The Pep Talk We All Need

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

Let's be clear here. Yesterday sucked. It was disheartening to see the offense, special teams, coaching, and run defense all have games ranging from sub-par to disastrous. I'm not here to convince you that any of that didn't happen or isn't concerning going forward. I'm not here to convince you that we will be favorites in the Ohio State game.

 

But this is still a great team. This still has the potential to be a GREAT season. And, god dammit, we are not going to give up on our team just because we lost by one point in a road, night, trap game. We are better than that. Bailing is for Buckeyes.

 

So, I have 5 points to remind you why IT IS (still) GREAT TO BE A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!

 

 

#1) Michigan is the only team in the Big Ten that 100% controls its destiny for BOTH the Big Ten Championship and the Playoff. 

  • Literally nothing changes for us. We had to beat Ohio State to accomplish our goals and we still do. It was fanciful to think of other scenarios to get in, but guess what? OSU was never going to lose to the Spartans and an 11-1 Michigan that lost to OSU in Columbus would've been passed by at least one of Louisville and Washington. 
  • Ohio State's Big Ten title hopes are all but dashed. They will likely be in the playoff if they win out by convincing margins, but it's definitely not a sure thing; if Washington slaughters Top 25 WSU and Top 10 Colorado and Wisconsin demolishes Penn State, Buckeyes could be toast. Championships matter. 
  • Penn State may have the best raw odds to win the East, but they don't control their own destiny and would need help getting to the playoff even if they do win out. 
  • Wisconsin controls their Big Ten destiny, and likely their playoff destiny as well, but it's not a certainty like it is for UM. An OSU blowout of UM plus a close Wisconsin win over PSU likely keeps the Buckeyes ahead of the Badgers and Washington would be favored over them too. 

 

#2) As of this upcoming Tuesday, Michigan will be the only team in the United States with 3 victories over top 10 teams. 

  • Michigan has beaten three top ten 8-2 teams (Penn State, Colorado and Wisconsin), all by margins/statistics ranging from convincing to dominating. On top of that, Michigan is the only contender in America that, if it wins out, will get the chance to play two more Top 10 teams in the regular season. 
  • Alabama has zero wins over teams that are poised to be ranked in the Top Ten this week, and it will likely head to bowl season with that fact still intact. 
  • Ohio State has two Top Ten wins (Oklahoma and Wisconsin). 
  • Clemson has one Top Ten win (Louisville) and has no more opportunities to play even a Top 15 team this season/in the championship. 
  • Louisville has zero Top Ten wins and will not get the chance for one. 
  • Washington has zero Top Ten wins and will only get the chance for one more. 

 

#3) Seven of the last ten teams to win National Championships have lost a regular season game, including both teams to win the College Football Playoff. 

  • It's really difficult to go undefeated. Urban Meyer hasn't done it at Ohio State (sorry, 2012 doesn't count because they didn't get to face a team in Indy or a bowl). 3/4 of Saban's national championship teams at Alabama had a loss. It's not the end of the world. 

 

#4) Every contender has had bad games this year, most of which were worse than Michigan's last night. 

  • Alabama was losing by a touchdown at halftime against Ole Miss and only wound up winning by 5 points. 
  • Ohio State lost to Penn State and followed it up with an extremely narrow 4 point home win over Northwestern. 
  • Clemson lost at home to Pittsburgh and should've lost at home to North Carolina State (won in OT after NC state missed two short field goals in regulation). In addition to these two games, 4 of their other wins came by 6 points or less (at home to Troy, @Florida State, at home against Louisville, and @Auburn). 
  • Washington just lost by double digits, at home to USC. 
  • Louisville lost to Clemson, and more importantly, was losing late into the fourth quarter against 2-8 Virginia, a team much, much worse than Iowa in an environment 1/100th as hostile. 
  • Wisconsin and Penn State both lost to yours truly, and had another one on top of that. 

