Is Nebraska Dipping into the B1G Territory for Recruits Now?
Someone suggested I do this, I have some free time, and there were one too many posts about MSU for my liking, even if it is the offseason, so here is a new question: Is Nebraska recruiting the Midwest better after joining the B1G? I think the overall impression is yes, though as we saw, A&M simply started recruiting the plains better, and doesn't seem to be getting kids from SEC states yet, and vice versa. Anyway, here is 2010, before the conference switch:
Lavonte David
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Fort Scott, KSFort Scott C.C.
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Plains |
Jermarcus Hardrick
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Fort Scott, KSFort Scott C.C.
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Plains |
Braylon Heard
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Youngstown, OHCardinal Mooney
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Midwest |
Chase Harper
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Corsicana, TXNavarro J.C.
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Plains |
Brion Carnes
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Bradenton, FLManatee
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Corey Cooper
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Maywood, ILProviso East
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Midwest |
Chase Rome
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Columbia, MORock Bridge
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Plains |
Andrew Rodriguez
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Aurora, NEAurora
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Plains |
Donovan Vestal
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Arlington, TXBowie
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Plains |
Mike Moudy
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Castle Rock, CODouglas County
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Plains |
Quincy Enunwa
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Moreno Valley, CARancho Verde
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Kenny Bell
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Boulder, COFairview
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Plains |
Ciante Evans
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Arlington, TXJuan Seguin
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Plains |
Harvey Jackson
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Missouri City, TXHightower
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Plains |
Joshua Mitchell
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Corona, CAEleanor Roosevelt
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Jay Guy
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Aldine, TXEisenhower
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Walker Ashburn
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River Ridge, LAJohn Curtis
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Tobi Okuyemi
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Plymouth, MNWayzata
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Midwest |
Tyler Evans
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Waverly, NEWaverly
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Plains |
Bronson Marsh
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Omaha, NEMillard South
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Plains |
Jake Cotton
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Lincoln, NESoutheast
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Plains |
Stanley Jean-Baptiste
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Fort Scott, KSFort Scott C.C.
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Plains |
3 kids from traditional B1G territory, 14 from the old Big 12, 22 kids total
2011:
Aaron Green
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San Antonio, TXJames Madison
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Plains |
Tyler Moore
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Clearwater, FLCountryside
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Ryan Klachko
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Springfield, ILSacred Heart Griffin
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Midwest |
Todd Peat Jr.
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Tempe, AZCorona Del Sol
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Charles Jackson
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Klein, TXKlein Collins
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Plains |
Jamal Turner
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Arlington, TXSam Houston
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Plains |
Zach Sterup
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Hastings, NEHastings St Cecilia
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Plains |
Bubba Starling
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Gardner, KSGardner Edgerton
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Plains |
Daimion Stafford
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Rancho Cucamonga, CAChaffey C.C.
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David Santos
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Klein, TXKlein Collins
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Plains |
Ryne Reeves
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Crete, NECrete
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Plains |
Joseph Carter
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Rancho Cucamonga, CAChaffey C.C.
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Ameer Abdullah
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Homewood, ALHomewood
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Kevin Williams
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Holland, OHSpringfield
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Midwest |
Max Pirman
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Orrville, OHOrrville
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Midwest |
Taariq Allen
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Weston, MARivers School
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Givens Mordi Price
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Houston, TXAlief Taylor
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Plains |
Daniel Davie
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Beatrice, NEBeatrice
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Plains |
Mauro Bondi
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Boca Raton, FLWest Boca Raton
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David Sutton
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Lincoln, NESoutheast
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Plains |
3 from the B1G territory, 10 from the old Big 12 territory, 20 kids total.
2012:
Mohammed Seisay
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Thatcher, AZEastern Arizona J.C.
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Greg McMullen
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Akron, OHHoban
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Midwest |
Zaire Anderson
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Riverside, CARiverside C.C.
