james franklin

I haven't done a mailbag since January, so it was about time to take questions from all you fine people. I put a post up on the board late last week soliciting questions and then spent the weekend answering them. There were a lot of good ones and some of the responses got really long, so I decided to break this summer mailbag into two pieces, one today and one tomorrow, answering as many questions as I can.  

We’ve been spoiled with excellent and seasoned kicking and punting for a while now.  What can reasonably be considered “success” in kicking and punting this year? (-milk-n-steak) 

This was the first and most up-voted comment in the thread on the board, so people clearly have a clamoring for special teams talk. Jake Moody and Brad Robbins are out the door, making things very interesting on special teams this fall. As we stand right now, Tommy Doman is the likely punter and Louisville transfer James Turner is the likely kicker, though Adam Samaha could challenge Turner in fall camp. We all know that punting/kicking will very likely be worse this year, but how much worse should the reasonable goal be?. 

Part of the equation with this position is how much specialist play hinges on high leverage moments. Take for example Noah Ruggles, one of the nation's best kickers for several years in a row but who missed the kick that would've put Ohio State over Georgia and thus (likely) handed them a national title. Would anyone in Buckeye-land say that kicking was a "success" last year after that? You can say the same thing with Michigan's 2015 punting, which was very good in the macro view but because of [REDACTED], can you say it was a "success"? 

With all that in mind, I think "success" for kicking is near-perfect precision on FGs inside 40 and extra points. That's been Turner's speciality at Louisville and those are the sort of kicks you expect college kickers to make. PATs in particular have been so automatic for Michigan the last few years it's almost hard to remember Quinn Nordin and his knack for shanking them at the worst possible moments. If Turner (or Samaha) is 1) dead-on on those makeable kicks, 2) is somewhere around the national average on 40+, and 3) doesn't cost Michigan a game with a high leverage miss, that's a comprehensive success for me. 

As for punting, we already got a bit of a glimpse into a less robust punting game after Brad Robbins'(apparent) injury last season, when his play declined considerably late in the year. I wouldn't say he was an outright liability at that point, but it was becoming a worryspot. Thus, there's an obvious place to put the peg for "success" with Tommy Doman: he doesn't have to be as good as healthy Brad Robbins, but needs to be better than injured Brad Robbins. Doman doesn't have to be a Bryce Baringer rocket launcher, but if his punts have the hangtime to limit big returns and have enough distance to be worth it from a field position standpoint (+no high leverage shanks), that's "success" for me. In other words, kicking/punting success doesn't include being a top five specialist tandem again, but they need to be somewhat above average and *consistent* to qualify. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How real is PSU? Recruiting???? 2024????]

Can you believe it? An actual formidable opponent! I know Maryland straddled the line a few weeks back but Penn State is seemingly another level. 5-0 on the season, ranked #10 in the country, a test for the Michigan Wolverines that will tell us a lot about both squads involved. 

The Film: Penn State's schedule so far this season has not been the most difficult, which made choosing a game for this exercise tricky. Ohio and CMU are crossed off for being MAC teams and the Northwestern game is eliminated for the opponent being very bad and also having taken place during a monsoon. That left me with Auburn in week three and Purdue in week one. Neither of these teams are terribly close to Michigan in caliber, and Purdue is a step above Auburn. That led me to choose the Boilers, even though I don't love doing a game that took place a while ago (thankfully PSU has had good injury luck to make this translatable). Additionally, I felt Purdue's defense is a bit more similar to Michigan's given their strong run defense, compared to Auburn, who rank in the bottom third of the FBS in that metric and who got gashed on the ground by the Nittany Lions. 

Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF. 

Sean Clifford will start at QB for Penn State for the fourth straight year against the Michigan Wolverines and is largely the same player he was last season. In the event that he gets injured, true freshman Drew Allar would be next up on the depth chart and he has played in several games this season so far. 

At RB, Penn State has made five star true freshman Nicholas Singleton the starter, averaging an impressive 7.3 yards per carry this season with 5 TDs. Fellow Tr Fr Kaytron Allen is #2 in the RB rotation, while returning veteran Keyvone Lee, who beat out Noah Cain for the job last year, has been demoted to #3. Devyn Ford, who flashed during the COVID year and played some early in the season, is no longer with the program. 

