NEMIndex and Marble game week 7
Someone linked this site a couple weeks ago and I, being the nerd that I am, thought it was pretty interesting. In the marble game State is ranked ahead of Michigan, I'm assuming because they got to a lot of the shared opponents first.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I think you've lost your marbles...
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
Fair.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
Yeah my best guess is the earlier losses by our opponents. Michigan State got more from Nebraska than we did since they played earlier, and Wisconsin and Washington coming in with two and one loss didn't do us any favors, either.
Overall it's an interesting concept, but the rigid rules take some of the nuance out of the analysis...
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
Marble game? What does this index attempt to measure?
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^
It measures if you've lost yours.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
Assume every team starts with X marbles. Each win gives you a percentage of the opponents marbles. Ranks are determined by total number of held marbles. There was a post explaining the game in better details in a prior post. I’ll see if I can dig it up.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
Every team starts the season with 100 marbles, plus 10 marbles for each P5 team on the schedule. Win at home (or neutral site), you get 20% of your opponent's marbles. Win on the road, you get 25%. Any explanation you can make in one breath is a good explanation.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
Found the guy who created the Marbles index.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
Interesting approach. Another method to determining the likelihood of an outcome is “Njia’a Pucker Factor.” On a scale of 1-10, the MSU game has NPF at an 11.3. For those games, I usually have plenty of benzos on hand.
October 22nd, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
Staee ranked ahead of Michigan in marbles...
Kinda checks out.
October 22nd, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
So it was less damaging for Iowa to lose badly at home to a Purdue team whose recruiting rankings have been in the 30s/50s/70s than it was for Alabama to lose on the road via a last-second FG to a team whose recruiting classes have been in the top ten for the last several years.
How does that suggest that Iowa has played better than Alabama?
October 22nd, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
Don - Not following you. Don’t Iowa and Alabama both get 0 points for a loss?
October 22nd, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
I followed the link, and I'm not seeing what you describe. In the Week 7 index, Michigan is ranked second to Georgia and MSU is 12th.
What's the difference between the Marble Index and the Marble Game?
October 22nd, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
Ditto - I thought I would see a quantity of marbles, but see Michigan at #2 with a ranking number.
EDIT: Click through to the IowaHawkBlog to see the Marble Game ranking.
October 22nd, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
Here is another totally different way of tracking wins and losses and identifying the Champion of NCAA Football that I recently ran across on the Interwebs. The website starts with Princeton v Rutgers in 1869 and tracks the winner like a Boxing Title that can only be earned through victory over the reigning champ. By this measure, the current master of the "Elder Wand" of Football is Texas A&M.
http://shepard.mysite.com/blank_1.html
In case you're interested, Michigan has held the Title nine times, the most recent being in 2003 with a win over Purdue, losing it to USC in the Rose Bowl.
October 22nd, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
My algorithm for power ratings thru week 7 shows this:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati
5. Michigan
6. Iowa State
7. Florida
8. Penn State
9. Notre Dame
10. Utah
...
22. Michigan State
October 22nd, 2021 at 4:43 PM ^
Late season wins have a huge payoff yeah?