Wednesday's Rooting Guide - We're on 11 Brackets addition!
Morning everybody. Holy cow, another night of really exciting games! Much like most of the weekend & Monday, it was a mixed bag for Michigan's chances. We really get a chance to have a say in that tomorrow. But before that, let's look at what happened last night, where Michigan stands, and our rooting interests for today:
- As mentioned, the results last night were mixed. Clemson in particular losing was massive (thanks UVA!) and Texas Tech losing essentially means they likely have to, at a minimum, make the Big 12 final to even have a chance. The last-minute collapse by SDSU against Boise State was a bummer for sure. Hell, even South Carolina gave Mississippi State all it could handle on the road. If you count the Spartan win (which I am here), we went 3-4 in games we were interested in last night.
- Kind of an added bonus game last night, I mentioned to keep an eye on Michigan non-conference opponents. Well, don't look now but Lipscomb is in the A-Sun semi-finals and has a chance for a Quad-2 road win on Thursday. They're inside 150 on the NET rankings now.
- As for Michigan, Kenpom, Torvik, and NET rankings are holding steady (we're back to 55 on the NET rankings today). Kind of an interesting one to keep an eye on, without playing last night, College of Charleston dropped from 51 to 54 last night and are just ahead of us. That will be a team to watch in Colonial Conference tourney this weekend.
- As of their update last night, Bracket Matrix has us on 11 brackets (more than I would have thought to be honest). We should get another update later today.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games because there are some important ones for sure:
- Auburn (19-10, 9-7) at Alabama (25-4, 15-1) - (Bama by 10) - 7pm EST on ESPN2 - Auburn is in a really interesting position. They've now lost 7 of their last 10 games. And they end their regular season at Alabama and home against Tennessee. If they lose both of those games, they're sitting at 19-12 and 9-9. And while they are 37 on the NET rankings, they only have 2 Quad-1 wins. My general feeling is, if Auburn losses both of these final games, they're likely going to be one of the last teams in the tournament heading into the SEC tournament. If they lose that opening game there, yikes! We're rooting for Bama here.
- Pittsburgh (21-8, 14-4) at Notre Dame (10-19, 2-16) - (Pitt by 3.5) - 7pm on ESPNU - So, this one has been the daily debate here lol Here's where I stand (today). Pitt still has a chance to win the ACC regular season. Yes, the ACC is down but there is just no way they would get left out in that scenario. And we are ever so close to Pitt being another Quad-1 win for us. If they lose to ND tonight, I think our rooting interests may change but for tonight, my personal opinion, I think it's in Michigan's best interests for Pitt to win.
- Penn State (17-12, 8-10) at Northwestern (20-9, 11-7) - (NU by 4) - 9pm on BTN - I would argue there are two really important games for Michigan tonight. This is the first one and this one matters for two reasons. Penn State and Michigan are right by each other on most bubble lines. Like us, they have 3 Quad-1 wins. The one-up they have is no Quad 3 or 4 losses. Their last-second loss to Rutgers was a big help, we need that same help from Northwestern tonight. We still have a decent shot to get Northwestern up there for that 2nd Quad-1 win from them as well. Go Cats!
- Utah State (22-7, 11-5) at UNLV (17-11, 6-10) - (Ut. State by 2.5) - 11pm on CBS Sports Network - This is that other really critical game I mentioned. Utah State is right behind Michigan's tail on the Bracket Matrix and right around them on most bubble lines. Interestingly enough, the 9 brackets that have Utah State do not have Michigan. You do the math. Utah State only beat UNLV by 4 points on Utah State's home court back in mid-January so this game isn't impossible by any means. We're big Runnin' Rebel fans.
Not sure if others have noticed but over the last few nights, we've been rooting for a number of underdogs. That's not the case tonight. 3 of the 4 games, the team we want is favored. Let's make it 4-4 on the night and head into a massive game for Michigan tomorrow. Go Blue!
Good stuff. Clemson and TT losing were good for UM's chances; I sort of chalked up Boise as a bid team already so while obviously it would have been nice to see them lose they still have a pretty attractive resume.
Auburn being 2-8 in Quad 1 games and one of those wins being a 1-point win against Northwestern in a tourney feels like a weaker resume than people are giving it credit for but they've always been an SEC team pencilled into the tourney so not a huge surprise. Do think them losing these last two games would be interesting for seeding purposes and absolutely if they close the season with 4 straight losses then watch out.
Pitt has to start getting some love. I agree the ACC is down but they had basically one bad week of basketball where they lost to UM, WVU, and VCU but otherwise they have the look of a team that should be safely in the tourney. Obviously can't trip up against ND before playing Miami. Interestingly enough, ND was a team that finished second if the ACC at 15-5 but were relegated to the play-in game so there's always a chance things could go sideways even if they win out.
