn’t play more than 9 minutes in a given game), but the gap is stark enough, and his improvement once he became a starter post-Livers' injury was noticeable enough, to believe that there’s something here. These are the splits, compiled by Ace after the B1G Tournament when it was an easy split with 12 games in each bucket:

Defensively, Johns has started to get a hang of the power forward position. His wingspan pays real dividends in blocking shots and closing out, and once he became the starter, he started to make more intelligent plays. Here he is smartly reading a lazy pass from NBA top five pick Scottie Barnes of FSU in the Sweet 16 and taking it to the house:

More of that, please. It feels like a pretty safe statement to say that Johns should be at least a good B1G defender at the power forward position this season. With Diabate entering the fold, the need for BJJ to play the five has mostly dissipated, but if necessary, it’s a real option you can feel okay about. His on/off splits last season at center were legitimately good (LINK). That versatility is something that can’t be underestimated in what it gives Juwan Howard, even if it isn’t used much.

Role: After years of sitting behind Charles Matthews and Isaiah Livers, the time is now for Brandon Johns Jr. He’s likely to be Michigan’s starting PF and should be in line to see ~25 minutes at that position, plus maybe a few minutes at the three or the five, which would be the heaviest workload of his career by a significant margin. If he can become plugged in on every night, and shoot 35% from three, that’s an above average player at the PF position. Any progress in limiting turnovers or improving as a passer is an added bonus.

 

Our one photo of Will Tschetter so far has his face obstructed [MG Campredon]

Will Tschetter

Year: Freshman

Height/Weight: 6’8/230

Recruiting Profile: Three Star, #24 PF, #140 overall, Hello Post 

Seeing Tschetter in Michigan’s recruiting class is one of those developments that makes you do a double take to make sure that Juwan Howard is actually the head coach and not John Beilein, because Tschetter fits the mold of a Beilein recruit to a tee. Raw stretch big? Check. White boy from a random small town? Check. WEARING GLASSES AND SHORT SHORTS? Check. (Okay this wasn’t a Beilein trademark, but it still feels like it).

Tschetter was the least heralded recruit of Michigan’s 2021 class, the sixth member who seems to have the least chance of making an impact early in his career. But he he’s an intriguing piece that could pay huge dividends for Howard later in his career, so it’s worth learning more about him.

Tschetter comes to Michigan from Stewartville, Minnesota, which is a suburb of Rochester. His HS career was spent in his hometown, meaning that he has not yet faced high-level competition, unlike Diabate and several other members of this recruiting class. That will probably make the transition to power conference NCAA basketball more difficult. At 6’8”, Tschetter profiles as a power forward who could potentially play the five, but his ability to space and stretch the floor is his biggest asset.

It took Matt D a bit of time to see Tschetter, since he was absent from the Shoe Tour of camps, but here was his scouting in the Hello post:

“He can most definitely knock down shots beyond the arc when his feet are set and he’s relatively open. And that’s a great quality to have from your big. Beyond the obvious points, the mere threat of that shot provides a level of spacing that we sorely lacked at times last season

On the perimeter he handles the ball a bit at the High School level and looks solid with the ability to change speed/direction with a live dribble, but I don’t anticipate that being a big part of his game for Michigan. His off the bounce game in college probably translates to attacking closeouts and 1-2 dribbles from the elbow area.

Physically, there is no question Will is a limited athlete that isn’t likely to be a great defender. Any potential issues can be masked through drop coverage to a certain extent though. He also embraces contact when crashing the glass and is generally solid at box-outs and ball pursuit.

Tschetter is best suited as a big that offers strong position defense against the would-be bullies of the B10. He won’t provide much rim protection and may be susceptible to the occasional blow-by if switched on a guard, but again, drop coverage can hide the lack of agility.”

That gives a very Beilein summary of what we think Tschetter can be: a Wisconsin-like big who will help space the floor and knock down threes out of the pick and pop, but will be limited athletically and may be a liability defensively. Tschetter shot 45% from three in HS and was one of the more productive players in Minnesota HS basketball, but again, it will take time for him to adjust to the Big Ten.

As a result, it’s probably not likely we see a ton of Tschetter as a freshman, but monitoring his development will be notable to see whether he looks to be more on the Cole Bajema track or the Moe Wagner track in terms of long-term, developmental Beilein-like prospects.

Tschetter highlights can be found below: 

Role: Likely not in the rotation. May play in blowout games like Tarleton State, Southern Utah, and Purdue Fort Wayne, but redshirting is also a possibility. Check back in next season.