 

#5) Calm down about Ohio State

  • Yes, we will be underdogs. Yes, it will be hard to win in Columbus. Yes, last year was a PTSD-inducing nightmare. But this is the greatest rivalry in college football. They have had just as many struggles as we have had this year. Overall, our resumes are still totally even. Have some belief. 
  • Last year obviously was horrific for Michigan in The Game. But the people saying "OSU is definitely going to play their best against us, as always!!!"  are wrong. MSU is the rival that does that (including this year), not OSU.
  • 75% of Urban's games against the Wolverines, including both played in Columbus, have seen OSU teams underperform and Michigan teams over perform. 
  • In 2012, a 12-0 OSU team was losing at home to an 8-4 Michigan team at the half, and only managed to escape by 5 points after not being able to score a TD in the second.

  • In 2013, a top 10 OSU team let a previously anemic Michigan offense (which lost in Iowa City) score 41 points and was a shitty 2 point playcall from being defeated by a 7-5 caliber team.

  • In 2014, a 5-7 Michigan team was tied at halftime in Columbus, tied a minute before the 4th quarter started and it was a one score game until there were 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter; this was against an OSU team won the national championship. 

  • In 2015, a previously undefeated team from the state of Michigan went to the far western reaches of the conference in early November, lost to a team worse than Iowa 2016 and then won in Columbus exactly two years later against an OSU team that had blown everyone out in the weeks immediately prior to that game. 

  • Yes, we lost all three, but there is a big difference now: those Michigan teams had nowhere near the talent and coaching this one does. 

 

Have some hope, there is a lot of football left to be played. There are other threads for the negative stuff, leave them out of here. 

 

Beat Indiana!

Beat Ohio!

 

KEEP CALM

AND 

GO BLUE!

AmayzNblue

November 13th, 2016 at 3:45 PM ^

Excellent post. Would totally posbang you with points if I were not on my mobile (and if I did not hold a personal policy of never banging dudes named Spike)



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Red is Blue

November 13th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^

I don't want to see this happen (for obvious reasons), but it would be really interesting to see if the committee would choose a one loss OSU who didn't play in its conference championship game or a 2 loss B1G champ.

TecmoLegend

November 13th, 2016 at 4:20 PM ^

Like everyone else...I'm certainly disappointed and frustrated about last night, But last night there was some epic complaining going around here.  You nicely laid out the facts...we control our own destiny and I'm pretty sure that is all the coaches and players care about.  Want to be a champion?  Win!  

One more thing...isn't this why we love college football?  I hate the losing, but it's the fact that each game matters so much.  I love the joy and anguish of watching this team each week.  I care about how things turn out.  College football is so much better than the NFL.  Each win is so much sweeter and each loss hurts more.  I'll take it.  

Kick Indiana's butt and then let's have some fun in Ohio. 

 

 

BleedThatBlue

November 13th, 2016 at 4:43 PM ^

Could not agree more. So many people are grabbing the pitchforks and saying this team wasn't good. Three years ago, the fan base was just hoping to be a competent BIG team. UM has 9 NFL draft picks. For everyone to be jumping ship is absolutely ridiculous. Why can't UM pull an OSU and beat the living shit out of the following teams they face?? So many downers.



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I Want To Believe

November 13th, 2016 at 5:31 PM ^

This team is good. This season has been awesome. To me though, only one game matters. We have lost that game, what, 10 out of the last 11 not including the one they had to forfeit. I would rather go 9-3 and beat osu than 11-1 and lose to them. It seems like anytime we have a team worthy of beating them we find out our team isn't up for the task. It's like we are physically incapable of beating them no matter what. It's maddening. They catch all the breaks. They always out recruit us no matter how good our class is. I'm sick of it. I can't even watch that game anymore bc I hate Ohio so much.

Sorry I'm not an eternal optimist, but losing every year to your rival has me thinking negatively bc Idk how many more straight losses I can stomach to these guys.

It took the 2011 sugar bowl team everything they had to beat the worst osu team in 25 years with a terrible HC. We lose to Kirk ferentz and a system they haven't changed in 10" years lol and you want me to be optimistic about our chances of winning in the shoe? Lmao



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yooper_blue

November 13th, 2016 at 5:17 PM ^

The thing that is the most confusing is that they look like a completely different team on the road. I mean, I know playing on the road is tough, but come on. They don't even look like the same team. Even when they played state as well.



