Hokepoints Updates RYPR
Upchurch
Bill Connelly a few years back created a new uberstat for receivers called RYPR (receiving yards/total team plays *Passing S&P+). His description:
Below, you will find a measure that attempts to answer the following questions about a given pass-catcher:
- 1) How much do you produce?
- 2) How important are you to your team's passing game?
- 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important?
- 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense?
The idea was to simply multiply the following four factors together: a player's Yards Per Target, his Target Rate, his team's Passing S&P+, and his team's pass rate. Target Rate x Yards Per Target x Passing S&P+ x Pass Rate = RYPR.
He last updated this in October. So I updated, using data made available by cfbstats.com, and Fremeau's S&P+ team rating. Here's all 1,167 guys with at least 10 targets in 2013:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rkk-xZfImYtSw-RSE2OJKatAayoPbUA_AdFsGSF9J8s/edit?usp=sharing
Let's skip right to Michigan
I went through several iterations trying to match exactly what Connelly had done, so this may not match the results I reported beforehand. Here's the breakdown of Michigan's targets with NCAA averages in parentheses:
Target # | Receiver | RYPR (NCAA avg) | Yards/Tgt | Target Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jeremy Gallon | 178.0 (102.6) | 10 (8.6) | 32% (23%) |
2 | Devin Funchess | 97.0 (68.8) | 8.1 (8.1) | 21% (17%) |
3 | Drew Dileo | 22.6 (49.5) | 5.8 (7.8) | 7% (12%) |
4 | Jake Butt | 30.5 (36.6) | 8.7 (7.7) | 6% (9%) |
5 | Jehu Chesson | 28.7 (27.0) | 9.2 (7.2) | 6% (7%) |
6 | Fitz Toussaint | 26.3 (20.9) | 10.2 (6.7) | 5% (6%) |
7 | Jeremy Jackson | 9.2 (17.1) | 7.1 (7.0) | 2% (5%) |
Funchess's 97.0 was 22nd among teams' second targets though his yards per target were average for No. 2 guys. The max protect stuff in the season's third quarter (Indiana through Nebraska) bore out in the numbers, with that third receiver (Dileo) far under the typical third receiver's usage.
Best Receivers in a Bad B1G
Gallon wasn't the only long term top receiver to graduate last year, and the conference wasn't very deep on receiving talent to begin with. The result is not many wideouts left in-conference to have cracked that 100 (average for a team's best receiver) mark. In 2013 the Big Ten average RYPR for its teams' top three receivers was 69.5, last among major conferences and just ahead of the Sun Belt and Conf USA. When I removed all seniors the Big Ten was behind the MAC (Conference USA was still very worse). Here's the best among those that remain.
Receivers | Team | Tgt | Rec | Yds | YPT | Tgt Rt | 1st Dn% | RYPR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Devin Funchess | Michigan | #2 | 49 | 748 | 8.1 | 24.7% | 36% | 113.6 |
Christian Jones | Northwestern | #2 | 54 | 668 | 8.7 | 21.2% | 52% | 98.1 |
Tony Jones | Northwestern | #1 | 55 | 616 | 7.7 | 22.0% | 39% | 90.5 |
Shane Wynn | Indiana | #3 | 46 | 633 | 9.7 | 14.3% | 35% | 89.0 |
Devin Smith | Ohio State | #2 | 44 | 660 | 9.0 | 20.9% | 34% | 88.7 |
Levern Jacobs | Maryland | #1 | 47 | 633 | 8.8 | 18.2% | 31% | 88.1 |
Stefon Diggs | Maryland | #3 | 34 | 587 | 10.5 | 14.2% | 43% | 81.7 |
DeAngelo Yancey | Purdue | #1 | 32 | 546 | 7.8 | 18.2% | 30% | 78.9 |
Deon Long | Maryland | #5 | 32 | 489 | 8.9 | 13.9% | 36% | 68.0 |
Kenny Bell | Nebraska | #2 | 52 | 577 | 6.6 | 24.5% | 34% | 68.0 |
Maryland has lots of receivers. Northwestern's Joneses were pretty productive, and could be more so in a Trevor Siemian offense. The tight ends:
Tight Ends | Team | Tgt | Rec | Yds | YPT | Tgt Rt | 1st Dn% | RYPR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Kroft | Rutgers | #1 | 43 | 573 | 8.3 | 16.8% | 45% | 72.1 |
Jeff Heuerman | Ohio State | #4 | 26 | 466 | 12.9 | 10.3% | 44% | 62.6 |
Maxx Williams | Minnesota | #2 | 25 | 417 | 10.4 | 15.7% | 50% | 57.1 |
Dan Vitale | Northwestern | #3 | 34 | 382 | 6.7 | 15.7% | 32% | 56.1 |
Justin Sinz | Purdue | #2 | 41 | 340 | 6.2 | 14.3% | 36% | 49.1 |
Jesse James | Penn State | #3 | 25 | 333 | 8.3 | 10.2% | 33% | 39.0 |
Jake Butt | Michigan | #4 | 20 | 235 | 8.7 | 7.3% | 48% | 35.7 |
Remind me to draft Heuerman in the draft-o-snark.
Marylands is schewed by injury, I bet if you look at diggs and longs numbers from just the portion of the season when they were not injured they would be the two best returning wr's in the big ten.
You say; I say?
Thanks, my bad.
Draft Heuerman in the draft-o-snark.
The people want to know
I can get behind this idea.
Northwestern's Joneses were pretty productive, and could be more so in a Trevor Siemian offense.
Michigan has fallen so far we're now struggling to keep up with the Joneses.
I love Devin Funchess and he is my second favorite player behind Jake Ryan. I really miss the 19 jersey though.
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