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Jordan Westerkamp
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Lombard, ILMontini
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Midwest |
Paul Thurston
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Arvada, COArvada West
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Plains |
Alonzo Moore
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Winnfield, LAWinnfield Senior
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Imani Cross
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Gainesville, GANorth Hall
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Tommy Armstrong
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Cibolo, TXSteele
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Plains |
Jared Afalava
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South Jordan, UTBingham
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Vincent Valentine
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Edwardsville, ILEdwardsville
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Midwest |
Avery Moss
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Tempe, AZCorona Del Sol
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Michael Rose
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Kansas City, MORockhurst
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Plains |
LeRoy Alexander
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Toledo, OHWhitmer
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Midwest |
Aaron Curry
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Keller, TXFossil Ridge
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Plains |
Thomas Brown
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Gardena, CAJunipero Serra
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Sam Cotton
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Lincoln, NESoutheast
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Plains |
Corey Whitaker
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Murrieta, CAVista Murrieta
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4 from the Midwest, 5 from the Plains, 17 kids total
2013:
Terrell Newby
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West Hills, CAChaminade
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Josh Banderas
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Lincoln, NELincoln Southwest
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Plains |
Adam Taylor
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Katy, TXKaty
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Plains |
Marcus Newby
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North Potomac, MDQuince Orchard
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Randy Gregory
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Yuma, AZArizona Western C.C.
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Nathan Gerry
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Sioux Falls, SDWashington
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Plains |
David Knevel
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Brantford, OntarioPauline Johnson Collegiate
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Matt Finnin
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Glen Ellyn, ILCollege of DuPage
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Midwest |
Zach Hannon
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Kansas City, MORockhurst
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Plains |
Johnny Stanton
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Rancho Santa Margarita, CASanta Margarita Catholic
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Maliek Collins
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Kansas City, MOCenter
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Plains |
Tre'vell Dixon
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Baldwin, LAWest St Mary School
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A.J. Natter
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Milton, WIMilton
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Midwest |
Dimarya Mixon
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Mesquite, TXWest Mesquite
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Plains |
Courtney Love
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Youngstown, OHCardinal Mooney
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Midwest |
Kevin Gladney
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Akron, OHFirestone Senior
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Midwest |
Kevin Maurice
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Orlando, FLFreedom
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Cethan Carter
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Metairie, LARummel
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Boaz Joseph
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Weston, FLCypress Bay
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Greg Hart
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Dayton, OHArchbishop Alter
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Midwest |
Chongo Kondolo
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Fresno, CAFresno City C.C.
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Dwayne Johnson
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Houston, TXBellaire
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Plains |
Ernest Suttles
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Tampa, FLGaither
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Drake Martinez
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Laguna Beach, CALaguna Beach
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Gabriel Miller
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Mishawaka, INPenn
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Midwest |
6 from the Midwest, 7 from the Plains, 25 total
So, as we can see, Nebraska went from a little over 10% from the Midwest before switching, and is up to about 25% now, which makes sense now that they play in this area a lot more, and are starting to recruit more heavily there. Obviously, there were not a ton of kids in Nebraska to begin with, so the effect on the rest of the conference would be be less about us getting more kids from that area. It also means getting kids from the Plains is harder for them, as about 2/3 of their early classes were Plains kids, and it's down to maybe 1/4 now. Again, this makes sense, as they are getting less exposure now in that region and playing less games close to kids there.
So, that's all about what we would expect. However, for a little baseless speculation and a possible preview of a future diary, it seems that they are still having a hard time getting the best Midwestern kids, as those will still get snapped up by Michigan and Ohio, and even the slightly lower B1G East programs might offer a better package because at least the kids are closer to home. While they had that issue with Texas kids as well, with the new divisions, they will be playing fewer games against the Eastern powers, and thus even less exposure in that area. While Nebraska is the premier program in its area, there just aren't that many players there, and they don't seem to be having much luck. Basically, I am saying it seems Nebraska will have a hard time getting good players out of its old stomping grounds, and Texas is getting harder for them to recruit if they don't play teams there, and the Midwest as it is traditionally conceived is still far away for most recruits who might otherwise consider Nebraska, so in future years they might have a really hard time putting together a good class.
Tom Osborne had only one worry about joining the Big Ten, and that was not being able to recruit Texas as well. Unfortunately, they really need to get a dynamite coach who can recruit and coach.
Nebraska should make it a point to schedule games against Texas teams so they can hold on to there. I think if this decline conincides with Texas A&M which won't alst forever.
As much as losing Texas hurts them, it's a little crazy how much losing the rest of the Big12 North hurts them. It makes sense considering that they lost annual matchups with the two large cities of Missouri - but it's just not something I really thought about. That being said, they will now be everpresent in Illinois, which should be just as good for them as Missouri was, and while the Texas recruits are dropping in number, they still had to get UT's, OU's and A&M's scraps from that state I imagine - not all that different from getting leftovers from Ohio, PA, and the less talent-rich Michigan, right? They've got just as much exposure in those states as they did in Texas (opposite division of same conference)?
