I think this teams gonna be pretty good next year (tourney team) and the next...can't wait to see Morris and Hardaway develop over the off season
this week in unintentionally grim-sounding recruiting headlines
12/18/2010 – Michigan 69, Oakland 51 – 9-2
This doesn't happen so much anymore, but back in the day there was a point in the lifetime of any Windows installation at which the operating system was so loaded with cruft that the only thing to do was take it out back, shoot it in the head, and reinstall. During this process there was always a moment when the computer reminded you in all caps that you were about to shoot it in the head.
The moment when you hit "Y" was always slightly* thrilling. At that time you had to beat your head against extended memory to get Master of Magic to play—there was always a chance your brilliant reinstall plot would end with you banging your head against the case screaming vile things about Bill Gates's parentage. But if things worked out you'd be able to open your word processor without it automatically typing "I hate you and you are stupid."**
Watching this year's basketball team is like sitting in front of a blue screen that asks you if you'd like to format C:. Last offseason John Beilein saw that prompt and hit "Y," and how. This was not entirely voluntary, since DeShawn Sims had run out of eligibility and Manny Harris tolerance for college, but Beilein also lost Anthony Wright and Laval Lucas-Perry to smaller schools in the area—seemingly by his choice, not theirs—and fired his entire coaching staff.
As a result Michigan entered the year without five of the nine players Kenpom had individual stats for last year. Only one—seldom-used freshman Matt Vogrich—used enough possessions to escape the "limited roles" dungeon. Here's what the very bottom of Kenpom's "height and other stuff" shows when you order by average experience:
Anyone who had coached the straggling returners and a couple of redshirt freshmen was out the door as well. An entirely new coaching staff started burning up twitter with exclamation points, installing a man-to-man defense, and trying to get three pointers to fall. The Big Ten was projected to be brutal, with Michigan a speed bump. This was to be a year of banging the head upon the case without even much hope that it would amount to anything.
Eleven games in, Michigan has essentially completed the nonconference schedule. A game against 1-9 Bryant remains and Michigan bizarrely takes on Kansas in early January, but we've gotten all the information we're going to get before Michigan's brutal Welcome To The Big Ten And Kansas stretch (all numbers Kenpom):
That still looks like pain, but after three bludgeonings of okay teams and one stirring comeback against Tommy Amaker's Ivy League favorites the chance Michigan swipes one of those uphill battles is something less than infinitesimal. They'll be worth watching, at least. The stretch after that is littered with teams from 15 to 81, with just two forays back into the top ten after, and with Kenpom wavering between 7-11 and 8-10 for the league record both math and your lying eyes suggest this is an NIT team.
So that's weird. Weirder still is how this is being accomplished: with fierce man to man defense. After shutting down Keith Benson Michigan is now 16th in defense, and we're getting to the point where you can't wave away the results as small sample size against poor competition. UMHoops:
Michigan’s defense held Oakland – a team that has already faced West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, and Tennessee – to their worst offensive output of the season. I’ve been hesitant to believe that Michigan’s defense is the real deal, because making bad teams look terrible only goes so far, but right now there’s no denying that Michigan is playing great defense.
On one particular possession on Saturday, Michigan did so well over 35 seconds that the crowd rose to its feet like the hockey team had just killed off a 5-on-3 power play. With the offense still bombing away from 3 (sixteenth nationally) despite not making any of them (253rd), the primary difference between this year and last year is a switch-mad man-to-man that is totally unlike anything Beilein's ever put on the court before.
That, the complete lack of seniors, and the expectation the team's best player returns. We're about to hit the stretch in the format process where the drive makes horrible noises and bad sectors pop up, but the path from here to the point where our word processor loves us again is far clearer than it was two months ago. This, too, is slightly thrilling.
*(very, very slightly)
**(Things like this actually used to happen. They were called macro viruses and I managed to get one back in the day when I shared a spreadsheet with a lab partner. I don't remember exactly what the cryptic message was, but whenever I opened Word it would type a bunch of stuff, delete it, and then type something else that might have been "ferret" but is probably just me misremembering things.)
The All-Seeing Eye. You know it's a good game when the thing that makes you wince in the second half is when the other team goes on a run to cut the lead from 20 to 10 because the all-seeing Eye of Kenpom will disapprove. Fouling and whatnot pushed Michigan's final margin out to 18, and the Great Eye is pleased—Michigan has run itself from triple digits after the UTEP game to 52nd. They've cleared Penn State and Iowa and are in a virtual dead heat with #50 Northwestern, #51 Minnesota, and #54 Indiana for the title of Sixth Best Team In The Big Ten According To Ken Pomeroy.
