August 28th, 2012 at 11:04 PM ^
That's it I guess. We have no chance since Bovada says so.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:26 PM ^
Actually Bovada is suggesting we have about a 15% chance. You put your money down yet?
August 29th, 2012 at 7:55 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 4:01 PM ^
This was basically jamiemac's take, but I'm a little unconvinced that the line would move unless Vegas was unhappy with the bets it was taking. Why suddenly be unhappy with those bets unless you're revising some thoughts about the talent in each game.
Incidentally, I calculated that the line move was what a reasonable guess between the difference in Fitz and Rawls/etc. might produce, given Mathlete's WPA numbers and the change in expected winning percentage that the new line implies. Can't be precise enough to know for sure, of course.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:12 PM ^
them no shot are just providing more bulletin board material/motivation. They proved most people wrong last year going 11-2, hopefully they can do it again on Saturday.
Also, for the record I have no idea who the heck bovada or bodog are.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:09 PM ^
Bovada huh?
Sounds like a brand of toilet scrub brushes.
Maybe that's just me.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:11 PM ^
ugh
the SIAP are back
August 28th, 2012 at 11:14 PM ^
August 28th, 2012 at 11:17 PM ^
The title says it all? Maybe you could translate it for me and Herm, dog.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:25 PM ^
I help. I spraken de bovada. Bovada is say to you: Please, for my money you take.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:57 PM ^
What? You no Michigan like with greater point? Why you no like bovada money?
August 28th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^
That near Bolivia?
August 28th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^
August 28th, 2012 at 11:31 PM ^
August 28th, 2012 at 11:33 PM ^
Or a bunch of sharps put money down on Alabama.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:37 PM ^
A more informative title would be "FREE MONEY".
August 28th, 2012 at 11:48 PM ^
-UM +24
-MSU +3.5 (I know, I know)
-South Carolina +3.5 (@ Vandy)
...free money?
August 28th, 2012 at 11:51 PM ^
Honestly, yes that seems pretty safe. Although it's never a sure thing. Unfortunately if you lost this bet I think it may most likely be Michigan's fault.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:09 AM ^
You got points with MSU and USC?
August 29th, 2012 at 12:26 AM ^
means you get the selected teams +10 points, at a much reduced payout rate.
So, for the bet listed above, you would expect maybe a 1:1 payout (if you're lucky) if all three teams are within ten points of covering the spread.
So the spreads he listed are 10 points more in favor of U-M, MSU, and SCar than they are otherwise.
August 28th, 2012 at 11:48 PM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 1:11 PM ^
I wouldn't have trusted them if they were still caled bodog, but since they've rebranded themselves as bovada, they're totally legit now.