Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in last week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One, Big Ten Tiers Part Two

Extremely Short Exhibition Preview 

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tfw you've been accused of stealing an NFL team's logo

Michigan vs. Saginaw Valley State, tonight, 7 pm, Crisler Center, BTN+ ($ stream). The Wolverines will win; the intrigue will be in the minutes distribution, what they run, how quickly they run it, and how well they appear to know what they're doing. This has been your exhibition preview.

Position Preview: Point/Combo Guards

The change from John Beilein to Juwan Howard means a change in the position previews. The power forward position is set to closer resemble center than it ever did under Beilein, so those guys are now lumped together.

The composition of this team also dictates the format somewhat. This team has three small guards, a group of lanky wings, a couple power forwards, and some very large dudes. While there's going to be some overlap between groups—a couple of the small guards will get time at the two, but so will the lanky wings, and Colin Castleton will play both the four and the five—their roles should be different. Once Franz Wagner is healthy, Howard can throw out a number of different looks depending on matchups, which players improved the most, how he wants to dictate play, and a number of other factors.

We begin with the three small guards, featuring the heart and soul of the team.

#3 Zavier Simpson

welcome to the terrordome [Campredon]

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 6'0"/190
Key Counting Stats: 33.9 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, 50/31/67 (2P%/3P%/FT%)
Key Advanced Stats: 19.3% usage, 36.4 assist rate, 18.8 turnover rate, 19.3 FT Rate

Zavier Simpson, first and foremost, is arguably the best defensive point guard in the country. He grades out in the 82nd percentile on Synergy, and I don't think their possession categories can quite account for the way Simpson does a little bit of everything. This whole cut-up—entitled "Zavier Simpson Hell"—is pure excellence, but the first possession is mind-boggling:

An example of Simpson's doggishness and precision: while generously listed at six-foot-nothing, he forced opponents into 3-for-10 shooting with six turnovers while only committing three fouls on post-ups, which almost always came when he switched onto a player at least a half-foot taller than him. He's a game-changing defensive presence; when combined with Jon Teske inside, Michigan has a rock-solid foundation to build on.

He's also, in a very strange way, a positive presence on offense. Obligatory:

Final leaderboard (from pbp): pic.twitter.com/JJdPa8C9iU

— Bart T?rvik (@totally_t_bomb) July 16, 2019

Yes, if you somehow missed this last year, the smallest guy on the court added a full-blown Kareem skyhook and turned it into his most effective way to finish around the hoop:

Simpson is also a masterful pick-and-roll player despite his obvious limitations as a shooter. When you only include possessions that end in a shot, he's merely average—Synergy graded him out in the 49th percentile, as he posted an ugly 49.1 eFG% and 25.2% turnover rate on such possessions. When you add in the possessions in which he passed out of the pick-and-roll, however, he leaps into the 94th percentile. That still includes the possessions in which he shot! While much else will look different, there's going to be a constant from last year: the two-man game with Teske will be the basis of the offense.

[Hit THE JUMP for ways X can expand his game, plus two guys who'll try to be effective combo guards.]

Of course, it kinda has to be that way, because Simpson has not posed a threat as an off-ball player. He shot 31% on what were mostly uncontested threes last year; that represented his best career mark. While he improved his well-documented struggles at the free throw line, going from 52% to 67%, even that latter number doesn't portend well for his outside marksmanship. Also not helping: the NCAA is moving to the FIBA three-point line, which is about a foot-and-a-half farther away from the hoop.

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There are a few ways Simpson can improve in a way that opens up more options on offense, not all of which require him to become a better three-point shooter:

Become effective going left. Simpson and Poole may have had a laugh at that anonymous Illinois assistant's expense but the guy wasn't wrong. Simpson shot 5-for-20—comprised of an ugly 5/14 mark at the rim and six missed pull-up threes—when he drove left last year. He rarely went in that direction in the first place, mostly passed out of it when he did, and couldn't find a finishing move remotely as effective as his right-handed hook.