As far as tourney resumes go, Michigan is clearly behind Minnesota and their wins over UNC and WVU but well ahead of Northwestern (one decent win against GT and that's all) and Indiana (best win over Wright State). If the Big Ten is destined for seven bids, the last one seems up for grabs with Michigan in the conversation. I don't think the BT is going to get seven mostly because none of the three teams after Minnesota has a nonconference win that would cause the committee to sit up and notice, but Michigan could be vaguely on the bubble late this year.
Put this in your pocket. Illinois suffered a demoralizing loss to their version of Oakland, barfing up a 57-54 stinker against Illinois-Chicago. The difference is UIC isn't secretly pretty good—they're 5-7 and have already lost to Akron, Illinois State, Central Michigan, and other less than awesome teams. Here's a reason why:
When UIC took the 1-3-1 zone against us, we looked lost, and since we were unable to shoot ourselves out of it, we were flailing.
Well, then. Michigan plays the Illini only once and that's in the middle of February, so maybe this won't have a huge impact. But if Michigan pulls the 1-3-1 out against Illinois remember this post.
(Side note: Central Michigan is completely awful despite having what must be the most talented player in the MAC. Trey Zeigler and company are 2-8 and just got obliterated by Detroit. This is depressing but from the Zeiglers' perspective the only thing keeping dad around is the presence of his son so the decision makes sense.)
Doubling down. Michigan doubled Benson the instant he got the ball, which was new. They hadn't helped out their center all year even when Harvard's counterpart was tearing Morgan up; in this game they forced turnovers and kickouts from Benson all day. Morgan held up pretty well with the help.
Infectious coaching. Beilein must have gotten a tiny thrill after Jon Horford gave up an and-one to Benson in the first half when both Zack Novak and Darius Morris went over to him to demonstrate what he did wrong on the play. Novak even provided helpful "arms straight up" versus "whatever you were doing, freshman" pantomimes.
I know how you feel. The UMHoops game preview said "expect a lot more zone" and I thought "that's a really good thing to put in the preview because it's probably going to be true" and then the only zone we saw was a single possession of 1-3-1 at the end of the first half.
How Darius Morris makes the defense go. Thanks to their huge point guard, Michigan's perimeter rotation of Morris, Novak, Douglass, Hardaway, and Vogrich is all about the same size, which allows them to switch relentlessly on all screens, which goes a long way towards making up for a lack of quickness from the pastier guys in the rotation, which means teams get few opportunities to drive the lane because there's always a dude right in front of them.
Michigan's defense is now Wisconsin's: built on never fouling you, never blocking your shots, never stealing the ball, but forcing you into a wide array of not-very-good shots. Michigan is 10th in three point D, 57th in two point D, 11th in FTA/FGA, 14th in eFG%, and well down the list when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting blocks. Instead of leaving their feet they get in spots to take charges and get their hands in the air.
It's the exact opposite of the 1-3-1, which might make the 1-3-1 pretty effective if they 1) figure out how to use it, and 2) deploy it as a change up.
UMHoops game recap. Beilein on guarding Benson. The Wolverine Blog talks about the defense. Morgan fluff from the News. Five Key Plays from UMHoops features this assist, which wasn't key but it was awesome:
There is a shaky but extant torrent.
I think this teams gonna be pretty good next year (tourney team) and the next...can't wait to see Morris and Hardaway develop over the off season
i say this as someone with the highest of man crushes on darius morris - he will get better, but the total transformation that he saw ususally take place in most players between freshman and sophomore year. i'm definitely looking forward to seeing hardaway next year, and know that morris will get better, but he's playing at a really high level now and i don't think we'll see another jump quite as large as this one.
This was not entirely voluntary, since DeShawn Sims had run out of eligibility and Manny Harris tolerance for college, but Beilein also lost Anthony Wright and Laval Lucas-Perry to smaller schools in the area—seemingly by his choice, not theirs—and fired his entire coaching staff.
I hadn't heard this, due to my only passing interest in college basketball. However, I see this as good news in a not-completely-relevant-but-fun-to-think-about kind of way.
Beilein: unhappy with team performance. Fires coaching staff. Defense improves dramatically the following year, albeit against non-conference competition (slight buzz kill).
Rodriguez: unhappy with team performance. Fires (relevant, defensive) coaching staff. Defense to improve dramatically next year? Hopefully in Big Ten and non-con sched?
Mike Jackson went to ... Purdue? and two coaches were let go.
Really the only reason Jackson was around in the first place was to keep Manny around. Jackson had already accepted a position somewhere in the MVC (I think) until Beilein got him back in the fold in order to keep Manny.