NW is unlikely to break the top-30 in NET but if they keep winning it won't hurt UM. Maybe they'll return the favor to Rutgers on the road to end the year.
Still feels like the Mountain West is going to cannibalize itself a bit this year. Utah St, NM, and even Boise can't really afford to take a loss and as you stated Utah St. is in a precarious spot. Boise and USU play to end the year so it wouldn't do a ton of damage to USU to lose that game but definitely isn't optimal, and a loss at UNLV would be terrible.
I do think Michigan has a longer shot to make the tourney than I thought the past couple of days because there's a stickiness to a lot of these seeds and systems that I wasn't expecting. Florida, for example, beat a bad Georgia team by 10 on the road and jumped 5 spots in NET rating even though that's only their 3rd win in February. But for some reason they're sniffing around Michigan even though they're 3-14 in Q1+2 games. Feels like UM is going to have to rely on a vibes vote from the committee and not a team sheet, which is a bit annoying.
Ah well, go Blue.
Go Cats!
Still trying to remain optimistic and hoping that Michigan could move into the NCAA Tournament, even while the odds appear to be stacked against the Wolverines, especially considering the relatively small number of bracketologists (11 as of the update for games through February 28 on The Bracket Matrix) who have Michigan in the NCAA Field.
But then I consider that the disappointment of missing the NCAA Tournament might be tempered by seeing the number of bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix who have Michigan among the First Four Out and thereby getting a one seed and more home games in the NIT. A month ago, before the Wolverines went 6-2 in February to get to 17-12 from 11-10, I didn't feel that way.
NIT?! We have two projected first round picks and a former consensus second team all american on this team and we're supposed to care about the NIT? I wouldn't even be surprised if some of our players think of the NIT like college football players think about mid tier bowl games now and sit out.
No, they would play. Juwan Howard is far from perfect but his players will not quit. I can promise you that.
Yeah, risk of severe injury is far less in bball than football so I would expect them to play. Especially because basketball is also more about skill and development than pure athleticism so you can help yourself more in basketball by continuing to put improvement on tape.
Playing in the NIT may seem like getting an invitation to a bowl game that’s not part of the New Year’s Six, but if Michigan plays in the 2023 NIT, though I’ll be disappointed, I’ll most likely watch the games in which Michigan plays and I’ll root for the Wolverines to win it all.
I don't know whether playing in the NIT would adversely impact the draft prospects for Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin or the professional basketball opportunities that will be available to Hunter Dickinson. Nor do I know whether playing in the NIT guarantees any success for next season, but 2022 NIT champion Xavier is a four seed and runner-up Texas A&M is a seven seed in The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix for the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
I’m a long-time college basketball fan AND a Michigan Wolverines fan (thanks, in large part, to having a child who’s a “Double Wolverine”). I’m old enough to remember when the NIT was considered a major post-season tournament, there were between 12 and 16 teams in the tournament and all the games were played in New York’s Madison Square Garden.
Living in the metropolitan New York City area during those years when there were numerous daily newspapers in NYC and Bill Mazer had one of the first sports talk shows on WNBC Radio (long before Howard Stern got there), I learned to follow the NIT.
In 1967, Southern Illinois, led by tournament MVP Walt Frazier beat St. Peter’s, Duke, Rutgers and Marquette to win the NIT championship and I learned that there are dogs called salukis, Southern Illinois’ nickname. LINK
First off, sending Jayden Epps tons of good, healing energy. Hope he's back on the court in no time.
......and this is potentially pretty big news for our game tomorrow night. Starting PG, averages about 30 mins, 10 points a game.
I hope they take care of Epps.. and rest him until their regular season finale at Purdue on Sunday. And, that he’s 100% when he returns…
Interesting phrasing there. Awkward? Can't help but wonder what happened to the kid. Good vibes his way.
Let's play blind resume:
Team A: Q1: (3-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-0) NET: 38
Team B: Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-0) NET: 44
Are those not extremely close resumes?
Team A is currently an 8 seed on the matrix and Team B is an 11. Seems to me like Team A should be squarely on the bubble.
Answer to come shortly. Stay tuned!
Team A is Providence which just lost a q1 game to drop to 3-7 in q1. If they lose to Seton Hall this weekend, I don't see how they aren't in big trouble. That's an unlikely outcome for a team that just lost its first home game, but they have to be on the bubble.
So Alabama is deciding to play like shit tonight and Pittsburgh is shitting the bed against a 10-19 Notre Dame team. Looks like Michigan will just have to put itself in the tournament by continuing to win.
Looks like we want Pitt to tank and miss the tourney. They’ll probably fall to last four in after this performance.
Yeah at this point I think that’s where we have to lean. They can’t seem to get us that quad 1 win we need so hopefully they just fall out at this point.
Northwestern is an absolute joke. Such a fraud team. Michigan getting absolutely no help on the bubble. 2-1 is barely even 50% to make the tournament at this point