OT: (Jay) Paterno explains Alabama's success
Jay Paterno provides his take on why Alabama has experienced such a run of success over the past 4-5 years. I'm not sure I disagree with any of his points although he never brings up the spector of oversigning. I did think it was LOL that credit for Bama playing in the NC this year is credited in part to Jim Delany and Gene Smith.
http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/jay-paterno-the-crimson-high-tide-explained-1218547/
January 11th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 10:51 AM ^
I'd rather never hear from him or his family again...
January 11th, 2013 at 11:34 AM ^
I have no comprehension of how he has a job in State College, let alone one in the public limelight!! How the heck is a newspaper (online or otherwise) paying him to write for the public??
January 11th, 2013 at 3:19 PM ^
would he not be able to have a job?
January 11th, 2013 at 11:15 AM ^
People whose success is based on covering up child rape to ensure program stability should keep their mouths shut.
January 11th, 2013 at 10:54 AM ^
I think there might be some truth to # of plays and fatigue issues and injury prevention. Obviously, if Team A is running 20 more plays per game than Team B, there are more opportunities for Team A players to be injured.
January 11th, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^
I disagree with his point about a relatively low number of plays. Alabama is the most talented team on the field in nearly every game they play, usually by a fairly wide margin. The more plays run, means the more opportunities for that talent advantage to manifest itself on the scoreboard. As more plays are run, there is a decrease in the likelihood that a fluke occurence will dictate the end result in the game. A good example of an underdog attempting to use this to their advantage is the strategy Nebraska recently used against our basketball team.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:22 AM ^
True, but if you run fewer plays, you have less of a chance for injury. Running more plays may be beneficial in the context of one game, but may not be in the context of an entire season.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:31 AM ^
I agree, and I think there is a point of diminishing returns where each additional play increases the risk of injury by more than it help decrease variance. This depends on how deep a team is at any given position. For example, with how thin our offensive line was this year, almost any injury was devastating, so running those extra plays was probably not worth it. However, in a few years (given the way we have been stockpiling o-lineman), that point of diminishing return will likely move. Obviously this applies to the depth at every position, offensive line was just my example here.
January 11th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
1. Plays. Alabama plays a deliberate ball-control offense, keeping the number of plays low. More games are lost by mistakes than are won by great plays. Less plays means less chances for errors and less fatigue on the bodies over a year. Alabama ran 898 offensive plays and defended 837. Those 1,735 total plays are more than 300 fewer than Oregon ran (in one less game). Alabama’s defense averaged less than 60 plays per game, Oregon’s almost 76. For the past four seasons Alabama’s defense has been on the field for less than 60 plays a game. Guess who led the nation in total defense and hoisted the crystal football — again?
This is so absolutely asinine and against reality it's absurd. The better team should want more possessions, not fewer, in order to reduce variance. How often does an inferior team win or tie the first half then get blown out in the second? How often does the reverse happen? Exactly.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:04 AM ^
I do agree that on a game-by-game basis, a vastly more talented team like Bama would want more possessions and agree with your comparison to Nebraska's strategy the other night in basketball.
But I think there might be some validity to fatigue over the course of the year...especially in a sport as physically demanding as football (which is much more physically demanding than basketball because of the punishment the body takes).
January 11th, 2013 at 11:11 AM ^
Maybe against teams like Wofford and South Alabama it would be beneficial for 'Bama to run more plays to reduce variance but against similarly talented teams like Georgia, LSU, etc the grind it out style works. Nothing is worse for your defense than to have a three and out with 3 straight incompletions.
When you have thoroughbreads you let them run. You don't enter them into the steeplechase even if it is flashier.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:15 AM ^
Who said more plays means more passing plays? They could be running plays too. Oregon probably runs more plays per game than anyone, and they certainly don't pass the ball every down.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^
True but at the pace Oregon runs plays at not much time is coming off the clock in between snaps.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:22 AM ^
While statistical analysis says that you want more plays to reduce variance, this is an absolutely ridiculous argument when it comes to football. You want your defense on the field for as few plays as possible, and a ball control offense helps with that.
Also, you want to play a style of football that minimizes the risks you take on each play, as turnovers and mistakes are often the reason for upsets. 'Bama does all that.
