Tourney Watch: Michigan Hockey up to #11 in RPI/PWR
After leaping up from #16 to #12 with the rout of #1 Minnesota last night, Michigan crept up another spot to #11 today as Vermont lost in the Hockey East tournament. Fellow bubble team Northeastern also lost in the HE tournament today which knocked them down a few slots as well.
Michigan is now sitting as 3 seed(!) and if they had just swept PSU and held against MSU last weekend we would've been in contention for a 1 seed. RPI is fairly volatile.
Beating PSU this Thursday is an absolute must and beating Wisconsin after that would probably put us in contention for a 2 seed as far-fetched as that seemed coming into this weekend. Just beat PSU and make the tournament
(and yes it looks like the PSU game may overlap with the Wofford game if we get the 7 PM CT slot instead of the 2 PM CT sl)
Rank | Team | RPI | Adj RPI | QWB Adj RPI | W-L-T |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Minnesota | .5905 | .5905 | .5994 | 25-5-6 |
2 | Boston College | .5798 | .5810* | .5892 | 26-7-4 |
3 | Union | .5764 | .5769* | .5810 | 26-6-4 |
4 | Ferris State | .5627 | .5644* | .5651 | 27-9-3 |
5 | Wisconsin | .5561 | .5571* | .5613 | 22-10-2 |
6 | Quinnipiac | .5536 | .5536 | .5584 | 24-8-6 |
7 | Notre Dame | .5494 | .5501* | .5583 | 23-13-2 |
8 | Massachusetts-Lowell | .5505 | .5506* | .5554 | 23-10-4 |
9 | Providence | .5462 | .5469* | .5511 | 21-9-6 |
10 | St. Cloud State | .5447 | .5451* | .5487 | 21-10-5 |
11 | Michigan | .5376 | .5376 | .5422 | 18-12-4 |
12 | Minnesota State | .5386 | .5386 | .5405 | 24-13-1 |
13 | Vermont | .5360 | .5360 | .5396 | 20-14-3 |
14 | North Dakota | .5371 | .5371 | .5388 | 21-12-3 |
15 | Cornell | .5362 | .5362 | .5384 | 17-9-5 |
16 | Colgate | .5312 | .5312 | .5383 | 19-12-5 |
17 | Northeastern | .5297 | .5297 | .5361 | 19-14-4 |
18 | New Hampshire | .5248 | .5248 | .5283 | 21-17-1 |
March 16th, 2014 at 10:35 PM ^
The times for the B1G tournament are already set. Michigan plays at 3:00.
Thursday's games will feature (3) @umichhockey vs. (6) @PennStateMHKY at 2 pm CT and (4) @OhioState_MHKY vs. (5) @MSU_Hockey at 7 pm.
— Big Ten Hockey (@B1GHockey) March 16, 2014
March 16th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
Missed that memo
March 16th, 2014 at 10:39 PM ^
March 17th, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
North Dakota lost to a comparable Colorado College team this weekend and saw their RPI drop 5 spots - they're now on the outside looking in.
Another loss to PSU would likely drop us 3-5 spots which would effectively end our season since at the very best, the top 15 are getting in. It's likely to only be the top 12-13 with teams outside of the top 16 taking auto-bids.
Gut feeling -
- Lose to PSU -> Out
- Beat PSU, lose to Wisconsin -> In barely
- Beat PSU & Wisconsin -> In comfortably
March 17th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^
There are 6 autobids for winning your conference available. There is 1 autobid that is guaranteed to not be a team in the top 16 of Pairwise Rankings so this year it's really a top 15 or better as the absolute threshold for having a chance. All 5 other conferences have at least 1 team that is in that top 16 already who could win their conference and not take away an at large.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
The main thing besides rooting for Michigan is to hope that no strange teams win other conference tournaments, which would push Michigan closer to the margin.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^
Gotta factor in the NCAA effect.
When Michigan knows an NCAA bid is on the line, they demolish teams with inferior talent and beat teams that have a better record than them. Whatever the reason be, Red's teams since 2009-10 save 2010-11, meander through the regular season and turn it on in the playoffs and have powered their way through to the NCAA Tournament each year besides last year.
I truly wouldn't be shocked to see Michigan make the championship game. If for some strange reason it isn't against minnesota, I think they'll win. Remember, it's only 3 games. Michigan ran through the playoffs last year without losing a SINGLE GAME until the final.
It would be crazy for UM to make a #2 if they beat Wisconsin, but just win against PSU and start a new streak.
look at all the teams ahead of us, that we beat
BC, Ferrris, split with WIsconsin
we did start like 10-2-1
March 17th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^
No reason we couldn't make the frozen four and win a national title.
Maybe a lot of these teams would beat us in 2 of 3, 4 of 5, or 9 of 10 but you only play a single game. We've indeed beaten Minnesota, BC, Wisconsin, and tied Ferris. Having seen us defeat a North Dakota team 1-0 that should've beat us 6-0, I don't doubt that anything can happen once you're in
March 17th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
Couldn't agree more. That game is Exhibit A for the "anything can happen in a one game contest" mantra. That ND team was stacked.
is very frustrating....they can, hands down, play with and beat any team in the country. However, they can also lose to any team inthe country.
How about we take all the guesswork out of it and win the whole goddamn B1G Tournament? That said, if we lose for the third time in a season to that glorified high school travel club team, I may be officially done with Michigan hockey (not really).
Penn State has been playing Div 1 hockey for two years. TWO YEARS. Go out there and grind them into the ice for crissakes!
It's ludicrous that we have to worry about this or that our season even has to come down to a single game with fucking Penn State.
/rant
March 17th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
And ran a few scenarios and it looks like Michigan will make it if we beat PSU. I even ran a scenario where there are four auto-bids are taken from outside the top 16. (All of Hockey East's final four are locks for the tourney and the ECAC has a two locks and only one of Cornell and Colgate will make it with an auto-bid).
I couldn't find a scenario where Michigan doesn't make it after beating PSU, though it's just a predictor (not sure it's 100% accurate) but in a few of those we are the last at-large in. Needless to say, a loss to PSU ends our season.
Looks like a best case scenario (winning the BTT) gets us in around #8
UML, Providence and Notre Dame are already in even with losses in the semis.
But New Hampshire isn't a lock -- if they win the HE title, they may end up in the top-15 anyway, but they can't end up in the top-15 without winning the title. I'd argue that still counts as "stealing a bid".