The WRs return two starters, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Those two were second fiddle to Jahan Dotson last season but Washington was already becoming a star himself and has solidified that status this season. Lambert-Smith was the #3 option in 2021 and that has not changed. He was injured early in PSU's game against Northwestern before the bye and it is unclear if he will be ready to go this weekend. Dotson's shoes have been filled by WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley, who was an All-CUSA player in the Hilltoppers' pass-happy offense last season. Tinsley has become the #2 option in the WR room behind Washington. In Lambert-Smith's absence, Harrison Wallace III has gotten on the field but if everyone is healthy, the three main guys will be on the field nearly every snap. 

Penn State entered the season looking for someone to step up at TE and right now Brenton Strange has done that. He was PSU's favorite TE early last season before fading as the year went along. So far, so good in 2022 for Strange, the third leading receiver with 15 catches for 231 yards and a team-high 4 TDs. Part of Strange's success has been injury to his main competitor, Theo Johnson. Johnson has the more impressive recruiting profile but was banged up to start the season, making his season debut in week three and still didn't look fully up to speed. With the bye week behind him, I expect Johnson to be closer to full strength this weekend. Blocking TE Tyler Warren has gotten more snaps than usual with Johnson in and out of the lineup, but he does not have the dynamic receiving ability that Strange and Johnson can flash from time to time. 

The OL has been PSU's Achilles heel on offense for years now. They return just two starters from last year, RT Caedan Wallace and Juice Scruggs, who has slid from G to C. Wallace is still the turnstile he was last year, while Scruggs has done pretty decently moving to a new position. All new starters Landon Tengwall and Sal Wormley at guard have held up alright thus far, but a quality of competition adjustment is likely needed. The same can be said for new LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who appears to be better than the black hole that was Rasheed Walker, but Michigan will be a different beast than what PSU has seen so far. The backup OT is Bryce Effner, sometimes coming on as a 6th OL in beef packages, but he is a trouble spot. Hunter Nourzad, Cornell transfer, is the backup IOL. He got a little bit of play in the game I watched as well but I don't have many notes on him. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Different year, same thing]

Previously: PSU Offense 

Yesterday we looked over the PSU offense, which has had trouble running the football. Today we look over the PSU defense, which has had troubles stopping the run, but the picture overall is rather muddled. They've pitched a shutout against a B1G opponent, yet let Illinois run it down their throat to death in a different week. What is the real Nittany Lions defense? Let's investigate. 

The Film: We're again sticking with the OSU game for this. I know that Ohio State has a vastly superior offense to Michigan (and to just about everyone in America), but our options were limited because of PJ Mustipher's injury, which occurred against Iowa. That leaves us with only the Illinois, Ohio State, and Maryland games as potential usable options, and even though OSU is a better offense than Michigan, I still think they're a better fit than Maryland (and their supremely weak OL) and Illinois, who refused to throw the football to a comical extent. So we're rolling with the Buckeyes, but are going to remain cognizant about the issues in comparability that pop up. 

Personnel: Seth's chart. 

Personnel: PSU's defensive ends are the strength of the defense, with Arnold Ebiketie on one side and Jesse Luketa on the other, both of whom are great players. Nick Taburton and Smith Vilbert (great name) are the reserve pass rushers who rotate in, but the big dogs get most of the attention. On the contrary, it's the interior defensive line that is the weakness of the defense since the injury of PJ Mustipher. The reason the Mustipher loss is so massive is because while Derrick Tangelo can hang in there as a nose tackle, Dvon Ellies and Coziah Izzard are both horrendous tackles and have emerged as a major weak spot. 

At the LB level, PSU runs out returning starters Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith, pairing them with new starter Curtis Jacobs. Those three rarely rotate, with Charlie Katshir occasionally getting in, but otherwise it's the three LB starters getting almost all of the snaps. 

The secondary is similarly stable, with forever Nittany Lion Tariq Castro-Fields starting at one corner spot for the 17th straight year (not exact numbers), while Joey Porter Jr. starts at the other corner position. Daequan Hardy is the nickel and then Johnny Dixon is the fourth corner who rotates in occasionally when they need extra DB bodies. Jaquan Brisker is another star at the SS position, someone who is getting legitimate NFL Draft hype. Ji'Ayir Brown is the other starting safety, getting the start at the FS position. Jon Sutherland and Keaton Ellis are the third and fourth options on the depth chart, but Brisker and Brown get the most snaps by a considerable margin. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Good defense? Or bad defense?]