So bring up stats if you want to; as usual, academic theory fails to produce results in the real world. You simply can't argue with 'Bama's success.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^
Alabama also has a more talent than most teams. It's hard to say which theory is better because teams are not equal. I agree that it's hard to argue with Bama's success, but it's hard to argue with Oregon's success too, and they don't recruit nearly as well as the Tide.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:37 AM ^
In this case more is a relative term.
Is Alabama more talented than FCS schools? No question, clear as day.
Is Alabama more talented than top SEC schools? Debatable.
To me the recipe for consistent success is simple. Elite defense in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme and a power run game with a devastating play action passing game. Sounds like 1997 Michigan to me.
January 11th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^
Per Scout, the following is the the average national recruiting class ranking for the top SEC recruiters for the past five years:
Alabama: 3.2
LSU: 6.4
Georgia: 9.8
Auburn: 10
Florida: 14.6
January 11th, 2013 at 11:52 AM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
This is the correct answer. Bo used to say "If they can score they can't win".
How many times did the offense stalling out burn us during the RR era.
Methinks too painful to remember.
January 11th, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^
You misread my comment. I said more POSSESSIONS, not more plays. I made no statement on running lightning fast offense vs what Bama does. Obviously [one of] the best outcome(s) is 12play TD drives and then getting 3 and outs on defense.
Who here wouldn't prefer if The Horror was a 65 minute game for more possessions? Right, that's everyone. That's my point, it has nothing to do wtih lightning offense or not.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^
Any one of my friends could have come up with most of that list when we were 5th graders.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:11 AM ^
I agree with most everything he wrote. While the "sexy" spread offense continues to dominate as college football's trend, blocking and tackling are still winning national championships. It's worth noting that both ND and 'Bama run a lot of power running plays and are built around strong defenses.
I'm certainly not implying that spread offenses don't work or can't work, but the fact is that the game still (and will always) comes down to fundamentals, and while a system can mask flaws, it can't hide them from elite competition.
The good news is that all signs point to Hoke building a program that is similar to 'Bama: strong defense is the focal point, and constructing a monster O-line is the key on that side of the ball. This opens up the deep pass--something Borges has demonstrated that he is not afraid to use (once DG was in the game)--and forces the defense to pick its poison.
I can't wait to see Michigan grow into a juggernaught. I strongly believe we'll be better than we've been in 50 years (as a program; obviously '97 was an amazing year) by 2015.
GO BLUE!
January 11th, 2013 at 11:36 AM ^
I think he missed the point that Alabama's schedule spreads the non-conference cupcakes throughout the season to break up the conference gauntlet. Besides Michigan in week 1, Bama played W. Kentucky in week 2, Florida Atlantic in week 4 (after an SEC game), and Western Carolina in week 11. Another sign that the SEC conference "gets it" and will help their teams be successful as opposed to the B1G spending all their time and resources coming up with logos and division names.
January 11th, 2013 at 11:39 AM ^
Courtesy of oversigning.com
This...
2011
| PLAYER | POSITION | REASON FOR LEAVING AFTER NSD |
|---|---|---|
| Glenn Harbin | Defensive Line | Decided to play baseball; Link |
| Demetrius Goode | Running Back | Transfer to North Alabama; Link |
| Petey Smith | Linebacker | Transfer to Holems CC; Link |
| Brandon Moore | Defensive Lineman | Transfer to East Mississippi Community College; Link |
| Corey Grant | Running Back | Transfer to Auburn; Link |
| Keiwone Malone | Wide Receiver | Transfer to Memphis; Link |
| Robby Green | Defensive Back | Transfer to California University of Pennsylvania ; Link |
| Darrington Sentimore | Defensive Lineman | Transfer to Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College Link |
| Arron Douglas | Offensive Lineman | Died during offseason; RIP, hate having to list him here. |
| Kerry Murphy | Defensive Line | Medical Hardship |
| Kendall Kelly | Defensive Back | Medical Hardship |
| Wes Neighbors | Defensive Back | Medical Hardship |
Plus this...