Great minds and all that, I had spare time (I don't now) and a similar idea last year and also created a diary about Nebraska's recruiting. As you say, Nebraska does seem to be focusing more on the Midwest than ever before. Here's a link to the diary I did last year:
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/nebraska-recruiting-michigan-and-rest-b1g
This is interesting stuff and I have a couple follow up questions.
You say that getting kids from the plains is getting harder for Nebraska, but it simply follows that getting more kids from the midwest means getting fewer from the plains. so without looking at the change in the ratings of the midwestern and plains kids respectively after nebraska joined the B1G. that would tell you if they are having a tougher time signing plains kids or simply replacing them with higher quality midwestern recruits.
Also, I think future years will actually be better for nebraska in midwest recruiting. high school players right now don't see nebraska as a traditional B1G opponent. but guys in middle school and younger will think of nebraska as part of the neighborhood and naturally be more interested.
just like they did under Osborne (Tommie Frazier, FL; Lawrence Phillips, CA). You'll notice a lot from those two states as well, especially in CA. A lot of parents feel comfortable sending their kids to Nebraska because they feel like they'll stay out of trouble there.
We've historically overperformed on the field compared to our recruiting ranking, even in our monster decade of the 90's. Typically, we've been between 15th and 25th. Pelini is averaging 24th.
See this link for details on the above:
http://hailvarsity.com/2013/01/a-brief-history-of-husker-recruiting-rankings-1987-2012/
Nebraska has always recruited nationally, since we don't have a home base to draw from. The focus has varied, whether it be California, New Jersey, Texas, etc. Now we're drawing more heavily from the B1G states.
Bottom line, despite recruiting handicaps vs Michigan and OSU, Nebraska always has competed quite well--look at the W/L since the sixties, or break it down by decade - and there's no reason to think that will change.
How important was TX and OK recruiting historically for Nebraska? Is it overstated, or has NU indeed lost some footing in a vital area?
But one state's never been the key.
Don't know if I'd say we lost our footing in Texas. It's natural that we'd dip a bit there now and pick up in B1G territory. Last three years we've had 11 from Texas and 15 from the B1G. But in 2006, a year we played for the XII Title, we had 1 TX recruit. Like I said, certain states and regions ebb and flow, but that's part of the deal when you cast your net so wide.
I do think, as others have posted, that the trend towards early signing is Nebraska's latest recruiting challenge. But we've always managed to deal with our disadvantages. Still lots of really good players that want to play here.
I think the difference will be Osborne's coaching ability vs Pelini's. Tom Osborne was amazing at coaching up the talent he had, I have yet to see that from Pelini. Nebraska has great history, but currently I can't see a sustained run of B1G championship game appearances unless the West is as poor as it seems. Certainly anything is possible but I could never picture a Nebraska team with as poor a defense as they had last year.
couldn't still have very good seasons. As others have said, even when they were extremely nationally successful, it wasn't based on having the best recruiting classes. I am mostly saying they seem to be in an in-between period now, in that their ability to recruit Texas is less, as well as other Plains states like Missouri (Kansas and Oklahoma really didn't have that much talent anyway), but they probably don't have as strong a foothold in the Midwest yet as they would like.
The other thing, which is neither here nor there, is that the East division actually has a ton more people than the West division (Michigan+Ohio+Pennsylvania+New Jersey+Maryland= ~45 million people, as opposed to Minnesota+Wisconsin+Nebraska+Illinois+Iowa= ~25 million people), so it's a problem the entire West will have to contend with in the next few years.
As an example, here's the breakdown of the 1971 NC team:
- Nebraska 34
- California 11
- Michigan 6
- Illinois 5
- South Dakota 4
- Pennsylvania 3
- Kansas 3
- Colorado 3
- Iowa 2
- Ohio 2
- Arizona 2
- New Jersey 2
- Wisconsin 2
- Minnesota 2
- Vermont 1
- North Dakota 1
- Texas 1
- Missouri 1
- Wyoming 1
- Wisconsin 1
- Virginia 1
If you include the Dakotas, 64 of 88 players were from what is now the Big Ten. More than half of what I suppose you could consider "national recruits"--not from Nebraska or the Dakotas--were from what is now the Big Ten.