He added that right hook out of nowhere last year, however, and we know one of his recent projects has been a left-handed equivalent (see the 1:15 and 2:00 marks here). Even if he just becomes better at driving lefty layups, though, that'll keep both perimeter and interior defenders from cheating to his right and either cutting off drives or blocking shots. That should help him improve an underwhelming 46.5% mark at the rim in halfcourt (non-transition) possessions last year.

Add a floater. According to Synergy, Simpson went 6-for-21 on shots filed as runners last year. If he didn't have a lane all the way to the basket or an opportunity for the righty hook, he didn't have another way to create a decent shot for himself. We've seen him flash the ability before—this is from two seasons ago:

We saw first-hand with Cassius Winston how much an in-between game can create room for teammates and blow up most schemes used to defend the pick-and-roll. Becoming a threat to pull up can not only add a new scoring dimension but also open up more space at the rim for rolling big men.

Be a semi-viable three-point shooter. Despite what I said above, this isn't totally implausible. Please let this hold true?

Update from @umichbball practice. I was impressed with Xavier Simpson’s shot. Much improved. The arc & accuracy were better. Looks like he moved his release point to the right so it’s directly over his elbow. 31% from 3 from last year will improve.

— Tim McCormick (@TimMcCormick40) October 12, 2019

I'm not waiting with bated breath, but that's out there, and it'd completely change how teams have to defend Simpson on and off the ball. I almost don't want to entertain the possibility because of how much it'd raise the ceiling of the offense.

Get out more in transition. This is where Howard's system could most benefit Simpson. Michigan is going to turn up the tempo significantly from Beilein's plodding teams, and while some of that will come from more quick-hitting sets in the halfcourt, they'll also look to get out on the break. Teske is a skilled passer who could Unseld the team into some quick buckets; Simpson is an implausibly good rebounder for a point guard, which can also help get the team going in a hurry.

Getting out on the break often means you're leaving the big men behind, which is critical for Simpson, who struggles to finish over size. Remember his 46.5% mark at the rim in the halfcourt? That rose to 61.5% in transition.

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Even if he's the same player as last year, Simpson will be one of the better point guards in the country, and he'd be a candidate for first-team all-conference if Winston weren't around. Given how much he added last year and how hard he grinds in the offseason, I expect him to use at least one or two of the things from the list above to become a more effective offensive player. Meanwhile, he'll continue to shut down his point guard counterpart, often in embarrassing ways, and now he's got a grudge to settle against his rival in East Lansing. As many people have learned the hard way, don't bet against X.

#55 Eli Brooks

can Brooks become a consistent offensive threat? [Campredon]

Year: Junior
Height/Weight: 6'1"/185
Key Counting Stats: 12.9 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 1.1 APG, 0.5 TOPG, 46/29/75 (2P%/3P%/FT%)

Especially with Wagner sidelined for a month or so, Eli Brooks could be any number of things for this team. He could lock down the starting two-guard spot as a secondary ballhandler, spot-up shooter, and excellent defender (more on that later). He could be a critical backup at both guard spots. Or he could fall out of the rotation entirely when Wagner returns, perhaps even earlier if a couple sophomores break out (more on one of those later, too).

On a team that should lean on stifling defense, Brooks has a lot going for him. Despite being point guard-sized, Brooks has shown he can guard either backcourt position. This has some sample size issues, and Synergy grades shouldn't be taken as gospel, but some of these numbers are eye-popping: Brooks graded out at M's best defender last season, ranking in the 97th percentile by forcing his opponents to shoot 23-for-79 with 17 turnovers. You may remember that the team had several very, very good defenders. Brooks was right there with them.

There's a "but" coming. But! Brooks has to become a more assertive player on offense, and a better outside shooter, to maintain a big role on this team. He used only 13.4% of possessions when on the floor, and for long stretches of the season he frustratingly passed up open shots. When he shot, he wasn't hitting enough to make defenses respect him: he made 46% of his twos, 29% of his threes, and got to the free throw line for all of four attempts. Only four high-major players who saw at least 30% of their team's minutes since 2008 have posted a lower free throw rate than Brooks's 4.1% last year.

