Monday's Rooting Guide - Thank you Hunter Dickinson! - Bubble Edition
Not gonna lie folks, I thought my gig was up there for a few minutes lol But I'm happy to say, Michigan is still on the bubble and absolutely in contention for a spot in the tourney!
Let's start with a recap of yesterday and where Michigan stands entering the day:
- If you recall, outside of Michigan, we only had rooting interests in 3 other games. And let me tell you....Rutgers did us a solid! If you haven't seen that game yet, try & catch some highlights today. Penn State was up 19 points in the 2nd half, at home, and somehow grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. That result had MASSIVE implications for Michigan.
- Honestly, the Northwestern & Cincinnati wins would have been nice but weren't all that critical.
- I was tempted to add the OSU/Illinois game but figured it would be a waste of everyone's time. OSU was 71 on the NET rankings entering yesterday. If they had dropped to 75, our win over them would have moved from Quad-2 to Quad-3. That was actually an important win for the Buckeyes. They moved up to 63 on the NET rankings and should be a solid Quad-2 win for us.
- As for Michigan, our NET ranking didn't move, which actually did surprise me. We're still sitting at 55 but with some chances to move tonight and this week (more to come about that).
- Jerry Palm is one of the major Bracketologists to update this far this morning and he has us as his First Team Out. I'll be sure to post here later after Bracket Matrix makes their update.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games because....there are some critical ones:
- North Carolina (18-11, 10-8) at Florida State (9-20, 7-11) - (UNC by 8) - 7pm EST on ESPN - If you missed FSU's buzzer-beater comeback against Miami on Saturday, it was one of the ages. Let's hope the Seminoles keep the late-season magic going and take down UNC today. This would qualify as a Quad-4 loss for UNC and would be a critical hit for an already light resume.
- Baylor (21-8, 10-6) at Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9) - (Baylor by 1.5) - 9pm on ESPN - Really critical game here. The Cowboys were looking comfortably in the tournament but have lost 4 games in a row. They do have 5 Quad-1 wins, so we really can't afford them to get a 6th. Rooting hard for the Bears here!
- West Virginia (16-13, 5-11) at Iowa State (17-11, 8-8) - (ISU by 5) - 9pm on ESPN2 - Another really important and fascinating game. No way around it, these are two teams going in the wrong direction. WVU has lost 4 of their last 5 games. And while they have 4 Quad-1 wins, their conference record is really going to test the committee's limits for losses. Iowa State has now lost 5 of their last 6 games but with an insane 8 Quad-1 wins, they have zero risk of missing the tournament. We want the Cyclones here.
- Nevada (22-7, 12-4) at Wyoming (8-20, 3-13) - (Nevada by 5.5) - 9pm on CBS Sports Network - So, I would describe this game as a 'nice to have' game. This would qualify as a Quad-3 loss for Nevada, who is currently on the right side of the bubble but not yet safe. A loss to a not great Wyoming team could change that. Let's do this Wyoming!
It's pretty rare we have this many important games on a Monday. In particular that 9pm hour is going to tell us a lot about what Michigan will need to do to keep serve. Hoping for some more Big 12 chaos like we saw on Saturday. Thanks again for all of the kind words & encouragement! Love doing these for our community here! Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 10:37 PM ^
Let's go Clones!!!
February 27th, 2023 at 11:14 PM ^
Wyoming officially did us a solid. Love to see it
February 28th, 2023 at 1:28 AM ^
I'm quite annoyed by these gaudy NET rankings for Mountain West teams, especially after they had a bunch of teams make it last year and get slaughtered.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:21 PM ^
Baylor holds on! Come on Cyclones!!
February 27th, 2023 at 11:34 PM ^
ISU blowing what was basically going to be a great day for UM's bubble chances. Neither of these teams is particularly good but in the Big 12 apparently no team is "bad" even if, as in the case of ISU, they haven't won consecutive games since early January.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:35 PM ^
Well that was a wet fart of a game to end the day. Ah well.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:37 PM ^
Thanks ISU. Way to hand WVU essentially a great win even though, ya know, ISU really isn't even that good. What an abysmal offense.
February 28th, 2023 at 12:20 AM ^
Not a comfortable situation for Iowa State. 8 quad 1 wins is impressive, but there's a very real chance they lose their last regular season game (@Baylor) and then a first round B12 tournament game as well, which based on the current B12 standings would be against ... Baylor
Coming in at 17-14, on a 6 game losing streak, and with a record of 4-12 since Jan 14 might tempt a couple of those committee voters to take a long look at them
February 28th, 2023 at 1:30 AM ^
I will bet my entire life savings and take out a loan against my very soul and bet it all that they will get in, even if they lose out.
February 28th, 2023 at 2:39 AM ^
You make a good case although it's hard to ignore the quality wins. And so yes, in the end, Iowa St won't drop from a 5-seed (the last week of February) to out of the tournament a week and a half later.
February 28th, 2023 at 6:06 AM ^
This is what I hate about the quad stuff, there isn’t enough eye test with a lot of these teams. When a conference is perceived as the top conference all of their teams are going to be high in the net rankings so when they beat each other it’s a quad 1 win. Michigan is on a roll and playing their best basketball the last 8 games and all I keep hearing is 19 wins. Why does Michigan have a magic number when others don’t? Some of these teams won games early on and are sucking right now, Michigan didn’t win early on but is playing really good now.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
You say "perceived" but the reason the Big 12 is considered the best conference is because when play against other conferences was happening Big 12 teams were winning. Just like the Big Ten in hockey with pairwise. The Big 12 earned those net rankings by beating teams from other conferences before playing each other.
Playing well at the end of the year shouldn't matter more than playing well at the beginning of the year. Getting into the tournament is based on an entire season, not a snapshot of the last two weeks of the year. In terms of winning the whole tournament you prefer your team to peak at the right time. In terms of making the tournament there is no reason a game in February should hold more weight than a game in November assuming the teams are healthy at both points.
February 28th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
Exactly. There is no "perception" with the NET rankings. It's an unbiased statistical ranking. Takes the the perception out of it.
So then teams like UNC which aren't very good can actually be seen for who they are (a team that's 1-9 in q1) and not what's on their jerseys.
February 28th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
If we take care of our business, we're in. Although I like the analysis, I don't care for rooting for teams to lose to make it easier for us to get in the tourney. But, the rest of you are welcome to do so. GO BLUE!