Elite Eight predictions and keys to the game
First we have the JV game (ha), UConn vs Staee. Unfortunately I feel like Virginia had a much better chance to beat State than UConn does. I don't see UConn being able to match up with Payne and Dawson's physicality down low. Virginia had them on the ropes, but State made just enough plays down the stretch to come out with the W. I think UConn's only chance is for either Napier or Boatright to play the games of their lives. This is definitely possible, especially in MSG, but I unfortunately see State pulling this one out.
Then we have our Michigan Wolverines taking on Kentucky. In basketball, there's really two ways to create extra possessions for your team. One is to get offensive rebounds, which Kentucky is probably going to do. The second is to turn the ball over less than your opponent, which we (hopefully) will do. If those two things are close to even, then it really just comes down to who shoots the ball better. Michigan needs to play very efficiently offensively, and I think we'll be able to. One thing a lot of people aren't talking about is the loss of Cauley Stein's pick and roll defense. I think having a big guy that is skilled at defending the pick and roll is one of the most important factors in being able to contain Michigan's offense. While I haven't seen much of Dakari Johnson play, everything I've read points to him possibly struggling in this area. I think we definitely need to take advatage of this. And also, it will be key for Kentucky to shoot 3-pointers more to their season average (4/14 vs Louisville), and not get hot like they did against Wichita State.
My predictions:
MSU 77, UConn 67
Michigan 73, Kentucky 68
This is a scary game. By far the toughest so far. Kentucky is a gigantic team and loves to attack the paint, but I'll take Beilein over Calipari in a short turnaround any day. Michigan 75-70.
That's it. If Dakari Johnson (or Randle) gets in foul trouble, or Dakari proves a liability at defending the P+R, he will sit and Poythress will come in for him.
At that point, Morgan can guard Randle. Otherwise, Morgan can't, and he is the only guy we have who can do it.
Randle is a nightmare matchup for us with McGary out. We'd be better off against Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, Smart or any of the other lottery picks.
Kentucky fouls like mad in the last minute of the game, but Michigan by 6, BKFinest it.
Liveblog is happening. Mods to your stations at 4:45.
Obviously, this is common sense, but if we can knock down 3's at the rate we've been having so far, it'll be awfully tough for Kentucky to beat us.
This game could really go either way, but I think UK being without Cauley-Stein will be the difference. Kentucky will push us to the brink, but we will do enough to hang on and punch our ticket to a second consecutive Final Four.
I much prefer watching games this way, trying to catch the vibe of others?
Same here. Did the last one at a bar, but staying at home for this one. Got a tv setup out on the deck to enjoy the sun here in Chicago.
I think Michigan is a smarter and more disciplined team than Kentucky. They're certainly more experienced as well. I think those three intangibles mean A LOT deep into the tourney. I also thnk the Michigan kids feel a little bit disrespected. Michigan is a dangerous team today. I wouldn't be surprised if we won this thing by 10 or more points.
obviously need to make open looks as theyve done all year when winning but cant fall in love with jumpers for 8-10 min stretches - versatility makes them so dangerous so need to make sure UK has to cover and fear drives and bigs rolling. robinson needs to attack whatever 4 is covering him as he did early vs tenn and also prove hes a pro level athlete on the glass and D...need a grown man game tonight. limit FT attempts, huge key. and stauskas and levert need to play D and D rebound...cant have one of those games where either guy grabs 0 rebounds. and i think the player of the game might be walton if they win...he has ability to take 6'6" guards off the dribble and create for himself or others and they should use it