2010
| PLAYER | POSITION | REASON FOR LEAVING AFTER NSD |
|---|---|---|
| Terry Grant | Running Back | Scholarship not renewed |
| Travis Sikes | Wide Receiver | Scholarship not renewed |
| Rod Woodson | Safety | Scholarship not renewed |
| Star Jackson | Quarterback | Transfer, Georgia State Div 1AA. |
| Deion Belue | Defensive Back | Academically Ineligible; headed to JUCO |
| Alfy Hill | Linebacker | Academically Ineligible; future unknown |
| Taylor Pharr | Offensive Lineman | Medical Hardship |
| Milton Talbert | Linebacker | Medical Hardship |
| Darius McKeller | Offensive Lineman | Medical Hardship |
| Ronnie Carswell | Wide Receiver | Greyshirt |
| Wilson Love | Defensive End | Greyshirt |
Equals this:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:48 AM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 12:07 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 12:14 PM ^
I'm going to repeat what one of the commenters said; "Having 135 Scholarship recruits over the past 5 years doesn't hurt."
Plus he says Alabama's offense is more explosive than Oregon's, despite Oregon's #5 ranking. Yeah, by a whopping three tenths of a yard. Then there's the whole manball v. the spread thing that has been beaten to death, which by the way, didn't you run the so called "Spread HD" with Robinson and Clark as your QB's? And nevermind the fact that you poached a QB from Michigan that was recruited to play in the spread (How did that work out BTW?).
I think too much is being said about scheme in football and not the coaching up of players, and game time preparartion which he and his staff quite frankly, are masterful at.
Lastly, it seems that in the midst of all the slobbering Alabama is receiving because of their success as of late, people are forgetting that they do in fact have two championship seasons in which they have one loss; much to the chagrin of other teams with one loss that could have made a case for a MNC berth.
January 11th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
They win over and over again by:
1. recruiting top talent at every position (however it is the SEC does it)
2. developing top high school talent into NFL talent (effective coaching)
3. playing great (low risk) defense (focusing on taking away the run and letting their skilled backfield minimize big passing plays without a lot of blitzing)
4. having a simple, yet meticulous and effective, (low risk) offense. (Focusing on establishing the run to control the clock, wear down the opposing defense, and set up the passing game)
There's nothing fancy or sexy about Alabama football, except they win all the time. Oregon is the fancy and flashy team, yet in Bowl games they're 2-2 under Chip Kelly. They were handled by both OSU and Auburn, then they only just beat Wisconsin in a shootout, and handled an inferior KState. They play with a ton of risk, and leave many things to chance, don't play great defense, and give opponents plenty of possesions. Alabama is almost the opposite of Oregon, but the results speak for themselves.
January 11th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^
The game was tied and Auburn kicked a game wining field goal from the 2 yard line. I remember because i had big bucks on Oregon covering a 3 point spread and I got a push. I thought for sure Auburn would have had Cam Newton sneak (fall forward he is 6'6") it in for a TD.
January 11th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^
None of this works if Alabama doesn't cheat to amass the most impressive group of personnel in college football. None of it works if they aren't automatically ranked the highest in the group of teams that has its number of losses.
Jay's analysis makes it painfully obvious why he his coaching career never took off, despite having some of the greatest connections in the business.
January 11th, 2013 at 3:26 PM ^
for their success (and LSU, FLA, UGA) over the last 7 years. Alabama, though, is dominating because they sign a top 5 class every year and simply have ridiculous talent.
However, Jay Paterno composed one of the least insightful memos conceivable. It reads like a blog from a sophomore in college rather than an experienced coach from a major program. They're great because they Stop the Run and because They Run the Ball? Tripe and trite.
If this rambling mess represents his "thinking on how to build a great program", then no one should hire him. Utter dribble.
January 11th, 2013 at 4:16 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 5:12 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 6:35 PM ^
January 12th, 2013 at 11:43 PM ^
I believe that manball or the spread can work with the right personnel. Paterno seems to be saying that only a run-focused pro style system can will national championships. As I recall, Urban Meyer won 2 national championships at Florida running a spread.
It seems to me that there's no question that the spread can be successful. Meyer, Chip Kelly, and Mike Leach have proven that.
A more interesting question is whether offensive style affects recruiting. In other words, are there elite receivers, running backs etc. who favor pro style over spread in their college choice to maximize their NFL prospects.