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SpikeFan2016

November 13th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

Not really. 

  1. We looked as good against Rutgers on the road as we did against other bottom dwellers at home. 
  2. MSU was nowhere near as close as the score indicated. We were leading 30-10 until very late 4th quarter garbage time; MSU never had a real chance at winning that game after the first quarter. 
  3. Yes Iowa was bad, but that's only one game. Sample size is too small. Yesterday was also the first Big Ten road game Harbaugh has lost. His other wins include Happy Valley and East Lansing, two of the 6 hardest places to play (haven't played in Lincoln, Madison or Columbus yet). 

1WhoStayed

November 13th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

In 2015, a previously undefeated team from the state of Michigan went to the far western reaches of the conference in early November, lost to a team worse than Iowa 2016 and then won in Columbus exactly two years later against an OSU team that had blown everyone out in the weeks immediately prior to that game.

I had to read this 3 times to figure out that you ARE from the future and Michigan beats OSU in 2017! That's great news. (But I am confused as to why the game was moved to C-bus.)

But more importantly, did we win at OSU in 2016 and did we go to the playoffs!?

Did we "lock her up"? (too soon?)

DId MSU go to a bowl ga - nevermind!

Did Harbaugh go to the NFL?

Did my girlfriend stop seeing the UPS guy?

Did my wife stop seeing the FedEx guy?  (Hey, that explains the crazy Amazon bill!)

(Not being a smart ass. Just trying to lighten the tone on the board!)

1WhoStayed

November 13th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^

Posted this earlier today:

"Wilton was bad but if 82 makes a catch on either of the 2 that hit him in the chest..."

LMAO. Dumb ass doesn't even know who Darboh is!

Yeah - Looking at you Jason.

And I'm pretty sure Darboh didn't have 2 passes hit him in the chest. But I didn't have the benefit of a decent replay being at Kinnick.

BTW - The Big House rocks! But I'd like IOWA to manage our concessions!

Durham Blue

November 13th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

I am on board with optimism.  Losing to a mediocre team sucks when everyone has such high aspirations.  But we'll bounce back.  I think the Iowa game brought invaluable experience.  There is NO way Iowa pushes us around the way they did if every guy was playing with a high intensity level and focus.  We lost that intensity yesterday and rightfully lost.  And that stings a lot.  But I think a wake up call was needed after so many easy victories.

Also, this is college football where great coaching matters a lot.  We have great coaching.  Although he would never say it, I think we all know that Harbaugh has had the OSU game circled on his calendar.  We'll be playing for a CFP spot.  We'll be ready.  I believe this year's Game will look nothing like last year.

mgoDAB

November 13th, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^

Remember how we responded the last time we took a tough loss? We played our best overall game of the season and beat the living shit out of Florida. Yeah Florida, bowl practices, blah blah. But Coach Harbaugh has been through this at Michigan and in the NFL as both a player and coach. Keep the faith and Go Blue.

drzoidburg

November 13th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^

Yeah, not every year can be 1997. I still think as punishment, we should have to schedule North Dakota St for next year. But it's still been the best season in a decade and two years ago i could not have imagined this. We'll head to the last game with a chance at the conference title and playoff. Hard to ask for more

APGOBLUE

November 13th, 2016 at 8:53 PM ^

reading every point of that was like watching rocky 4 when he's choping the russian down with each fist then finally he goes down and everyone cheers! seriously though good to hear some optimism! Go Blue!

Soulfire21

November 14th, 2016 at 9:51 AM ^

I made the trip out to Iowa City and this is pretty much why, despite the loss, I was in good spirits about it. Virtually nothing changes except now we absolutely can't lose to Indiana (which, if we were to lose to Indiana at home we've got some other issues).

It was disheartening to see so many things go against UM and the passing game go anemic, but even very good teams play bad games every once and a while.