Brooks carries a reputation as a practice player who's yet to carry it all over to games. Every once in a while you catch a glimpse of what Beilein saw when he recruited Brooks. He's a good passer, which is tough to pull off when opponents don't respect your shot. The volume scorer from high school is still in there somewhere, too:

Maybe a more freewheeling system gives Brooks more confidence; that could even allow him to hold onto a starting spot after Wagner returns if Howard decides to use the freshman as a super-sub. If not, Brooks could be usurped by the next guy.

#0 David DeJulius

not lacking in confidence [Campredon]

Year: Sophomore
Height/Weight: 6'0"/190
Key Counting Stats: 3.8 MPG, 14 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 TOs, 5/15 2P, 1/15 3P, 1/6 FT

Yeah, the garbage time numbers were hideous last year for pretty much all of Michigan's freshmen, DeJulius very much included. Given how unstructured most of those possessions were, it's best to ignore them. I'd be pretty shocked if DDJ shot 6.7% from downtown over the course of a full season in the rotation. His high school film, after all, was Basically Senior Derrick Walton. Here's Brian previewing this position group in April:

Things are brighter for DeJulius because he has yet to have his shot at the sophomore leap. He certainly felt more dangerous and capable during his brief run as Simpson's backup, but this did not translate on the statsheet and eventually his playing time regressed to zero meaningful minutes. The assassin who would have single-game highlight reels with 5 off-the-dribble threes as a matter of course…

…did not materialize. DDJ was frequently hesitant and unable to get the requisite separation. His occasional moments—most prominently a tough take to the bucket against Maryland—were too occasional.

We've learned not to write off a Beilein point guard after one year. A great example of why we don't do that graces the top of this post. And lo, DDJ has emerged as a viable gunner in recent scrimmages. The Athletic's Brendan Quinn got the lowdown from the secret scrimmage against Detroit Mercy, in which DDJ scored 21 points on 7-of-8 threes:

DeJulius’ seven made 3s came mostly on spot-up looks against the zone.

“Once he hit a couple, it was lights out,” said one witness.

And, while hitting some bumps, he also got buckets in the open scrimmage. Max Marcovich at UMHoops:

Most of the time [DeJulius] was the best player on the floor — from either side. He ran plenty of pick-and-roll with Castleton and Davis, but also showed an ability to find space against senior Zavier Simpson. He hit three 3-pointers in the game, including the kind of off-the-dribble, step-back threes that were littered throughout his high school tape.

It should be noted, though, that all 17 points came in the two sessions in which DeJulius was not on the same team as Simpson, during which he handled an outsized portion of possession and shot-creation. For the 10 minutes the two joined together in the third session, DeJulius was held scoreless.

There were some turnovers in there, and he'll have to find a way to score when he's playing with Simpson, which will happen more often than not. Still, the early returns this season are encouraging after last year hit the floor of expectations. If he can hit open threes, he's going to have a role on this team as a kickout option and zone-buster; if he can create them for himself out of the pick-and-roll, he'll be Simpson's primary backup and a valuable secondary option alongside him.

Outlook

will talk his talk. [Bryan Fuller]

At the very least, Michigan should get 32-35 minutes a night of great point guard play from Simpson, whose passing and defense more than make up for his limitations as a scorer. With one or two new tricks, he should push for first-team all-conference (alongside Winston, probably not surpassing him) even though voters usually go for lead guards with flashier counting stats. NBA outlook be damned, he's this team's best college player.

Between Brooks and DDJ, Howard should get a solid option to fill the few minutes needed at point guard when Simpson takes a breather. The question is whether one or both of them will get significant playing time at shooting guard, particularly once Wagner heals. Brooks has been the starting two-guard in both scrimmages, though DDJ got run with the first team alongside Simpson for the final third of the open scrimmage, and he's obviously been the featured player of the second unit. The battle for minutes between those two should last well into the season, and there's even a chance both can settle into rotation roles, with Brooks the preferred defensive option and DDJ relied upon for instant offense.

Grade: 4.5/5.