Updated S&P: Michigan 67% to win @ OSU, 98% to win @ MSU
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-michigan-advanced-statistic….
Also #1 in rush and pass defense, of course. ALL THE DEFENSE.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:42 PM ^
Their playoff huh? Great! I'll expect a 38-0 drubbing by Michigan.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:08 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
I feel the same way but I would be much more concerned if they were coming off a bye week. They've been pretty beat up for well over a month now and they seem completely defeated. It would really take a Herculean effort for them to get that turned around in just a few days and muster enough to be competitive. Plus, they just don't have the horses this year. I expect us to put a serious hurtin on whoever is playing QB and I just don't see them having the heart right now to fight back against this defense to make something happen. We may see a few surprises from them early to try to spark something but I don't even think there will be enough people in the crowd to give them the energy that could help. I'm never one to say "never" but I expect we'll be all business Saturday.
October 24th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 9:43 PM ^
October 25th, 2016 at 1:54 AM ^
get why you would think that but would it really matter? If MSU came out and pleyed by far the best they played all year, would they have a shot to beat us? I think this Michigan team is better than any team Dantonio has had, and I know they have had some good ones.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^
Just ask Mork Dinotenio - http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/10/17/9561889/michigan-michigan-state-win-probability
Put your iron jocks on, Men, and go smash all of the percents out of them Saturday!
#GOBLUE
October 24th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^
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October 24th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
What was OSU win probability against PSU last week? It is difficult to take this numbers seriously, when other team is jacked up in their stadium.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:40 PM ^
S&P+ has been fairly bull-ish on PSU all season (ranked in the Top 20 for each of the 2 weeks preceding last week). That was one metric which wasn't "quite as surprised" with the upset as others were.
The 98% probability for U-M over MSU feels about right to me. I get emotion and rivalries and all that. But that only goes so far, and MSU looks fundamentally broken right now. Simply not a good football team.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:27 PM ^
Throw out all the info from past years...and just trust what you've seen this year.
We beat MSU by 27+
We beat OSU by 17+
We look to be getting better every week.
Both lost a crap load of talent, and we were actually better than MSU last year, but they hung around and of course eventually won on the fluke.
OSU is a completely different team than last year and lost so much talent to the NFL. Their young players are very impressive, but just not there yet and will continue to slow down as the season takes its toll - They are playing more snaps than ever asked to before at this level of football.
OSU also benefitted greatly last year from our D-line injuries which I think made the score much worse than it could have been - even though they were clearly the better team even if we were completely healthy.
Just stay healthy
October 24th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
GO BLUE!!
October 24th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^
This has and will be talked about ad nauseum but both Mark Dantonio and Pat Narduzzi have left their mark on the Spartan program and we know that they have always been an extremely dirty program especially when we play them in East Lansing.
Bullough's first quarter in the Maryland games shows he may be playing with some 'roid rage as well (was the reason he was out ever disclosed?) . Who knows how these guys will prepare for this game when they have absolutely nothing to lose by taking cheap shots.
I wouldn't be too surprised if there's even an alteraction before the game starts, to try to get us overly emotional and/or get a key young player kicked out or a cheap shot during the game to try to start a fight and get some of our guys thrown out.
I remember watching the Bumble Bee game in East Lansing and thinking to myself that MSU wasn't going ot be satsified with the win, they were out to serously injure someone (namely Denard Robinson). I can see that happening again and their coaches and fans would salute rather than revile a player who got away with someting.
Of course our coaches are way ahead of this but they have to keep their tempers in check as does JH. The only way I see MSU "winning" on Saturday is by pulling some kind of a stunt.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
Agreed; along with the thumping we give them, this will be the storyline.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
would never let this happen. First guy that gets into a situation that punishes the team for his actions will be sitting for the rest of the game and possibly the next game. The boys know that Harbaugh plays no games and won't be tolerant of any BS from his team. It doesn't matter what MSU tries to do to us, it only matters how we react to it. The guys have been in lock step with Harbaugh all season and will continue to be. These guys understand what it takes to win and will come in laser focused and ready to go.
That being said, you play to win the game, as long as the hits aren't cheap shots, I hope both teams bring it! You don't think Michigan is going to try and punish whoever Staeee starts at QB? There is no punishment for hitting legal and hard, which is what Don Brown and Harbaugh will want them to do!
October 24th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
I'm daydreaming about something like 84-3. Make it so bad that no talented kid would ever want to play there again.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^
He was kicked out in the first half. He plays.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:48 PM ^
I feel much more confident going into Columbus after these past three weekends than I did at the start of the season...They finally look human. And if JT gets hurt, they have no chance.
October 24th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 3:06 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
PSU was given a pretty decent chance according to both S&P+ and ESPN.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
It looks like it was a 74% chance, but with lots of noted potential for PSU to upset based on S&P: http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2016/10/21/13320548/penn-state-ohio-st…
October 24th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
But I hope we put a 60 burger on em.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^
I really want to be in a place where we can come into this game with no concerns and it's just another blowout on the schedule but until I see it for a few years, I don't think I can get comfortable with that. I'm expecting us to take care of business but that concern is always in the back of my head until it's been pushed aside by proof on the field. I'm confident but I'm not unconcerned. I expect it to be fun which is a huge step up over previous years but I'm still waiting for confirmation.
October 24th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^
October 24th, 2016 at 7:10 PM ^
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October 24th, 2016 at 7:58 PM ^
in CFB with 3 wins against the current top 25 team.
I only quickly checked a few of the teams I thought might also but I didn't see any.
Anyone confirm this?