I've done it a handful of times and there always was a bit of a thrill ... not knowing whether the computer would turn into a total brick or everything would go just right and it would be like getting a new machine. Only thing I'd add in this analogy ... this is like reformatting the harddrive and then loading a new upgraded OS. I don't know which version of M Hoops this is, but it's brand spanking new, and it appears to maximize all the components.
I am very excited about this years bb team. They actually play as a team rather than the Manny Harris show. Which with coach B's system is a big improvement. I think Michigan is in a position to jump up and bite some teams in the Big Ten. A upset of Sparty would make for a great late Christmas gift.
oh my god a 6gb hard drive.
do those even exist anymore?
They call them thumb drives now.
My desktop computer freshman year in Ann Arbor had a 40MB hard drive, a meg of RAM, and a 33MHz 286 processor.
That was an upgrade from the fam's 1985 vintage IBM PC AT, which had 512k of RAM and a 20MB HD (I believe it was a 16MHz processor).
I am enjoying watching this team play. There will probably be games where shots don't fall, and a better team beats us, but there will hopefully be some good surprises, too. Seeing Darius turn into a good point guard is a wonder to behold.
WOO Master of Magic reference! DOS=HIGH, UMB
come across my twitter feed, I didn't even care what the post was going to be about -- the title made me happy on its own.
Beilein for DC!
You know it's a good game when the thing that makes you wince in the second half is when the other team goes on a run to cut the lead from 20 to 10 because the all-seeing Eye of Kenpom will disapprove.
Oh good, I'm not the only one who does this.
As mentioned, Beilein did not fire his entire staff.
And second, despite dogma and common beliefs and whatnot, Michigan played man-to-man the majority of possessions the last two years. Now, they didn't play it exclusively like they are this year, but still, this is a common misconception that annoys me.
Regarding the defense, it's been really annoying when TV announcers talk about Beilein running the 1-3-1 while commenting on a game in which that defense has been hardly used at all. It's like it doesn't matter what defense he uses from here on out, the first line in Beilein's obituary is certain to mention something about the "unique 1-3-1 zone he ran."
One other thing on the coaches: The changes actually began in the middle of last year when Dunn took his leave of absence and Jeff Mayer was promoted to replace him.
This brought back memories from freshman year when a "virus" being passed around the dorm was a batch file that was basically format c with silent Y to continue. Good stuff.
The team has definitely exceeded my expectations, though I think part of that was my failure to realize that last year's team wasn't really a typical Beilein team. For all the good Harris brought to the team offensively, he was a trainwreck at times on defense and would sometimes go into gunner mode when the situation called for a more subdued playing style. These kids obviously buy into Beilein's approach, and it shows. I doubt they'll beat Kansas, but I could see them sneaking by a Wisconsin or Purdue if they can keep the score down. Definitely a nice surprise, and a welcome reprieve from the constant RR chatter to just enjoy watching a UM team.
<blitz> Start=>Run, type in "command", then type deltree /y c:\*.* <j0e> ok 1 sec, this better not f*** up my pc <blitz> it wont <j0e> omfg, its deleting! <blitz> no, its scanning <j0e> it says deleting *** J0E has quit IRC (Read error: Connect
I have formatted and re-installed Win7 three times in the last week on my new HTPC build. And I still felt that little tingle every time I did it. Fun times :)
I'd really like to see some more people packing into Crisler. Two years ago they made their tourney run and barely anyone was around to see it until the closing weeks of the season. Last year, with heavy expectation, season tickets shot through the roof only to watch the team flounder. Now Crisler has been back to a sparsley populated venue with a compact if not spirited section of the Maize Rage. I hope people notice what this team did in the nonconference is encouraging and show it at the gate come conference stretch.
About a week ago, someone asked Beilein about going almost exclusively man-to-man this year (as opposed to previous years, where there was a mix of Ds) and he said (paraphrasing) "We're so young, I decided to simplify things so we could do one thing well."
This is in direct contrast to our stupid multiple fronts defense we insisted on doing for football this year. RR is as known for the 3-3-5 as Beilein is for the 1-3-1, though both never did those defenses exclusively. However, it's nice to see a coach, after not having much success the previous year, recognizing how to work with a lack of experience and make the best of it. Hopefully, with next year's football defense (which will still be on the young side), a similar lesson can be applied.
It was as recent as this spring, following another sub .500 season with no post season appearance that some were calling for Beilein's head. His system wouldn't work in the BT, he couldn't recruit, his teams didn't rebound and he had to resort to trick zone defenses.
Now, he has more of his type of players, they bought into his system and are playing hard and together as a team. In season FOUR it seems to have come together (same could be said for Harbaugh and Dantonio). Are you watching and listening David Brandon?
You do not get to proclaim that making your pun was "too easy" when it was also completely f'ing terrible. Thank you and have a nice day. -Jon06