nerdery

Oh man, this is not gonna help our IsoPPP+ [Patrick Barron]

I will get back on the UFR horse soon, promise, but every January/February I like to grab all of the year's play-by-play data, painstakingly repair the damaged bits, and recreate the information that (other) internet nerds used to. This all goes into those stat boxes I make for HTTV, which I've started working on in earnest the last few weeks.

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While I'm at it I thought it might be useful to put together a companion piece to discuss the statistical profile of Michigan and other teams of interest. I also figured I could make it a reference point for those boxes in the future, and also explain some of my decisions.

Feedback is most welcome; I took Stats 404 in college and have been trying to figure out the rest as I go.

Resources:

  • College Football Data (CFBD). A good starting point. Free. You can download tons of raw stuff from them, including play-by-play and drive data. A lot of it's in admittedly rough shape, but they've done the hard part of scouring NCAA box scores.
  • Football Outsiders. Most stuff free. Home of FEI and its NFL equivalent, DVOA. Fremeau's Efficiency Index is based on drive efficiency.
  • 247 Database. Compare against rosters to see who's coming and going.
  • Pro Football Focus. Their grading is suspect but they have all kinds of useful snap data.
  • Bill Connelly. SP+ rankings remain the most predictive of all fancystats.

Also I did a data dump on Tempo.

[Hit THE JUMP for the deep nerding.]

C'mon guys, try to keep up [Patrick Barron]

You know you're a Michigan football geek if you obsess over the weights. The real nerds get into position changes, number changes, and walk-ons. I have updated my big roster file.

Just so you know what you're getting into if you progress any further in this article, I'm going to lead with the thing only I obsess over.

The Curse of B-Will Continues

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THE Brandon Williams with the Devin Gardner* jersey I had just bought for my nephew the night before Gardner switched to 98.

With this roster it's official: no player at Michigan will have managed to wear the #12 for his entire eligibility for two entire decades. The last man to do it is the man above, cornerback Brandon Williams**, who donned it in 1999 as a freshman and wore it through his graduation in 2002. Since then:

  • QB Matt Gutierrez (2002-'05) got Wally Pipp'ed by true freshman Chad Henne in 2004 and transferred to Idaho State.
  • QB David Cone (2006-'08) left with a season of eligibility remaining.
  • CB JT Floyd (2008-'10) switched to #8 for his final two seasons.
  • WR Roy Roundtree (2009-'11) switched to the #21 Legends Jersey as a senior in 2012.
  • QB/WR Devin Gardner (2012) switched to #12 from #7 for the one year he was a wide receiver, then switched to Legends Jersey #98 for the 2013 season opener.
  • LB Allen Gant (2012-'14), too slow for safety and too small for linebacker, might have made a good viper, but graduated and left the program right after Michigan hired Don Brown. Gant did come back a few years later as a grad assistant with the vipers, before moving on to coach DBs at Slippery Rock. He was recently named the defensive coordinator at D-II West Virginia Wesleyan.
  • P Blake O'Neill (2015) was just a one-year rental.
  • QB Alex Malzone (2015-'17) got his degree in 2.5 years and grad transferred to Miami (NNTM)
  • RB Chris Evans (2016-'18, 2020) was THIS CLOSE to breaking the curse—he did the hard thing, which was take a year off from the team to serve penance and make up for a gross academic misconduct that got him booted from it with a year of eligibility remaining. Then he went and switched to #9. Bah!

Linebacker Josh Ross is a redshirt junior, so if he manages to stick around and not change digits through 2021 the curse will finally be broken. If Ross heads to the NFL or something, the next shot is QB Cade McNamara, now a redshirt freshman.

*I am being told by the CLC that Adidas did not make #12 jerseys in the summer of 2013 for the presumptive new starting quarterback, because you're not supposed to profit from amateur athletes.

**Brandon Williams is also the namesake of that play when the opponent muffs a punt and you field it on the run, take it to the endzone, and start celebrating before the refs signal the ball was dead where you touched it for some arcane reason.

[After the JUMP: Freshman numbers and what they have to live up to (according to me, an unathletic fat guy with a home office)]

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THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: It’s Nick Hopwood, our MGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management. We’re going to act like kids in this article but first some seriousness: I had a big health scare recently and I’m talking to Nick now because we were not ready for things to go pear-shaped, and also I have two kids and if everything goes just fine I really wasn’t preparing correctly for their futures.

Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know. And when you’re ready to figure out how you’re going to plan your retirement and pay for your kids’ college when you just got done paying for your own, don’t wait to do something about that.

Legal disclosure in tiny font: Calling Nick our official financial planner is not intended as financial advice; Nick is an advertiser who financially supports MGoBlog. MGoBlog is not responsible for any advice or other communication provided to an investor by any financial advisor, and makes no representations or warranties as to the suitability of any particular financial advisor and/or investment for a specific investor.

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The Question:

An exercise shameless stolen from someone who shamelessly stole it from someone else:

You get to pick three Beilein-era players for your NBA Jam team (two starters, one sub). As a bonus, you get to pick an unlockable player from the pre-Beilein era. For those unfamiliar with NBA Jam, this video should give you an idea of what we’re looking for here—there’s a strong emphasis on athleticism, dunking, outside shooting, blocking, and shoving other players to steal the ball.

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Seth: My favorite part about this topic is that there is a non-zero chance one of our readers can actually reprogram an NBA Jam rom for us.

Alex: There are eight stat categories: speed, 3pt, dunk, pass, power, steal, block, clutch.

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Ace: I’m taking Caris/Stauskas/McGary/Rice, fwiw.

slackbot: Canada on Apple iOS 11.2Fire on Apple iOS 11.2

[ED: We’ve been programming secret auto-replies into our group IM system. If we trip a keyword, slackbot will interject itself. –seth]

David: Wait...is this a thing? I was at lunch.

BiSB: /WAITING FOR PLAYER DAVE. HIT 'A' TO START.

David: Let me plug in my Game Genie first.

Brian: This should be a draft.

Seth: Our readers do love it when we draft fantasy teams.

Ace: …he said, after I got halfway through my writeup.

Brian: Ok never mind.

Alex: I think a draft would be sensible as well.

Sorry, sorry I'm tryi--

Brian: Ace can go first because he's upset.

David: How many ppl are involved?

Ace: I’m always the bad guy.

/giphy diva

ty giphy

David: OH MAN

Seth: I'm sure that has nothing to do with how you sit in your lair and giggle all the time.

Ace: I actually am working in the basement right now.

Alex: I don't really know where I would put this in the post, but would like to mention it: Stella's in Grand Rapids—a whiskey bar with probably the best burgers in the city—has an arcade section with the OG NBA Jam game. It's as great as it sounds. Shout-out to Stella's.

@adam Catch me at Stella's sometime to get that work from the Stockton-Malone Jazz.

Seth: Our house rule was you couldn't take the Jazz.

Alex: That was just the first team that came to mind - I was going to be courteous and let him use the Pistons. I guess I'll go with the Hardaway-Mullin Warriors. I DON'T PLAY WITH THE STACKED TEAMS IN 2K I SWEAR!

Seth: Draft order:

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Seth: I really didn't want to go first damn my eyes.

RULES: It's a snake draft, 3 rounds of Beilein players only, and a fourth round for a secret unlockable character.

BiSB: Then the 4 unlockable players are all in the 4th round Deal?

Seth: YES

Ace: cool

David: fair

BiSB: Seth, Venric Mark is waiting...

[After THE JUMP: HE’S ON FIIIIIIRRRE!]

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