The core of that team was:
- Larry Jacobson, DT, Outland Trophy winner, South Dakota
- Rich Glover, NG, 1st team AA, New Jersey
- Willie Harper, DE, 1st team AA, Ohio
- Jeff Kinney, RB, 1st team AA, Nebraska
- Johnny Rogers, WR, 1st team AA, Nebraska
- Jerry Tagge, QB, 1st team AA, Wisconsin
- Dick Rupert, G, 2nd team AA, California
- Carl Johnson, T, 3rd team AA, Arizona
The all-Americans were three locals, two players from the core of the B1G, and three national recruits well outside their conference footprint. Willie Harper's HS coach at Toledo Scott was a Nebraska alum--this was long before the advent of recruiting rankings but he was probably a five-star. They weren't just getting scraps when they went to Ohio.
John Dutton turned out to be pretty good too; he also was from South Dakota. Other round 1-5 NFL draftees on the team were:
- Monte Johnson, LB, Minnesota
- Bill Olds, RB, Kansas
- Doug Dumler, C, Illinois
- Steve Manstedt, DE, Nebraska
- Daryl White, G, New Jersey
Recruiting was much more local in those days--the point isn't so much the concentration of local Nebraska and Dakota kids (a glance at a Michigan roster from those days shows a whole lot of MI and OH) but that their out-of-area recruiting was focused on Big Ten turf, plus Cal and Arizona.
I get info I didn't know about my own team, or about college football, or something non- sport related that's worth knowing.
Definitely, that was a different era. The game has changed so much. Everybody's on TV, more money, higher stakes, new style of play with different athletes, etc. But in a way it further proves my point: Nebraska figures out a way, and doesn't stay with what worked 40 years ago.
We'll have our new challenges, but we've been excellent too long, and CFB is too highly regarded in Nebraska, to stop us from dealing with the issues as they come up.
One thing to note is that Pelini himself is a Midwest guy (from Ohio) so perhaps he simply doesn't have strong personal ties to Texas. Note that they've landed a few guys from Youngstown, OH, which I believe is Pelini's hometown. Personal connections are big. Note that we didn't do a lot of recruiting in South Florida before we brought in RR, who had estabilshed ties there. Now we have Hoke, a guy with deep Ohio roots, and we're pulling in a ton of recruits from there.
I think Neb is much better suited to benefit from their B10 membership than PSU was for 2 main reasons:
1) As our maize (NTM)-inclined firend pointed out, Neb has historically been more of a national recruiter out of necessity.
2) Relatedly, PSU had much more in-state talent which actually caused M, OSU, MSU and others to raid that talent hot bed of PA instead of what many is State College expected (which was the opposite). Neb doesn't really have any in state advantage, and thus can only gain exposure to the Midwest talent pool.
The only B1G school I can think of that tries to poach from Nebraska is Iowa. There have been several that came from my high school in Omaha (Millard North) that chose to play at Iowa. Granted, many were during the Callahan era when he completely ignored high school football in the state. While Nebraska isn't a hotbed, there are good football players in the state, and they are all dying to play for the Huskers.
They really don't have a base for recruiting. It's going to be hard to sell Ohio, PA or Michigan now because now OSU, Michigan, Penn State and MSU are cross-division and Nebraska won't normally be in those states. Who does Nebraska sell to now? Best bet is Illinois players I'd guess
Conversely, this is going to help Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State a ton with east coast recruiting because 1) we keep the Michigan-Ohio-PA recruiting area AND 2) we acquire NJ, Maryland, and even Virginia. That's huge for us three.
And this may not be directly related, but we are having huge success in VA-MD-NJ lately. Just in the last 2 years we've landed Henry Poggi (MD) and Derrick Green (VA), we have a commitment from Wilton (VA), Jabrill (NJ) and JBB (NJ), and serious interest from Da'Shawn Hand (VA) and even Andrew Brown (#6 overall, VA). Realignment was extremely good for Michigan and Ohio State in terms of recruiting
Pelini is from Ohio, with very strong ties still in the state. He has seen some success recruiting the Youngstown area, and has put an emphasis on recruiting in the rust belt area. One interesting thing to watch is with Nebraska's affordability and (relatively) easy access to Chicago (right down 1-80), the school has seen a large influx of kids from the city and surrounding suburbs. I'm curious to see if that has any influence on student-athletes from that area, seeing as how they have nabbed 3 of them based on your current recruiting classes posted above.
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