Looking ahead to next year for MBB

Submitted by PizzaHaus on

I think it's worth taking a look at where we might be this time next year in basketball. It's pretty sexy.

GR3 is gone, barring some shock. I'm gonna assume Nik stays for the sake of this exercise - god, I hope so. Same for Mitch. He's falling into the 2nd round in most mocks - the combination of his age, medical issues, missing the whole season and generally small sample size of excellence isn't going to play well in a stacked draft like this. I'm pencilling him in for next year as a chance to rebuild his stock, but I guess he could just bolt no matter what.

So: 

Point: Walton. He's clearly pretty talented, and year 2 is when Morris and Burke both made their massive leaps. Could be pretty damn good next year. 

Guard: Stauskas. Already offensive superman, can only get better. 

Guard: Caris. Shows flashes of weirdly impressive penetrate/dish ability. If he can get some more consistency, especially with his shot, hold on to your junk.

Guard/Forward: Irvin. Super talented scorer, should be a lot less freshman-y by next year. Would have started on almost any other Michigan team in the last decade as a freshman.

Center: McGary. Incredible when he's actually on the court.

Spike, Chatman and Donnal/Bielfeldt should all be usable as reserves. 

With all due respect to Trey, that's probably the best combination of talent and experience (not starting a single freshman for the first time in a thousand years, three juniors) we've had in an extremely long time, at least on paper.

That's a conference and national title competitor, I say. MSU might lose 4 of their starters, OSU (FINALLY) loses Craft, etc. Nik and Mitch are the linchpins: if they return, we on. 

Thoughts? 

MGoBoard
Basketball

alum96

January 16th, 2014 at 8:37 AM ^

This is the pleasure of our BB coaching staff .  Unlike some who were complaining about the record early in the year or some losses, I could care less because I see a staff who clearly develops players, not just year over year but within a year.  Seeing what Caris has developed into in 12 months is near astounding.  It also is a staff that unearths some good talent early in their HS years.  Same reason I dont care about losing this or that 1 and done player in the recruiting, because I feel this staff will take the 48th best player or the 72nd and turn him into a heck of a player by his 2nd or 3rd year.   I also am glad the head man saw his staff was not up to snuff after his first few years and made changes, damn the feelings.  So if they are final 4, sweet 16, or out in the first round sometimes those are the breaks but you have a staff and head coach who does almost everything right in both identifying talent and developing it.

These are all things I'd like to see on the football field in the coming years.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82801

Yeezus

January 16th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^

While I think he's rated too low, Chad Ford has GR3 in the 25ish range on his big board.  

If GR3 is being told he's a late 1st round pick, I'm guessing the odds that he comes back for one more year (to play with Mitch, again) is higher than him NOT coming back.  Just my opinion, though.  

Joined: 01/02/2014

MGoPoints: 2437

ontarioblue

January 16th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^

I would be pleasantly surprised if he comes back.  He wants to play in the NBA.  At this point he has probably played himself into the 1st round.  If so, he is gone.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 16574

Ty Butterfield

January 16th, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^

For some reason I think we may not see Mitch play for Michigan again. Next year will be rough if GR III and Stauskas leave.

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: -81685

FloridaWolverine

January 16th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^

Despite the fact that Chatman is only 6'7 200lb, Rivals says he is one of the best rebounding wings in the class, and his toughness would allow him to play the skilled 4 in a small lineup. That being said, I could see him playing a Zak Irvin type roll next year (with a different playing style though). In my opinion, if only GR3 leaves, we will have a very dangerous team. If Mitch leaves, still a great team but someone will need to step up at the 5 along with Horford.

Joined: 08/15/2010

MGoPoints: 32

MGoLogan

January 16th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^

If everyone ended up staying, I believe UM would certainly be a top 5 team next year.  I don't see a scenario where everyone stays but I also don't see a scenario where we lose several players early.  I think the only one that leaves early will be Glenn.  I think DJ Wilson and Ricky Doyle (and Austin Hatch if he is able to play) will both redshirt but I see no way outside of injury that Chatman redshirts.  To me he looks like Jalen Rose 2.0.  Assuming Robinson leaves and everyone else stays, I see the lineup and minutes looking like this next year:

PG - Walton (30), Albrecht (10)

SG - Stauskas (30), LeVert (5), Chatman (5)

SF - LeVert (25), Chatman (10), Irvin (5)

PF - Irvin (20), Donnal (10), Chatman (10)

C - McGary (25), Horford (15)

The Big Ten should once again be loaded next year as Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, Purdue, and Indiana should all return the majority of their top players.  MSU will have some huge questions marks as they lose Payne, Dawson, Appling, and most likely Harris.

 

 

Joined: 03/07/2012

MGoPoints: 890

robmorren2

January 16th, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^

Factors for GR3 ... (1) This draft is loaded. He'd probably gain spots in the draft just by waiting until a less-impressive class the following year. (2) If Mitch stays, GR3 might be pushed to stay. Those two are good friends, and that whole class in general seems close. (3) Money. I'm not sure exactly what his relationship is with his father, but I'm assuming he/they have some money. I doubt GR3 is rolling around in a '92 Honda and eating ramen noodles.

Joined: 06/04/2011

MGoPoints: 2486

avid

January 16th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^

For other uninformed folks such as myself, here are some tidbits that provide more insight into the financial incentives to declare or come back for another year (per forbes article from last year):

 

-only first round picks are guaranteed contracts, though early-to-late second round picks "often" are guaranteed contracts

-Rookie contracts start at 2 year deals (with options to renew for a 3rd and 4th year after your first and second years, respectively).  The 30th pick will make upwards of 2 million over those two years, while the 5th pick overall could make upwards of 6 million in the same time.  The difference there is significant in that the 5th pick a year later will make more in his rookie year than the 30th pick from the year prior will have made in his first two years combined

 

Based on this info, it might not be a given that GR3 and especially Stauskas go pro, as they could dramatically increase their salaries depending on where they might be picked in this year's draft vs next year.  McGary might want to just get to the NBA asap if he can get healthy...

 

Joined: 12/13/2013

MGoPoints: 358

robmorren2

January 16th, 2014 at 1:03 PM ^

I think GR3 should look at THJr's path. In my opinion, he improved greatly between years 2 and 3. Also, GR3 has the resources to hire trainers to improve his physique (like he did last off-season), and he has the connections to improve at camps or with summer workout groups (like the Nike Skills Academy). 

Glenn needs to improve his jumper, and work on his ability to create offense for himself. His stock will soar if he excels at either one of those. Otherwise he's just a 6'6"-ish wing player with great athleticism ... there are a lot of those.

Joined: 06/04/2011

MGoPoints: 2486

jsquigg

January 16th, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^

John Belein is a great coach.  As interesting as this subject may be to some, I prefer to "enjoy the ride" this year and not worry about next year until I have to.  I am confident that as long as Coach B is with us, Michigan will be competitive.

Joined: 09/06/2009

MGoPoints: 9654